Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

May I suggest what might be the best money management move that will get you to your win goal MUCH MORE OFTEN then you might imagine. (Assuming you actually have a win goal established when you begin and the discipline to quit once you are fortunate enough to hit it.)

I will demonstrate with a real life story where I used this approach with great success and have witnesses on the board who were there to see it. It was in Biloxi and during on of Heavy's gatherings. Heavy was shooting from straight out and a hand was developing. We had a betting class earlier where I was suggesting that the FULL PRESS of your first hit had a LOT of merit "over time." You NEED to have a good hand to capture the power or the full press. "Over time" you will indeed catch those occasional long hands that make you good money.

I was starting out with $120 across that week. That means $10-4/10 $20-5/9 $30-6/8. Full pressing the first hit. This play is NOT the money management move I am about to suggest. Heavy's hand got into the 30 roll range. I had my bets pressed nicely. I had a fair bit of profit (hundreds) in my rack. I could smell a payout that would entail me getting a purple chip payout. "Just need a couple more hits on the 6 and I'll be ready for the purple chip," I thought to myself.

Doing a quick check of my bets on the layout I saw that I had $495 in action at that moment. Then my mind showed me what it would look like to watch the dealer sweep it all away. The purple chip I wanted so badly was lying right there on the table. I had it all ready!

I tossed the dealer a red and said, "Take me down! Everything!" He asked what the red was for and I said add it to my across bets and pay me with ONE purple. And that is exactly what he did.

Therein lies the magic. Look at what you have won so far. Look at what you have lying on the table. Add those amounts together - if they are anywhere close to your win goal - take it all down and get outta there:-)

Yeah I know - not near as much fun as staying for the big win. I PROMISE you - you'll be far ahead of the guy who endlessly leaves all his money out there for the sheriff to collect.

Shrewd money management it the ONLY way to beat any casino game.

Wizard.

Well said, I'd have flipped multiple reds or green for that purple

The $204 across
Take one or two hits

and

reduce the $ amount at risk to loss should THE SEVEN show
seems less disruptive
when employed on craps tables lightly populated
( 0ne or up to four total players spread out over both ends { L & R }

and

for
those

Higher populated craps tables
placing wagers in more commonly experienced ROUNDED $ U S D amounts.....

may keep THE ACTION flowing flawlessly

and
.....The SMOOTH OPERATORS .....Slick out a PROFITABLE .....POSITIVE $ ADVENTURE

just me saying

w c

Well well, I did the maths all week and came to a conclusion.

Regression: you invest too much on bad days. It can sting your bankroll, but used well, it can make sense. 1-2 hit is what works best then progression kicks in.

Same bets till you are paid off: you don’t take advantage of the money you get paid to get paid more. You will get hurt bad on swings, since you don’t recover quickly.

Strait Progression : I’m taking press 10-25% every bets with no powerpresses. It seem like the winner on math side.

Powerpress moves: only way to get higher then your pay grade overtime. But from what I saw, maths don’t like missing a collect. Only way to recover from it is to collect twice after a powerpress.

So I guess I have been playing wrong and leaving money on the tables in the last two years. Sad.

Best way to go by maths on a 15$ table:
18-30-42-66-90-90-180-210-420-420-420-900-900...

Or if you feel for regression.

90-60-90-120-150-300-420-900-900-900.

Tested it on my app for fun at 900 level and made 30k in 5 minutes...

DanF wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 8:23 pm Well well, I did the maths all week and came to a conclusion.

Regression: you invest too much on bad days. It can sting your bankroll, but used well, it can make sense. 1-2 hit is what works best then progression kicks in.

Same bets till you are paid off: you don’t take advantage of the money you get paid to get paid more. You will get hurt bad on swings, since you don’t recover quickly.

Strait Progression : I’m taking press 10-25% every bets with no powerpresses. It seem like the winner on math side.

Powerpress moves: only way to get higher then your pay grade overtime. But from what I saw, maths don’t like missing a collect. Only way to recover from it is to collect twice after a powerpress.

So I guess I have been playing wrong and leaving money on the tables in the last two years. Sad.

Best way to go by maths on a 15$ table:
18-30-42-66-90-90-180-210-420-420-420-900-900...

Or if you feel for regression.

90-60-90-120-150-300-420-900-900-900.

Tested it on my app for fun at 900 level and made 30k in 5 minutes...

Argh.... I guess you're a year and half ahead of me. I just posted RE: your regression strategy on the other thread and I really like it. The $220 inside down to $66 inside...one hit and you're in the green. That appeals to me because after getting my money back in the rack, I'm not afraid to play the power press and go heavy if the numbers are hitting. Yes, a few PSO's in a row are not fun for the bankroll, but at least in testing for me it seems to work well. So does leaving the $220 out there until recouping and then pressing once you've recovered the lay, but it's harder to do IRL when you get upside down.

Bentonck wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 9:33 am

DanF wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 8:23 pm Well well, I did the maths all week and came to a conclusion.

