Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hi DarthNater . Hopefully all are cashing tickets today.

DN--I like your parlay above and the way you design advantaged-bets (with a small fee) into a compounding scheme that projects a much higher payout.
Thx as always for posting your thoughts ( as well as putting your picks out there for all to see). As Bankerdude80 et al mention above I am also trying to learn more about parlays by watching your plays/ Ive spent alot of time the past few months in self study.
I will sometimes do a double-prop bet but for most part just do a single moneyline or ATS wager. I will often try to compound three OR four of these individual consecutive winners. Then go from there based on where that win puts my net in ratio to the buyin allotted for that particular endeavor. However, for the most part I keep it simple and do a single wager as I consider myself a novice at sports betting.


DN: "..Darksiding JF cashes again!! Well done! Betcha can't wait till next week. Don't forget the Nagy hot seat watch......,...."

Thx. Yes indeed on JF. I would like to take credit, however, my recent winning streak on JF(beginning with JFs second start), is due to a friend sending me intel/his logic, on his personal top picks(he started wagering against jf on JFs' first start).

My win yesterday on Jf(0.5 INT--over), with the analytics projecting (0.91 int), JF tossed 1.0 int.
My aforementioned handicapper friend also instructed me to take the (JF 184 tot yd passing--Under), JF finished with a total of 175. I entered my personal logic/chose not to wager that one as my thinking was "there is no way the sportsbooks can keep lowering his total passing yards and JF keep underperforming". So I didnt get that winner. My personal best choice in the SF-Chi game was J Garoppolo (207 tyds--Over), and he threw for 320+ .
Im hoping JF will have a breakout game in the near future so the sportsbooks will respond with raising the totals.

IMO he is going to have to show the capacity to read defenses AND-OR rush for 150 yds and 2-3 TDs so the Bears opponent will feel some consequences. JF has Detroit (0-8) in three weeks/ the Bears last four games are against teams with currently losing records(plus by week 12 many teams with be mathematically eliminated from playoffs/ little for motivation). Opportunities for punters????

My current winning streak pos progression wagering against JF is similar to standing at the craps table and the shooter is into the low-20s/hit 7-8 PL winners including six points brought back, and we are thinking "there is no way he keeps going". 15 tosses and 4 more PL winners later the shooter finally 7s out. Afterward we look back and realize had we continued our pospro the 12 IAR winners streak would have paid out 8-10x our buyin vs the only 300% of buyin we won by regressing when the roll was in the early 20s and at 7-8 IAR wins.

Im in favor of (getting on streaks early/compounding early/and a higher % early ) in most things gambling. Then I do not have to be so overly concerned with how long the streak will last.

"Good teams win, Great teams cover"

TGold,
Thanks for your note above, glad its helping you exploring sports betting & keep pushing on JF, though agree, he'll have a breakout eventually, as its sports after all and every NFL sunday seems to have a secondary theme, like yesterday was the Day of the Back-ups.

I think Nagy is way out of his depth, hence it's the imperfect storm for JF.

My tickets cashed on the App about an hour after the games. I may do in-game tonight or start looking at the early lines for next week as I like LAR teased down again TEN with Henry likely out. And your boy, JF, is on MNF next week - that might juice him up; or PIT crushes him, DN8R

Hi DarthN and everyone.
DN above: "...My tickets cashed on the App about an hour after the games. I may do in-game tonight or start looking at the early lines for next week as I like LAR teased down again TEN with Henry likely out. And your boy, JF, is on MNF next week - that might juice him up; or PIT crushes him..."

My tickets cashed on the App about an hour after the games

Do you prefer /mostly use the two main books in vegas or do you equally use online SBooks such as Bov or similar? Any specific reasons for using one over the other(Perks, freeplay, better spreads,lines, other, none of the above,...etc)??

I like LAR teased down again TEN with Henry likely out

I am also monitoring to see when Henry will return/see if maybe some opportunities this first week.

JF, is on MNF next week - that might juice him up; or PIT crushes him...

Im anxiously awaiting to see the props for this game and specifically for JF. The numbers are getting pushed so low on him that a bias the other way seems to be forming. I may set my pressed-up JF wager aside until some of this skew changes. Though Im hesitant to leave a winning streak so even if I set it(currently pressed-up wager) aside I will still wager at least a 1.0 base unit.
I always remind myself on this sports betting and especially for prop bets, that regardless of how much data I crunch, news stories, hunches, decision/logic one utilizes. The sportsbook analytics team will always have access to more intel/ plus they get inside tips, as well as have friends on the inside of teams,...etc.

Best of luck to all,

"Good teams win, Great teams cover"

Tgold wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:21 pm
Do you prefer /mostly use the two main books in vegas or do you equally use online SBooks such as Bov or similar? Any specific reasons for using one over the other(Perks, freeplay, better spreads,lines, other, none of the above,...etc)??

