Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Dylanfreake wrote:When I played Professor H`s Dont Pass Odds Progression , I always hated it when I was behind for the session and I hit a good progression of 4,5 or 6 wins in a row and then get the number of 4 or 10 established and lay that large amount of odds and get smashed by the shooter making his point , wiping out hard fought profit on a table that was cold up to that sting of wins.

I see no mention of this, if it's in this thread I apologize.

Once the win streak ends in a progression, do you start the progression over or do you continue on from the last wager?

DS

Once the streak ends , you start the progression over (at 1X odds).

I should also mention concerning come out naturals which result in Dont Pass losses, Professor H would take up to three DP losses to naturals before he quit betting on that shooter. Come out losses to naturals had no effect on his odds progression. The only time his progression was stopped, were by an odds bet loss (the shooter making his point).

I ,on the other hand ,would go back to the start of the progression on any loss and I only lost one wager of any kind per shooter.

The reason I did that is because at the time my bankroll was only $300 to $500 or $600 . In other words very small. So I had to quit when ahead , even if the profit was only $5 or $10 to survive.

When my wife forced me to go to the casinos , I took $100 and told her," When that hundred is gone , never ask me to go to the casinos again !" I never thought I would still be going to casinos , this far from August 2000. Professor H is one of the big reasons that I have been able to survive at the casinos, which I have grown to like instead of hate. I was never a gambler.

I thought it was start over, just wanted to be sure.

Since I don't play progression (haven't found one I like), and need to add one, I thought I'd take a hard look at this one. It kind of makes sense to me.

Like you I don't chase a shooter. Take me down and we're done until the next time around. Take me down again and we're done for the session.

I'll test this and see how it feels. One more question.

Did the equal odds work better?

I like equal odds better . Playing full odds is probably the best way to play.

Professor H , I really think , preferred playing full odds , but he wasn`t worried as much about bankroll as I was.

You have to play what you like.

I'll look at it from both sides and see which produces the best results and then decide if I want to take it for a spin in real life.

Thank you for the response.

crapsjourney wrote:I'm interested in this thanks for bringing it up. I'm still trying to work out how to make this play. I'll have another look later tonight to try to understand it with WinCraps. Does anyone have a bet file for this play?

The original table in Kelph's details I couldn't read, and the image he converted is long gone.

Here is the table.

[snip]

Table is also available at: http://www.dicesetter.com/craps_strategy/strat19.htm

with a short description (not by Professor H — why? Because don't think that Professor H would say switch to Pass Line to minimize losses, because his progression was a positive progression and not a negative progression. i.e. don't increase odds until winning three (move up one line on each win, or go back to the beginning on any loss).

A Don't Pass Survival Kit
1. At a $5 minimum table, buy in for $110 (20 red chips and 10 singles).
2. Put all the chips into the front (betting) rail.
(skip forward)
Use only the chips in the front (betting) rail to make bets.
10. Put all winning chips into the back (winnings) rail.
11. When no betting chips (those in the front rail) remain, total the chips in the back rail:
(a) $50 or less: quit.
(b) Between $51 and $134: move all the chips to the front rail, and continue playing.
(c) $135 or more: quit.

How would you adapt this bankroll method to the Professor's Don't Pass Odds progression? if you rack in the back, your front stack dwindles and if that crazy streak of 7 outs occurs mid-way or beyond, you're not in position to ascend the odds progression. So, what bankroll management would you apply? How much to start? Do you quit the session when you're up 20% or down 50%? Assume you're playing a $5 table minimum and using the original odds chart (versus the modification DF made after complaining about the 4/10 odds stinger). Actually, I'll take a suggestion for both, if you have it.

I played the survival kit method today at a Cincy-area property and watched a string of 14 pass-line failures. I made out fine with the kit method, but wish I had been playing the odds progression instead. I just don't know how to properly handle the money side of it.

Thanks!

Dylanfreake,
First, I want to thank you for your willingness to share your knowledge. I value very much the opinions and ideas shared by not only the more experienced players but also any that I find useful from newer players.

I am a fairly new player to the don’t side but do understand that it is vital to be able to have this tool if I want to survive in “craps world”. I have been using SIA’s 1 hit with pressing after the first hit with some success.

I have always found it difficult for me to lay a bet even though I do understand the mathematics of it. When I saw your description of the Prof H it gave me some incentive to study it, learn more, try it at home and possibly take it to the casino.
It seems to me like the substance of the Prof H is in the odds and low flat DP bet. Tables with odds offering less than 10x would in my thinking kind of defeat that since you would have to increase the DP bet so often. Is this correct? When playing the Professor H with equal odds on each number can it be applied to a 3, 4, 5 X table? If it can be used at lower odds tables (say a 3,4,5x or even 2x) would you only use 3 or 2 as the highest odds multiplier before increasing the flat don’t bet? Is it even worth using Prof H on those lower odds tables or best to stick with a strategy that doesn’t depend on the odds bets?

