Exponential Odds Variant

[Americraps]

So I decided to add a wrinkle to the EOBS2 (exponential Odds Bootstrapper 2). I added a wrongside element to the betting. I chose the Heavy 7. Its a negative progression that goes like this 1 unit, 2units, lay out, 9 units, 18 units, 36 units, 72 units, quit. If you bust out, you lose 138 units. My units were $10 and I used a $2K BR to go with my $10K EOBS2 bankroll. My final srr was 5.67 on the book. Can you predict how I fared?

I won $1273 with EOBS2, and I won $65 with Heavy 7. Once again it comes down to long hands with EO, not srr. I had 4 hands over 20 , one 19 roll hand and three 17 roll hands, and several others in the teens.

I busted once with the Heavy 7, losing $1380 only to win $1377 on the same hand with EO.... Had I extended the Heavy 7 one more level, I would have escaped without the bustout.

I've heard comments like "hedges just cost you money in the long run" before, yet this hedge made me money while I was making money with EO. Is it a coincidence? Time will tell. I can see a case for raising the hedge to $15, but I will keep it at $10 for now until the BR grows enough to bootstrap up.

There were some interesting hands. A PSO is no longer a push, I make $10 profit. I had several long hands that ended with me sevening out when I was at the $90 level (4)on the Heavy 7 betting, which netted me $60 profit, while making way more than that on the EO part of the hand. Those hands were cool. Of course there were some hands that I lost money on both sides too.

Comments?

[Americraps]

I have since abandoned the Heavy 7 don't progression due to an abundance of comeout sevens, and tried a few others with similar failings.

Right now, I'm using a 2 part hedge.
1) I bet a flat $50 DP with a $9 hopping sevens on CO.
2) If I get to 4 numbers working with no repeaters on the EO side, I start a 7 step hopping sevens progression- $12,$15,$21,$30, $30, $30, $36, quit. If no seven has come by then, there should be some repeaters and I might be on my way to a big hand on the EO end of things. If the hedge hits, the hand is still a net loss but its less of a loss than if no hedge at all. It's possible to lose on both sides, but I plan to make it up on volume (joke)

I tossed a book with this method, but screwed up the payouts on the dark side, so I don't have any numbers to report.

[luxlogs]

Listen. Do you hear what I hear?

It's Sid pissing on Americraps shoes all the way from Pergatory.

[Americraps]

Once in a while everyone runs into a hand and thats what happened this afternoon at casino Americraps. Its been maybe 6 months since I've had a 50 roller, so I was due. This one was 51 rolls from start to finish. Guess how much I made using EOBS2? $10 units.

$13,275 profit. I got up to house max on the 9 and 10. This hand featured the 9. I hit 13 of them and with my press schedule I was at $100x odds by the 11th, so I got 3 juicy payers. Over $6K + profit on the nine.

I also hit nine 10s, and it takes 8 to get to 100x odds, so that was sweet too.


Going in to this hand, I was only up a few hundred bucks on 11 books, as my cumulative srr is currently below 6, but this one hand has enabled me to go to $20 units when I start the next book. I started with $10K BR and at my lowest I was at around $6K.

That's how EO works boys and girls, it's kinda like fishin. When you catch the big one, you've got a boat full. The key is to not run out of bait before the big one hits. I'm still working out my hedge strategy, nothing constructive to report on that one yet.

This sh$t works.

[mssthis1]

Good job. Hands like that are few and far between.

[Americraps]

Thanks mssthis- They are for me. BTW, I posted this story not to brag about my shooting, (as I said srr under 6) but to brag about EO. RC was a smart dude.

[luxlogs]

Yes RC was a Smart Dude that's why he didn't hedge. Not enough edge to hedge and still make a profit.

[Americraps]

Hi LL, I'm guessing that I will ultimately agree with your point of view, but I'm checking things out first to make sure.

[luxlogs]

Your like talking to my kids.

[London Shooter]

I think my view is pretty consistent on this - if the system needs a hedge to work then something doesn't sound right.

Either you are betting too much as you are using the hedge to feel more comfortable about your exposure, so just bet less on the original method and drop the hedge.

