Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

hey bobthtree, I think I have figured out the newest version of the Cowtip strategy in Wincraps. I will have to test it out a few more times, but it finally looks solid. I did find some logic errors in my old script where I only increased the bets by $1, I wasn't going for 2 wins in a row in the old method and then dropping down to the base bet of $5. I will post some results here and on the Dice Institute board. Thanks again DF for the explanation and keep that bankroll growing and the casinos moaning!

Thanks DF and Al_F, I certainly appreciate the input. Looking forward to seeing that wincraps script =]

The way I play is not exciting at all.

Results are excitement And you certainly have them

Dylanfreake wrote:The way I play is not exciting at all.

You didn't have to tell me that DF!! Having played a version of the Cowtip with a $1 increase method quite a few times I know that after that 1st loss on a shooter, it can be a LONG time until you make a bet again. I don't have as much discipline as you do, I normally switch over the pass line if I see a really hot shooter. But I will go back to the don't pass soon there after. I am like most people around here; an action player. I do like to have some action on the table and not stand around admiring the scenery ALL the time, some of the time is OK but it can get boring. LOL

My recent don't pass wins have come from my Al Falcons $10 Don't pass Neural strategy. It is more risky, you certainly can't play that with less than $200 bankroll like the Cowtip, but it is more profitable per session. Or at least I think it will be. I need to run the new script through some random and DI rolls and see what happens.

al_falcons wrote:

Dylanfreake wrote:My recent don't pass wins have come from my Al Falcons $10 Don't pass Neural strategy. It is more risky, you certainly can't play that with less than $200 bankroll like the Cowtip, but it is more profitable per session. Or at least I think it will be. I need to run the new script through some random and DI rolls and see what happens.

Looking forward to hearing how this turns out.

My recent don't pass wins have come from my Al Falcons $10 Don't pass Neural strategy.

Ah, the Neural. Our old pal Wolfbyte must be frothing at the mouth out there somewhere. Silverthorn just had an orgasm. Don't forget to make the strategy even more boring by adding that three capping thing in. If you don't know what I'm talking about just search the forum for Wolfbyte's posts. It's in there somewhere.

The wolfbyte posts are always full of flavor, I don't think I've been able to decipher the strategy into anything I could replicate yet though...

Once upon a time he posted the strategy in pretty good detail. I still had problems following it. Especially when you get into recovery mode. Basically the Neural is a slow fibonacci progression. Wolfbyte put some qualifiers on it as to when to enter the game - that's the capping portion I mentioned. If you are patient and are willing to risk relatively large sums of money for a relatively small return and suffer occasional huge losses - it ain't a bad way to play. LOL.

That sounds incredibly painful... The DF methods appeal to me because I think I could play it with a pretty small side bankroll/buy-in to keep me out of trouble during the randies. Trying to come up with the best one out of the group for a $5 game with a $150-200 buy in I think.

Side note: I think trying to pay attention to too many indicators and entry points when I am not shooting might be too much of a pain for me. I like to people watch, study what people are doing / betting on, and enjoy whatever I have sitting on the beverage rail

I ran the Cowtip through the 40 random roll sessions I created previously and posted the individual session results over on the Dice Institute web site here:
http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2013/ ... e2/#post38
Here is my summary of the 2013 version of DylanFreake's CowTippin strategy. Thanks again DF for the explanation!

A couple of notes here, you can play this strategy with $175 bankroll, which is AWESOME for us cheap betters on the randies. In my situation I used $200 just to make things even and I ran the new strategy through all 40 sessions with the results below: 26 wins, 13 losses and one tie 65% wins, total winnings a meager $145 and a session average of $4 win. Kind of like watching grass grow or paint dry, but better than losing several hundred dollars at a time betting $110 inside on a random roller and praying for some box numbers!!!

