Exponential Odds Variant

[Americraps]

Hi MP, Sorry I didn't see your post before now, so I will answer your question. I have thrown 12,240 rolls and have made $20,033. That's a net earn of $1.63 per roll. My srr for this period is right at 6. So if each hand is 8 rolls long, my earn per hand is $13.04. Keep in mind, I started at $10 units, then progressed in $5 increments as the BR allowed. In my latest book, at $20 units, I made $5.95 per roll, or around $47.60 per hand (the srr was 6.79, so I think I might have more than 8 rolls per hand)

Anyway, the 17th book of EO wargaming is done. Book #21 ( I started wargaming EO at book #5) was an interesting book, because I was was losing money after 150 tosses with an srr north of 8. What? Yep, I was having a lot of hands where I would cover the board with come bets and odds only to 7 out after 1 or 2 repeaters. Frustrating. Then I had a hand that included 11 sixes. That one got me healthy in a hurry. Once again, I tossed 5 hands of 20 or longer, but not too many in the high teens, and no real monsters. The six was the only highly repeated number, the next highest was 7 fives.

$20 units produced $4289 profit, with a final SRR of 6.79. A somewhat dissapointing amount of money to win for a decent srr, but you take the bad with the good, and on the next book I'm ramping up to $25 units with the BR at $25,033. I'm getting to the point where I wish it was real money, lol.

[Mad Professor]

$20 units produced $4289 profit, with a final SRR of 6.79. A somewhat dissapointing amount of money to win for a decent srr, but you take the bad with the good, and on the next book I'm ramping up to $25 units with the BR at $25,033.

There's a LOT to be said for maintaining a BIG-PICTURE perspective.

Your exploration of combining RappingCaptain's Exponential-Odds method with dice-influenced outcomes is one where you can't let yourself get bogged-down with toss-to-toss minutia; and instead, focus on the wide-perspective overall net-gain effect that it offers.

BTW, your average per-toss earn-rates are very respectable.


MP

[bryfromtheharbor]

The power of odds. You're having the dice pick the hot numbers for that session. Im going to re-read your posts to make sure Im tracking.

[Americraps]

OK folks, the Exponential odds experiment is over. Here are the final totals.
Beginning BR...$5000
Ending BR... $31,878
Net win + $26,878. A gain of $2.073 per roll.
# of Tosses - 12,960- 18 books
Average SRR- 6.077, no that's not a typo. The highest srr was 6.79, the lowest was 5.33.

I started this experiment with a 500 unit BR. After betting EO for 18 books, I would say 1000 units is the proper requirement.
As my BR grew, I upped my units from $10 to $15, then the last 2 books were $20, and $25 units.

I was shocked to see that i could win this much money with a very close to random srr. Granted, the conditions were perfect. I was shooting solo with no wait between hands, on my own table. Would it be different in a Casino? Was I random? At least in the beginning, I was. Is this a system that can beat the game, even on the Randy's? Good question. I would need to test it with incasino rolls to know for sure.
As has been discussed, the key to winning money with EO is NOT srr. The key is having long hands with lots of repeaters. I only actually got up to 100x odds twice, but didn't collect either time. So, is 100x odds neccessary? Apparently not, but you had better be ready to up your unit sizes so that you can press your bets by 20-25% and stay within the house odds limitations.

I'm stopping the experiment here because I have learned what I wanted to about EO. It works! My shot has improved to the point where I am ready to make another run at the casinos, and I want to wargame a method with lower BR requirements. I would like to use EO in the casinos eventually, but I am going to have to build a BR first. Rapping Captain, I tip my hat to you, RIP.

[freak]

If you want some live casino rolls I have recorded a lot of them. 1800 hands. 15,350 rolls. PM me and I'll send them to you.

[Americraps]

Howdy Snake Eyes! Hope things are well for you and Linda....

I was playing Rapping Captains Exponential Odds betting system. I will explain it briefly, then point you to the EO thread where RC himself explained his system. It is based on continuous come bets, so yes, there is always a come bet. Start with a PL bet, when the point is established do not take odds, but do place another come bet. When that come travels and you have 2 numbers, then you place 5x odds on each, and make another come bet with 5x odds, etc, etc.

You progress your odds as each number is repeated. RC was very specific that the amount of the press is 20 to 25% of the payout, no more than that. He laid out an odds schedule of 5,6,8,11,15,20, etc.
I was a little confused with "etc", so I added on with 25, 30, 40, 50, 65, 80, 100. In order to get to the promised land of 100x payout you have to hit a number 15 times. In my simulation, I never got that far. I ended up making payout charts to assist my puny brain.

