Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Well, the numbers moved and there’s reports that TB is missing four starting receivers this week, so I opted for Dallas and LAR. For a couple of pizzas, a 7 pt teaser: Bal -1/2, Dal -2.5, LAR +3.5.

There’s a voice telling me to take Sea +10 (season on the brink) and LV if I can get it to +10. Though I resist the local bias.

DN8R

HI darthN--I like your picks above(post tease applied), and especially the the Dal -2.5.

My top props under consideration:
Jalen Hurts(under 217.5)---Although his o/u started at 249.5 last week I still see the 217.5 moving even lower.
APeterson (Over 33.5)
I could not find a prop on JordonLove and Jfields not playing.
More opinions later,

All the best,

Well, missed a good opportunity last night for teasing, as last three weeks have been carnage....

I just chopped a survivor pot and locked up a win for the year there, which is good as its another tough week of games for parlays. I like SF teased down, and Dal teased up. I still don't have a side yet on BUF/INDY, so that kinda leads to TB or TEN (sorry Stevo - but your Texans have a mess on their hands). PIT is always a live dog, but not without a QB. Ditto BAL and Lamar's unknown illness.

This will be a last minute ticket, only personal pizzas this week, DN8R

Thx DarthN--I agree that Pitt/balt are both tough to read right now.

Last week-- I won my top prop bet : Jalen Hurts UNDER passing yards so my season long pressed up wager from (mostly JFields-Under), continues to soar. I will set it aside for a potential placement on JF in the near future(or possibly a placement prior to a JF wager(Providing it survives til then).

Last week--I lost my secondary pick of Ad Peterson OVER rush yards.

Im still monitoring my winning streak on Justin Fields Under on passing yards(The bias had been pushed so low that I am now waiting for his passing yards total to be pushed higher & the past two weeks this seems to be occurring as I expected). I'm watching for his totals to be pushed higher /higher and then for the Arizona game I may have another opportunity to wager the Under.

*My top prop /only prop pick this week: SF rb Jeff Wilson UNDER 79.5 yards rushing.


May you all cash tickets,

Tgold - I figured you'ld jump back on the JF train as the books likely over corrected after last week. That JH looks good though..

I narrowed the parlay for this week with a 7 point teaser, so I have Indy +14, SF + 1/2, and DAL + 9.5. That pays 13 for every 10. I'm watching the DAL line hoping it moves to +3 --> +10, we'll see. Got some pizzas on it and holding a few more for the KC/DAL in game.

DN8R

PS Passed on TB as -11 ---> -4 isn't the best number....

Well today we saw the classic battle for the back door teaser cover. That 1/2 point I couldn’t get lead to a Dallas loss on the third lead instead of a push. Fortunately, I had a pizza on KC -4 for the middle that turned into another week pushing.

Well, at old, the JH under came thru again, DN8R

I had TB team total under 30.5. Had to sweat that out.

I also like Titans under there team total this week. Got it at 19.5.

Good job r_ventura_23 .
re:TB under30.5 --I would have been hesitant on this one. I like your thoughts this week on Titans Under 19.5 team total.

My only nfl prop last week was a winner: SF rb Jeff Wilson (under 79.5 yds rushing), as he rushed for 50 yds. Though it was my top pick I only wagered 1.0 unit.
Im still watching Chi QB Justin Fields with hope his total yds passing will be artificially inflated so I can wager again on the under. I was optimistic his performance vs ravens would help with my objective so I could wager his Under against Arizona in two weeks. However, he passed for 79 yards on 4/11 passing and on the bench after 3rd Qtr. He has Detroit this week so maybe a good performance vs Lions will induce the sportsbooks' to adjust the yards total upward. I can only hope.



All the best,

One BetMGM customer in Virginia managed to turn $50 into more than $1 million thanks to a wild 15-leg parlay.



"This seems suspiciously like our forum veteran: DarthNator."

A partial snippet of the article as referenced from Sam Cooper of yahoo sports is below.
______________________________________________________________________________________________


And making it more impressive, the bettor utilized basically the entire sports spectrum in order to cash this ticket. The parlay featured bets on eight college teams, three NHL teams, two NFL teams, one NBA team and a golfer.

Here is every leg of the parlay, all of which miraculously hit:

Vegas Golden Knights +2.5 (-105)
Cal State Fullerton ML (-150)
Rhode Island -5.5 (-110)
UConn -24.5 (-110)
Miami Ohio -9.5. (-110)
Wake Forest -9.5 (-110)
Michigan State -2.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks ML (-190)
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+150)
Washington Capitals -1.5 (+200)
New England Patriots ML (-275)
Houston ML (-300)
Oklahoma ML (-175)
Jin Young Ko (+500)
Baltimore Ravens ML (-250)

That’s a wacky ticket for sure.