Last year, I started with the William Hill app - before Caesars bought them. Now Caesars has their own highly marketed app, but I haven't tried it yet as I don't care about earning Total Rewards points. WH gave me the Bet $50, get $50 deal and the local agent tossed in their local $20 offer as well, so I got $70 for "nothing". This year, as I mentioned above, I grabbed the deal that Stations was offering.....basically a 10% credit on your initial deposit bet up to $500. Last year I looked at the BetMGM app, but they have HORRIBLE teaser payouts so I passed for the moment. No Fanduel or Draft Kings in Nevada yet.... they are advertising some good offers elsewhere. I like the tight lines at Circa, but they have not offered me anything to sign up or to try their app. Most of the reviews on the App Store are bad as 3-4 ago when the apps started they were evidently all weakly coded. Like all apps, they "improve" with time; so I'll wait out offers for getting them. If I was high volume bettor, I'd consider the MGM app for the Mlife points, but not when you're betting stacks of pizzas.

Tgold wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:21 pm

JF, is on MNF next week - that might juice him up; or PIT crushes him...

I'm anxiously awaiting to see the props for this game and specifically for JF. The numbers are getting pushed so low on him that a bias the other way seems to be forming. I may set my pressed-up JF wager aside until some of this skew changes. Though Im hesitant to leave a winning streak so even if I set it(currently pressed-up wager) aside I will still wager at least a 1.0 base unit.
I always remind myself on this sports betting and especially for prop bets, that regardless of how much data I crunch, news stories, hunches, decision/logic one utilizes. The sportsbook analytics team will always have access to more intel/ plus they get inside tips, as well as have friends on the inside of teams,...etc.

Best of luck to all,

"Good teams win, Great teams cover"

The Sports Books' analytics people have FAR more access to information and data analysis than us; that's why I tease. As I figure their numbers are always strong and I factor in that early in the week they are testing for the Sharps, and waiting for the public demand signal on the weekend. Plus I try never to consider the line as a prediction of the outcome - that's not what it is.

As for JF - keep tossing and collecting until you seven out - hopefully after a regression.

DN8R

DarthN above: "...The Sports Books' analytics people have FAR more access to information and data analysis than us; that's why I tease. .."

Good thoughts/ideas. Do u have a specific increment or ratio that you screen/search for to "tease" toward only if the Tease amount is a certain % of Spread??.
In most things gambling Im certainly in favor of wagering the Advantaged Bet(with a small fee--vig) --"of course one needs to define small and fee", vs the opposite (Getting paid more for a disadvantaged wager).
One of my favorite Craps wagers is just a simple Lay on the 6-OR-8 (whichever is the laggard).

*re:NFL props--My top pick for thurs nights games is C Wentz (9.5yds rushing--OVER) as my analytics team projects a total at 16.5. If nothing changes between now /kickoff I shall place this wager.

As always thanks for your thoughts,tg

Tgold wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:53 am
Good thoughts/ideas. Do u have a specific increment or ratio that you screen/search for to "tease" toward only if the Tease amount is a certain % of Spread??.


*re:NFL props--My top pick for thurs nights games is C Wentz (9.5yds rushing--OVER) as my analytics team projects a total at 16.5. If nothing changes between now /kickoff I shall place this wager.

As always thanks for your thoughts,tg

Tgold,
Most teasing is thru the key differential points of 3,6, and or 7. Stanford Wong in his Sharp Sports Betting book would tease three games thru these numbers and actually showed a mathematical advantage so now the books know this and defend their lines. I play in a big survivor pool so I’m looking for outright winners, so teasers fits in well there as I’m already doing the same work. I also look for the Trap of the Week. Some time there isn’t one; last week I saw it as GB as everyone was on ARZ; yeah Wall Street calls that contrarian; I call it my Admiral Acqbar play. Cincy would have been the same but few saw it.

I read a stat somewhere that something like 80% of nfl games are decided by 6 points or less; so get the right side and get that 80%. The other thing is the number of legs as the more legs the more risk. I had too many legs with my Acqbar Green Bay teaser as I hit 3.5 out of 5. KC pushed, as I had them -3 net before the Sunday line move to 10.5. Those half points really matter and it’s always a case study. I suspect I’ll keep my legs at four or less the rest of the season.

That sounds like a good prop, always have a reason for your props; wish I had enough time to find those gems, DN8R

Hi DarthN
"Those half points really matter and it’s always a case study. I suspect I’ll keep my legs at four or less the rest of the season..."
I agree/ its annoying to be on wrong side of that(0.5), for example: 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2,....etc.