Regression: you invest too much on bad days. It can sting your bankroll, but used well, it can make sense. 1-2 hit is what works best then progression kicks in.

Same bets till you are paid off: you don’t take advantage of the money you get paid to get paid more. You will get hurt bad on swings, since you don’t recover quickly.

Strait Progression : I’m taking press 10-25% every bets with no powerpresses. It seem like the winner on math side.

Powerpress moves: only way to get higher then your pay grade overtime. But from what I saw, maths don’t like missing a collect. Only way to recover from it is to collect twice after a powerpress.

So I guess I have been playing wrong and leaving money on the tables in the last two years. Sad.

Best way to go by maths on a 15$ table:
18-30-42-66-90-90-180-210-420-420-420-900-900...

Or if you feel for regression.

90-60-90-120-150-300-420-900-900-900.

Tested it on my app for fun at 900 level and made 30k in 5 minutes...

Argh.... I guess you're a year and half ahead of me. I just posted RE: your regression strategy on the other thread and I really like it. The $220 inside down to $66 inside...one hit and you're in the green. That appeals to me because after getting my money back in the rack, I'm not afraid to play the power press and go heavy if the numbers are hitting. Yes, a few PSO's in a row are not fun for the bankroll, but at least in testing for me it seems to work well. So does leaving the $220 out there until recouping and then pressing once you've recovered the lay, but it's harder to do IRL when you get upside down.

I retargetted my regressions to bet 15-90-90-15 either inside or even. Regress to 15-60-60-15. Two hits on 6&8 you’re in the green. Progression only on outside numbers never regress it.

Does anyone Mad Professors 204 Regresson?

Noah

memo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:13 am

Dicepops wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:55 pm

memo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:53 pm Pappy and I were playing at the tables quite a bit at about the time Mad Professor introduced the 204 bet. Not that it was new. All the moves were discovered well before that time (of course), however it was a combination rarely used. When done properly, it is a thing of beauty. Most dealers really like it once they catch on to what you are trying to accomplish. Memo

I remember reading MP's 204. Every number pays $50 for $1, right? But Don't remember his progression. Press every other hit?

Dicepops,
MP would take two hits. (96 bucks), Then regress to 66inside. He had some sort of progression after that which is pretty straight forward. The problem is when you tell the dealer you are betting 204 across betting 25, 35 and 42 respectively... They get brain locked at 204.
Even worse if you have a pass line bet. In that case your across bet is 162, 169, or 179.

Dealers are used to adding multiples and visualizing in, say, columns. This bet asks them to add in rows and non multiples....Tilt! Easy to understand the confusion when you think about it. I strive to avoid the, Tilt.

Memo

NOAH! Is this what you wanted???

Wizard wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 7:41 pm

Doing a quick check of my bets on the layout I saw that I had $495 in action at that moment. Then my mind showed me what it would look like to watch the dealer sweep it all away. The purple chip I wanted so badly was lying right there on the table. I had it all ready!

I tossed the dealer a red and said, "Take me down! Everything!" He asked what the red was for and I said add it to my across bets and pay me with ONE purple. And that is exactly what he did.

Therein lies the magic. Look at what you have won so far. Look at what you have lying on the table. Add those amounts together - if they are anywhere close to your win goal - take it all down and get outta there:-)

Yeah I know - not near as much fun as staying for the big win. I PROMISE you - you'll be far ahead of the guy who endlessly leaves all his money out there for the sheriff to collect.

Shrewd money management it the ONLY way to beat any casino game.

Wizard.

I've been playing this way for a little over a year now and it has made a huge difference in reducing volatility and increasing profits.

Only time I let it ride till the bitter end now is the sessions where I'm ahead right out of the gate. When I go back and look at the session later it was almost always the wrong choice to let it ride.

mssthis1 wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 8:26 am I've been playing this way for a little over a year now and it has made a huge difference in reducing volatility and increasing profits.

mssthis1, what is your trigger for regressing bets down? are you just eyeballing it after a certain number of rolls?

Banker dude, I am not familiar with missthis1, but I have been playing this way for at least 7-8 years,with great results. I use the second strongest breakpoint of 24 rolls as my trigger, actually it is 18 rolls as, I get off at 18-19 and go back on on roll 25-26. 98% of all rollers do not get past roll 24, so if you count back six rolls ( seven shows once every six rolls ),you get to 18. You need more than three hits in those six rolls ( 18-24 ), to have more in your rack ( if you come all down on roll 18 ),than you do if you come all down on roll 18. Over any decent amount of sessions, you will be way ahead be doing this easy money management move. For some confirmation, go read Howard rock and rollers reports. Count how many of those " good " rolls get past 24-25. And most ,if not all,of his reports are group shoots. Not likely you would get even close to that many " good " rolls on your individual sessions. Of course it would also preclude most of the trip reports that have $300 4&10 s or $420 6&8s in them, now what fun would that be ????? On the other hand supposedly the main reason we all play this game is to win money,even though we all also know ,that this is not a true statement.....rick

Thanks SR.

Irish,

This may not be the correct place, however, I would like to understand the...mathematical basis to the idea of "break points."