My reason for the questions is that I played at a 2x odds table on a boat this past weekend. DI was totally impossible. The boat was so small and unstable that it was a don’t players dream. It had one fourteen foot table placed across the boat with at most three feet of space at either end. That gives a clue as to size of the boat. There were times when I know if you simply dropped the dice they would have rolled to the end of the table (because of the approximate 25 degree angle from one end to the other as the boat tilted from port to starboard). PSOs were very common, points made were very uncommon and short hands were the rule. I was able to make a little using SIA’s with no 6 or 8 pressure. However, I believe a don’t strategy with odds would have cleaned up. The only way I will ever go back on that boat is if a good strategy exists for don’t play with odds on a 2x table. Any suggestions?
Thanks,
Coaster

[quote="Dylanfreake"

Professor H , I really think , preferred playing full odds , but he wasn`t worried as much about bankroll as I was.[/quote]



The bankroll issue is a huge one that many people ignore or don't entirely understand. If you are on a limited bankroll you must do everything you can to keep your bets as small as possible or normal variance will eat your lunch.

Personally, I consider a limited bankroll as anything under 5 figures that isn't liquid or easily rechargeable.

For use on a Lost Vegas 5X4X3X table :

$5 12(10) 12(8) 12(6) You can repeat this wager if you want to; even three-peat it.
$5 18(15) 18(12) 18(9)
$5 24(20) 24(16) 24(12)
$5 30(25) 30(20) 30(15)
$6 36(30) 36(24) 36(18)
$7 42(35) 42(28) 42(21)
$8 48(40) 48(32) 48(24)
$9 54(45) 54(36) 54(27)
10 60(50) 60(40) 60(30)

DF-

Simple question. What starting bankroll do you recommend to play the professor's don't pass odds progression? Let's assume $5 minimum. --Thanks!

I am a very conservative player.

The first wager in the progression, $5 12(10) 12(8) 12(6), has an AIW (average initial wager of $13), so I would take the $13 AIW times 10 which equals $130 ,which is the session stake( or the amount you are willing to risk per session) and multiply the $130 by 25 to determine what your Total Gambling Bankroll should be. Which is $3250. The session stake of $130 is 4% of your Total Gambling Bankroll ($3250).

Summary:
Total Gambling Bankroll $3250
Session Stake or Buy in $130

I agree with DF. Because you are upping your bet only on wins, you shouldn't need an overly big starting bank for this system if you want to stake yourself for at least 10 losing shooters. Factor in more if you are reloading on CO7 and 11 losers.

I have a further question on this topic - how is the Average Initial Wager caclulated?

$5 + ($12x10 + $12x8 +$12x6) Divided by 36 = Average Initial wager

DP plus the amount of odds ,times the number of times 6/8, 5/9, 4/10 can be tossed in an equal distribution of 36 rolls of the dice. Some folks use 35 as the divisor on the Donts because of the 12 pushing.

I do not know how to underline so I`ll state it another way :

($12x10 + $12x8 + $12x6) divided by 36 +$5 equals the AIW

DF,
Thank you for the 3,4,5 X table schedule. Don’t know what I was thinking or should I say, not thinking. Very simple and logical to increase the dp bet by $1 each time after 5 to get to the 6,7,8,9,10 X payouts. Is there a way to keep the dp bet in check for use on a 2x table?

Outstanding answers, DF, thanks! The AIW is a bonus which I had on my mind to ask as well.

Professors H Progressive on the Don't

DP$10x1x3 6/8 5/9 4/10
1. 10x1 12(10) 15(10) 20(10)
2. 10x1 12(10) 15(10) 20(10)
3. 10x1 12(10) 15(10) 20(10)
4. 10x1-1/2 18(15) 24(16) 30(15)
5. 10x2 24(20) 30(20) 40(20)
6. 10x2-1/2 30(25) 39(26) 50(25)
7. 10x3 36(30) 45(30) 60(30)
8. 15x2-1/3 42(35) 54(36) 70(35)
9. 15x3 54(45) 69(46) 90(45)
10. 20x2-1/2 60(50) 75(50) 100(50)
11. 25x2-1/5 66(55) 84(56) 110(55)
12. 25x2-3/5 78(65) 99(66) 130(65)
13. 25x3 90(75) 114(76) 150(75)
14. 30x2-2/3 96(80) 120(80) 160(80)
15. 30x3 108(90) 135(90) 180(90)
16. 35x2-5/7 114(95) 144(96) 190(95)
17. 35x3 126(105) 159(106) 210(105)
18. 40x2-3/4 132(110) 165(110) 220(110)
19. 40x3 144(120) 180(120) 240(120)

Professor H sent me this. I got confused reading it but I'll put it out there anyway.


Average Initial wager



$22 inside play $5dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $50 = $300

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $30 = $240


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 540/24 =$22.50 average odds bet for my $22 inside play

$5 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $7.45.

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $22. One-sixth of $22 equals $3.67.

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $17. Two-ninths of $17 equals $3.78.

$3.67 + $3.78 = $7.45.

Because you always make a $5 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $5 equals $1.39, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $5 = $0.39. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $20 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.93.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.26.