"I read a stat somewhere that something like 80% of nfl games are decided by 6 points or less; so get the right side and get that 80%. .."

Thats an interesting stat. Though at first glance I would have likely guessed closer to just over 7.0 . Im guessing the difference of (-3) absorbs alot of the differences of (1,2,3,4,5,6). So if we filter out all games decided by 1.0 , then all games decided by 2.0,...6.0 , then by the time we get to the games decided by >=7.0 the majority of games have already been filtered out. Just a quick random guess as really havnt thought much about it. Something we should certainly consider when wagering.

All the best,

This week we have the back to basics prime time teaser at -7: so Indy -3, Dal -3, Pit + 1/2, and LAR -1/2.

For a couple of pizzas, DN8R

Good job DarthN as I see you picked up the first leg before halftime on Indy. I like the other legs too.
I also won my prop Ind qb Car Wentz (9.5yds rush "Over").

My top prop pick for this upcoming weekend : Eagles Jalen Hurts Under -249.5 yds passing

My 2nd best pick( i havnt booked this yet): Kirk Cousin Over +267yds passing.

Another one Im looking at is Justin Fields "OVER" 185 pass yds.
(As noted above I have multi-week consec win streak going thus far by doing the Underperformance for JF on every one of his games. Mostly wagering (one or both) the Over on INT, and Under for Pass yds.

However the prop lines have been continuously lowered so much each week that now my analytics are showing so much skewness that I am considering the other direction this week vs Pitt. Another factor is that last week he performed his best and although only 175 yards passing. It does seem the coaches are keeping things as simple as possible and helping him get rid of the ball quicker or run(He led the team in rush yds last week over 100 yds.)


All the best,

Good plan TGold; plus there’s the Monday Night factor which can turn any game sideways.

Happy for that first leg as Indy -3 got interesting in Q4. What was funny was Troy doing the Scott Van Pelt “Bad Beats” line... “this series of downs may be significant to some” when NYJ threatened to score and cut the lead to seven which would have been the back door cover against the +10.5 line. That’s when teasing is relaxing, DN8R

darthN:
"..What was funny was Troy doing the Scott Van Pelt “Bad Beats” line... “this series of downs may be significant to some” when NYJ threatened to score and cut the lead to seven which would have been the back door cover against the +10.5 line. That’s when teasing is relaxing, ..."

I didnt see that. Very funny. I would have guessed a majority of fans tuned in to watch a jets-colts duel were likely punters/fantasy type fans. I would fit into that group as I only went to yahoo sports to view the halftime stats/ only to check if Prop wager @ Cwentz had rushed for > +9.5 yds.

"... plus there’s the Monday Night factor which can turn any game sideways..."

Yes/ and plus imo the situation is ripe for JFields to have one of his better game (Prop JF OVER 185yds passing --if no major injuries or unlikely events prior to kickoff).
My only concern is that hopefully he doesnt get injured or sidelined for a few plays as he will need every possession to count. Should be a good/close game and likely low scoring with Pitt winning a close one: 21-20, 21-16,24-20,...etc. Just my personal opinions /I am certainly not an expert handicapper.


All the best to everyone,


"Good teams win, great teams cover"

Best of luck to all the handicappers today.

My previously mentioned top-three nfl prop bets for today.

My top prop pick for this upcoming weekend : Eagles Jalen Hurts Under -249.5 yds passing
(This is my only wager of the three. Similar to craps sessions that are good, better, or best. Sometimes its optimal for us to weed out the not-best sessions. I like the two wagers below, however, I view the one above as best of the three---We shall see.)

My 2nd best pick( i havnt booked this yet): Kirk Cousin Over +267yds passing.

Justin Fields "OVER" 180.5 pass yds. This one has actually dropped a little from earlier in the week.


All the best,

Is this considered a smart hedge?

My total cost was $70. These were all moneyline bets.

One of the following will happen:

If Titans win Sunday night I'll net $5 profit.
If Steelers win Monday night, I'll net $74.20 profit
If Bears win Monday night I'll net $273.69 profit

The hedge was on the Titans. I want to make it to Monday night.

BetMGM also has a cashout offer that fluctuates as games are played. At the time of screenshot, I could have walked with the Cashout amount of $60.40 + $70.60 for a total of $131.00 less my stake of $50 for a guaranteed profit of $81. I would not have had to hedge.

Would you have structured this differently? If so, how and why?

This was the Sunday of the Barking Dogs, DAL -dead, Buf - dead, and as you hedged LAR - dead. So yeah a net positive, especially this week, is good hedge. And you still can bet the Monday game.....

DN8R

Ps I like the BetMGM option where they offer to buy back the ticket. I don’t have that app so don’t know the small print, but there’s a lot to like especially if you had that parlay using both sides on Monday night; or have the second parlay with the Titans which would have a bigger payout.

