Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Same bet, same bet is a good conservative move with randies. Focus on getting bets paid for first. Then decide what to do from there.

Irish--re: your post above/partially reposted below. Good thoughts and one of your finer posts. A couple of nuggets in there.

Post
by irish » Wed May 22, 2019 11:42 am
"Memo.
No worries. Statistically, we know a couple of things. there's a 1/6 chance that the NEXT roll will be a seven. People misconstrue this to say a seven will come once out of every 6 rolls. While technically correct over a large sample size, it is rare that a roll occurs as:
not a seven, not a seven, not a seven, not a seven, not a seven, seven. THIS IS IMPORTANT: Statistics does not imply that this is the way it WILL or SHOULD occur.

Now back to break points. What is the most likely roll that a seven will occur? The third roll. Half the mean. Then we have the mean (6). Then, we start to get into standard deviations away from the mean. And that's where there is some possible correlation to break points...."

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My favorite money management move?

1. Quit when ahead >=2.0 base units. This sway in my direction will normally/naturally happen for low H.E wagers(i.e., Low Variance Wages), at least two times in any 100 consecutive decisions. If we make our wagers at approx. .02%-- .03 of our buyin we can endure any neg results/ will likely have plenty ammo remaining when the pos variance presents(AND it may present at the very beginning of our session). Im in favor of leaving a shoe(or session) the first time I'm ahead because we all know Variance also shows for the other side just as often.

2. Just "play the sway". The session results on low HE wagers like PL/DP,DC and B/P in Baccarat ...etc will seldom stray farther than 2SD from the expected Mean. I like to keep it close til the game sways in my direction and jump off. Just Play The Sway.




All the best,
Tgold

My favorite trick ever is the late regression to lock profits you made left on table.

When you see your numbers pressed up to a crazy level and realise a bet would pay you a lot less then what you have in the box numbers...regress to 25$ level play on all your bets and powerpress aggressively from there.

Locking 400-500$ and having 220 in play left is the best move you'll do overtime.

But NEVER REGRESS TWICE on the same shooter.

Any regression to lock up a profit is a great move, Dan. I've probably made more money having my bets "off" late in a hand than I have any other way. LOL. When every one of those "energy draining events" occur and I have more than $1K on the table I get gun shy.

heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:20 pm Any regression to lock up a profit is a great move, Dan. I've probably made more money having my bets "off" late in a hand than I have any other way. LOL. When every one of those "energy draining events" occur and I have more than $1K on the table I get gun shy.

I still remember the trip we were playing together and when the 4 hit at 1K you regressed yours and I pressed mine. It didn't hit again. That's a big swing moneywise.

If it's been a good day and I'm ahead I'm more likely to let it ride. If it's one of those days where I'm in the hole and the pressed up bets on the layout get me back even or slightly ahead, that money is going into the rack Jack.

heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:20 pm Any regression to lock up a profit is a great move, Dan. I've probably made more money having my bets "off" late in a hand than I have any other way. LOL. When every one of those "energy draining events" occur and I have more than $1K on the table I get gun shy.

I love to hear that ! You guys are a cool bunch. Hope I can free some time & cash to tag along one day.

My favorite money management move may surprise avid craps players, but here it is: once I realized that I was a Randy myself, I focused more and more on my shooting practice at home. Someday, I want to purchase a craps table for my basement and continue to get closer to the real world at practice. Those of you who recognize the array of table variability out there know that duplicating a casino experience at home is virtually impossible even with a loud sports game going on the tv and a room full of screaming teenagers yelling at the darn tv misses the casino experience.

The bottom line for me in money management is that I now only play craps occasionally, am timid to bet on Randies, and have only recently begun to show some promise as a DI using BoneTracker. The random nature of dice tosses was costing me too much money. I manage money by playing less.

Sad but true that too much knowledge about the random nature of my tosses and the tosses of others has cost me the "fun" times at the Craps table. But, I am better off financially especially because one of those crumby teenagers is my daughter who is a senior in high school and gets nearly straight A's and is planning to go to college and in intending (along with Mrs. Skasower's intentions) for me to pay for it.

