A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[stratocasterman]

How do you play those chops with Target?

BPBPBPB – That scenario number of losses (4), puts me into Recovery mode betting. Actually, anymore, I will just stop/leave after the 3rd loss. Great to hear from you KrapsNovice and yes…Merry Christmas!

“I feel it is primarily due to just simply the nature of the game, drawing rules, and the finiteness of the shoe.”
I always watch for the ebb/flow, careful once I've received a lot of positive variance for my side early in the shoe, and cautiously anticipate the trailer comeback, and "play-the-sway".

Totally agree! I love your analysis and shoe anticipation play. Myself, I should really be more aware of the shoe after a lot of positive variance. Excellent observation as always Tgold!

Wondering if one could work the math on the technique of simply waiting for dragon tails of 7 or more and then playing the opposite hand with a martingale or fib progression. You can see the DT on the monitor they so freely provide. May not be for everybody but it avoids ever being chopped to death.

Hey thnick I like it!
I think I will look over my data for that scenario and run some numbers. What I have seen in the casino over the years, and am always willing to bet in that situation, is the “Target Bet” for sure. To run some kind of progression on that run I believe is very viable. A Fib is maybe a way to go or as Tgold suggested.

[Moe Bettor]

Yeah. If you run the numbers on dragon tails, I'd really like to hear about it. I haven't failed with the countertrend play yet, but conceivably a larger run than 13 or so straight P or B could price me out of the ballpark.

[Tgold]

Hi Eastcoast thx for post and intel re: stadium bac.

"... Hopefully at time goes on, we can catalog the casinos that have the stadium seating, at least then if anyone is in the area they will know whats available..."


Great idea--You could create a separate title within the Other games: Baccarat section. Hopefully we can get some responses as I too enjoy the stadium bac set up. Ive played on a similar platform in Biloxi-Harrahs and Venetian-Pallazo casinos in LV. However, I'm not sure if they were designed by Imperial Stadium or other. Neither as large as the one you reference above at The Sands Bethlehem,PA in your post (Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:40 pm).
Thx

All the best,
Tgold

[eastcoast]

Tgold,
If you could give me the minimum/maximum bets at the casinos you listed in your most recent post, I will do a list on Other games. In order to keep it simple, I won't worry about the size of the seating...as that could change from time to time. The reason I would list the minimum, is for example, Maryland Live!, 5.00 during the weekday mornings, then jumps to 15.00 on the weekends

[stratocasterman]

Wondering if one could work the math on the technique of simply waiting for dragon tails of 7 or more and then playing the opposite hand with a martingale or fib progression. You can see the DT on the monitor they so freely provide. May not be for everybody but it avoids ever being chopped to death.

Well I ran down some stats on this finally thnick...

Some “Target Betting” run stats…from actual casino and Baccarat Buster2 test app shoes from my spreadsheet…

Total Run results were from 5 – 10 results each in a run. With 5 being used as the base minimum run and ten was the largest run found.

I didn't run down any opposite progression figures BUT, what I DID notice was that in most all of the results, the following run rarely went more than 3-4 each run results (and 4 being VERY RARE). From what I saw overall, I think just betting the typical back-to-back "Target Betting" scenario was the best betting scenario. Trying to extend into that 3rd or 4th result would produce more losses than normal IMO. Maybe a Fib here and there and keeping some of the Winnings back in your pocket. I actually have tried this a little lately but seem to just get way more losses than Wins.

Total number of runs of 5-10 found were 165 each. 87 of those 165 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 5 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 53% of the time.

I was highly surprised at this figure. My personal (confirmation bias?) casino experiences would probably be more in a 65-70% range. In fact, IMO, it is my FAVORITE betting scenario hands down. Most all my Wins come from this scenario of clumps of 4 or more back to back runs.

Hell, you know me, I’m a Mr. Banker bettor period but, I will even bet the Player backside run nowadays as well. To see Win results of only 53% doesn’t add up to my usual MO. Hmmm??? Maybe the following stats may provide more of a clue?

Further spreadsheet stats based on the above…

Run results of exactly 5 each…84 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 5 each (51%). 50 of those 84 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 5 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 60% of the time. OK, that is a bit better compared to my experiences.