....or, it is the hedge that is making this system profitable - highly unlikely but if that is the case, drop the system and just bet the hedge

I like Heavy's quote - "trim you hedges and watch your profits grow"

[Americraps]

Hi London Shooter,
I'm experimenting with the hedge in an effort to even out the volatility and reduce the BR requirements for EO. I don't think there is anything wrong per se with EO, but I'm trying to tweak it a little to improve it. Ideally, I would be able to construct a hedge that wins a little when EO loses, and loses a little when EO wins, thus evening out the BR swings. In a perfect world, the hedge ends up a net winner too.

[luxlogs]

I think my view is pretty consistent on this - if the system needs a hedge to work then something doesn't sound right.

Either you are betting too much as you are using the hedge to feel more comfortable about your exposure, so just bet less on the original method and drop the hedge.

....or, it is the hedge that is making this system profitable - highly unlikely but if that is the case, drop the system and just bet the hedge

I like Heavy's quote - "trim you hedges and watch your profits grow"

What He Said

[Americraps]

OK, well you guys are assuming that a hedge can't win. I'm not so sure about that.

OK Deep lob #13 is done and I've doubled my bankroll basically with 1 hand. It took 12 books to get to that hand, but I got there eventually. I may have settled on a set- a 2v variant -22 on top 14 facing. BT says it performed well with 503 across hits, compared to 480 expected.

I made the move on switching my hedge from hopping seven on the CO to laying the 5 for $90 +3 on the CO. I threw the expected amount of 5s, and less sevens, so I think I lost money on the CO portion of the hedge. The other part of the hedge is a $50 DP and a hopping 7s progression whenever I have 4 numbers placed with odds, but no repeaters. I would have made more if I would have waited till I had 5 numbers with no repeaters on this book.

Even though this book featured an SRR of 6.55. I made $120 net on the hedge, bringing the total hedge BR to $3034, representing a win of $1034. I've used this hedge for a total of 7 books. I threw 11 less yos than expected, so my CO hedge must have benefitted from that.

On the EOBS2 part of my betting, I made $11,869 on this book. The highlight was a 51 roll hand that netted $13,275 profit. My BR is now $22,721, and I'm doubling my unit size to $20. Since it has not boostrapped itself higher, I am keeping the hedge at the previous level, so now it is effectively only 1/2 of the hedge that it used to be. When and if it gets to $4k hedge BR, I will increase the amounts.

[Americraps]

Book deep lob #14 $20 level is done and the results were very interesting. On one hand, I delivered my highest srr ever- 7.91. That's the good news, the bad news is I threw 18 extra horn numbers. The ten extra yos were nice, but they don't pay as well as box numbers.

Predictably, the hedge got crushed, losing $862, yet the EO part only won $788 (total br of $23,499). I had 4 hands of 20 or longer and a lot of 12 - 20 roll hands too. I also had a lot of hands ranging from 4-10 tosses, and those can either be slightly profitable or very costly. We know EO isn't about srr, but I figured with 7.91, I would have made a little more. In retrospect, I would have done very well had I bet the field.

I'm sticking with my perm of 22 on top 14 facing, but I'm keeping an eye on the 33 on top 26 facing 3v. That one had the same srr but produced 22 more box numbers. My right die was off 23 more times than the left, and the right die has the 1/6 axle, hence all the horn numbers. The dice aren't quite hitting the BW squarely. This is a wrist issue that should be easily fixable. More work to be done, but the results are encouraging.

[realtime]

What's that humming noise coming from the Amerikitchen?

Oh I see. It's just Mrs. Americraps warming up the frying pans at 2000 rpm's.

[Americraps]

She can throw them like a boomerang

[Americraps]

Hello Sportsfans,

​Its been a while since I posted regarding the Bootstrapper 2 project. It ended quite a while ago but I've been procrastinating posting the results- It was a wild ride, but I went bust in the 31st book of rolls.

