Kentucky Derby 2019

[Raider]

Goodmorning Raider,

Good INFO thank you. are you going to show us your play before the race /// WIN EX TRIPLE AND ALL THE other bets you are going to make.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

still working out the costs to do what I want. Every one seems to think that the Fav will not win. I am going to bet on both sides of the line, I under bet that tri last year and picked the wrong longshots in the super, lost 70%, not counting the free bets. With the scratches, its lookin like 5 <10 5 between 10 and 20, and 9 >20. I will be putting country house under all of the <20 on a 1 dollar exatca, 10 to win, 20 to show, but those will not be the only bets I will be making. I always chase the super, and have decided to do five 10 straight supers with the 5 on top and the 20 in 3 and fourth, that will take sometime to work out, like i said, if its 22 and 46, its one race, if its 23 and 47 its another. I will be betting on both races, so of course race c will show

[Raider]

get the live odds here

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/ken ... -live-odds

[Raider]

for those of us who like to track


PP ML 7.P.M. 10.A.M Horse
1 15 18 17 War Of Will
2 20 38 34 Tax
3 15 14 14 By My Standards
4 50 29 28 Gray Magician
5 5 5 5 Improbable
6 15 22 21 Vekoma
7 8 4.5 5 Maximum Security
8 8 5 5 Tacitus
9 30 50 49 PQP
10 30 22 22 Cutting Humor
13 12 13 13 Code Of Honor
14 12 14 15 Win Win Win
15 50 50 49 Master Fencer
16 4.5 6 6 Game Winner
17 5 9 9 Roadster
18 30 44 45 Long Range Toddy
19 30 54 48 Spinoff
20 30 72 67 Country House
21 30 115 98 Bodexpress

[Tgold]

Thx Raider/jaime1943 --Ive enjoyed your discussions the past week.
Jaime I took your advise and put winwinwin on my super 3rd/4th leg .
Good luck to all.

I had to drive an hour this morning to place my wagers so hopefully the line doesn't move too much. I wanted to put all three of Bafferts horses at the top of my super, however, as Raiders' motto states:" Physics trumps probability" --Im not sure Game winner/Roadster can offset their start from the 16th/17th posts. I don't think Improbable is Bafferts best horse today but I do like the start from the 5th.

Churchill:10.0 Units allotted:
Race #
1. 1.0 U to W on 3

2. $1super: 1,4/1,4,6/1,2,3,4,5,6/ " "

3. 1.0 U to W on 4

6. $1super: 2,5/2,5,7/2,3,4,5,6,7/ " "

7. 1.0U to W on 6

8. 1.0U to W on 8

12. 2.0 U to W on 5, $1super: 5,17/5,7,17/5,7,8,10,14,16,17/ " "


All the best,
Tgold

[Raider]

glad you liked it, but tgold, use the comuter, only bets that get w2g are the supers and the pick 6 and what not, just like cashing in your chips, you have to get more than 10K before the IRS knows

[Raider]

In 2014 I started working the derby, doing things that I have had in mind for a few years. I down loaded at ton of data. It was while I was working on it that it dawned on that every angle that everyone had developed over the years based past derby's was no longer valid.

My assumptions was that the points system had changed the way the derby would be run and won. In the past six years, the post time favorite has won the race every year, we have had two triple crown winners, Apollo curse has been broken and Justify is the only not raced as a 2yo to win the triple crown. I think my assumption has been proven.

This year is all about “Due theory”. Its time for a longshot to win, we are due. That is Bullshit an we all know it. ( I hope) No gray was won the derby, so its due this year. More bullshit.

Because my state and city taxed my winnings while I was in Iraq 2011(form C), but would not allow me to deduct my $32 winning(W2Gs) from my $720 losses in the following years.

I have found that working the derby trail has help me with my discipline problem. I go tilt from time to time in the casino. I considered it victory last year betting over 20 races no more than 3 dollars a race.

I tip my hat to those of you that have the conviction of betting the derby with only one horse in the winners circle. Tha'ts not me.

I break down the horses in to odds Category. <10:1, between 10 and 20:1, and >20:1


My bets this year are going to be all of the(no more than 9) <20:1 over my three > 20 longshots, War of will, Country House, and Long Range Toddy in the Exacta and trifecta,

The Exacta will cost $27 with war of will also in the top (along with win win win)

I will do the same with the trifecta, cost (.50) $108, total cost 135. I call these shotgun bets.