Summing everything:

$5 (DPL) + $22.50 (average DPL odds) + $7.45 (average place bets) + $1.39 (average first DC) + $0.39 (average second DC) + $0.93 (average odds on first DC) + $0.26 (average odds on second DC) = $37.92.

______________________________________________________________________________


$44 inside play $10dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $100 = $600

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $60 = $480


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 1080/24 =$45 average odds bet for my $44 inside play

$10 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $14.89.

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $44. One-sixth of $44 equals $7.33

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $34. Two-ninths of $34 equals $7.55

$7.33 + $7.55 = $14.88.

Because you always make a $10 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $10 equals $2.78, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $10 = $0.77. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $20 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.93.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.26.

Summing everything:

$10 (DPL) + $45 (average DPL odds) + $14.88 (average place bets) + $2.78 (average first DC) + $0.78 (average second DC) + $0.93 (average odds on first DC) + $0.26 (average odds on second DC) = $74.63.

_____________________________________________________________________

$66 inside play $10dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $150 = $900

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $90 = $720


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 1620/24 =$67.50 average odds bet for my $66 inside play

$10 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $22.33.

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $66. One-sixth of $66 equals $11

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $51. Two-ninths of $51 equals $11.33

$11 + $11.33 = $22.33

Because you always make a $10 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $10 equals $2.78, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $10 = $0.74. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $20 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.93.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.26.

Summing everything:

$10 (DPL) + $67.50 (average DPL odds) + $22.33 (average place bets) + $2.78 (average first DC) + $0.74 (average second DC) + $0.93 (average odds on first DC) + $0.26 (average odds on second DC) = $104.54.

_______________________________________________________________


$88 inside play $10dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $200 = $1200

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $68 = $544


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 1744/24 =$72.67 average odds bet for my $88 inside play

$10 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $29.78

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $88. One-sixth of $88 equals $14.67.

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $168. Two-ninths of $68 equals $15.11.

$14.67 + $15.11 = $29.78.

Because you always make a $10 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $10 equals $2.78, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $10 = $0.77. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $20 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.93.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $20 = $0.26.

Summing everything:

$10 (DPL) + $72.67 (average DPL odds) + $29.78 (average place bets) + $2.78 (average first DC) + $0.77 (average second DC) + $0.93 (average odds on first DC) + $0.26 (average odds on second DC) = $117.19

____________________________________________________________________

$110 inside play $5dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $250 = $1500

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $85 = $680


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 2180/24 =$90.83 average odds bet for my $110 inside play

$15 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $37.22

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $110. One-sixth of $110 equals $18.33

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $85. Two-ninths of $85 equals $18.89.

$12.22 + $18.89 = $37.22.

Because you always make a $15 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $15 equals $4.17, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $15 = $1.16. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $20 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $60 = $2.78.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $60 = $0.77.

Summing everything:

$15 (DPL) + $90.83 (average DPL odds) + $37.22 (average place bets) + $4.16 (average first DC) + $1.16 (average second DC) + $2.78 (average odds on first DC) + $0.77 (average odds on second DC) = $151.92

_____________________________________________________________________________

$220 inside play $25dp/w odds

average odds= 4/10-
The point will be 4 or 10 six times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 6 x $500 = $3000

The point will be 5 or 9 eight times per 36
come-out rolls, for total odds of 8 x $300 = $24000


The point will be 6 or 8 ten times per 36
come-out rolls, for total 0

The average odds wager after a point is set =
$ 5400/24 =$225 average odds bet for my $220 inside play

$25 = the DPL bet.

Not making place bets when the point is 6 or 8 reduces the average wagered on place bets to $74.45.

I know that that seems too low, but that's because I'm including the come-outs, where one-third of the numbers are not points.

A point of 4 or 10 is established one time out of six come-outs. With a point of 4/10, you place $220. One-sixth of $22 equals $36.67.

A point of 5 or 9 is established two times out of nine come-outs. When that happens, you place $170. Two-ninths of $17 equals $37.78.

$36.67 + $37.78 = $74.45.

Because you always make a $25 DC bet when the point is 6/8, I think we should include that DC in the average initial wager.

A point of 6 or 8 is established ten times out of 36 come-outs. Five-eighteenths of $25 equals $6.94, which is the average wager on the first DC.

In addition, you make a second DC bet if the first goes to a 6 or 8. That will happen 25 times out of 324 come-outs (5/18 * 5/18 = 25/324).

25/324 * $25 = $1.93. This is the average wagered on the second DC.

On top of this, if any DC point is 4/10, you lay $100 in odds.

The average odds laid on the first DC = 5/18 * 1/6 * $100 = $4.62.

The average odds laid on the second DC = 5/18 * 5/18 * 1/6 * $100 = $1.29.

Summing everything:

$25 (DPL) + $225 (average DPL odds) + $74.45 (average place bets) + $6.94 (average first DC) + $1.93 (average second DC) + $4.62 (average odds on first DC) + $1.29 (average odds on second DC) = $339.23

Bill- that don't pass progression you posted is news to me. I like it. Is this the latest and greatest from the Professor???

Hella awesome, guys! Thanks!