Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

GREETINGS AMISH DUDE.

listen dude, the idea of this game is not to make your point in4 toss's.
the idea is to try to make your point in 20 toss's or 30 or 40 or 50, and
if you're lucky you will make your point after 100 toss's. luck tonight dude.

JAIME. F.S.P.R.

AD: The point is to not seven out until you are ready. There is not a person on this board that would not be happy to do 20 tosses per hand. Making the 4 is basically irrelevant. If four is your point and you make it, guess what? Ya get to do it again. Make hay on the eights.

AD - The others are correct, though if you are a low-bankrolled player, like myself, PL bets may be all you're playing in which case I can see it being frustrating not being able to quickly bring back your point. I've also never been keen on place bets, which might help explain my affinity for playing DP. I don't even play more than a PL bet when I'm shooting!

Okay, who's going to put together the comparison? Let's assume a $10 3-4-5X odds game. Pass Line with max odds for four winners. Since AD likes the 8 let's make the point twice, the five once, the four once, then the ten followed by a seven out. Total of ten tosses. Compare PL with max odds (average bet in the $50 range) to $44 inside and $64 across. No press. What's the bottom line in this situation?

Heavy wrote:Okay, who's going to put together the comparison? Let's assume a $10 3-4-5X odds game. Pass Line with max odds for four winners. Since AD likes the 8 let's make the point twice, the five once, the four once, then the ten followed by a seven out. Total of ten tosses. Compare PL with max odds (average bet in the $50 range) to $44 inside and $64 across. No press. What's the bottom line in this situation?

when you say 44 inside you mean 22 each on the 6 + 8 for a place bet a point of 8 pays you $28 X 2 = $46 for 2 toss's im assuming we had $22 on it! 4 pays you $20 5 forget? $ !:)10 pays $20 making the same point twice $10 pass line bet is another $20
we are up to $96 to have fun for a 1/2 hour ?
or is my math all wrong ?

Heavy wrote:Okay, who's going to put together the comparison? Let's assume a $10 3-4-5X odds game. Pass Line with max odds for four winners. Since AD likes the 8 let's make the point twice, the five once, the four once, then the ten followed by a seven out. Total of ten tosses. Compare PL with max odds (average bet in the $50 range) to $44 inside and $64 across. No press. What's the bottom line in this situation?

$44 Inside is $10 5/9 and $12 6/8.

Heavy: Obviously, it all depends on what the 10 numbers you use. But let's see what we can do...

How about 8-2-8-5-4-6-10-5-11-9-7 This gives a variety of box numbers, and 1 CO winner.
PL w/ odds: Point 8 (win) = +$70, Point 5 (win) = +$70, CO win = +$10, Point 9 (lose) -$50 Total +$100
$44 Across WOTCO: 8x2 = +$28, 5x2 = +$28, 6 = +$14, 9 = +$14, 7-out = -$44 Total +$40
$64 Across WOTCO: 8x2 = +$28, 5x2 = +$28, 6 = +$14, 9 = +$14, 4 = +$18, 10 = +$18, 7-out = -$64 Total +$56

Now if you only make the first point, and not a second, thing change...we'll swap the 9 with the first 5 to get 8-2-8-9-4-6-10-5-11-5-7
PL w/ odds: Point 8 (win) = +$70, Point 9 (lose) -$50 Total +$20


I think I got all that right...

Amish, "Inside" are the four inside numbers (5,6,8,9) and across are all the numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10). You might want to take a quick refresher by reading the Glossary: Maddog's Glossary of DI Terms

$44 "Inside" is" $10 on the five, $12 on the six, $12 on the eight, and $10 on the nine.

$64 "Across" is: $10 on the four, $10 on the five, $12 on the six, $12 on the eight, $10 on the nine, and $10 on the ten..