My bankroll for the TC races is 150 for each leg. This year I have deiced to reduce the Belmont and Preakness to $100, and move it to the derby. After all it is the biggest of the three. Last year I took advantage of one free bet of 200, and one 5:1 odds bet on Justify. I lost my free bet, but used the 200 bonus on both the Preakness. The $155 I won on Justify, I played a little. The balance of both accounts is was around $150, so I have $265 to go to my sniper bets, the trifecta, and Superfecta. Those are no more than 3-8 horses. Some will not include my longshots, and 7 horses I have no money on


For a $50 ticket

7,5.with 16,8,2 with 16,8,2,13,14 cost 12/24

16,8,2,13,14 with 7,5 cost 10/20


that leaves 28/6 to do with what you want, Oh, 1 or 2 dollar exatca, .5 or 1 buck tri I just look at my odds post, tried to get it to look nice, but it didn't post at all, sorry about the way it looks.

[Raider]

DAMN,did I win 50 bucks or 500

[Raider]

freaking cool

I picked the 65 :1 longshot, wish I had playes the super with them in the top, but I didn't, I didn't think he would win it, oh well, thats horse racing

[Raider]

hmm should I go to the casino tonight?

[Raider]

Now its on to the Preakness, time for a new thread

[Knick111]

Greetings Raider,

Sir you are the BEST, you had $10 dollars to WIN and $20 to show on the winner [ number 20 ]

I take my hat off to you.

Pay out to win...$132.40

Pay out to show..$24.60

Raider collects ...alot of money.

jaime collects...00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

my 3 iregular horses on this race where ...WIN WIN WIN . came in 8th played him...i lost alot of money.
...SUENO--- did not race.
COUNTRY HOUSE... won the race

Decided to play win win win because he got EARLY MONEY here in pr.

Raider gave me the Winner, i got greedy and played WIN WIN WIN instead of playing BOTH, which i would have done if it WAS NOT THE DERBY.

Once again Raider is the best.

jaime fron puerto rico U.S.A
...

[Raider]

thats Not what I had man, I got lucky twice, I did the ex, and the tri, hell It would be easier to post what i bets i made than list them, but I had 17 to win on country house, did that just to clean out the account., its hard not to do that could have would have thing. If I had bet your way, in your amounts, it would have been much nice as it was, I had 400 bet, I would have won 50 bucks, but 7 DQed, I had an $10 ex on 5 and CH, not the 7, if that would have hit, would have been 4500, a ten buck tri with both the18 and 20 and a slew of supers, none which would have won. Your way, 6500, but man, I have a long way to go before I will be able to put down 1k on a race. beting the super the same way would have cost 4K, an netted 51k, but damn dude, the hi five paid 500K, for five grand, oh hell ya.

this year was a test, how I picked those three horse has now worked 5 out of seven times in the points races for finding longshots, I got some work to do but I do know that it has worked twice in the preakness. I will need to break it own, so cool thing number one, IT WORKED.

Cool thing number two I am not as crazy as the few people who read this thread tought, that my gamblers high ranting was dead on> Most of the people here won't unerstand what you do, that picking the LSin the KYD is like have a 200 roll hand, and hitting the fire bet six times. Five out of seven is not luck question is, will it work again?

thanks man. oh this is cool, I was tossing dice when the race dice, first roll, a 7

[heavy]

All I can say is "what a cluster . . . "

[Raider]

The DQ? It does open a can of worms that will be talked about for years. I don't have a dog in that fight, I was on the 5 to win.
The tapes show truth. MS still won the race, he just didn't get paid.

[SHOOTITALL]

According to a report, bettors would have won over $42 million on 9-2 favorite Maximum Security, which helps explain why the eventual winner, Country House, was so heavily booed after it was announced he won.
hahaha. That's pretty funny. I gave up the ponies many years ago when I could see several races at LA downs seemed to be fixed.

[Raider]

Good thing race tracks take their money off the top then. CH ran a good race. Thats America, blame the horse, not the jockey who filed the objection, not the stweards that made the call, boo the horse. I have had DQs that have worked for and against me.thats horseracing. MS's Jockey said that he shyed away from the crowd Noise, some one else said it was a photograher who was using a flash, and yet others are saying that WOW fouled him, causing all of it. 26% of the horses in the derby this year had four or fewer races, thats the most since 97 and that is as far as I can go back.Lets put a high school football player in the NFL, see how that works out. The points system have made it a "win and your in", the trainers and owners want to win the roses. Question is will he run in the preakness and belmount?
This is going to change things, that and the KIAs at SA, 24 and rising. Next will be a class action lawsuit agaisnt CD by those who lost money, 42 mil in the win pool, 25 mil in the ex pool, 1 mill in the super hi five, and $6,212,046.00 in wagers on MS, but don't know if that covers all of the bets
if he runs the rest of the TC, and wins ..... Oh well, we will get to see the tapes on thursday.

