Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Pretty good for a random shooter, right? Do you bet on randies? I do. I have probably made as much on randies, if not more than on DIs. And it wasn't playing the dark side..although that works too. Somebody of import on this forum has stated he would go $18 6 and 8 on practically anybody who exhibited at least a rhythm roll and hit the same spot. I was surprised to hear that the table dump at Rosa's roll was only $187K. What does that tell you?

22Inside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:30 am

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:12 am Patricia was from the town I went to high school in. Hope to match that roll some day.

I'll start with being happy to break the century mark. Baby steps

Other then us being from the same town, I was only a 40 minute drive from the spot of the roll at that time. I wish I wold of decided to hit AC that night instead of make S'mores.....lol

heavy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:15 pm I would simply say that in a random game, over the long run you're better off locking up a win early. Keep some action on the table if you wish - but play with your surplus winnings after you've locked up a win. There may be that streak of three or four consecutive sixes that Irish mentioned before, but there's no guarantee that the next toss won't be the ugly number. Low vig bets, variance, and a little bit of money management win the day.

Okay, I make no claim to understand the science or math of probability and variance in depth. Heavy your thought "in a random game...you're better off locking up a win early" is true and is also conventional wisdom. Sure, its a good idea to win early, and remove your session "buy in" from play and continue to play only with some of the profit. EXCEPT, in a random game with a slightly negative expectation/EV, your mathemetically more like to rack up an "early moderate loss" than an early win. Your mathematical chances of being "up" or "down" from your buy-in amount, regardless of how long or short a session you have, is essentially the same depending on the cumulative EV of all wagers made.
There is variance, and there are "streaks" of variance that favor the wagers you've made (positive variance) and streaks of variance *against" the wagers you've made (negative variance).

Mathematically, a "streak" is just a series of random event trials that are skewed to be atypical to the bell curve or "normative distribution" of random results. Statistically, 7s should show up 1/6th of the time, 6s and 8s 5/36ths of the time, etc. In and of itself a streak is neither a "winning streak" nor "losing streak". It only becomes a "winning streak" (or not) depending on the specific wagers one makes. For example, a series or "streak" of PSOs would be a great "Winning Streak" for betting the don't pass with Max Odds. It would be a horrific losing streak for betting passline with Max Odds.

I guess I am not saying new nor innovative above. Lucky streaks do "exist". They correspond with "high positive variance" favoring a particular players betting strategy. Patricia Demauro's famous 154 roll "streak" was neither inherently a winning nor losing streak. It was just a streak, and if you were at the table that fateful day in 2009, you could have benefited from it to varying degrees, depending on how you wagered. If you had consistently bet "don't pass with max lay odds" for all 154 rolls (replacing your wager each time the point number was hit), you would have had an abysmally BAD session. I don't know if statistics are available on how many points were "made" in those famous 154 rolls.

Not sure if this is true or not....

May 23th 2009 at The Borgata Hotel Casino and SpaAtlantic City, New Jersey

4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:50 am Not sure if this is true or not....

May 23th 2009 at The Borgata Hotel Casino and SpaAtlantic City, New Jersey

4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins

Should........
......May 23th 2009 at The Borgata Hotel Casino and SpaAtlantic City, New Jersey

4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins

become proven FAKE NEWS

then it got by the Wizard of Odds
and
a MEGA NUMBER of others for a decade
to date

just me saying
w c

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:50 am Not sure if this is true or not....

May 23th 2009 at The Borgata Hotel Casino and SpaAtlantic City, New Jersey

4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins

r_ventura: Let's assume it is true. Thanks for finding me the statistic on number of pass line wins during that 154 roll streak.
So as I was saying in an earlier post, a hard core Dark Side player who always bets don't pass with odd would have had an abysmally bad session if he was at that table for any significant length of time. It was a streak...and a streak that would have hurt dark-siders and been great for passline bettors.

There are some stats being thrown around in this thread about the house loss on Patricia DeMauro's roll. I think folks were saying that Borgata didn't take an extreme beating that night....only a moderate one. That's probably based on the combo of bets players were making, players avoiding pressing/progressions, etc.

