Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

irish wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:52 am

you can also see where you're at from bets as you can see...most hands don't pass 3-4 hits, so you should plan to collect third.

Ya think? What is the percentage of hands that get to three paying hits? 4? What is the percentage of hands that get to 0 paying hits? or 1?

An inside set of bets (whether you intend to regress or not) requires slightly MORE than three hits to pay for itself. So, if you're trying to get three hits before regressing, you will not profit until that regressed, 4th hit. Four inside hits. Think about that. Then, as I asked above, tell me the percentage of hands thrown that get to four hits. No one is talking about recovery. How many winning hands (ie: you got to 4 hits or more), will it take to overcome one, just one, fully losing hand where you got no hits? Which of these things is MOST likely to happen? A PSO or PPSO with no paying hits or a hand that gets to 4 hits? By the way, if you consider an earlier regression, you have to go through some of the same calculations. $110 inside, regressed after one hit sounds fantastic, right? How many two hit, or three hit hands would you need to pay for one full loss?

I know, I know. Irish is ^%#hole.

This is a question with infinite answers. If someone tells you they have the answer, their recommendation is likely to be total nonsense. The answer depends on bankroll, frequency of play, risk aversion, player utility etc. etc.

When I'm shooting, my preference, since I prefer to keep the HA within a reasonable range, but also like the flexibility of place bets, is to play a place to come to place to come (ad infinitum) mutant strategy. I usually only start with a place 6/8 and make a couple of come bets. If come bets return, I'll usually place that number back and come bet again. This will reduce the per roll HA a bit. Sometimes I'll just make come bets. Sometimes I'll place the 6/8 and neither progress or regress them. I'm not married to a specific strategy, but I try to abide by a general philosophy which is to not create a scenario where the combined HA on the wagers is not insurmountable, and that my total wagers I've made do not exceed the Kelly limits that I've set for myself.

If you'd like to discuss recovery rates of wagers or sets of wagers, that's also some interesting stuff.

heavy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:11 pm I almost posted that you needed a more significant monument - then I noticed that if you stared at that one long enough you could almost see the image of an Irishsetter staring at you through the stains in the concrete. Weird.

heavy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:47 pm Oh, I think I got the gist of Dan's post well enough.

It's funny. I saw a post by that idiot Garrison promoting his Platinum Craps book on Facebook this morning (PLEASE do not buy this huckster's book, folks. I cannot emphasize that enough). He was attempting to argue casino math versus gambling math and even stranger, was actually attempting to post mathematical calculations (and failing miserably at it) in his post. Worse than that, his calculations were incorrect. But I won't go into that. His point was to compare the odds of a Come Bet with Free Odds on a point of five or nine versus a Place bet on the Five or Nine - with the Pay Off on same bets. He was using the 3-4-5X odds game in his example. A $10 Come bet with $40 odds paid $70. A $50 Place bet paid $70. His argument was that although the "casino odds" were different, the "gambler" odds were the same. Both bets paid $70, so you were better off Placing the five or nine. He completely ignored the $10 Come Bet winners on the 7 or 11. Now, I'm not a huge fan of Come betting, but if you're going to make an explanation of the two bets to prove a point you simply cannot eliminate a major element of one of the bet simply because it serves to prove your point. Now, on the flip side, you have player control over the Place Bet and can take it down or turn it off. But you ALSO have player control over your Free Odds bet and can take it down or turn it off.

On another thread old Garrison talked about his version of the Five Count, where you play a Don't Pass bet and leave it up for the Five Count. If the player gets past the Five Count you TAKE THE DP BET DOWN and Place the numbers. WTF? I challenged him on this and explained the payoffs on Placing every point that the DP might be established on to guarantee a WIN. Crickets from Garrison. This guy needed to READ a book on craps before writing a book on craps. But the sad fact is he's decided to exploit his relationship with John Patrick to wrangle an endorsement out of him and is leveraging that to sell his bullshit. It's a complete disgrace.

And now I've once again hijacked 22inside's betting evolution thread.

Just know your ADVANTAGE and bet it, guys. Practice practice practice, be well bankrolled, size your bets right and play with discipline. Know when it's not working and walk away to play another day. That's all it takes.

Hmmmm....If I continue the hijack of a thread, am I really hijacking it if it's my thread to begin with?

Undoubtedly. But only a couple of people here know that from experience. I'm fun, funny, generous and loyal to a fault, and expect these things in return, which means I have a relatively small, hilarious and reliable group of friends.

irish wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:49 pm

Heavy wrote:Oh, I think I got the gist of Dan's post well enough.
(remainder snipped to save space)

If you got all of that out Dan's post, you should be a translator at SETI.

Translate this for us? (It's Klingon)

"vaj jIHvaD pegh vIghajbe', 'ej nge'wI' je jIHbe' je.?"

skasower wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:53 pm My Farengi associate speaks Klingon and tells me the exact translation is: "Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like bananas." Sorry 22Inside!