Run results of exactly 6 each…47 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 6 each (29%). 20 of those 47 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 6 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 43% of the time. OK, but, not so good of results as the runs start to get longer.

Run results of exactly 7 each…19 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 7 each (11%). 11 of those 19 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 7 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 58% of the time. Well…OK.

Run results of exactly 8 each…9 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 8 each (6%). 3 of those 9 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 8 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 33% of the time. Seems to be getting worse again, following a higher run result.

Run results of exactly 9 each…5 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 9 each (3%). 3 of those 5 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 9 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 60% of the time. Hmmmm…?

Run results of exactly 10 each…3 of the overall total 165 run results were runs of exactly 10 each (2%). 2 of those 3 runs amounted to a following “Target Bet” Win. This is to say that anytime a run of 10 or more occurred, the following run resulted in AT LEAST a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win result 67% of the time. Higher %, much lower sampling size.

As for the smaller runs, I’m not so sure of the 52% and 42% results. I guess it technically makes sense but, I tend to actually see and Win with much better results than that…

I DO tend to think that the longer the initial run is, the following run will produce at least a back-to-back “Target Betting” Win most of the time. That IS what I see quite a lot of in the casino and I think the numbers here tend to indicate that.

How does this shake out with you? Is this somewhat consistent with what you experience with your shoes?

[Irukanji]

I don't know...but do we sometimes over think the games we play (the house always has an edge) when in the long run it's all random and luck of the draw?

[eastcoast]

Thanks for those results, now those are some interesting patterns.....although thinking back to the shoes that had the most Target Betting opportunities, I have noticed that B and P were clumped in groups of 3s and 4s,no long strings to speak of. (The Sands,Bethlehem, Pa.) Also, the shoes with the longest chop ( at least 5B and 5P) had intermittent runs of maybe 3,4, and 5, of either P or B,then back to chop.

[House of Orange]

If it wasn’t for the 5% tax on Banker we would all be rich with the D’Alembert! Any way to factor that into the progression?

[mssthis1]

If it wasn’t for the 5% tax on Banker we would all be rich with the D’Alembert! Any way to factor that into the progression?

Play the no commission EZ bach and pray for no 3 card banker 7's that are a winner in normal baccarat. Those are a push and are in exchange for no commission on banker wins.

[House of Orange]

I think no commission bac has disappeared from Biloxi, so commission will have to be factored in.

[Tgold]

Hi Eastcoast Happy New Year

Apologies for delayed response--I had several multi-day bac trips during the holiday season.
Re: Your post above on 12/13/18 regarding various Stadium Bac setups and making a catalog within the Baccarat or Other Games sections. Great idea and hopefully others will post their local bac pit info

The Biloxi-Harrahs : 6 chairs, $5 min w $10 min on weekends/holidays. Usually only one $15 table open . Lately second table on weekends at $25.
Max bet was $2000 I "think". This info confirmed 1/1/2019 by the Biloxi Bacarrat Legend (Bobbybones).

Re: Venetian-Pallazo casinos in LV--I havnt played there recently so I will wait until I can confirm the most recent intel.

All the best,
Tgold

[House of Orange]

Not too many of my friends are legends!

[stratocasterman]

Heavy started a thread, Baccarat Tie Bet at https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... f=8&t=6007 that has been a topic of discussion several times. It grabbed my interest for sure. The following is a copy of my post reply in that thread where I went back and looked at past stats. Since we post numerous stats here in this thread, I wanted to include my Baccarat Tie Bet stats for those interested.

Happy 2019 New Year!

You knew I would have to jump on this and go back to my Baccarat games played/tested spreadsheet for some stats. Heavy peaked my interest again. I love stats and in a game with so many, numerous results, IMO, Baccarat tends to really lean towards the stats percentages.

IMO, confirmation bias weighs in greatly on this subject, especially to those of us who have played thousands of shoes of Baccarat. IMO, “See a Tie, bet a Tie” IS a decent bet and some stats here will shock you I think. Also, know that Heavy, LondonShooter and I had discussed this awhile back. We agreed the Tie bet was not a favorable bet BUT, there might be times when it was appropriate.

