22Inside's Betting Evolution

[heavy]

I like it. I love the HUGE wins that come with power pressing early, and just today I received an e-mail form a student who'd scored a very nice win using one of my strategies he'd picked up off the URComped video series I did on Power Pressing. Yeah, he's ruined for life. LOL. But even I have slowed down my press moves this year after running up against a bit of a brick wall the last couple months last year and having a bit of a slow start this year.

Biloxi still throws me for a loop the first couple of days every year - even though I've been dealing with that automatic buy bet on the five and nine in Mississippi for 20 plus years now. And that's part of the problem that comes with having all of this stuff down by rote for the other 50 weeks of the year when you're NOT playing in Mississippi. It not only causes you problems until you get re-acclimated to the Biloxi (or Tunica) tables - you wind up getting pissed off at the casinos when you make your next trip to Vegas AFTER playing in Mississippi because the games in Nevada are so much WORSE.

Anyway, I'm liking the play. Particularly the first five steps. Looking forward to the Pumpkins.

[DanF]

Great thinking, but I think you leave way too much on the tables on shorter hands.

Understand you want to go for the prize, but maths hurt you big time at 3-4-7 repeater most time...gotta take it into account.

I'm working on new stuff I like, but the perfect system will never exist tho.

You should wargame to 5 hit press and double collect at some point IMHO

[Tgold]

Heavys says:
"...when you're NOT playing in Mississippi. It not only causes you problems until you get re-acclimated to the Biloxi (or Tunica) tables - you wind up getting pissed off at the casinos when you make your next trip to Vegas AFTER playing in Mississippi because the games in Nevada are so much WORSE.."

I agree 1000%(Mississippi offers best gaming environment--(Biloxi is Primo), A fair run for your money with the finest/friendliest dealers & local patrons any where.

[grinder2017]

I gotta agree with Tgold. With Biloxi I don't care if I every go back to Vegas. Bilox Baby!
Cheers
Grinder

[DanF]

As DI's we are constantly learning and refining our tosses and betting strategies, or at least we should be. I'm certainly no different. This is a never ending journey not just something where you reach a pinnacle and go stagnant. I'm starting this thread to keep track and discuss either major changes or refinements to my primary betting strategy on myself and a few other very trusted DI's that I can probably count on one hand. For other DI's I'm dialing things back a bit, including qualifying them before betting. Of course randies are a different animal altogether, extremely conservative, either no bet, OHCM or dark side plays.

So to that end, I've been working on refining my primary betting strategy the past couple of weeks. This has been driven from two primary things. Some recent toss tweaks to correct some flaws that had crept in and led to a fairly long stretch of ugly hands and results both at home practice and out in the wild have really reached a point where I am comfortable with them have changed my signature numbers. For a long time, I was an even numbers shooter but with this new toss I'm pounding away at the inside numbers more often than not. The other thing was that I was looking to get a little more aggressive in my betting, as another side effect of how I was betting previously during my toss troubles had turned really conservative to the point where it felt like I was playing scared. Finally, I had also come up with a hardway strategy that I wanted to incorporate into my betting.

So, out with the 44/66 even numbers strategy and in with the new.

The new strategy that has been wargaming pretty well the past few weeks in my home practice sessions has three components to it. I start out with $96 across and $1 on the hardways, with an intent to get to two hits and regress on the 4 and 10. Assuming a $10 table, this works out to an initial outlay of $110 (if the point is 4 or 10, where I use $15 odds), $112 (if the point is 6 or 8, where I use $20 odds) or $115 (if the point is 5 or 9 where I use $20 odds)

Once the hand starts, the first phase is a two hits of same bet play and then pull down the 4 and 10. If the point it 4 or 10, then I go to 3 hits to pay for the PL odds on the point. Tosses of inside numbers automatically count towards the 2 or 3 same bet hits. If I toss a 4 or 10, the initial hit on that number I press to $25 and rack the rest, which pays for that number and I will not regress on it. If I get subsequent hits on a pressed up 4 or 10 while in this first phase, I same bet it and count that hit towards the 2/3 hits I'm looking for to reach my regression point. Once I reach my regression point, I pull down any unpressed 4 or 10 place bets. The hardway bets stay up.