Warmly,
Skasower who still loves Craps but treats it with the serious respect it deserves.

Greetings SKasower,

On the randies, play on the come out 5 dollars on the Don't pass line, then when

the come number is establish BET 5 dollars on the 6 and bet 5 dollars on the 8

till the shooter 7s out. Betting that way you are risking 5 dollars AND you might catch a hot roll, and make some money on that randie. Lots of luck at the casino.

jaime.

Thank you for the guidance Jaime1943. I am going to be back in Las Vegas in February on business and I am going to give your approach a shot. My biggest problem is that once in the game, I get invested in the excitement and before you know it I have lost my mind and my money. Self control in Craps is as hard as quitting smoking cigarettes. Anyone who has tried knows that will have to really do some heavy lifted self-control here!

Happy New Year Everyone!
skasower

Why would you not place the 6/8 for ^ instead of $5 so as to get the best odds available.''

Noah

And may 2020 be a good year for here both at the game as well as life.

The other thought is multiple come out naturals which destroy this system. But yes, six and eight for a minimum of $6.

heavy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:20 pm Let's help the new guys out by sharing some of our favorite money management moves. What do you do to guarantee a win or minimize a potential loss during a craps hand? I like a $24 six and eight,one hit and regress to $12 each, then press and take to the moon. Thoughts?

I play $66 inside. One hit I get $21. I throw down $1 and go to $88 inside and stay there. 3 hits and I'm down cya tomorrow !

I like a large inside bet ($44 is the minimum here), 1 hit and regress to an amount around what was won ($16 inside minus the point is the minimum on a $14 win) on that hit; then various ways (depending on bankroll and how well you're shooting) to press up to 10x initial bet in total winnings for the roll, then down to half what you regressed to on the table and the rest goes in your rack; then to the moon.

If doing well, I add 1/3 of session winnings to initial bet each time it's my turn with the dice before regression.

If I do poorly (first 2 times with dice are immediate losses): First, I leave to collect my thoughts. Then, I use comp points if I have them to play Double Double Bonus video poker for 1 25c unit a hand and collect all wins, try to get $40+ out of it if they only let you pull $50 out a day in vp play. Next, I take a $25 match play coupon (if I have it and use it on either craps, blackjack or baccarat; depends on what I'm feeling it on.) If craps, I put any other winnings from VP as odds on a pass line bet. Once the coupon is gone, if I am shooting well; I might use one of the following:

• $6 hard 6 or 8, pressed to $10 on a win
  • $39 buy the 10 and $10 hard 10
  If I don't feel like playing craps, I might just play baccarat; only playing hand where I feel one side is a certain winner. If I lose 2 of these bets in a row, I'm done for the day with everything. I once won 56 baccarat bets out of 60, but I was down before I started playing baccarat and 2/3 of the big bets I made were losers (I left when I won a big bet, winning a few hundred; up $100 for the day.)
  
  My last year of serious play I won about $100 most sessions with only 2 losing sessions of about $300, but it's a drain waiting for my turn to shoot without other bets and the smoke was getting to me. Right now, the casino near me is non-smoking but requires masks (I can't wear them for more than a few minutes and I don't agree with the practice among healthy people.) I worry they'll bring smoking back when masks are not mandatory, but I expect it. Big casinos aren't a problem, but cramped cruise casinos seem smokier sometimes. I can see myself playing 4 nights a week once I find at least 3 other players with dice control skills (even if I have to train them to form a team.
  
  The reason I mention teams, is it's one more idea on money management. I originally didn't want a bankroll sharing team, but if you have a designated bettor and the rest of the team only bets when mandated; you can go down when needed and go up more accurately. A team of 6 could do $330 inside and go down to $88 inside (lock in a $17 profit) or $110 inside (only $5 at risk.) The other benefit is for players who are distracted by complex bets when they should focus on shooting, this solves that.