Being here in the Philippines, 95% of the players I see ARE Asian players and trust me, Heavy is absolutely correct, especially with the Chinese gamblers. They study the big board and “Tie Lines” and sooner or later you will see them get all besides themselves excited. “Tie Line” they will point out for all to see and they jump all over it! Not me! They’re guess is as good as mine and if you decide NOT to bet it, your probably in the 90% tile of correctness NOT to bet it.

I personally don’t really hold much merit in their Tie Line calculations of guessing ANY single result Tie. FlextimeLV, IMO, they aren’t SEEING anything but, superstition and confirmation bias. It is a haphazard, very low % chance bet as Heavy pointed out. If I EVER bet on just a first single result Tie bet, it is only after I see a Banker “Super Six” result. Yes absolutely, that is my favorite confirmation bias bet in the casino, I admit. I just seem to see it happen way too many times and that is my allotted “sucker bet” for the outing.

I physically went back through the last 60 Baccarat shoes I have actually played in two different casinos and came up with the following stats:
Average amount of Ties per shoe = 7.6 Of those Ties, the Total number of Ties per shoe ranged from 5 each to 15 each.

OK, here it comes! A whopping 25 out of 60 shoes had at least one “See a Tie, bet a Tie” result for (42% of the shoes!)

10 of those 25 shoes had TWO “See a Tie, bet a Tie” results and 3 of those 25 shoes had THREE “See a Tie, bet a Tie” results.

To score a TRIPLE, “See a Double Tie, bet a third Tie” only results in three shoes (1/2%). I have seen this numerous times…but. Funny thing was in my stats, the total amount of Ties within the shoe, of the triple Ties in these three shoes, was just 7.

One other stat was the average Total of Ties in the shoe where there was at least one “See a Tie, bet a Tie”. That average Total number of Ties in the shoe was 9.3.

Worst case scenario, to me, is that you could bet the “See a Tie, bet a Tie” the first seven times and lose. Then bet the eighth time for a Win. Maybe that’s what the casino is banking on to play even with their stats.

I tend to think the odds might be slightly better in our favor but, it’s a best guess probably. IMO, the only way to find out is to CONSISTANTLY bet the Ties. If you don’t, it’s more than likely going to KILL you just spot betting it just like “See a Horn, bet a Horn” right?

[stratocasterman]

Playing BOTH Sides with "Target Betting".
Eastcoast and I had discussed this a bit but, never really came to any definite conclusion. Tell us what you think or if you have tried this any.

This is partially from my TR Post of February 1, 2019

P2T2P4233T1P1T1B211T1P51T2P11P1T1P31T1B121P1T1B221T1P1241112T1P21T1P32 – P39-B23-T13. A Player dominant shoe with a better than average amount of Ties. For you Tie players, strangely enough, see a Tie, bet a Tie happened twice within the first 32 results of the shoe.

Ugly shoe! Probably NEVER would had played it but, I decided to try/brave a newer strategy out and just sat down to the first table I saw that was a brand new shoe.

My thinking was to “Target Bet” EVERY opportunity that came my way…Banker OR Player. I still utilized my confirmation bias rules of not betting after a Tie or Banker Super Six. Ironically, that saved me several losses in this shoe as Ties seemed to produce opposite swings and Banker Super Sixes at the top of a Banker run were just that…never produced a Target or “back to back” Win in this shoe.

I utilized my Grand Martingale betting progression of $6 Base Bet, $14, $30 and $64 with a Recovery mode flat bet of $25 if needed. My theory was that I would likely not incur any Recovery mode unless the shoe turned on me with any PBPBPBPBPBPB type of swing. To say, as long as the shoe produced a fair amount of “Target Betting” Wins, I figured I would come out on top either way the shoe went (Player or Banker).

Made $100 on the shoe in about 75 minutes. Just a close guess looking back…if I just played my usual Banker game, I would have probably made $30.

I think I will go back and take a look at my past 50-100 shoes and see how this “Target Betting” strategy would have played out.

Thoughts???

[KrapsNovice]

Excellent post Michael! I played a few shoes the other day I broke even but i gained more insight into recovering. I stopped after two sets of BPBP, If I had not I would have lost. The chops were plentiful with one run reaching 10 X's. I look forward to your results from your last 100 shoes.

Continued Success, KN

[stratocasterman]

Thanks KN! Great Recovery! It keeps you in the game and I also think it builds confidence!

