Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Every house seems to tinker with their teaser payouts. MGM is the worse. Ceasars was bad too but seem to now have adopted the William Hill payouts

6pt 2 legs: 20/23; 3 legs 8/5

Best to look them up to be sure

DN8R

Well its Super Bowl time

Yes went to the Westgate yesterday for the 40 pages of props, a free lunch and $30 of free slot play

Since I have a standing rule for not teasing Totals, this game is all about discerning the right side. In the Championship games, I used the in game wagering to correct for an initial GB lay and got TB-4.5; plus when BUF got ahead 9-0, the books set the in game line M/L at KC +120 - that was the fastest bet in my history.

In my ranking I have KC as -7 over TB on a neutral field; however since its at TB with 25,000 fans, I deducted 2 for home field giving KC -5. Five is a dead number even in this era of 2 point conversions, so I make it KC -3

I've read a lot this week on what the experts are saying; and keep coming back to a modified strategy based something David Bearman (ESPN Deputy Sports Betting Editor) concocted for last year and reusing this year. I had similar bets last year as well, so our wave lengths must be aligning.

Last year and this year, I'm leaning KC to Win, but also want to make a few $$ should TB be able to find a way to win a close one. Here the plays I have to go after that:

KC (victory margin 7-12) + 350 for a pizza
TB M/L + 145 for two pizzas
KC - 3 -120 for three pizzas
TB (victory margin 1-6) for a pizza
KC - 7.5 +180 for a pizza

I don't like the hook on that last one, but as its a prop, I can't buy it down to seven. So if KC wins by 8 its +480 for me. IF TB wins by 6, its +140 (basically a push with the money line; but if it lands exactly on KC -3 then its - 500 - however there is a hedge prop for game margin exactly 3 that pays +370 so for 1.5 pizzas this all becomes a push.

That's my initial setup for sunday, I'm sure after the first score we will see a +150 line move depending on the circumstances, so will be watching with pizzas ready to jump on that.

There are also some fun props like the Doink bet at +370, but it has to be a miss on a FG not a PAT; as well as Overtime +800 and a Safety +800; +1200 if you want to pick a half.

Anyway, grab some nachos and salsa, enjoy the game, DN8R

Players, fans must respect COVID-19 danger for safe Super ...
[Search domain www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2021/02/04/ ... 19-danger-

A barber's positive Covid-19 test causes scare for the ...
[Search domain www.wfsb.com/news/a-barbers-positive-co ... _id=995300] https://www.wfsb.com/news/a-barbers-pos ... _id=995300
The Chiefs got a Covid-19 scare a week before the Super Bowl when it was learned that a barber giving members of the organization haircuts had tested positive for Covid-19, according to multiple ...
Over 20 Chiefs players, staffers nearly exposed to COVID ...
[Search domain chiefswire.usatoday.com/2021/02/03/kansas-city-chiefs-covid-19-positive-barber-super-bowl-lv-patrick-mahomes/] https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2021/02 ... k-mahomes/
..
[Search domain www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/02/0 ... re-barber/] https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2 ... re-barber/
1 day ago about 20 Chiefs players and staffers, a group thought to include quarterback Patrick Mahomes, were supposed to get haircuts last weekend by a barber who tested positive for the coronavirus.

WC,
That was three days ago now. The NFL is testing the super bowl pool twice a day with no positives reported as of yet. The line has been KC -3 for a week now, so play on

DN8R

Mattress Mack back in the news. About $3.4 million on the Bucs.

House of Orange wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:02 pm Mattress Mack back in the news. About $3.4 million on the Bucs.

That’ll be a nice score at +145

There was another big bet last week reported, thinking $2.8 million on Bucs. Hope they know something we don’t know.

I would tend to pick the Bucs, but i grew up being an AFL kid ... only dime store bookies here so no bet is the smart bet

Well, the Bucs came thru

After the first two punts the In-game line had jumped to TB +180 as the books were in denial and it cost them four+ pizzas. Even at TB 14-6 TB was still positive action In-game until that crushing TD at the end of the first half. Even then they had KC -7.5 for the second half betting expecting a KC comeback that never materialized.

It was another fun year of football and a net increase in pizzas. See ya next year, DN8R