Memo

Irish,

The break point conversation is interesting and your explanation is clear...

irish wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 11:42 am
Even if no "good" sevens are rolled, just because the shooter got to two or three standard deviations away from expected, it does not have any impact on the statistical probability of the next roll. The previous rolls have no importance or relationship to the future rolls. Hope this helps.

I have read your comments time and again....What if anything, can we learn from this beside....?
"The previous rolls have no importance or relationship to the future rolls."
What if any, application is there?


Memo

Irish Setter says: "The snarky answer will offend all of the innumerates.... so I'll forego."

Really? Don't change your spots. Hit us, with your best shot! You'll feel better. A little snark never hurt anyone.

Pops

My favorite money management move depends on a few variables.
Mostly what the shooter is doing. Is he or she is attempting a controlled toss? How have they been tossing during the hand? That's not to say that a 7 or any number can't be next - but it just can HELP the outcome, even if it is a slight help. After all, isn't that what DI is all about? So if the shooter meets the criteria, I like $110 inside BUT I ALWAYS WAIT FOR A 2nd BOX NUMBER after the point. Sometimes it's stupid and I missed a paying hit, many times the 2nd toss is a crap or a 4 or 10 that I'm not on. But seems like there have been more PSO's than anything else where it has saved my ass. If that 2nd box number is tossed, with a qualified shooter, that's when I place $110 inside. Regressing down to $44 after 2 hits. Then full press. Next hit, spread out to 4 and 10. If they hit, buy em for a quarter. Then collect and full press every other hit. Have I been burned with the $110 inside where a 7 comes on the 3rd toss?
Of course it's gambling! But more often than not it works for me.
On RR, a totally different approach. See what the table trend is and tip-toe dark when appropriate.
But on the darkside, I never lay odds. Flat bets only. If I'm lucky enough to get past the sheriff and deputy on a DP 4 or 10 for $50, I'll place the 6 and 8 for $24 each but take them down after 1 hit.

You are very right. Your purple was sitting right there. I think we have to get comfortable AGAIN at higher price ranges. Do you remember how your chest tightened and your breathing changed when you first pressed up to a $50 and then $100. When we are used to $5 and $10 bets, seeing $100 at risk puts your brain in a bit of a stew.
I can feel the pressure and the excitement building and that alters my discipline. I go from calm planning and executing to hoping and gambling.

I can tell you, I won't be able to think clearly as my chips on numbers get up to $200 + because I have not had that kind of success very often. But I am pushing myself to that level.
I remember reading that if you are not pulling the card you need on the river in Texas Hold'em once in a while, you are leaving money on the table. And I was. If I didn't have a hand in 4 cards I RARELY stayed for the river. Then I started to, and my game went to a new level.

I think the same is true for purple level craps. I see it coming my way. I WILL be as confident and as casual at $300 as I am at 30 one day soon.

Elskid. Welcome to the forum.

ElsKid wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:56 am You are very right. Your purple was sitting right there. I think we have to get comfortable AGAIN at higher price ranges. Do you remember how your chest tightened and your breathing changed when you first pressed up to a $50 and then $100. When we are used to $5 and $10 bets, seeing $100 at risk puts your brain in a bit of a stew.
I can feel the pressure and the excitement building and that alters my discipline. I go from calm planning and executing to hoping and gambling.

I can tell you, I won't be able to think clearly as my chips on numbers get up to $200 + because I have not had that kind of success very often. But I am pushing myself to that level.
I remember reading that if you are not pulling the card you need on the river in Texas Hold'em once in a while, you are leaving money on the table. And I was. If I didn't have a hand in 4 cards I RARELY stayed for the river. Then I started to, and my game went to a new level.

I think the same is true for purple level craps. I see it coming my way. I WILL be as confident and as casual at $300 as I am at 30 one day soon.

Welcome to the forums ElsKid. Good first post.

It's definitely true what you are saying that everyone has a boundary where they can start to get uncomfortable with the amount of action on the table. What helped me somewhat in this regard was having a betting strategy that you've memorized and have confidence in. I work on my betting in every home practice session. By reducing the thought process involved at the table, it can help with losing focus on your shooting and being better able to take full advantage of your breakout hands when they come along.

Of course the other way to combat this is to do some form of regression. Taking money off the table and locking up profits is never a bad thing. Maybe you have some numbers pressed up and they've gone to sleep with other numbers taking their place. In that case, reduce your exposure some on those numbers that haven't been paying their rent in a while.

Good points all. Get confidence in your throw and betting dark and right. Work on your ability to read a table's peculiarities, if any. Play small until you have yr. LZ and loft figured out. You can also do this by watching. Who is hitting points and how are they doing it? Once you get confident, you can up yr. initial bets and regress. Don't leave a lot of money on the table. Yesterday I played some random shooters. Same bet, same bet. Two hits, the 6 and 8 are payed for. Regress from $18 each down to $12 each. Same bet, same bet. Within 6 rolls I'm nicely up there ahead. Bring me down.