Me too.

A quick guess, Strato, would do you feel the results will be before you look at the past shoes?

Scout...my guess is going to be a positive one (mainly, because I think my past result shoes were pretty good shoes in the first place!). This new study on my past shoe results may not be fair and you have provoked thought once again in a good way! Maybe I should blindly take this to my Baccarat Buster II software testing app and see what happens? This way it can truly keep me honest with blind random shoes.

Thanks for the post and getting me to see this clearly! I love the input from ALL of you! It has produced a great side to this game IMO and the Winning just continues...on and on and on...

[stratocasterman]

Hi Strato,

Have you made any slight adjustments to the target betting? Also, would you provide a quick recap of the target betting play you implement?

Scout posted this question to my TR thread. I thought it better answered here in this thread. Thanks Scout!

STRATOCASTERMAN’S “TARGET BETTING” STRATEGY

BETTING PROGRESSION STRATEGY/AMOUNTS
My betting strategy with the Grand Martingale negative progression, w/Recovery Mode after any straight 4 losses in a row, remains the same. $6 Base Bet/$14/$30/$64 – the reason for the $6 Base Bet is the Peso to Dollar conversion here in the Philippines (100 Pesos = $2). You must bet increments of 100P only, thus the 300Peso bet or $6.

I have been asked several times about why not raise my amounts since I am doing well. Do I always adhere to these $6 Base Bet/$14/$30/$64 amounts? NO! This is my base, go to betting strategy. Sometimes, I bump it up or start out, about 3 times these amounts. If things are going good, “show me the money”! If not, I will settle down back to the base betting progression.

I’ve been asked before about the $6 Base Bet. Most tables here in the Philippines are $20 Minimum tables and escalating to $30 tables, so how do I do it??? Easy! You know me, I like Banker! So, I make a $20 Player bet to satisfy the table Minimum, then make a $26 Banker bet…Net effect is $6 right? Simple. Do I catch any grief…NEVER! The ONLY side effect from this play is that 99% of the time, IF the Dealer notices that they are both my bets, the Dealer will NOT allow me to “squeeze” or handle any cards. Since my bets are on both sides, I am not allowed to “play” the hand since the Dealer doesn’t know which hand to let me play (bet amounts are irrelevant Management says). Do I care? Hell no! I am interested in one thing and ONE thing only…Winning $$$!!! That’s it! If I just have to play or handle the cards, I can go home and do that. Who cares!!! More times than not, when I get to the $30 or $64 table bet amount, I am going to get the cards anyway if I have the highest bet amount. So it is not like I NEVER get to “squeeze” the cards. Truly, I think it is the BEST and most thrilling time to get the cards really! Usually, lots of eyes and people on your side rooting you on.

RECOVERY MODE
Recovery Mode bet is $26 – once again, the 100 Peso increment.

As stated, Recovery Mode kicks in after any straight 4 losses in a row ($114 Loss). I don’t necessarily make this bet immediately following the 4 straight losses, it is a random bet made at ANY time, to “catch up” from my losses to get back to even. I generally look for what I would call a “prime” “Target Betting” opportunity (confirmation bias…hahahaha) then, make the bet. I don’t always adhere to the $26 amount either. I have been known to take some big gambles at times and bet my ENTIRE LOSS amount to get it ALL back at once. YOU decide what makes you comfortable and WHEN to do it.

If you are losing, why the hell would you continue to feed the casino large bet amounts? I am willing to do this for the possible 4 losses ($114) amount but, that is it! Just go back to your small Base Bet amount until the tide turns!!! When it does, THEN start making your Recovery mode bet amounts

Not to have the big head here but, honestly, the way I look at it any more…I am WAY ahead in the Profit column. I can afford to take the gamble because it is their money anyway and time and again has proven that I USUALLY get the “Target Betting” opportunity Win, MORE than a loss.

“TARGET BETTING” PLAY STRATEGY
MY “Target Betting” strategy is to bet the second occurrence in any run, be it Player or Banker. Further to state that MY “Target Betting” strategy is to bet when the FIRST “back to back” opportunity presents itself in a NEW or RECENTLY SWITCHED run.

Most of you know me by now, I BET BANKER ONLY! My reasoning is simply the card drawing rules. Banker’s third possible card draw is based on the Player’s results, period. Nothing fancy here folks!