Both the pros and the Joe’s are warning that this week of nfl games is the toughest they faced in years. Compounding that I’m out of state till Saturday so I can’t bet the three Thursday games between six teams that all lost last week - as Alfred E. would say “DRECK”.

However if it was taco Thursday (don’t risk a pizza here boys and girls) these are the three turkeys I’d parlay: Det +3 —-> +10; JF be damned; Dal teased down to Pick; and NO +6 —-> +13. It’s the hold your nose parlay.

Now on to Sunday.... more noseholders... another 7 point teaser with NE (and/or the under teased to less than 51), Bucs to +4 (maybe); or GB +8, or Sea + 8. Then I see there’s Japan baseball....

I may be back Sunday with a play; until then, be careful out there, DN8R

Today we are mixing up things and have two examples of leveraging.....these might appear complicated at first glimpse, so you may need to read thru twice....

First, as I mentioned last week, I was a semi-finalist in a survivor pool, which is where everyone buys in to the pot and picks a team that must win that week; then the following week you pick a different team, etc, etc, until one person is left and gets the whole pot. This year I'm in a couple - one is for $24,000 and I got knocked out two weeks ago in the midst of all those upsets. The second is for $2,065 and last week it was me and another guy. So we "chopped" it and each took $900 and opted to play for the title and the $265 balance. Last week, we both picked winners. I found out today that he had Dallas Thursday night which was upset by Da Raiders. I would have picked Dallas, but had already used them, so I picked NE. So, if NE wins tomorrow, I get another $265. NE is at home against the Tennessee Titans, who are banged up and getting 7 points as the underdog. Since the pool is picking winners straight up, the Titans on the money line is +250 - i.e for every $100 bet - you win $250. I'm going to bet a small hedge on the Titans, since if they win I'll exploit the +250 and still have a two man race in the pool as both contestants losing pushes to next week. The cost to enter the pool was $50, so I'm thinking lay $50 at +250 which wins $175; or lay the full $265 which wins $927.50; or somewhere in between, likely closer to the lower than the higher, since afterall they are banged up and Vrabal beat Belichek last time - and Bill never forgets.

OK, hope that wasn't too boring. Wednesday the folks at William Hill emailed me an interesting offer: Make $1000 (or more) in bets this Thanksgiving weekend, and get $300 in free bets in 2022, getting one $25 free bet per month for 12 months. Everyone, check your apps and see what they are offering. So, I decided to go for it, as the vig on 2 $500 bets is $45.45. For example: a line at -110 pays $954.45 for $500 bet. So I picked the first NFL game tomorrow that had a hook ( +/- 1/2 ) so there will be no worry of a tie. That game is the loser bowl between the NY Jets (+ 2.5 -110) and the Hou Texans ( -2.5 -110). Yeah Stevo - I'm keeping an eye on this game tomorrow too, buddy! I picked that early game as WH takes about 60-90 minutes after the contest to update accounts. Obviously we're not talking pizzas here this week, but the opportunity to get $300 worth of pizzas for $45 is a worthy goal. Sure, six months of no NFL action means I might be doing a bit more golf betting, but since a winner usually pays 6 (or more) to 1; I'm okay with that. BTW, I rolled the $900 won in the survivor pool chop to WH to fund this effort; so that'll be a nice bluebird multiplier.

Ok, and just for giggles here's this weeks teaser: a 7 pointer for pizzas....NE -7 ---> Pk, TB -3 ----> +4, and either GB +1.5 ---> 8.5 or BAL -3.5 ---> +3.5. Yeah, I know that's chalky, but it is what it is.......

How 'bout dem Cowboys? DN8R

Hi DarthN
Congrats on the Survivor Pool win. I like your strategic approach on that as well as your exploitation of bonuses via sportsbooks.

DN: "just for giggles here's this weeks teaser: a 7 pointer for pizzas....NE -7 ---> Pk, TB -3 ----> +4, and either GB +1.5 ---> 8.5 or BAL -3.5 ---> +3.5. Yeah, "

I like ur GB teaser: GB +1.5 ---> 8.5


*My top prop/ only prop this week is : Browns QB BakerM -- tot yards passing (209.5) OVER . Im only wagering one unit.


May you all cash tickets,

Thanks Tgold, overnight the GB line went to +2, while Bal went down, so I took GB +9 with the other two this morning and GB is up by 19 as Q3 ends. More pizzas...

