Hedging and Getting Past the Come Out Roll on the Don't Pass

[Golfer]

Joe, I think you got too much hedge action. Some is ok, if needed for that session, but overall leave the hedges alone and hold on.


Golfer

[heavy]

Joe and I have discussed this extensively off the board. At the end of the day I agree with Golfer. If you're not willing to expose your money to SOME house edge then you're playing the wrong game. Size your bets properly according to your bankroll and go for it.

[Mad Professor]

There was a father-&-daughter team that used to play at one of the casinos here (back when it had a 12-table craps-pit, and before it became the one-table mini-tub joint that it is today).

They played a hedge-system very similar to the one that Joe57777 mentioned above.

They would play several multi-hour sessions a day. The old man never shot, but the daughter did once in awhile. They'd chart everything. Every morning before playing, they'd sit at a closed BJ table, strategizing their upcoming session and trying to tweak their hedges. Then, after each session, they would do a post-mortem to figure out why their system didn't work quite as well as they had hoped.

They'd pore over the toss-results and try to figure out where the weakest link was in their hedge-betting armour. Sometimes it would take a day or three, but they'd find it, fix it, then jump into their next session with the 'new-and-improved' hedge.

This went on daily for about three or four years. You know the old saying about, "Don't bet the farm"?

Well they actually ended up betting the farm. They re-mortgaged and then eventually sold the family farm that the old man and his family had been on for several generations. They played on (and hedged on) whatever net-proceeds they squeezed out of that land. That lasted for another year and a bit; then they had to stop.

The money had dried up...and so had the old man. He was well into his 70's and I think the stress of that play just wore him out to the point where he didn't have the juice to even get out of bed anymore.

A cautionary tale if ever there was one about hedging.



MP

[Mad Professor]

I'm going to add a little extra to the post I just made above, Joe57777, because you seem like an ernest fellow.

Just to illustrate the not-so-hidden cost of hedging, let me take your above-example of a hedge and run it through the MP Bet-Calculating Mix-Master 3000 (which is cleverly disguised as a simple pad of paper).

Here's the hedge you were asking about:

Wait for one 7 to be thrown on a come out roll. Then put 12 on the DP. If a 2 or 3 rolls you win $12. If a point number is thrown and it is a 4 or 10 place it for $10. If the 7 or the point rolls you win $2 risking only $12 on the come out 7 or 11. If the 6 or the 8 is the point then you place the 6 or the 8 for $12. If the 7 rolls you break even and if the point rolls you win $2. If the point is a 5 or 7 then you place it for $12. If a 7 or the point rolls you win $2.

Over a typical set of 36-rolls; this hedge will cost you around -$12...or around -$0.33/roll.

While it's true that you may get onto some streaks that win you a couple of bucks; it's also true that a couple of Come-Out 7's or 11's will set you back very quickly.

In a typical store that gets in around 80 to 90 rolls per hour, your hourly loss-rate will likely be in the neighborhood of around -$25 to -$30 per hour.

Oh, I forgot to add that waiting for one C-O 7 to roll before wagering the DP will only slow your hourly loss-rate (because you'd simply be playing far fewer hands); however, the expected loss-per-roll would stay the same for each and every hand you are engaged in.


If there's any interest in having me run any of the other hedges mentioned so far in this thread; let me know.


MP

[Layman]

Well insurance bets is what I use when betting No Pass Line bets on a Come Out. Works like this: $5 No Pass; $5 Field; $2-$3 Any Seven wager. With $2 any seven bet you get your wager back. With an eleven roll you lose $2. Its the best strategy I can think of at least for me.

[Dylanfreake]

I only use hedges in landscaping , not on a craps table.

Why hedge a low house edge wager, with a wager that has a higher house edge?

[bobthetree]

Gotta go with DF on this one. High edge wagers just eat away at your bankroll, hedge or not. The rare exception is a crazy signature number. Typically you shouldn't have to look at anything worse than a 5/9 place or field bet to target said number though. If you are betting RR, you can calculate your expected losses. If you are using DI, you can use BT to know which bets are profitable. Bets must be able to stand on their own though!

[moed]

Heavy do yuo have any tips on playing the dont side. i play 41 no 4, 41 no ten. Going to A/c in may at the Revel. Im a John Patrick fan .

[bobthetree]

Moed,

I have found this series of articles VERY enlightening when it comes to shooting from the don't.

http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad143dontpart1.htm

The links to browse from one article to the next are kind of broken on dicesetter.com I use google to search the title and just increment the part # in the search. This should help you get to the next part in the series.

MP, do you have any more recent thoughts on shooting from the Don't?