This brings me to the second phase. Here, I'm looking to get to green chip territory on the inside numbers. On the first hit of an inside number, I press it and its sister number to green chip bets. For a hit on 5 or 9, I press both to $25 and rack $1. For 6 or 8, I drop $3 and take both to $30. If I toss a 4 or 10 at this point, I place it for $10, if I'm not in a profit position for the hand yet or $15 if I'm in a profit position. If the 4 or 10 is already pressed up to $25 from a hit in the first phase, I same bet it until I reach a profit position for the hand. Once I'm in green chip territory for the inside numbers, I move to the last stage of the strategy.

This last stage of the strategy is where I start pressing numbers as they hit. I am pressing numbers individually. I use the following press schedules now:

4/10 (unchanged from how I've always bet them): 25 50 100 200 400 800 1500 2500 5000
5/9: 25 35 50 75 100 150 250 350 500 750 1000...
6/8: 30 42 60 90 120 180 300 420 600 900 1200...

I've abandoned the collect/press portions of my previous inside press schedules and now just press up a little and rack some on each hit.

As for the hardway portion of this, I'm starting with $1 on each. On each subsequent easy way hit, I increase the bet on that hardway up $1. If I toss a hardway, I parlay up to a max of $25 for a hit on 6/8 and rack any remainder (thus $1 parlay to $10, $2 parlays to $20, $3 goes to $25 and I rack $5). For hardway hits on 4 or 10, I parlay up to a max of $16 and rack any remainder (so, $1 parlay to $8, $2 parlay to $16, $3 press to $15 and rack $9). If I toss an easy number on a pressed up hardway, I rebet it at $1 for each hit to that point. If I toss any back to back hardways, I basically double the bet on each subsequent hit and rack the rest.

So this sounds fairly complicated but I think it strikes a decent balance of moderately conservative play up front through the regression and build up to green chip level stages but also gets me to a position where I can take reasonable advantage of a mid length hand to make some profits and the press schedules are consistent enough to really fill the rack if I happen to catch a monster or really light up a particular number. It's also flexible enough to allow me to play into hands where I start tossing 4's or 10's instead of sitting around TUMA on them.

In practice, its worked out pretty well so far. I'm reaching the regression point a good number of times which reduces the shortfall to a reasonable amount on short hands that don't progress beyond that level. As with any strategy, I take a pretty good whack if I PSO or don't reach that initial regression point. I'm getting through the build out phase to green chip level on a good number of hands too since it's generally only a couple of extra tosses with the initial pressing of sister numbers on the first hit. I'm tossing a fair number of mid length hands of >10 rolls at this point that turn hands profitable and once I get beyond hands of high teens/low 20's the returns are decent compared to my prior betting and press schedules.

Comments and feedback are welcome.

I've wargamed a lot of strats over the years, I realised a few things, I think yours is a great base, but you make the same error I did for a lot of em.

Not collect more then I leave on table, wanting to pass from low denominations to high payouts every hands.

It is a great strategy for a day you're killing it, but it will hurt your bank overtime on shorter rolls.

You better plan on growing your bankroll overtime and not from a single roll.

If you go
30-30-42-60-60...short hands will build you up overtime to get to the 60 level and then 120 level where you will then make bank. If you do have the skill to kill the tables.

Accumulating more paying 12-20 rolls will outpay hitting one good hand overtime. I made almost +25k on a year I was killing tables from 500-1500 win sessions...

[stingray]

Has anyone thought of practicing with a n95 mask on their face? In some places it has become mandatory to wear a mask if you want to go into a grocery store so why would it be different entering a casino. Who knows what the rules will be.
I like your balanced betting method since we have to be in the game when that longer hand happens.

[House of Orange]

I sure hope everyone wears a mask, at first, should be mandatory for casino entrance. N95 is probably overkill and a pain in the ass to communicate with.

[stratocasterman]

I'm curious to know why you bet the 4 & 10, if the 5, 6,8 and 9 are your new signature numbers? Maybe I've missed something here 22Inside. Maybe the thought is to just bet across exclusively and I missed the boat here.

I would think that it would be more to your "advantage" to place that 4 & 10 money on your signature numbers early on. Regress quicker if you like or even expand out to the 4 & 10 after racking up some substantial hits on the signature numbers.