DarthN:
"...This was the Sunday of the Barking Dogs, DAL -dead, Buf - dead, and as you hedged LAR - dead. So yeah a net positive, especially this week, is good hedge..."
I agree. Many erratic outcomes this weekend or so it seemed. The Dallas noshow was a little surprising as they had been 7-0 ATS thus far.

My only wager won: As previously stated "My top prop pick /only pick for this upcoming weekend : Eagles Jalen Hurts Under -249.5 yds passing" (He finished w 162).This prop moved all the way down into the 230s on some books).

re:MNF --As noted earlier in the week I considered the JFields Over 180.5, and it would be my best wager tonight IF i was forced to wager tonight. However, Im passing on this wager (or any bet tonight) as Im optimistic my current pospro pressed-up wager will see a better spot next week. Just like at the craps table--the longer the streak the more difficult the decision for when to set the pressed-up wager aside for perceived better opportunities, regress,...etc.

Im anxiously awaiting the prop on GB qb J Love total passing yards Prop next week/ will potentially place that bet the second it comes out. Also keeping an eye on the props next week for Jhurts and JFields total pass yards.


All the best,

Tgold wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:53 am
Im anxiously awaiting the prop on GB qb J Love total passing yards Prop next week/ will potentially place that bet the second it comes out. Also keeping an eye on the props next week for Jhurts and JFields total pass yards.

All the best,

If Rodgers clears protocols Saturday, he will play Sunday, Love will get one play on a "special package" - so grab any unders now that don't have strings, N8

JF over 180 yards woulda cashed, same as CHI +7. As Belichek says "On to Cincinnati......"

DN8R

Bankerdude80;
So am i understanding correctly(The steelers win on mnf gave you this middle win? Congrats.

If Titans win Sunday night I'll net $5 profit.
If Steelers win Monday night, I'll net $74.20 profit
If Bears win Monday night I'll net $273.69 profit
---------------------------------------------------------------------
darthN:"....If Rodgers clears protocols Saturday, he will play Sunday, Love will get one play on a "special package" - so grab any unders now that don't have strings, N8."

Tgold: "Im anxiously awaiting the prop on GB qb J Love total passing yards Prop next week/ will potentially place that bet the second it comes out."
Yes indeed--you read my mind.

DathN: "JF over 180 yards woulda cashed, same as CHI +7. As Belichek says "On to Cincinnati......"
Woulda,coulda,shoulda--I really liked this but didnt place it since my wager is pressed-up Im becoming more selective and perceive I will see a better spot somewhere else, hopefully in the near future.
.
As previously noted I was needing JF to have a break out game so the Books' Prop bets would move upward potentially creating another opportunity to wager the under on JF passing yards(Bears are 32nd in nfl for passing yards-even after JF totals last night). Im expecting the media /most sports shows on Tues to help with my objectives of seeing the JF total pass yards now move upwards. Plus JF has a bye week, then Baltimore(*31st against the pass), then 0-8 Detroit (*Detroit). Apologies to any Lions fans out there. . Actually the Lions are better than average against the Pass so I may have to eat crow with my logic above.
Im hoping JF may have decent performances against the Ravens/Lions, and with the Prop totals being superficially elevated after these next two games, THEN its 8-1 Arizona cards(This is the spot Im eyeing as a potential under for JF passing yards.). Alot of IFS and all depends on where that prop starts. We shall see.

Until then Im waiting to see this weeks props on GB qb Jlove Under, and Jhurts Under. Like most props---we can concoct all kinds of schemes/themes --just depends on where the prop # starts.

All the best to all the punters,

Tgold wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:47 pm Bankerdude80;
So am i understanding correctly(The steelers win on mnf gave you this middle win? Congrats.

If Titans win Sunday night I'll net $5 profit.
If Steelers win Monday night, I'll net $74.20 profit
If Bears win Monday night I'll net $273.69 profit
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately, no. I netted the $5 profit because the Titans beat the LA Rams. The Bears / Steelers game was moot at that point. If LA Rams had won Sunday night, then yes I would have netted the $74.20 after the Steelers win.

onward to next Sunday!

Best,
BD

We have some interesting matchups this week and I’m sure a lots of folks are wondering if were going to have a third wacky week in a row or get back to chalk? I’m thinking chalk (like). After all are we really going to pump the brakes on Dal or Buf? Or just stick with basics and solid teams - ie never do Lions or Texans with the points.

I’m doing a 7 point teaser this week ( though William Hill has a couple a half point less - so perhaps a 6.5 teaser ).

Right now I have two legs: Bal and TB. Gonna watch them overnight for another number, then hit it with a third leg, DN8R