OK, I had to state it that way but, that is not entirely true. I do sometimes bet on Player but, that is VERY RARE!
I used to continue betting the $6 Base Bet amount until the run ended. I do NOT do this anymore. I am satisfied with the Win and reload for the next opportunity. I just try to avoid being bumped up to the next betting level. Sure, if you Win at the next level you still Win a bit more but, I just try and avoid getting higher up the progression ladder.

CONCLUSION
Nothing is steadfast here! Develop your own progression level and amounts that makes you comfortable. Same goes for the Recovery Mode. I think as in anything else, you will settle with a pattern that works well for you. I say this because many of you have posted here or PM’d me with what works for you.

As for betting Banker all the time, it works great for me because there is no 5% Commission charged here in the Philippines. They charge their “tax” on a Banker result of six, or commonly known as the Banker “Super Six” because there is a Banker “Super Six” side bet which pays 12:1. The only problem with the Banker “Super Six” is that it carries a “tax” of 50%! Yea, 50%! I hate it but, if you think about it, it would have to happen exactly on your “Target Betting” opportunity for it to cost you anything. I went back over my shoes and figured I have probably only paid about 1% in commissions in total. That is MUCH better than 5% and you really will not hear me complain too much. Additionally, if I do get hit with a 50% payout, I will sometimes increase my bet for that amount at some point in the future to “Win” it back. I know that sounds stupid and it is. You can NEVER get it back without RISKING more on your inflated amount bet. And I have actually had times when I bet that inflated bet to get my “tax” back and damned if it doesn’t end up being another Banker “Super Six” again paying 50%. I think the moral to the story on commission is to just pay it and forget it. You are STILL Winning correct?!

Most recently, I sat down to a brand new shoe the other day after a long Christmas/New Years holiday break. I posted it above and in my TRs. I decided to bet EVERY “Target Betting” opportunity that presented itself, Banker OR PLAYER! The result was nothing spectacular but, STILL was a $100 Win for about 75 minutes worth of time. I’ll take it ANY day and it was about an average daily Win for me in that allotment of time. I decided to just head home to the condo but, usually would have stayed for another shoe.

I went back and figured my Winning average for the last 19 casino trips. It was $197 per day playing on average 2 shoes in about two and a half hours. Toss out the bathroom and cappuccino breaks and I’ll average it to 60 minutes per shoe or $98.50. Pretty decent I think for sitting on my a$$, laughing a lot, drinking cappuccinos and conversing daily events and what not with strangers.

If you haven’t figured it out lately…I just love playing Baccarat with “Target Betting” don’t you?

[crapsjourney]

Good write up. As Michael says it’s a personal thing. My target strategy is more in line with Seth’s target 3 play variant. Which has been discussed on this thread. You will find your sweet spot as you work the play and begin to understand it. Every strategy has its achilles heal and this is no different. You just need to know what it is and what it looks like so if it’s happening you pull back and wait for that to end. Then just resume from where you left off in your progression / regression.

[stratocasterman]

Eastcoast and TGold...

Went to my main, go to casino today, first time since late last year. They now have NEW stadium seating for Baccarat and Roulette! They were installing some other new stuff today when I was there but, I didn't notice what it was. It's at Resorts World Manila Casino.

For now, they have a big wheel spin for cash (rip off IMO), one roulette wheel and three separate Baccarat Live Dealer stands with eight deck "hand shaken" shoes. There are $1, $2, $4 and $6 seats 24/7. The $1 seats are only for the big wheel spin for cash and Roulette. Any game can be played from the other seats.

Hey, I can now play Live Dealer, eight deck "hand shaken" shoes at a $2 Minimum! Hahahahaha...surprise, surprise!

[eastcoast]

Thats great news strato! The more shoes to look at during the day, the better....just a update on the Player side (both sides of Target Betting) assuming you stay with the same play on the Banker side....I tried full bore on both sides, but the problem one may run into is a higher than normal loss rate (as compared to just the Banker side) so....I tried just "cherry picking" the Player side...if the shoe is "pairing BP side to side" seems safe to play both. One could miss maybe 25% of profitable Player pairs, but that's better than 10 straight losses,or more.