DN8R

Had to sweat out Titans under 19.5 came through. Also had a parlay ending with GB on moneyline. Hedged it with the Rams +5.5.....but missed the middle.

DarthN: "..overnight the GB line went to +2, while Bal went down, so I took GB +9 with the other two this morning and GB is up by 19 as Q3 ends. More pizzas..."
Good wins --I saw the GB line move and had been monitoring for a wager ATS(didnt pull the trigger). I think aRogers is playing with an attitude right now and will be difficult to stop as we approach playoffs. Hopefully the SpBooks will give us decent spots.

r_ventura_23: "..Had to sweat out Titans under 19.5 came through."
LOL-yes i checked in on that score a couple times and thought of you. Crazy game.
re: Your wager with rams: 5.5, I cant really figure out the rams as their consistency on offense(or lack of) is difficult to analyze for wagering purposes. I do like Staff/kupp go-to tandom come playoff time/will be monitoring for potential wagers on moneyline and or ATS.


Tgold: As indicated above on 11/28: "*My top prop/ only prop this week is : Browns QB BakerM -- tot yards passing (209.5) OVER . Im only wagering one unit."
WINNER as Baker 209.5 OVER was (247). I didnt put "pressed-up" wager on this one so only picked up 1.0 U.



All the best,

Well, it’s Week # 13, and chalk appears to be re-entering the universe. There are some interesting matchups this week. I’m looking at a core approach this week as I like teasing TB, Indy, and KC down by 7 to 4 or 3 as the hooks we saw on Tuesday are gone. So a couple of pizzas on that and then pairing the core with separate fourth legs. I don’t like tonight’s game, too many question marks. I really like the MNF match up esp if NE gets back to +3 teased to +10.
I also like ARZ teased down and am waiting for that number to go to -7 from -7.5.
Another game that I’m considering is DET at +7 teasing to +14, but I don’t follow either enough to assign a high confidence about that game.

We’ll see how the lines move after Friday’s injury updates, DN8R

Thx DarthN and others for opinions/picks.

DarthN-- From the ones u mention above my favorite is the teasing dn of KC.
This morning they ae now standing at +9.5(Perfect time to tease it down??).

*Im now monitoring NFL teams recently eliminated from playoffs and also the following week immediately after being eliminated(Difficult to motivate players and potential for larger lobsided defeat). Just my opinion of course.

**My best/only wager and top prop bet: SF qb Jimmy G Tot Pass yds(219.5) "OVER" .
This is receiving my season-long winning streak pressed-up wager. The O/U moved to 220.5 as of this morning and I expect it will continue a movement slightly upward by game time. I've already booked it so optimistic no late injuries or other issues.

Best of skill to everybody.


"Good teams win, Great teams cover"

Tgold wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:58 pm DarthN-- From the ones u mention above my favorite is the teasing dn of KC.
This morning they ae now standing at +9.5(Perfect time to tease it down??).

*I'm now monitoring NFL teams recently eliminated from playoffs and also the following week immediately after being eliminated(Difficult to motivate players and potential for larger lobsided defeat). Just my opinion of course.

**My best/only wager and top prop bet: SF qb Jimmy G Tot Pass yds(219.5) "OVER" .

I like the Jimmy G plays as well, and looks like your buddy, JF, may play this week, so teasing ARZ looks better now and KC netting -2.5 is nice too. Almost tempting to go with the 6.5 teaser. I've cooled and going to pass on the DET+14. TB now at -10.5 --> leading me again to the 6.5 teaser. As does PHL -6.5 going to pick'em. Still seeing money moving to BUF, so waiting to see if NE can get to +3

DN8R

Had two parlays. First was Cowgirls Vikings Bucs and KC all on the money line. Sure enough Detroit wins there first game of the year. Loser

2nd one. Parlayed J Taylor, Fournette and Mixon all to score a TD. That one was a winner.

Those are some nice parlays. I had Min in a survivor consolation pool, Min is my albatross either they win the pool for me or lose it.

I had my core three bet Friday; then got two more tickets, the first was with the core three adding ARZ; and the second was the core with Pit +4.5 ——> +11.5. I chickened out on another ticket with DET +14.5; and also passed on NE +10 when I heard it was snowing in Buf; we’ll wait for the rematch in Foxboro.

What was even better was my SNF hedge as all the tickets were tied to KC net -3. So after KC scored that first TD, the Station’s app had an In-Game alterNate line of Den + 15.5 +138. I hit that for a couple of pizzas as insurance. That was brilliant until the pick six. Then Teddy “I never met a garbage time I didn’t like” Bridgewater relaxed and marched Den down to the back door cover.

I’m really interested in tonight’s game, hope it lives up to the hype