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Not sure I follow the example Heavy gave of how the rolls are tossed, but I think it goes something like this:
Roll 1 ~ 8 - set point
Roll 2 ~ 8 - make point
Roll 3 ~ 8 - set point
Roll 4 ~ 8 - make point
Roll 5 ~ 5 - set point
Roll 6 ~ 5 - make point
Roll 7 ~ 4 - set point
Roll 8 ~ 4 - make point
Roll 9 ~ 10 - set point
Roll 10 ~ 7 out

$44 Inside pays (assume we are not working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ the eight twice for $14 each -- $28
~ the five once for $14 -- $14
~ the four once for $0 -- not bet
~ the seven out for (-$44)
Grand Total a loss of ($2).

$44 Inside pays (assume we ARE working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ the eight four time for $14 each -- $56
~ the five twice for $14 -- $28
~ the four twice for $0 -- not bet
~ the seven out for (-$44)
Grand Total a win of $40.

$64 Across pays (assume we are not working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ the eight twice for $14 each -- $28
~ the five once for $14 -- $14
~ the four once for $19 -- $19
~ the seven out for (-$64)
Grand Total a loss of ($3).

$64 Across pays (assume we ARE working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ the eight four times for $14 each -- $56
~ the five twice for $14 -- $28
~ the four twice for $19 -- $38
~ the seven out for (-$64)
Grand Total a win of $58.

$10 PL w/Max 3x/4x/5x odds
~ the eight twice for $10 PL & $60 for odds -- $140
~ the five once for $10 PL & $60 -- $70
~ the four once for $10 PL & $60 -- $70
~ the seven out for -$10 PL & -$30 max odds (3x on 10) -- -$40
Grand Total a win of $240.

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Now let me shake up Heavy's roll sequence a bit so that it goes something like this:
Roll 1 ~ 6 - set point
Roll 2 ~ 8 - a number
Roll 3 ~ 8 - a number
Roll 5 ~ 5 - a number
Roll 7 ~ 4 - a number
Roll 4 ~ 8 - a number
Roll 6 ~ 5 - a number
Roll 8 ~ 6 - Make the point
Roll 9 ~ 10 - set point
Roll 10 ~ 7 out

$44 Inside pays (assume we are not working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ A total of six inside hits @ $14 each -- $84
~ the seven out for (-$44)
Grand Total a win of $40.

$44 Inside pays (assume we ARE working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ A total of seven inside hits @ $14 each -- $98
~ the seven out for (-$44)
Grand Total a win of $54.

$64 Across pays (assume we are not working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ A total of six inside hits @ $14 each -- $84
~ A total of one outside hit @ $19 -- $19
~ the seven out for (-$64)
Grand Total a win of $39.

$64 Across pays (assume we ARE working on come-out rolls and have no PL, but place the point);
~ A total of seven inside hits @ $14 each -- $98
~ A total of two outside hit @ $19 -- $38
~ the seven out for (-$64)
Grand Total a win of $72.

$10 PL w/Max 3x/4x/5x odds
~ Made one point (the 6), $10 PL & $60 in odds (5X on 6) - $70
~ the seven out for -$10 PL & -$30 max odds (3x on 10) -- (-$40)
Grand Total a win of $30.

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So you can get quite different win/loss results depending on how the roll results come out, but I find that the way I listed the numbers is what I see as pretty common for a lot of DI hands.

To answer your original question Amish. I look at my PL bet as the "gravy" bet and the necessary bet (i.e. you have to make the PL or DP to shoot). But I desire, by far, trying to get in as many hits as possible before the seven occurs. with the PL, if you are using your odds appropriately, then you basically need to hit something like 45% wins to break even (I probably have that percentage wrong but it is a bit less then half), so I don't worry to much about the point and let it take care of itself. Instead I focus on a repetitive toss that improves the probability of repetitive numbers and try to take advantage of that. My logic is that it is much easier to try and repeat then it is to chase.

Good thread, guys. Thanks for crunching the numbers.

amish dude, please induldge me a moment as I pick at a few of these comments:

amish dude wrote:...So if i understand correctly chase the #'s not the point, cause your more likely to make numbers over points...

I would not use the term 'chase the numbers'. Let me put it another way; you develop a consistent stance/grip/toss.. you use those mechanics with a certain dice-set and record a consistent variance over certain numbers using that set... why not focus all efforts on keepig that going? You are not really "chasing" numbers, but instead you are trying to repeat a consistent pattern at the table and capitolize on that repeating pattern.

