Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

22Inside wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:44 am
I hear you on the 4 and 10. They are hard to resist and I still hear their siren's call. It was a difficult realization for me to accept that I'm tossing way more inside numbers with my new toss tweaks, since for a long time I was an even number bettor. Lately, the 4's and 10's have become outliers for me and this latest evolution in my betting is a result of that. Taking that $30 I was placing on the 4 and 10 when I was experimenting with $96 across and moving it inside has helped with getting to a profit position much more quickly and now allows me to spread out to them in a better position in case they do start showing up.

22I
I am a fool for that 'siren's call'...So give me a little space on that issue...
It drives me nuts when they start of come out, and I am not betting it..
You are coming out with 110 inside. What would be the problem in running a side bet. On a 10 dollar table, 10 each 4,10. One can even same bet the first hit on one of them, and only be down 2 bucks....Then run a regular progression from then on. I would even consider leaving it up after your first inside regression, especially if it had hit prior..

It is obvious to me that you are very clear about the numbers you toss these days...and I am trying to satisfy that inner gambler in me...I dunno, when I start rolling them, 4,10's seem to cluster.

Memo

22Inside,
On step one when you regress, do you just do the 4 and 10 or do you regress all others to 3 units also?

ThomasYo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:54 pm 22Inside,
On step one when you regress, do you just do the 4 and 10 or do you regress all others to 3 units also?

Thomas,

I've posted two evolutions of my betting strategy thus far. The first was a $96 across (i.e. 3 units across), where I would regress just the 4 and 10 and go to $66 inside (3 units on inside numbers).

This most recent evolution of my main betting strategy, that I posted yesterday earlier in this thread, is $110 inside (5 units on inside numbers). The regression is to $66 inside (3 units) but during the first phase I am not betting the 4 and 10 at all.

Hope this is clear. Thanks for the question. Just ask if you have more or want to provide any feedback.

22 Inside
Thanks for your reply.

memo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:00 pm

22Inside wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:44 am
I hear you on the 4 and 10. They are hard to resist and I still hear their siren's call. It was a difficult realization for me to accept that I'm tossing way more inside numbers with my new toss tweaks, since for a long time I was an even number bettor. Lately, the 4's and 10's have become outliers for me and this latest evolution in my betting is a result of that. Taking that $30 I was placing on the 4 and 10 when I was experimenting with $96 across and moving it inside has helped with getting to a profit position much more quickly and now allows me to spread out to them in a better position in case they do start showing up.

22I
I am a fool for that 'siren's call'...So give me a little space on that issue...
It drives me nuts when they start of come out, and I am not betting it..
You are coming out with 110 inside. What would be the problem in running a side bet. On a 10 dollar table, 10 each 4,10. One can even same bet the first hit on one of them, and only be down 2 bucks....Then run a regular progression from then on. I would even consider leaving it up after your first inside regression, especially if it had hit prior..

It is obvious to me that you are very clear about the numbers you toss these days...and I am trying to satisfy that inner gambler in me...I dunno, when I start rolling them, 4,10's seem to cluster.

Memo

Hi memo.

Yes, I've been paying much more attention to my signature numbers as of late. Nate and I have been having lots of Bone Tracker discussions of late and I'm spending more time with it as a result.

If I was going to add the side bet to do a $130 across, it wouldn't be all that different than the $96 across play I was doing before and that I found too volatile. Just committing and exposing more bankroll to an already volatile play.

All betting strategies are a compromise of edge versus action. Going from $110 inside to $130 across is a trade off of higher edge for more action on the table. The converse is true as well. Staying at $110 inside versus $130 across is a trade off of lower edge for less action on the table.

irish wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:50 am You've developed a strategy that can't be supported by your shooting skill, it's more reliant on luck than skill, which is no bueno if you've got skill.

Once you've done your homework on BT, roll out your strategy on wincraps using the roll your own function. It'll tell you whether you've really got an edge on all of those inside numbers.

Irish,

As usual, your comments tend to ground me...
Further evidence that I have a strong 'Gambler' streak...

