Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I kind of agree with Irukanji on the PL odds betting, only if the point is a 4,5,9, or 10. I'll put odds on a 6 or 8 point.

Same goes for the DP bet. I'll put odds on anything except the 6 or 8.

.....but the house doesn't have an advantage over the odds bet. The payout on the odds is set to true value. Nobody has the edge. It is a zero sum game (assuming fair dice and no skill on the part of the shooter).

The edge the house gets comes from the pass line/DP at the start, and only that, so in short you are not better off placing a higher pass (or DP) bet to begin with.

I believe that you have to ask yourself a couple of questions..

First, do you have a demonstrated edge, and do you believe in it. (subject for different thread)
If so, do you think it will manifest itself over a defined period of time...A'la Wizard's belief that over fifty sessions your edge will kick in and provide a profit...
Or, are you in Irish's camp that says our edge comes and goes. Bet more when you are on and less when off. In essence be able to recognize the difference and bet accordingly.
Or, be like Heavy, and have the knowledge, wherewithal and table savey to adjust betting to what the table is giving you.

Now apply that to free odds.
If you have even a small edge, chances are that you can swing the number of pass line points made a little more in your favor.
Irish says a reasonable DI will have similar duration hands as a Randy, except they will tend to be 'deeper'. ie more clusters of repeating numbers, a little longer, and more pass line numbers. I am 100 percent in that camp.

That being said...I believe the free odds to be a powerful tool. Either side of the game.
If you are in Wizards camp, you tend to place high if not full odds consistently.
If in Irish's....more or less odds depending on how your edge is manifesting itself.
If in Heavy's camp...Heck, I do not know...He is my Hero. I have never been able to do what he does. When that time comes, I will tell you.

However you look at it when you combine favorable DI to free odds, I agree with MP in saying it is a force multiplier.

Memo

Time or perhaps better stated number of trials ( number of tosses )
could possibly factor into our consideration....

Perhaps someone could better state a factor often ignored.........
The perspective of opportunity lost
to capture a WIN or LOSS
could be considered
an erosion of opportunity with each toss of the dice......

Should a player have wagered the DO SIDE ( Bright Side ) on a Box Number,
the player is vested in observing
said number showing prior to the show of THE SEVEN ?

The converse may be applied to
the perspective
of the DO NOT ( Dark Side ) Wager Maker.

The observed dynamics in frequency of any number showing
( BOX #,FIELD #,HORN # , THE # 7 )
may seem fluid or mercurial in the short term..

Any value to factoring
TIME or the number of trials ( Tosses )
until a decision evidences ?

How much exposure to time
or
perhaps better said number of trials ( Tosses )
between placing the wager
and
the decision best fits your personal Comfort Zone ?

Bright Side and conversely Dark Side Wagers
may factor length of exposure in the equation

D I F E R E N T L Y .

just me contributing
w c

In answer to heavy's question re: odds on the don't. Yes. Always.

heavy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:05 pm Well, I did not limit the "best bet" question to Free Odds on the RIGHT side of the game. What if you're playing the Don'ts? Once your flat bet is established you have the advantage. Do you Lay odds?

Always. I go against the grain of conventional thinking and lay odds more aggressively on the 6/8 and less odds on the 4/10. Bankroll volatility is the reason. If you get knocked off a 4 or 10 twice it takes 4 wins to get back to even. If you get knocked off a six or eight twice, you're ahead after 3 wins. My max pain is 3 losses per shooter including naturals but I only have 1 bet up at a time. If I get knocked off I'll reload twice.