Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Did you have fun writing that post?

Ah Memo,
I spent too many years as a college professor. So, this kind of stuff is just the way I write. Pity my poor wife...this is pretty much how I talk too!

skasower, lives life like its an amusement park (retired in 2009 and started a business in a completely different realm from what I taught)

My reason for being at the casino is to ply my DI skills.

I believe this is the underlying reason i play. I was initially drawn to the game by the excitement i saw it create one night passing through a casino. The first time i played i won what i thought was a lot of money at the time but i think the challenge of trying to have some influence over the dice and edge over the game is the driving force. Ive always been a competitive person with lots of physical endeavors. Slowly as my ability to be able to enjoy and even do some of the more physical endeavors has waned craps has filled that void. In order to survive at the table long enough to try and apply my DI skills i have had to learn HA, EV, variance, volatility and a whole host of things i knew very little about. I continue to learn from the experts on this forum and hopefully can enjoy craps for a few more years.

On my latest outing - at the seminar in Kansas City, I played one session per day. The sessions I played at Harrah's in KC were basically to let my casino host know that I was in the place and giving them action. My first session I played long enough for the dice to make two trips around the table. I played that long because I wanted a second shot at the dice after moving up into my preferred position. That decision payed off. Every other session I played at Harrah's was less than an hour and consisted of just one trip of the dice around the table. I won every session but one. The only session I played away from Harrah's was a group session on Sunday played at the Ameristar. We stayed for two trips of the dice around the table there. This session was my one big loser for the trip. Nevertheless, overall the trip was a win for me.

I typically play this way. I like to get a shot at the dice. If I am not successful my first time I like to make an adjustment and take a second shot. If that doesn't work out - win or lose I'll usually color up and take a break or change tables. I tend to run with the "change your table - change your luck" theory when things aren't running the way I want.

To a degree I play for entertainment, but for me entertainment is supposed to be fun. Winning is fun. Psychologically, you know when you're winning without even counting your chips because you're having fun when you are winning. When you're not having fun it's time to stop playing. Simple as that. Go find a game that's fun and play it.

irish wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:57 am And back to player utility. Why do you play? How do you get enjoyment from playing? As I've stated many times, I do not enjoy the casino environment for long stretches. I do not enjoy packed tables and I have zero need to interact with others. I like to play for 30-60 minutes, win or lose, and leave. I may or may not play for another few others. For a weekend trip to Vegas, I usually play a couple of sessions each day. My reason for being at the casino is to ply my DI skills. That's my utility. Your utility may be different. Your (or my) utility is not superior. We play for different reasons. You may take great pride that your buy in lasted 8 hours at the table where I'd kill myself if I spent 8 hours at the table.

This pretty much sums up my feelings and my style of play. I'm usually disciplined in my play, but occasionally fall short in this area. I stick to lowly populated tables, my goal is usually three or four attempts with the dice (me as shooter) win or lose and then bail. I want to leverage my DI skills to win. I limit or avoid bets on random and unknown shooters. I avoid high vig bets unless I am attempting to leverage a known advantage on them (GWAG- World Bet), I only bet bonus bets on myself and the occasional known shooter or I avoid betting them entirely. Being risk averse, I have the tendency to under bet my advantage in relation to my bankroll and buy-in. Still a work in progress. I fully embrace Heavy's adage, "If it ain't fun, it's time to run."

Good stuff memo and Irish!

OK, So I am getting a great deal of information that really helps paint the particulars of my composite picture as an individual DI 'Player'...Not sure I have ever given that much of an analysis in the past....It was much more of a vague understanding..

My question, really is more specific to the blanket statement that a DI does not have enough influence to overcome the HA of an inside bet...
What then, is the best way to bet, knowing that most rolls are rather short, and our most frequent numbers vary over time according to the discussion stated above..

Place to come of some sort?
It is pretty much accepted we suppress the 7, but dominant numbers vary, usually to the inside numbers.

Memo

I have a lil anecdote from my last vegas trip that might get you to think.

I was having a good session on a 5 player table, getting the dice back fairly quickly cuz people would pass and let me shoot, cuz my shot was going pretty good at Binions one afternoon... I was making a loft light toss that would sometimes get only 1 dice to hit back wall, they accepted it for about an hour, then 12 rolls into it, the pit tells me if my dice don't touch the wall. Or go too high again, I'm out.

So having a bunch of tricks up my sleeve, I switch to a flat controlled toss ...about 10 inch high and both die break right after touching wall... So thinking he got me to change my throw, he smiles at me after first throw...and I throw perfect shots for the next 30 shots lol, then color up and leave after a 42 rolls perfect execution. LoL

So, in the past, I have used the ISR thinking it would decrease my exposure to some of the short hands....Not doing the math, ...however it seemed right even logical. After all it only needs 2-3 hits to break even. Kinda on the same level as thinking a doey don't on a 25 dollar table will make it like playing on a 5 dollar table, when actually you are doubling the HA.

With a 6,8 place to come, we are reducing the HA as compared to an inside bet, even with an ISR...Irrespective of the frequency of play.
HA (of ISR) stays the same, it is just a reduced bet.

Memo

irish wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 am Honestly, and get ready for everyone to be up in arms. The BEST way to bet without identifiable dominant numbers? Just a line bet with decent odds. Volatile. Good recuperation rate. Boring as hell.

Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to) are likely to repeat (although not always - hence more than one come bet). Once the come bets pay off you have options. You can continue come betting, convert to place bets, or wait out for a PL win.

Bankerdude80 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:44 pm Taking this a bit further, if you add two or three come bets with decent odds into the mix does this reduce the volatility risk and how would it impact EV? My thinking is that as a practiced DI, the initial numbers your dice set and toss produce on a particular table (which your come bets travel to) are likely to repeat (although not always - hence more than one come bet). Once the come bets pay off you have options. You can continue come betting, convert to place bets, or wait out for a PL win.

I think there is merit to multiple come bets, especially When you are shooting in an established position on a known table. Those who play with me know I like to play a variant of the Heavy Heatseeker. In my latest straight out book, I’m getting lots of box numbers, some more than others and in live play, there has been a noticeable repeating of certain numbers, though you’re never sure during the actual hand. So on the two or three tables I know well I will place four of the six boxers, then follow up with two, generally three, come bets. I’m looking for hits and repeaters. Longer term I’ll convert the comes that hit into higher place bets. This has allowed me to catch more numbers earlier than just heat seeking with the six and eight.

Funny observation is on two of the three known tables I bet the four evens; whereas on the third I bet the four inside. Also on one of those two that are bet four evens, I’ve actually bet the four outside numbers recently, skipping the six and eight. This seemed contrary and weird till I tossed 5,5,9,10,10,5 while trying to make a point of four. Eventually I wound up with bets across that were all paid for.

DN8R

my betting knowledge obliviously needs more work, trying to understand why
line/come/come and three numbers being covered by line/place/place, you would have greater expected value with the line/come/come when analyzing at the meta level.

line and 2 place bets could get paid twice in the time it takes to establish line, come, come. plus i get to pick the numbers, can come down if i want and am protected from come out 7s if line bet was made. what am i missing that makes the come, come better?

I have tried a little come betting unsuccessfully, however i have never used it when i was tossing.

So, as good as it sounds, something like the 204 ISR places too much HA to overcome, even considering a regression...?
Where as, placing the 6,8 for 42 and a come bet for, say, 15 brings down the HA to an acceptable level..Or something along those lines.
Basically this is a betting strategy that minimizes the house edge to that which can be overcome by DI and at the same time covering our most dominant numbers

What about having a second come bet, the idea being to have four working bets....Similar to inside bet, but lower HA?

Memo

I did a fair amount of naked Come Betting using the old "heat seeker" in Kansas City when playing $25 games - just because I didn't want excessive exposure. $30 six and eight plus a $25 Come Bet. No odds until a number hit twice. Never more than three units exposure. Worked quite well.

I'm reading that this is a bet on a random shooter..perhaps one you've scoped out for rhythm or some other good quality. You make no mention of a line bet. Naked come bet meaning..no odds?

thnick,
The Heavy Heatseeker is the 6&8 with a come bet that you leave naked. Basically three units at risk.

I’m sure Heavy has detailed it in a thread somewhere here. I like the variant of a second come bet.

When I shoot I usually make that play as well , looking for the hot number. It’s particularly effective if you toss a 6 or eight so the come travels there.

DN8R

Heavy's heat seeker is detailed here:

http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforu ... ?f=4&t=559

thnick wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:17 am I'm reading that this is a bet on a random shooter..perhaps one you've scoped out for rhythm or some other good quality. You make no mention of a line bet. Naked come bet meaning..no odds?

Actually, if I am getting this right...And I think I am...
The place to come is something A DI can use to cover box numbers that he is prone to hit repeatedly, without engaging the HA associated with place betting 5,9,4,10.

The heat seeker can be used random and DI....You would probably keep it much more restricted for random..(as heavy has outlined) Either way, it has minimal HA. I guess I should revue it before before making these statements...It has no odds to begin with....Something that could be tweaked for DI, especially taking into consideration all the discussion above.

Memo

Agreed. There's a short answer for you. LOL.

This has been my current SO play on KNOWN tables (and a couple of others for shiites & grins) when I shoot......

My current BT has positive percent differences on all six box numbers; so my current tactic is to cover the TOP 4 - those being: 4,5,6 & 9.
I'm not playing GWAG from SO so I start with my point set. If my point is one of the Top 4, I place the other three and make a come bet. I will make a second come bet no matter where the first travels. Once I get two hits, I place odds & make another come bet, which I consider a free bet. Then its about hitting my spot and collecting a couple of times. I'll eventually fill in the remaining box number from proceeds, preferably after I've converted the Come bets to place bets. I find I come bet more from SO and presume this is due more to more perceived volatility from straight out compared to next to the stick.

I'm still learning the straight out nuances, initially before the shutdown, I was betting evens, with two come bets, but the BT feedback has been instrumental my efforts to adapt to this Top 4. Now I'm keeping table notes on what's hitting, so we'll see what that adds to the future analysis.

DN8R

DN8R my next trip to LV - we gotta get you at SR and me at SL and just figure out which casino we want to buy !!!! LOL !!!! Let me see where did I put those plane tickets........

DoSA,
See you in the morning, let's buy the Bellagio and get rid of the plexiglass....