[moed]

THANKS bobthetree

[heavy]

I rarely hedge my Don't play. I have been known to start out with a $15 Don't Pass, get that bet established, then follow with a $10 DC - giving me a total of $25 action. But I'm not a "lay against" kind of guy when it comes to hedges. Nor am I a fan of hopping the seven on the come out (the eleven can still whack you). Just figure out what you're comfortable risking and go with it. Utilize some basis money management rules, like not losing more than one bet per shooter on a single trip around the table - that sort of thing. At the end of the day the best hedge is no hedge.

[Maddog]

BTW... most of MP's articles can be found at the Dice Institute main site... http://www.diceinstitute.com Click on the "Dice Institute Home" link and then look for the blog links along the left side of the screen.

Dark Side Betting Articles

[RTUIKEN]

As to the original question. If playing the DP....I will either go naked and then after a point has been established, I will use that DP bet to cover my DC...I don't worry about the 11.

Or.

I will lay a 31 no 5 or 9 on the come out. If a 7 appears, I'm safe. If a number is established ( other than my lay) I'm good to go. If my Lay 5 or 9 gets popped, on the CO (say 5), I now have a DP no 5 and I can put odds on it to recoup.

Nothing is fool proof...All ways win at some point and all ways loose at some point. Just find what and how YOU LIKE IT and be happy, sip on you favorite beverage and enjoy the ride.

Ken

[Golfer]

Hedges do cost you but are helpful at times. The 11 or a lay bet can work wonders as so many times the comeout winners are balanced by quick 7 outs. Without a counter startegy you can lose during a bunch of quick 7 outs. Use hedges discreetly and when warranted.


Golfer

[priceisright]

I don't see why you would put 5 on the dp and 5 on the field and 2-3 on the any red if any joe blow rolls the chances of it being a 5,6 or 8 is really high! Your better off just putting 5 dollars at risk instead of 7-8 if anything place 5 on the pass and 5 on the dp if a number like 6-8 show up I would pull down the 5 on the dp and stack it behind the pass and if a 4-10 shows then I would place odds on the dp but if you are afraid to lose 5 bucks but are willing to lose 7 your logic is just not right it doesn't make sense no offense to anyone I just don't want you to lose money in my opinion what I call stupid bets be smarter risk less

[Dylanfreake]

There is one time in the playing of craps that the DP player has an edge and that time is when the DP wager survives the comeout and a point number is established. No matter what that point number is the Dont player has the edge. Never take down a DP wager after a point is established ; even if that point number is a six or an eight. If the player is worried about only having a 6:5 edge on that $5 DP wager then leave the DP wager up and place the point for $6. That way instead of 6 in 11 chance of winning $5 or a 5 in 11 chance of losing $5, you will now have a 50:50 chance of winning $2 or losing $1.

Or like Bob Dylan says, "I know my song well before I start singin'".

[heavy]

Another classic post "bump" - this time for the Hedge-a-Holics among us. Yeah, you know who you are. Thoughts?

[London Shooter]

I really don’t like hedges in the context discussed here. DF puts it best - why would you even consider hedging the lowest vig (bar odds) bet in the game?

Seriously, if you are having to hedge a DP then you are putting too much on the DP bet.

Pseudo hedges like SIA OHCM and the 15dp followed by a 10dc seem a lot more sensible as decent long term plays especially on the Randy generation

[heavy]

Seriously, if you are having to hedge a DP then you are putting too much on the DP bet.

And therein lies the problem. Let's say you're playing a $5 game. You play a $5 Don't Pass bet and it gets established on the nine. In a lot of players' minds this is a "Big Wow" moment. You have a whopping $5 action. If you play a $5 DP on the next 25 shooters - probably two hours of play plus - and get lucky and win 60% of those bets - you've won a ginormous $75. A hard core grind kind of guy might get excited about that. Most of the players I know are looking to win $750 - not $75.

So here comes Heavy with the correct answer. If you want to win $750 in the above situation you need to be making $50 DP bets - not $5 wagers. But THAT's when the feat of the Come-Out Seven or Eleven kicks in and the player wants to hedge. Again, nothing has changed other than the wager amount.

What happens when you toss those two green chips on the DP line? You get that funny feeling in the pit of your stomach. Your nut-sack draws up and your ass starts to pucker. Your palms start to sweat and your face and neck feel clammy. You've just gone from a $5 wager to putting 17% of your whopping $300 buy-in on the table. Then the seven shows and your stomach takes the express elevator to your bung-hole. Yeah, that pretty much describes it.

Soooooo, the player weighs THAT feeling versus risking $10 on a Big Red and another $5 on the Yo and suddenly that $15 hedge doesn't look so bad. Or maybe he should play a $105 No Four. Oh, shit. Then he'd need to hedge the four with a $15 hard four bet. And so, the circle continues and the drain draws nigh. Yeah, I'm waxing literary today.

[Dylanfreake]

My favorite hedge for the shade is Aucuba japonica.