He stated that, after a passline winner is made he would only work the odds on the comeout when he had 4 numbers or more working. Less than 4 and the odds would be off. I changed it to 3 or more numbers (exception of two numbers if they were 6 &8) for my simulation. When you get wiped out by a CO 7, you start the progression back to the beginning with 5x, and don't place odds till you have 2 numbers working.
Here's the thread on MPs site.
http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... EZ6LvnF98E

I am now practicing a don't strategy quicksetting the straight 6 perms and laying the 5 and 9. I moved further from the BW, simulating a 14 foot table. My plan is to build a BR at local casinos, (or by turning tricks on the Chicago street corners) and then switch to EO when I have one thousand units.

[Riggs]

What kind of comp value does this system have?

[Bankerdude80]

If this was used on the Strip, with 3x 4x 5x odds as your max, wouldn't you have to increase your come bet on a progressive basis? I don't see how you could apply the press schedule without upping your come bet. Is it assumed the odds are 100x on the table played?

If I missed anything, just point it out.

[Americraps]

Hi Banker Dude- Rapping Captain wrote that he wouldn't play in 3,4,5x houses. He did write that it could be used with 10 and 20x odds, but he preferred to play at 100x odds houses.

[London Shooter]

Americraps - thanks very much for putting up a link to the original thread over on MP's site. I had a couple of questions about his system but will now work my way through that long thread on the other site with interest and I reckon most of my points will be answered soon enough.

[Americraps]

OK since reading a few old posts that Heavy has revived, I got motivated to start wargaming with a new variant on Exponential Odds. For beginning, I'd like to recognize the Rapping Captain and the fantastic work did with his EO systems. There were ten of them that I know of, although I really am only familiar with his original Exponential Odds, ie Level 1. If you scroll up to my post on Oct 20, 2014, you'll see the results of my last EO wargame, which is to date the most complete simulation I have ever done. I made $26K with an srr of 6.077.

What kept coming to mind while I was doing those 12 thousand tosses, was that having the same amount of press for every repeater could be improved upon. An 8 pays 6 to 5, and a 10 pays 2 to 1. Why would you press each of them the same amount? Thats too much of a press for the 8 and not enough of a press for the 10. I wish RC was still with us so I could ask him about it.

Enter the "EO Bootstrapper". This system presses the profit from each hit, around 20% for 6/8, around 50% for 5/9, and around 100% for the 4/10 (which looks a lot like Heavy's 4/10 press strategy)
What you will see on this chart is a huge difference between the profit and betting totals for the 4/10 and the 6/8, and the 5/9. The payoff numbers are in Blue, the first number is the payoff for that hit, followed by the cummulative payoff. This chart assumes unlimited odds, and I will be using $10 units with a $10K BR.

Exponential Odds Variant Bootstrapper $10.jpg

Any thoughts? Opinions? Predictions?

[luxlogs]

Must be too Cold to grow Roses

[heavy]

Let me just chime in on the SRR issue.

Back in the day I was a managing general agent for an insurance company and I had a fairly large group of agents working under me. Typically these guys might get 50% commission and, as their production grew so did their percentage - until they got to the the point of becoming general agents (who could hire and train other agents) - at which point they might make 90% off their own production. But in the early stages of a career I always stressed to these guys that "you can't spend percentages - you can only spend dollars." In other words, don't focus on the wrong number. While SRR is one indicator of dice influence - it is not the ONLY indicator of influence. RBS is important, as is pitch control, as are dominant numbers. I'm looking at a fairly random book of rolls right now from a session someone told me about earlier today. 65 numbers tracked. 11 sevens rolled. SRR of 5.90. Had I been playing at the table when this series of number rolled I would have made around $1000 profit. Here are a few "streaks" that appeared in the hand that will show you why:

5 - 11 - 12 - 11 - 3 - 5 - 11 - 3 - 7out. See any profit opportunities there?

9 - 3 - 5 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 5 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 9 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 7out

Virtually all of the other hands tossed were six rolls or less. Point - point - seven out was the norm.

So we had a total book of rolls with a low SRR - but two VERY productive hands for the astute player.

Bottom line - don't think you don't have a positive expectation just because the SRR is "average."

[Americraps]

As usual, H has hit the nail on the head. One or two good hands with lots of repeaters can really make the difference. What RC kept saying was that you lose your small bets and win your large bets. Translation- a really short hand doesn't do too much damage, and when you get that monster hand, the payoff is huge. Scroll up to my bad chart and look what happens when you start banging out the outside numbers. The profits are terrific. Not so much when you repeat the 6/8s though.

In this system a PSO is a push. PPSO loses $120, PPPSO loses $180 unless there is a repeater there. Worst case is you cover all the numbers then 7 out w/o repeaters. You can have a hand in the teens and lose $360, and you can have a hand in the teens that wins $1K, depends on how many repeaters. That second hand the H posted above (25 rolls) with all the 6s and 8s would have won $1212 profit.