[heavy]

From what I've read so far it's looking like many casinos will require employees and card table game players to wear masks when the casinos first reopen. There has also been talk about not allowing players to handle chips, which will be interesting to see. There will certainly be a new learning curve for everyone if that chip part is the case. PLUS, if casinos put up a plastic shield between players and dealers AND require both to wear face masks - how the heck will anyone communicate? With flash cards? Sign language? Electronic buttons? Now we're back to playing electronic games. I don't know, but someone had better sort it out soon. In Vegas, all sorts of entrepreneurs are cranking out prototype protective shields for table games and trying to hawk them to the casinos. There's a new start-up industry coming out of this mess.

[stingray]

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/video-sh ... 1dcd2.html


Here are some of the sneeze guard dividers at the card tables in Louisisna. Maybe we will have to re invent our basic toss since there might be a skinny slot where you put your hand through to toss the dice. There goes getting your shoulder over the dice. Maybe it will be a mechanical claw that you will use to pick up the dice so you don't get germs on the dice as well.

[heavy]

We're getting far afield from the original topic here. Back on 22 inside's betting evolution . . . I'm assuming you're betting the Four and Ten because the dice pre-set you're using tends to generate even numbers. I know when we play together I generally start out with $66 or $110 even numbers. Then, of course, the first thing you do is toss a Five or Nine. LOL. Frustrating as hell because I THINK after all this time I have your signature numbers figured out.

[stingray]

Collecting two paying hits is achievable. Then taking down the 4 & 10 to get a little more exposure off of the table is good. I understand working those inside numbers up to a green chip level and pressing. If an outside number shows up then you place it. In today's wargaming there were many collect one hit and then 7 out. Never got to taking down the 4 & 10 on quite a lot of hands but a few hands got to $90 6 & 8 but still think it was loss in the end due to those quicker 7 outs. You are definitely in the game to take advantage of those longer hands.

[220Inside]

We're getting far afield from the original topic here. Back on 22 inside's betting evolution . . . I'm assuming you're betting the Four and Ten because the dice pre-set you're using tends to generate even numbers. I know when we play together I generally start out with $66 or $110 even numbers. Then, of course, the first thing you do is toss a Five or Nine. LOL. Frustrating as hell because I THINK after all this time I have your signature numbers figured out.

Thanks for bringing yet another topic back on subject, Heavy.

You are exactly right. I'm still using 3V which I've historically thrown a lot of even numbers from. It's hard to resist the siren's call of those 4's and 10's when a single hit can pay for itself and still allow for a press move. This evolution in my betting strategy was a nod to acknowledging that I'm throwing a lot more 5's and 9's these days but can still get on streaks of 4's and 10's.

We will see how long I stay with this approach. But as always, I do not think we are ever done with tweaks to our toss or betting strategies. Both are always a work in progress. It can be easy to get into a rut with either one, refusing or reluctant to accept what the data is telling you and sticking with something you've been using for a long time.

[Big O]

I do not think we are ever done with tweaks to our toss or betting strategies.

if you are not doing this it probably means you are not practicing. If you are not practicing your DI skills will suffer.

[Tgold]

Hi 22Inside---Good thread/good explanation of all the stages(& your thought process for making various decision).
Good comments everyone.

For starters I like that it is mostly a pospro. I believe compounding is an excellent tool to help us offset our loses due to the house edge(not change the house edge--just helps mitigate the HE affect on our wager).

Second, I like that you have a very precise plan for the all the gyrations/stages, presses, regress, ..etc.

I feel many wagering strategies would perform better if we follow them exactly as designed and be willing to stick with a proven strategy (Even if it means losing our buyin every once in awhile).
I see too many players wager according to their pospro plan when losing/yet, abandon the progression when the solid hand comes along. We then not only endured the rough hands, we now have diluted the solid hand that would have swamped all the loses that occurred on the short hands...etc.

22Inside--Since I don't know your win goal its somewhat difficult to offer much of an opinion and certainly not suggest an improvement over what u are already demonstrating. I think you mentioned that on your personal rolls at home casino you had increased a $500 buyin to >$2K. That's very good for not having busted the BI yet.


My first thought was (too many wagers/too small BI for risk of $100 per ticket) as I felt you were diluting your shooting advantage. Then I saw what you said:
"...Once the hand starts, the first phase is a two hits of same bet play and then pull down the 4 and 10..."
I like that you are immediately trying to reduce the spread. If I recall you said your hands were producing the greatest H above expectation on the inside numbers. Without knowing which number is your signature number I would suggest that if either of your first two hits came on a 4 or 10 maybe consider keeping that one up /pulling or regressing two wagers that excludes your (signature number, Hit 1, Hit 2 numbers).
I like to play with the premise that everything being equal, and I don't know which order the numbers will show, that whatever just happened might happen again, vs an event that has not happened yet. Regardless, if its due to ones shooting skill, die nicked a chip stack, or just random independent event.