"Repeating Pattern" might be to specific a phrase for what I'm trying to convey, because all we are doing with DI is slightly influencing the PROBABILITY that certain numbers will come up more frequently then normal. That influence may be as small as 1 more eight in 36 throws, or it may show up as a spurt of eights, and it can also show as less eights then expected during a particular session. But over time and several sessions you will achieve more eights then expected (using eight as an example... could be any number based on your set and mechanics). Now if you are changing your set constantly based on the POINT that is set on the come-out, how many opportunities will you have with each of the dice sets being used to establish the affect of a small change in probability based on your influence?

I think too many folks get in their head a picture like, "Point is 8, I'll set the 3V and in two or three tosses I'll repeat that 8". That IS the goal, but many get frustrated when it does not happen automagically every time. Yeah the 3V increases the probability of a 6 or 8 (when thrown correctly), but an increase in probability is NOT a GUARANTEE. In fact even if you toss two additional eights in 36 tries you have only increased the probability of tossing an eight to 19%... 19% is way less then a 50/50 proposition. Think on that.

amish dude wrote:...I always shot for the 7 on the come out roll as you say its gravy which I use for Odds...

Yeah nothing wrong with setting and tossing for 7's (or horns) on the come-out. Again you are going to use a consistent "Your-Special-Come-Out-Set" every time so go for it.

amish dude wrote:...How about the 3-V set toss it if I'm on rotation which is 60% of the time will get a 6=30% or 8 =50%...

Ok, sorry, but this is just bullshit. I can accept the notion that you are showing an increase in the percentage with the 6 & 8 using the 3V, but there is no way on this planet that it is 30% and 50%. You have an increased probability of 6&8, that is good, and if the point is either 6 or 8 then for sure use the 3V, hit 6&8 and collect on both the Place bet and your Pass-Line/w Odds. If the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, then I would be inclined to say STAY with the 3V and Place-Bet the 6&8 and continue to collect on those hits, if you make the point of 5 in the process, then super, that is the "gravy" that I was talking about.

amish dude wrote:...as shown I have an advantage over the table, which I do buy making 3 points 10,9,8 on a fire bet throw last time I was there...

One lucky outing does not indicate advantage over the table. The fact that you did it was fantastic. I'm not saying this to be argumentative, just saying keep things in perspective. Keep good records and if you show that you hit 3 to the fire significantly over many session, then you are in a better position to authenticate that you have an advantage over the table.

amish dude wrote:...when i heard heavy talk about his buddy driving 4 hours to the casino $1,000 on PL place the 6 and 8 for a $1,000 each toss point of 6 comes back and hits the 8 then the 6 turns around and drives 4 hours home for a day of work that is what im trying to do from what Ive observed from the way i toss , making a point and come right back and make the point in 4 toss's or less.

This is a good goal, but again read what I posted above, DI does not generally work this way. Be sure you don't jump in with both feet until you have proven over several session that you are getting it done. If it can be done at the $1000 level, then it can be done at the $10 level also. So drive 4 hours to the casino, bet $10 on the Pass-Line with $20 in odds, and Place the 6&8 for $12 each. Hit the 6, hit the 8, then hit the 6, take your $46 in winnings and drive 4 hours home.

If you cannot do that because it is not worth your time at that level, then you are treading in dangerous water. You have got to be able to do this without emotion, with conviction, and with determination. That is, you need to do it this way if you are really wanting to be able to earn a "days-pay" at the casino. If you are unable to do this, you really will have a difficult time getting over the hump of playing beyond "recreational gambler" and win-some, lose-some results. Read Sam Grafstien, read John Patrick, see the patterns in what they say and the approach to gambling at the professional level.

Amish, I have only the best intentions and best wishes for your success. Hopefully you will not see my comments as anything more then unsolicited helpful comments.

I think after 4 points are made then go for last 2 points fast.

UNHH!!The object is to win UNHH!!How that is done may vary with each brave UNHH!!Name of game is craps-OBJECT is get their wampum