The downside with EO (exponential odds)- Most hands are losers, and if you don't get an occasional long hand, you get bled to death. Regressions just seem to frustrate me- I just finished a book using a regression system, ended up with srr of 6.0 and lost a simulated $2969. I had an average expected amount of short hands and a longer than expected amount of +20 hands, yet I still got crushed. With regressions, you can frequently lose your big bets and not win enough of your small ones. I remember having one hand in the 30s that only netted $330. I don't know how the bootstrapper system would have fared on those rolls, so I can't compare them, but I do know regression is not for me.

[London Shooter]

What I liked about the big 6 & 8 hand that Heavy posted above is that only one point is made, so if you are on some kind of progression on those numbers you are really baning in the paying hits.

Often you can look back on a longish hand, and if you are just place betting it, it may not be overly profitable due to the number of payoffs "lost" via a point being made and then being set during the come-out roll.

[Americraps]

OK, RC is up there laughing at me. The press schedule that I posted on Jan 13th is no good. I did 3 books starting with $10K and ended up left with a $2291. Definitely not working. Granted, the 3 books were all under srr of 6.0, but I can see that the press schedules were not optimal. Still, I had several hands in the 20s that cleared $1K in profit. It was the medium hands that cost me.

The first change is that I'm keeping the first hit as same bet. I'm willing to sacrifice some upside to help withstand the bad periods a little better. I kept 5/9 progression the same and made the 4/10 progression more conservative, I made the 6/8 progression more aggressive. Still, 8 repeaters on the 4/10 and you are at 100x odds, that's pretty aggressive. Now I just have to do it, lol.
I'm going to call this the EO Bootstrapper 2
The Pay/rak/cum column lists the amount that the hit pays/ how much is racked on that hit/ and how much is racked total for the hand.

Comments? Opinions? Predictions?

hit # Bet 4/10.....Pay/rack/cum ......bet 5/9..... Pay/Rak/Cum......Bet 6/8 Pay/Rak/Cum
1.........10+50......110/110/110......10+50........85/85/85............10+50........70/70/70
2.........50...........110/85/195......... 50.........85/65/150.......... 50.............70/60/130
3.........75...........160/110/305..........70.......115/85/235...........60............82/62/192
4.........125..........260/160/465.........100......160/110/345..........80............106/66/258
5.........225......... 460/235/700..........150......235/165/510.........120...........154/104/362
6.........450......... 910/560/1260........ 220......340/240/750.........170 ...........214/164/526
7.........800..........1610/1410/2670......330......505/335/1085........230...........286/216/742
8.........1000.........2010/2010/4680.....500.......760/510/1595........300...........370/270/1012
9................................................750.......1135/885/2480........400...........490/370/1382
10...............................................1000......1690/1690/4170......520..........634/504/1886
11....................................................................................650..........790/640/2526
12....................................................................................800..........970/770/3296
13....................................................................................1000.........1210/1210/4506

[Americraps]

I just finished the first book of this run and its srr was 6.49. The above press schedule ($10 units with starting BR of $10K) won $1593. The best hand was 28 rolls, and it won $1239. the most I repeated any number was 6x (on the 6,8, and 9), so nothing earth shattering was going on in this book. Still, a pretty solid showing at $2.21 per shot profit. 3 more like that and I can go to $15 units.

​I am always working the odds on the CO (once 2 or more numbers have been established), which differs from RC's original Exponential Odds, as he waited till 4 numbers had been established to work the odds after a point has been made.

[Tgold]

Good Evening Americraps. Thx for all your labor on this et al projects .

Re: Your statement at the bottom of this post.

Did RC ever indicate "why" he chose (4) established numbers before working on the CO?

Did RC ever indicate if he also had specific criteria for the (4) numbers (e.g., Must include >=2inside #s, >=2outside #s...etc,
OR just "any" four numbers)?


Thx in advance,
Tgold
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Americraps: "​I am always working the odds on the CO (once 2 or more numbers have been established), which differs from RC's original Exponential Odds, as he waited till 4 numbers had been established to work the odds after a point has been made."

[Americraps]

Hi Tgold-

Here's what Rapping Captain wrote when describing his Exponential Odds system-

Always work with 4 or more established numbers. It takes at least 2 established numbers to over come the 6 ways to make a 7. That is there are 6 ways to make for a 7 loss and, in the worse case scenario of established 4s and 10s of 3 ways each, for 6 ways win. The reason I use 4 repeaters is with this type of betting you never get any moneys off the table which you need to do at some point and as most hands do not go over 6 to 8 rolls. In the worse case scenario there 6 ways to loose and 14 ways to win. And the case of all 6 points being established there are 24 way to win for a 4 to 1 win ratio.

The complete thread is available on MPs board via this link

http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... qlAPvkrKHs

[luxlogs]

1.41% my Arse, Like Heavy said to Wong. "Ask the Dealer for your change."