Re: Pressing. I like that you are trying to accelerate the wagers in their earlier stages vs latter. Have you considered parlaying the first two hits, and do your two-wager same bet on hits 3/4? My thinking is that on most of the short hands the $100 ticket will be lost/ the benefits of the early press will neutralize the sting when the hand does indeed get to the 5-7 range, and will pay significant dividends on the commonly seen >=10-12 hands. Maybe parlay first two hits: Hit1 parlay 50/50 to hit#/Signature number. 2nd Hit--parlay 33% to H1,H2,Sign#).
That's with my assumption that your biggest concern isn't the loss of a $500 buyin or $100 ticket (5x attempts). Just a passing thought.
Of course I know it wouldn't be called "22insides Evolution" if you start doing all of our suggested tweaks.

I feel the main benefits from compounding start producing at >=2nd hits and start generating enough to offset all the losses we receive on the non-successful presses at H1-to-H2(depending on press%), then its spinoff starts producing a return on hits 3rd,4th,5th...etc. We obviously don't know if our desired event is going to receive 1hit or 8hits, though we do know we will get significantly more 1-2hit repeaters and very frequently see a 3iar, occasionally a 4th hit, and very seldom see >8hit repeaters. As long as we get a 3rd or 4th repeater every once in awhile the consequence is minimal because from that stage onward the compounding is paying for the following press amounts.

Im in favor of accelerating our wagers in a decreasing % as a function of wager size not payout size.
In other words, the battle is won by the decisions we make between Hit1 and Hit2. IMO on wagers like (DP,PL. and Bac P/B..etc) , and even the inside#s, is that we see enough >=3hit repeaters to neutralize our loss from press#1. Of course we must be willing to endure the sting from the failed attempts, though I think its worth it.

Thx again 22inside--great detailed summary/appreciate you sharing. Sounds like a promising approach. Keep us posted.

Continued Success,

[220Inside]

Well, that $96 across betting strategy never made it out into the wild, thanks in large part to Covid. It started out looking very promising, but proved to be way too volatile over the longer haul. Short to medium hands were killers to the bankroll and were really difficult to recover from. So, onward and upward.

What Covid has allowed me is a ton of practice time. My on axis percentage has been consistently over 50%. My edge on inside numbers has upticked and I'm throwing fewer 4's and 10's. This has had an influence on this next evolution to my betting strategy.

The first thing I've done is to increase my buy in amount from $500 to $620, as I'm betting slightly more and I wanted the additional bankroll buffer. Instead of $96 across, I'm now starting out with $110 inside. Assuming a $10 table, that amounts to an initial outlay of $120 for a point of 6 or 8 (with $30 odds on the point), $125 for a point of 5 or 9 ($30 odds on the point) or $135 for a point of 4 or 10 ($15 odds on the point).

I'm going to continue with the three phase approach to the overall betting strategy that I found very helpful before.

In the first phase, I collect the first 3 hits, then regress to $66 inside. If I toss a 4 or 10 in this phase, I do not chase it with a place bet. If I make a point of 4 or 10, I'll replace it with a $25 bet after setting the next point. I do not count making a point of 4 or 10 towards the 3 hits before regressing. After reaching the regression point, I'm in a profit position. Getting to a profit position this early in the hand was one of my primary objectives. The amount of profit after reaching the regression point varies, depending on what numbers were hit to get me there. At a minimum, it's a $14 profit (set a point of 4 or 10, and collect 3 inside hits (racking $105) and $44 of regression). At the high end, I'm looking at $84 profit (setting and hitting 3 points of 5 or 9 (racking $165 and $44 of regression)

The second phase of this new strategy is how I'm dealing with the initial hits on numbers after the regression. The first hit on a 6 or 8, I'm power pressing to $42. The first hit on the sister number gets pressed to $30 (racking $9). For the initial hit on 5 or 9, I do a full press to $35 (rack $1). The first hit on the sister number gets pressed to $25. If I toss a 4 or 10 in this phase, I'll place it for $10 and press it to $15 after the next hit on an inside number.