Comparing those same 40 sessions to a few other methods like the Al Falcons Don't $10 Loss Progression 5-loss $2000 bankroll, which won 27 and loss 13, 68% wins, $2218 win over the sessions for an average of $55 a session. Now this strategy uses 10X the bankroll that the CowTippin strategy does, so you might expect to win more per session with a lot more at risk.

Speaking of Wolfbyte or W7, I heard that he was ill, and I hope he returns to full health so he can post some post about those crazy craps with card games in California. Get better W7!!!

I had created a Neural with 32 steps that he inspired me to do, without all of this stop and start gaps, (Later I tried to create a strategy with the W7 stop gaps and it was just too difficult to program so I gave up) but just 32 step Neural and that did very well on these same 40 rolls. $10,000 bankroll needed though! 35 wins, 5 losses, 88% wins, $6841 win for a session average of $171 win. Again that uses 20X the bankroll as the Cowtip and those 5 losses were like this:-743, -704, -2374, -12, and -38. So not every player is going to take $10K to the table, bet the darkside and hope to win less than $200 a session with the possibility of losing THOUSANDS each time.

Al, I think a few years ago on the old axispower board that I won about 57% of the time and my average win was a little less than one beginning wager.

I think when you go to a casino that you must use consistency in the way you play and use the realistic approach to try and break even.

The positive approach is to win money, but to overcome the house edge you must limit your options on the table to lower house edge wagers and the fewer the better . In my case , I always have a lone DP on the felt until it is killed by the shooter . Then I wait for a new shooter.

I began playing craps during the later part of 2000 and I flip-flopped around for about three years with a very small bankroll before I finally dedicated myself to the way I play now. Even today, I look back and see why I went down the paths that I did then to reach where I am today . The pedestal isn`t high but the journey has been fun. This "humble man still takes a low bed".

I still think the best way to approach the Dont , if you have a big enough bankroll is to make a DP wager and lay the max odds. The 7 and 11 on the comeout are killers for the darkside player.

I guess that now that my bankroll has grown that I should pursue the laying of odds with more viger and vitality than I have in years past.

When I used Professor H`s Dont Pass Odds Progression , the thing that always got to me was that when you got into the progression and were hit with a loss , almost all of your profit was gone.

I think that is the problem with any progression laying odds (and maybe even those taking odds).

Sanford Wong posting on Heavy`s old board said the heck with pressing wagers ---just figure out the max you are willing to place on a number and bet that over and over (He was referring to making place bets on Controlled Rollers).

So probably on a $5 table that has 20X Odds, the way to play is to wager the table minimum $5 on the come out and after a point is established lay $120 on 6 and 8 , lay $150 on 5 and 9 and lay $200 on 4 and 10. Each point win would be $105.

Damn , ya`ll are starting to make me think again. The reason I drift away from time to time is so nothing different enters my mind, but I guess that is why we live in an organic world.

For the edification of our newer members, here is Professor H's Don't progression:

Professor H's method of play on the Don't is intended to accomplish two things:
(1) playing time, and (2) occasional comparatively large wins.

Lay odds progressively, increasing the Don't pass line bet only after reaching the maximum table odds.

To lay odds progressively, use an odds table similar to the one below. This odds table is for use with an initial don't pass line bet of $5 beginning with 1x odds.

The far left column contains the number of consecutive 7-outs, the line bet, and the odds won in multiples of the line bet.

The columns under the point numbers contain the dollar amount of the odds laid, and, in bold, the payoff on the odds.

This table begins with 1x odds, increasing to 2X after three consecutive 7-outs.

Naturals and craps are ignored when counting consecutive 7-outs.

After the third 7-out in a row, the total amount won increases by one initial line bet ($5 in this case) with each successive win. In other words, row 3 wins a total of $10, row 4 $15, row 5 $20, row 6 $25, row 7 $30, and so on. This progression is conservative, and results from some odds wagers winning fractional multiples of the line bet when the line bet is $10.