Memo

irish wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:50 am

All betting strategies are a compromise of edge versus action. Going from $110 inside to $130 across is a trade off of higher edge for more action on the table. The converse is true as well. Staying at $110 inside versus $130 across is a trade off of lower edge for less action on the table.

Either way, that's a lot of edge to overcome, every hand (granted, there's a PL bet somewhere in there). In my opinion, insurmountable on a regular basis, regardless of shooting skill. On those days that you're doing well, it's likely that it's due to good variance and much less due to good skill because it's equally unlikely that your edge over the house is that high. On a day where you're demonstrating skill (edge is manifesting), but getting no assistance from variance, then you'll still end up down. You're simply taking a little bite from an elephant. Those days when you're experiencing negative variance, well, you know what happens.

You've developed a strategy that can't be supported by your shooting skill, it's more reliant on luck than skill, which is no bueno if you've got skill.

Once you've done your homework on BT, roll out your strategy on wincraps using the roll your own function. It'll tell you whether you've really got an edge on all of those inside numbers.

The scrapheap of DI's is built on FOMO, not on lack of skill.

Sound advice as always, Irish. I appreciate the feedback.

I don't spend any time in WinCraps currently and haven't really invested the time to get proficient with it, other that briefly kicking the tires on it when I first installed it. MIght be time to change that.

In my opinion, insurmountable on a regular basis, regardless of shooting skill

.

This sentence sounds ominous, makes me almost afraid to play. I know i took it out of context but it and all of the things i have learned on this forum from the guys that have played for many years has really made me have some respect for the difficulty of the game.

Honest question, Is there no regression or betting strategy that our skill level will allow us to be successful on a regular basis? I know nothing works all the time and anything can work some of the time. I guess if you are playing a negative expectation game you shouldnt expect to be successful regularly.

I guess i know the answer to my question. I just have difficulty reconciling my desire and anticipation of winning with the cold hard reality of the edge the house has over us.

May the variance be with you. Because a combination of preferred variance, shooting skill and betting smarts will make you some money. And I said preferred variance..which can mean either way..good or bad. You can play both sides. And like I've posted before you will know fast..maybe
three or four rolls. This is why I like to start small. What kills us is the denial we're in deep doodoo. Hope is irrelevant in this game. You're getting what yr getting and if you ain't getting, get gone. Take a break for 15, 20 minutes. Now all I have to do is follow my own advice.

I tested out a similar strategy for a while 22in.

30-42-60-90-120-180-300...
I found it was pretty awesome to profit as well.
But one leak it has is a early collect to investment ratio. Altho really good. It can get a lot more profitable with a collect at the 60ish level. To cover your investments.

30-42-60-66-90-120-180-300
Was my most profitable overtime.
You can also see where you're at from bets as you can see...most hands don't pass 3-4 hits, so you should plan to collect third.

Thanks Dan.

I also like to play the $110 inside with a goal of 3 hits before regressing to $66 inside. But I will usually make a regression after 6 tosses if I haven't made the 3rd hit. After going to 66i, say for example 5 is the point, I will press both the 6 & 8 if either hits - drop $3 and press back to $30 each and press the 9 back to $25 if it hits and collect $11. two hits and basically back to original bet. All pressing after that is whatever number hits. As usual short hand hurt but medium and long hands make some money.

Nah, sometimes your just, "A voice crying out in the wilderness"

irish wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:52 am I know, I know. Irish is ^%#hole.

Irish,
I soo, disagree!
I speak for myself, but I am sure that many if not most of BM's are interested and want to understand all the you profess and say. As a matter of fact, I have said many times on this board, that what you say keeps me tethered to the ground. I have to fight the inner gambler that is within me...Your writings do just that..

I have an advanced degree in education as many of us here on the board do..That should qualify me...As you say, to 'get it'. Sadly, that is not true.
My education is not in the area of expertise as yours...I have professed that my learning of the statistical analysis that you are so adapt at, has waned over the years for me.

That being said, I do not feel that an advanced education really is that important to understand what is going on. I toss regularly with a guy that inspects produce for a living. He is brilliant. Another that was enlisted in the military. He ran rings around the supposedly educated people that were 'superior' to him.
I am the same person today as the smart determined kid 40 years ago, I have just amassed a lot of information in a narrow area of expertise...As you have. My education did not make me smarter...More focused maybe...And strange as it may seem, it could be a detriment in some ways.