[SteveO]

I've been wanting to revisit this thread since it started but the job and of course, real life, has imposed it's will many, many times but NOW....As of June 21, 2019, I Am Retired and find I have some free time on my hands. (I may even start practicing dice influencing again). But anyway, I had to "dust off" my database program. It's one I wrote myself so I can make it do just about anything I want, it's just that it requires some programming to get from here to there.

I will zip up the text file and attach it to this message and I will paste the same report below. This report looks at races from Churchill Downs, Ellis Park, Aquaduct, Belmont, Tampa Bay and Gulfstream Park, from April 1, 2018 through November 30, 2018, 3,235 races, 25,417 entries (average 7.86 horses per race) with a "Z" pattern where the horse:

1. Was first, second or third at the 1st call
2. Falls back to fourth, fifth or sixth at the 2nd or 3rd call
3. Finishes the race second, third of fourth
4. All distances, all surfaces, all conditions (but the report looked at ALL races, ALL DIRT races, ALL TURF races, ALL SPRINT races, ALL ROUTE races, ALL DIRT SPRINT races, ALL DIRT ROUTE races, ALL TURF SPRINT races, ALL TURF ROUTE races and as a control, it also looks at the best BRIS PRIME POWER rating in each race)

Formatting is not exactly perfect but open the text file and it will be a little more clear. More info at the end of the report.