Do not make any Don't come bets. (If you have a bankroll large enough to make don't come bets, begin with 2x or 3x odds, rather than 1x odds.)

After any point is made (won), start over at line 1.

To minimize losses to a run of winning points, either (1) switch to the Pass line, playing your favorite Pass line method, (2) do not lay odds on the Don't pass line bet, or (3) stop betting on the shooter until he/she sevens-out. The following link will take you to a graphic presentation of Profeessor H's strategy:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/profhiii.jpg/

Hats off to Kelph for posting this on another thread awhile back. You can read that thread here:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=745

~heavy

DylanFreake, I wouldn't change a thing that you are doing. It has gotten you this far hasn't it? On the computer the lay bets don't do as well as the don't pass bets. I have some methods in WC that lay the point, you would think that they would do better than the don't pass, but they don't over the long run. That Vig that the casinos charge, and around here upfront, is the equalizer for the lay bets. Also you are always betting more to win less on the lay bets, so if you lose 1 or two you can barley break even after that, especially if you start replacing they lay bets on a loss, which I know that you would never do.

I was actually talking about making the table minimum DP wager and then laying odds after a point ios established.

I don`t know how anyone could come out ahead by making Lay bets. It`s too much bet for too little profit after you pay the vig.

Last week I was playing at Bellagio next to a guy that would not bet until a point of 5,9, 4 or 10 was established. After a 5 or 9 was established he would make a lay bet of $300; after the 4 or 10 was established he would Lay $400. He ended the session down two bets .

He did tell me that before the high end strip casinos trimmed down to double or 3X4X5X odds that he did well on 10X or 20Xodds tables, betting a Table minimum DP and laying Maximum odds.

I told him he could find that at Casino Royale , now. He looked at me like I was half crazy and the pretty little dealer acted like I had blasphemed the Bellagio just by mentioning that name. I just told them, "Hell, I`m from Arkansas , I ain`t proud!"

The Lay bettor left the table and I remained eventually leaving losing two units, myself.

The guy who had made money at the table was a Rightside player who would only say that he was from South Texas who was playing a perpetual Pass/Come with no odds.

He came to the table and got a $20,000 marker .

He then made a $25 Pass line bet . After a point was established he made a $50 Come bet. After the come traveled he made a $100 come bet. After that bet traveled , he would make a $200 Come bet. When that one traveled he would make an $800 Come bet. He would keep going up to $1600, then $3200 and finally $5000. The only time he reduced his Pass/Come wagers were after a "yo" win , at which time his next Pas/come wager would be $25 and the progression began again.

He probably played for 45 minutes or an hour and left with $47000 ($27,000 in profit).

He never shot the dice, just made money.

My thoughts about that way of play was a concern about the seven being tossed when he had $5000 on each box number , which could have happened , but didn`t while he was playing.

Which way of play is the right way----who knows? The winning way at the time is the best way for that time.

The main thing is to have a plan making low edge bets and playing within your bankroll.

If you can find a game (most likely in Vegas) where they only collect the vig on the win and they let you push the house on the lay amounts - e.g. lay $70 on the 4 or 10 to win $35 with a $1 vig - then lay bets can work. You're getting the vig down in the 1% range. Otherwise, you are correct. That 5% number is a tad much to overcome.

It would be nice if some of you guys who play Vegas regularly could give us a list of casinos you know that collect the vig after the win instead of in advance - and whether or not they'll let you push them on the breakage. Hint hint.

DF: MP said a while back on one of my brain farts to place the red to smooth out the 8/3 odds against you on the CO. Haven't tried it yet, but why not.
Might run it thru wincraps to get a feeling for how it will work. I am sure he is referring to PL wagers greater than $5 bucks.

At Bellagio they charge the vig up front on the 5 and 9. On the 4 and 10 , they only take the vig from a win.

Why they don`t do all vigs the same----I just don`t understand. But I also don`t own the Bellagio.