So, no, you are not an ^%#hole....That is, until you want to be.
You are, and can be a teacher. A good educator does not resort to denunciation, and browbeating, belittling.....That is what a ^%#hole is..

I just don't buy it. Our dealings in the past have always been way more positive than that. You taught more than I could absorb. Does it not make sense that I want more..?
If you want to chop this up, highlight phrases, and return acrid remarks...So be it. Just remember that I am trying to be sane and sensible...I can take it though if necessary.
You are not talking to Harley.

BTW
I actually had another train of thought pertinent to something said earlier, and was thinking of starting a different thread, for fear of going astray on this one...Until the ^%#hole. thing came up...Sorry 22I if I did just that..

Memo

Irish.

Love your point of the % of hand making the cut.

But profitability isn't made with single hand or single bet math. It is a complex combination of events.

If say you get 7 losing hand and 3 winning hand average.
But the 3 winning hand covers the losses of the 7 others plus bring a profit...are you losing 70% of the time or are you investing into a systemic scheme that has brang you +ev play.

For exemple, poker, you can't win every hand. But you can devellop a +ev decision related to the outcome. You can't make a perfect plan, but you can put yourself in the right circonstances. Altho it doesn't guarantee a win. It can be statistically the best play to grow your bankroll overtime.

Bankerdude80 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:01 pm

22Inside wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:07 pm I never paid much attention to MP204 as it was way out of my comfort zone when I was first starting out. It still is even though I've long outlived my 22Inside moniker I might need to go dust that off and see if it can be broken down to a more modest level that would be more in line with my current bankroll and comfort zone.

Check out FREAK's posts on a modified MP204. I think Freak broke it down to $96 or so. I think MP's intent was the pyramiding of bets to get the $50 for $1 payout right out of the gate. I like the fact that you are war gaming your strategy without real money at risk. You gradually develop a comfort to betting at that level. On my latest lone wolf trip, my average hands were in the mid-teens. A few outliers were in the mid-twenties and mid-thirties. I had only one PSO and a few hands in the less than ten roll range. Almost Bell curve predictability. My guess is that your live tossing will yield similar results. If you can solidify a profit on mid-teen rolls you'll be in good position. Variance is a bitch, and when she's negative be prepared to walk away.

Should we refer to you as 96across+4 now?

On a side note, when I think at how sometimes I'll drop $100 into a slot machine without blinking an eye, and not bet the same amount on myself when I am tossing the dice confirms that I can be a moron. I have to revisit my betting strategy too. I've gotten very timid when betting now since the past year has been rough on my bankroll. I need to regain that betting confidence. Thanks for posting on this topic.

Late to the party but where do I find Freak' modified MP204. Searched this site and no find.

Dicepops wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:12 pm Late to the party but where do I find Freak' modified MP204. Searched this site and no find.

Sorry man. Let me see if I can find something.

Try here about halfway down (freak's second post on this thread page): http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforu ... 3&start=40

Some additional commentary here: https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/vi ... php?t=3947

There's more out there, I just don't have the time to hunt for it. You can get a lot of takeaways from Freak's dedicated thread here:

http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforu ... hp?t=3235

Thanks Bud. Some reading to do.

You know irish.

You pinpointed the exact reason my system works. Variance.

If you have an advantage throw, variance will grow on positive side if you bet in a manner to take advantage of it.

You might dig a hole someday, but what is important is how it reacts over 50-100+ sessions.

The real important number is bankroll exposure at throw #6 on average.

Maths says 1/6 of seven. Which means avg roll is 6. On the long run.

That means it can come in 1-12 rolls on average 6...higher is an anecdotal roll.

It also means you shouldn't plan for every hand to be short nor long. You should build up from your investments. And manage your bankroll with probabilities, but not as a gambler's fallacy.

Truth is, if you can have an edge. You should plan an early press n collect. Cuz overtime, you would overcome short rolls losses. The error most people make is to press and not collect enough under 6-10 roll on avg.