DATABASE = MULTI18.CSV
TEXT FILE = MULTI18_DTSR_Z.TXT
TEMPLATE = DTSR_Z.CSV
ENTRIES IN DATABASE = 25417
RACES IN DATABASE = 3235
****************************************************************************************************************
ALL RACES (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS THE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH NO FILTER)
WIN 3,218 13% $ 38,822.6 -24%
PLC 6,432 25% $ 38,028.3 -25%
SHW 9,587 38% $ 38,386.9 -24%
BETS 25,417
1ST BIG WIN $ 163.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 75.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 52.2
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -24%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -25%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 153.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 72.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 44.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -24%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 151.4
3RD BIG PLC $ 72.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 37.6
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -25%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -26%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
ALL RACES WITH Z
WIN 548 16% $ 4,801.1 -28%
PLC 1,049 31% $ 5,079.4 -24%
SHW 1,503 45% $ 5,083.9 -24%
BETS 3,334 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS THE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH HORSES THAT SHOW THE Z)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -29%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -24%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 68.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -30%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 53.5
3RD BIG PLC $ 23.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -31%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -25%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -24%
****************************************************************************************************************
SPRINT Z
WIN 325 17% $ 2,658.4 -31%
PLC 610 31% $ 2,855.2 -26%
SHW 891 46% $ 2,946.4 -24%
BETS 1,940 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -33%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 42.8
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -34%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -35%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
ROUTE Z
WIN 220 16% $ 2,104.0 -23%
PLC 433 32% $ 2,176.2 -20%
SHW 604 44% $ 2,102.1 -23%
BETS 1,368 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS ROUTERACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 68.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -26%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -22%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 53.5
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -27%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -22%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.0
3RD BIG PLC $ 18.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -29%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT Z
WIN 332 18% $ 2,637.4 -30%
PLC 607 32% $ 2,803.6 -26%
SHW 880 46% $ 2,866.2 -24%
BETS 1,893 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 42.8
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -31%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 30.0
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -32%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -27%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 30.0
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -28%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF Z
WIN 180 15% $ 1,793.6 -26%
PLC 370 30% $ 1,932.4 -20%
SHW 522 43% $ 1,882.4 -22%
BETS 1,214 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -29%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -22%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -23%
2ND BIG WIN $ 68.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -32%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 38.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 19.8
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -23%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -24%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT SPRINT Z
WIN 233 18% $ 1,789.1 -30%
PLC 411 32% $ 1,867.5 -27%
SHW 601 47% $ 1,920.9 -25%
BETS 1,277 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 42.8
1ST BIG PLC $ 23.0
1ST BIG SHW $ 15.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -32%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -28%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -25%
2ND BIG WIN $ 30.0
2ND BIG PLC $ 22.6
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -33%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -26%
3RD BIG WIN $ 26.8
3RD BIG PLC $ 21.4
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -34%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
DIRT ROUTE Z
WIN 99 16% $ 848.3 -31%
PLC 196 32% $ 936.1 -23%
SHW 279 46% $ 945.3 -23%
BETS 611 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS DIRT ROUTE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 30.0
1ST BIG PLC $ 16.6
1ST BIG SHW $ 11.8
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -33%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -25%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -23%
2ND BIG WIN $ 28.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 14.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 11.0
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -35%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -26%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -24%
3RD BIG WIN $ 26.8
3RD BIG PLC $ 13.6
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -37%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -27%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -25%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF SPRINT Z
WIN 75 14% $ 724.2 -35%
PLC 162 29% $ 820.4 -26%
SHW 236 43% $ 850.1 -23%
BETS 553 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF SPRINT RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 74.5
1ST BIG PLC $ 19.8
1ST BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -41%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -27%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 38.6
2ND BIG PLC $ 18.2
2ND BIG SHW $ 10.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -45%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -29%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 34.4
3RD BIG PLC $ 17.0
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.4
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -48%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -30%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
TURF ROUTE Z
WIN 104 16% $ 1,057.4 -19%
PLC 204 31% $ 1,079.8 -17%
SHW 281 43% $ 1,008.3 -23%
BETS 651 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS TURF ROUTE RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH Z HORSES)
1ST BIG WIN $ 68.6
1ST BIG PLC $ 34.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 21.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -24%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -20%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -24%
2ND BIG WIN $ 34.2
2ND BIG PLC $ 24.0
2ND BIG SHW $ 14.4
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -26%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -21%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -25%
3RD BIG WIN $ 32.2
3RD BIG PLC $ 15.8
3RD BIG SHW $ 10.0
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -29%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -22%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -26%
****************************************************************************************************************
BRIS PRIME POWER
WIN 890 29% $ 5,161.4 -15%
PLC 1,518 50% $ 5,247.2 -14%
SHW 1,956 64% $ 5,248.4 -14%
BETS 3,048 (NOTES ADDED TO MESSAGE > THIS SHOWS ALL RACES IN THE DATABASE WITH #1 PRIME POWER RANK)
1ST BIG WIN $ 30.0
1ST BIG PLC $ 15.4
1ST BIG SHW $ 10.0
WIN ROI LESS 1ST BIG WIN -16%
PLC ROI LESS 1ST PLC WIN -14%
SHW ROI LESS 1ST SHW WIN -14%
2ND BIG WIN $ 24.8
2ND BIG PLC $ 15.4
2ND BIG SHW $ 9.6
WIN ROI LESS TWO BIG WINS -16%
PLC ROI LESS TWO PLC WINS -14%
SHW ROI LESS TWO SHW WINS -14%
3RD BIG WIN $ 24.6
3RD BIG PLC $ 15.2
3RD BIG SHW $ 8.8
WIN ROI LESS THREE BIG WINS -17%
PLC ROI LESS THREE PLC WINS -15%
SHW ROI LESS THREE SHW WINS -14%
****************************************************************************************************************

So just generally looking, this angle is a loser. You lose between 19% (TURF ROUTES) to 35% (TURF SPRINTS) of every dollar bet. You would be much better off (or would lose less, only 15%) just betting the highest BRIS PRIME POWER in each race.

The report shows the best return based on all payouts, then it shows what happens if you remove the highest payouts, then it shows what happens if you remove the second best payouts and then if you remove the third best payouts. Sometimes a positive ROI can be attributed to just one or two big win payouts.

The attached ZIP file is a text file of the above report with more info. The above was modified for formatting on this message board.

If you have questions or need any additional information, please let me know.

MULTI18_DTSR_Z_FULL.zip

(1.74 KiB) Downloaded 413 times

[Raider]

wow. now thats timing man, I have thought of building a database. yours did good on the show, if it screens horses for you, pick the long shot and only the long shot to show. Might get a postive ROI

[Knick111]

Greetings steve and raider,

this system sounds like my Iregular system, that i invented in 1980.

but do not forget the betting system i gave you to make this system work.

comments please.......jaime.

[SteveO]

Jamie, if it does not show a positive ROI with a flat bet, no money management system will make it a winner.