Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

300 inside, one hit pays $170… regress to 110 inside profit and regress. Takes balls and bankroll. Lol. I have the balls, but not the bankroll. If ya wanna spiff it up a bit, add a 4&10 and never regress those.

Parson wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 9:46 pm 300 inside, one hit pays $170…

Not quite, I play $300 inside meaning a $90 6 and 8 with a $60 5 and 9. I hope to hit all three shots on one of these numbers but if I can hit with 2 of them then my money is off the table the rest of the roll.

stars123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 3:37 pm

Parson wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 9:46 pm 300 inside, one hit pays $170…

Not quite, I play $300 inside meaning a $90 6 and 8 with a $60 5 and 9. I hope to hit all three shots on one of these numbers but if I can hit with 2 of them then my money is off the table the rest of the roll.

I was using $150 each number inside.

I had a private lesson with a student this past week. His favorite play was $220 inside for two hits, then regress to $110 inside and start pressing and taking from there. We went through the math of that and the fact that post regression he still had $40 at risk, so if he didn't get that first hit he was in deep.

Then we went through the numbers. Ten ways to roll the Six and Eight. Eight ways to roll the Five and Nine. No other numbers could win for him. Six combinations of the dice could shut him down. Essentially a one-in-three chance of hitting a number without hitting a Seven. A 50/50 chance that he's hit a paying number at all. I don't know a lot of poker players who'd like those odds. I'm not a fan of them.

So from there, we talked about options. The one that came immediately to mind was regressing to $66 inside. That puts him in a $4 profit position. After that, take the first hit, increasing his profit to $25, then power press the next hit and engage in an up-a-unit press strategy from there. Once you get a second hit (if you get a second hit) on the power pressed number it's time to get more aggressive on all of your bets, perhaps with a full press and take strategy. Lots of ways to approach it once a hand develops and your bets are paid for. But I'm still bugged by that 50/50 chance thing and those six combinations of the dice that can shut you down - even if you're a decent DI (and this guy tossed a 29 hand right out the chute after a toss tweak or two). I'd like to add six more combinations of the dice to the winning side by adding the Four and Ten. So how could I do that? It bugged me for a couple of days. Then, over the weekend, it came to me.

The answer lies in Mad Professor's old $204 Accross play. For those of you new to the group of you old timers who may have eaten too many magic mushrooms in the 60's (me included), that's $25 Buy bets on the 4 and 10, $35 each on the Five and Nine, and $42 each on the Six and Eight. Every hit pays $50 for 1. That adds six more opportunities to get a hit over betting the inside for $16 less than that $220 inside my guy was currently risking. He'd have $98 in the rack after 2 hits. Then regress to $96 across, which is $15 each on the outside numbers and $18 each on the Six and Eight. Take the first hit unless it's a Four or Ten. Always go directly from $15 to $25 on either of them if they hit - the bet pays for itself and you get your bet back plus a couple of bucks profit. Same bet anything else that hits so that you have another $21 in the rack. Then full press or power press the next number that hits on the inside. If it's a Six or Eight, drop $3 and go back up to $42. If it's a Five or Nine go to $35 and collect $1. Don't let them talk you into going to $36 unless you are in Mississippi and it's a $36 Buy bet. That's a better deal.

Once you have one number power pressed, just go up a unit on the other numbers as they hit until you collect that $50 for $1 on the power pressed number OR you have collected a total of $100 in your win rack. Then you can full press or get into what would be the next press in the 'Heavy Press Series" on those inside numbers. Follow that schedule from there.

Six and Eight: 18, drop $3 go to $42. Collect $50 for $1. Next hit go to $90. Then collect $105. Next hit after that go to $180. Next hit after will pay $210 - drop $30 and go to $420. $420 pays $500 for $10. Stay there if you want to or go to $900 on the next hit. Follow the same press schedule as above - just add zeros. 18 - 42 - 90 - 180 - 420 - 900 - 1800 - 4200 - table max (usually $5000 but they'll probably let you go $6000 on Six and Eight)

Five and Nine: $15 go to $35. Collect $50 for $1. Next hit go to $75. Then collect $105 next hit. Next hit after go to $150. Then you're just repeating the sequence. 15 - 35 - 75 - 150 - 350 - 750 - 1500 - 3500 - table max, which is usually $5000.

Four and Ten - you can just double up every time. 15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 200 - 400 - 800 - 1600 - 3200 - 5000 (table max). But I prefer to get that purple chip sooner so I go 15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000. I save one step getting to table max. Note that when I get a $1000 bet on the table on the Four or Ten I've already racked an $850 profit off it. You can always take down that $1000 bet and improve that win to $1850, or regress it back to $250 and have a $1600 win with a shot at winning $500 on the next time you hit that number.

But REMEMBER - always be thinking in terms of what you need to do to turn a losing hand into a winning hand early on in your hand. But once you have a profit in the rack it's time to think in terms of first making a small profit - then pulling out the big guns.

The 204 across and regressing is a very powerful tool

I've recently been toying with a layered approach to a 220 inside regression play. It's based on the dominant number approach that I'm a big proponent of.

I'll start with 220 inside. First hit, I'll rack the $70. The number that hit stays at the same bet level. The other 3 numbers I regress to a 110 inside amount (30 on 6/8, 25 on 5/9).

On the next hit, I rack the payout (either 70 or 35 depending on the number hit). That number stays at the same level, and the remaining 2 or 3 inside numbers that have not yet hit get regressed to a 66 inside level.

After that first hit, I've reduced my exposure to either $65 or $70 depending on which number hit.

The ideal situation is i toss the same number back to back. Here I've racked $140 and am left with either 101 or 108 in action so am in a profit position.

If I instead hit two different inside numbers, I've racked 105 and will be left with roughly $10 exposure for the remaining bets on the table. The next hit will pit me in a profit position for the hand every if I start pressing.

Most that know me are aware that I am a proponent of regression betting. In one way or the other, I have tried most all of the approaches listed above. (With the exception of 2200i. That is a new and interesting approach)

The Achilles Heel of any positive system is a short roll. However, it is especially damaging to the regression better, to get caught with your whole initial bet sitting out there exposed to the seven.....(As Heavy so explicitly points out in each of his classes, can and will happen). That being said, once the regression is made, our regression better is perfectly positioned to accelerate through the betting sequence as a hand develops...That is the good side...The hand we all aspire for.

My experience has shown me two things.
Long hands are rare. Medium hands not so rare, but they can be infrequent. So. After all the tension and stress of going through the process (making the big bet, regressing, resetting to the lower bet)...Many times you will get knocked down soon after. Collecting maybe one or two bets (or none) then having to go through the whole process all over again with very little to show for it....That is key..Little to show for the risk.

The second thing...(keeping the above in mind) When you do not make the regression...It can take a number of hands to make up the difference. Each of those 'make up hands', carries the same risk.

I like to think that I will not have many of those 'non-regression' hands. Sometimes, it does not work out that way. Ask me how I know.
Gadds, I love this game

Memo

Thanks for the insight into regression techniques and helps with risk mitigation and money management. Also learning about the dark side here to round out my playing style. Can't wait to attend the next seminar LV. ??dates