To recap, I started with a BR of $10K, using a $10 flat and exponential (bootstrapper2) odds. The progression was not Rapping Captains, but my own variation that is outlined earlier on this thread.. On the 12th book, I had a monster hand that netted $13,275 profit on 51 rolls (with 13 nines and 9 tens), boosting the BR to over $22K. This enabled me to double my flat bet to $20 units. I then went on a long downhill streak, eventually crashing back down under the $10K mark.

Along the way, I decided to try adding a seperate darkside hedge bet to the simulation, but gave up on that after a few fruitless books. Those bets were not intermingled, so the results you see here are for the rightside betting only.

The big mistake was in not reducing my unit size as the BR went South. I kept the $20 level till going bust, thinking, "Just 1 more long hand will get me there." It never came. I was grossly over betting my BR. A better tactic would have been to reduce the unit size when BR hit $15K, then again at $10K, then again at $5K. I have no doubt that I would still be running it had I done that.

I'll post the SRRs for each of the 30 books, but they averaged 6.08. Thats 21,600 rolls.

6.61....5.85....6.55....5.67....5.72....5.29....
5.41....5.54....5.76....6.86....5.41....6.55....
7.91....5.41....6.55....6.26....5.50....6.21....
7.27....6.79....5.63....5.45....7.13....6.26....
6.10....5.41....5.58....6.21....5.41....6.21....

As I have mentioned before, SRR is not the main metric. With EO it's all about the long hands, as well as not too many short to medium hands. In most systems if you have a 10 roll hand, you are probably winning. Not neccessarily so for EO. The worst case scenario involves throwing every number once plus a couple of craps numbers, then 7 out. A 10 roll hand and could be very expensive. On the other hand a 5 roll hand could be very profitable if you have repeaters.
Here is the total of hands longer than 20 per book. All of the books with 6 hands over 20 rolls were profitable, most of the 4s and 5's were profitable too. None of the 3s or lower were profitable.

3........3.........4.........4.........5.........2........
2........2.........3.........6.........3.........4.......
4........2.........4.........4.........2.........2.......
5........5.........2.........4.........6.........2.......
6........5.........1.........5.........4.........3......

This is my second EO trial. The first was Rapping Captains Original Exponential Odds system. His original worked a lot better at a slightly lower srr ( I think it was 6.03) than my EO Bootstrapper2. A tip of the hat to RC. The only way to directly compare them is to use the same set of rolls, but I didn't do that.

My guess is that his "press from the get go" style wins a lot more on the monster hands and doesn't lose a whole lot more on the others than the more conservative "press from the second payer" approach of the bootstrapper 2.

Questions and comments are welcome...

[KrapsNovice]

Americraps,

I enjoyed reading this entire thread. The Captain's EO seems like a winner. Considering you are a DI, do you think it would work just on Randies?

EO is out of my range financialy none the less an excellent read.

Tc

[Americraps]

Hi KrapsNovice- Thats a good question- One that I have been pondering for some time. All the experts will tell you- "No. No system beats the house."

I'm not so convinced. RC's theory was that the HE was so thin, that long hands, if bet correctly would overcome the HE. His press schedule seems too slow for most people, but it works. Key is the BR. Ya gotta have lots of it -as well as the patience to slog through the losing.

Rapping Captain came up with this system and claimed to have used it on Randies. He said that he didn't bet on everyone, but he claimed to have used it with success at the tables on non DI's. He also frequently shot with other DI's.

I've been thinking about testing it on random rolls. Mine are pretty close to random, but they aren't exactly random. Sometimes they are worse, lol.

Right now I'm back with the stacker/frisbee shot and it's performing a lot better than the forward spin OH shot. I may come up with another variant to test.....

[KrapsNovice]

One thing for certain Americraps do not try this at Rivers. I drove by there this afternoon the table I played was extremely bouncy. The dice went off the table quite a few times. I was one of the few willing to pick them up and only one on my side of the table that would. The old timers would look the other way as if they never saw th em fly off the table. I had some time between appointments I played just 10.00 dp, made some gas money.

I commented to one of the dealers that these tables must favor the darkside he told me he dealt at Horseshoe a while back and the tables at Rivers had longer DP streaks.