For the third phase, I use the following press schedules:

4/10: 15 25 50 100 200 400 800 1500 2500 5000
5/9: (25) 35 50 75 100 150 (250) 350 500 750 1000 1500 (2500) 3500 5000
6/8: (30) 42 60 90 120 180 (300) 420 600 900 1200 1800 (3000) 4200 5000

The numbers in parenthesis are steps that I'll skip in the progression and power press to the next bet for the first number to hit at the previous level. For example, the first hit of a 6 or 8 at the $180 level, I'll power press to $420 (drop 30). A hit on the sister number at $180 will be pressed to $300.

This new approach has been a lot less volatile than the previous one as I'm getting to a profit position a lot quicker. As with any regression based strategy, the short hands sting, but I'm finding that recovery is easier also because of the early profit position allows to start chipping away at the loss. So far, so good.

As always, comments and feedback welcome.

[Big O]

It started out looking very promising, but proved to be way too volatile over the longer haul. Short to medium hands were killers to the bankroll and were really difficult to recover from.

This has been my practice experience as well. I have tired 96 across and even experimented with 160 across working on the comeout for one hit then down to 96 or 54. I actually am up on these sessions with one caveat. A couple of times i have been down to my last 100 dollars for 96 across before i came back. Something i would never do in live play. Thus i came to the same conclusion i cant stand the volatility. If i were to play today i would be conflicted on how to bet. Some type of more conservative across scheme. I cant seem to give up on missing the hits on the 4 and 10.

I like the press schedule.

[220Inside]

It started out looking very promising, but proved to be way too volatile over the longer haul. Short to medium hands were killers to the bankroll and were really difficult to recover from.

This has been my practice experience as well. I have tired 96 across and even experimented with 160 across working on the comeout for one hit then down to 96 or 54. I actually am up on these sessions with one caveat. A couple of times i have been down to my last 100 dollars for 96 across before i came back. Something i would never do in live play. Thus i came to the same conclusion i cant stand the volatility. If i were to play today i would be conflicted on how to bet. Some type of more conservative across scheme. I cant seem to give up on missing the hits on the 4 and 10.

I like the press schedule.

I've changed up my practice sessions lately as well. Instead of the marathon sessions trying to get in as many tosses as I can before my arm falls off, I have started doing my sessions by number of hands. I will generally toss three hands for a session, no matter how long those hands wind up being. If I toss three short hands in a row, I still stop. It mirrors reality a lot better, as I would almost certainly be pulling the plug in live play if I did that. I'm now tossing a few of these types of sessions a day rather than one big marathon session.

I hear you on the 4 and 10. They are hard to resist and I still hear their siren's call. It was a difficult realization for me to accept that I'm tossing way more inside numbers with my new toss tweaks, since for a long time I was an even number bettor. Lately, the 4's and 10's have become outliers for me and this latest evolution in my betting is a result of that. Taking that $30 I was placing on the 4 and 10 when I was experimenting with $96 across and moving it inside has helped with getting to a profit position much more quickly and now allows me to spread out to them in a better position in case they do start showing up.

[Moe Bettor]

Good work. Early profit position or at the least flat is the way I go. Three throws..not hits for me. And so I will count the ten or 11..or whatever is in those throws. After all, IMO, it's all about numbers showing up that aren't in my set. First hit is used to press up 6 and 8, 2nd one is 5 and 9. 3rd hit I'm regressing no matter which number is hit. I have always been nervous about 4 and 10. I prefer a hardways bet on those..maybe $5 each and press them up. Will give the hdways a couple shots..which costs less than placing them.That's for fun anyway.

[220Inside]

Good work. Early profit position or at the least flat is the way I go. Three throws..not hits for me. And so I will count the ten or 11..or whatever is in those throws. After all, IMO, it's all about numbers showing up that aren't in my set. First hit is used to press up 6 and 8, 2nd one is 5 and 9. 3rd hit I'm regressing no matter which number is hit. I have always been nervous about 4 and 10. I prefer a hardways bet on those..maybe $5 each and press them up. Will give the hdways a couple shots..which costs less than placing them.That's for fun anyway.

That is a good point, Nick. I should probably bake in a threshold in the first phase where if I don't reach my regression point in a certain number of throws, then I would do some sort of regression, possibly even a steeper one than to $66 inside. Hitting this threshold could be a sign that something is amiss and an adjustment of some sort is necessary.

Definitely food for thought, thanks for the comments.