UNHH!! Irish brave, have you factored in the times that you got ahead and then became a loser?
JP is a bead swinging Irishman; and the rest of that line is that 7% end up winning. UNHH!!

irish wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:58 am Blackcloud. Yes. It's still a complete fabrication (lie) that he made up to sell nonsense. This a simple probability and variance equation. See mainframe's post. If you can't or don't want to do the math, think about it generalities. Does probability and variance at the craps table tend to favor the house or the player? Given the answer to that question, do you really think that 90% of players will be ahead after 10 or 12 decisions? In a game where you have no edge, if you wanted to give yourself the BEST chance to win $50, you would choose the best wager on the table, and make a single $50 wager.

P.S. That whole religious angle for JP was marketing genius. Dupes eat that crap up. We call that "virtue signalling" in our house. It's used to get you to believe something because they're perceived as being "virtuous." It's also usually a lie. Most people who actually are virtuous, rarely lead with it or mention it. This is how it works,

"I'm John Petrack. I'm a church-going (most often "christian"), married, veteran. I fly the flag every day, support our men in blue, love my country, and have several support our troops magnets on my car! Won't you buy my snake oil to put on your 100% bran flakes?"

Dupes: "nom, nom, nom!"

P.P.S.

Just to clarify, I'm neither a "beadswinger" nor am I Irish.

Irish,

That is an eye opening observation. I really like the name..Virtue signaling.
There are examples of it everywhere. I believe I use some form of it myself, everyday. Not sure how I feel about that.

As for JP. In my mind, I felt he was just saying that the people who get ahead while gambling, usually gamble it all back...And then some. At that level, (my paraphrasing), I believe to be true.
I took it as a form of his pessimism.

Memo
BTY...You said..'in my house'..Is this something used at home in discussions, or is it some sort of well known marketing ploy that is written about and studied?

Who might you be referring to, Irish? Mister fix-it who broke it before he fixed it? Heh,heh. It still amazes me the bs people buy into. My father told me if I wanted to make money, go into the God business. I disappointed him, but that's another tale.

UNHH!! BC would care to know what FACTS the fake irish knows about JP. Me bet that they don't match mine. UNHH!!

UNHH!! How many times fake irish been shot at and by what ? UNHH!!!

First time I read a BC post besides all the early Hollywood movie indian dialect, he was using the word Squaw. I thought this is either an inside joke or just racist pejorative crap. I guess you early forum guys know what the real thing is. Regarding what is real and what is fake..It seems the only truth you will find any more is on a crap table. What happens is exactly what happens. No fakery and no bs. The fake news about what happened at that table often comes afterwards. What I admire on this forum is the warts and approach we are encouraged to take.

I posted something late last night that wasn't' even *that* politically charged, but decided to retract my post because this is primarily a forum about craps, betting strategies, dice influencing, casino conditions, and gambling. I'd rather not get to far into the weeds of religion, politics, or even ethics.
I'd rather focus on what unites us than what divides us: A shared "hobby" or "pastime" or "opportunity to make money".

mainframe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:55 pm I posted something late last night that wasn't' even *that* politically charged, but decided to retract my post because this is primarily a forum about craps, betting strategies, dice influencing, casino conditions, and gambling. I'd rather not get to far into the weeds of religion, politics, or even ethics.
I'd rather focus on what unites us than what divides us: A shared "hobby" or "pastime" or "opportunity to make money".

I'm with you mainframe. Thanks. There are plenty of other forums to air that sort of stuff. Let's stick to what we do best here.

Yeah, I started a response but the phone rang and you guys posted before I got back to it. I'll post it anyway. You guys knock off the bullshit. You're beginning to make this place look like crapsforum.com.

Thanks.

~h

Thank you Heavy,.

Now the interesting thing about a streak or “Set of high variance outcomes on independent random events” is Figuring out how to recognize a streak and profit from it when it occurs. The problem is each toss of the dice is independent and has nothing to do with past results. I streak is only obvious by tracking/charting past results. but you have no idea when the streaks going to end.

All my streaks end toooo soon.

Is that a trend? I bet I’m not the only one suffering from streak shortage?

N8

And it is said you never know when you are in one. If you use regression and are in the money quickly after the
first couple of throws, you are definitely ready to catch one both money wise and psychologically. After all, if you are even or ahead when even a short roll is going on, you don't lose anything. I just use the Heavy press system and pull money. Or if I'm feeling more conservative, same bet, same bet. Either way you make bucks, right?

UNHH!! How bout age 3 to 33 ? Everything, my older sisters hated to play with BC ! Then in late 66 it all went away. So BC quit for nearly 20 years. Started back in the mid 80s. Aware that the little black cloud was forever with me. BC uses his lousy draws effectively. UNHH!!