Bet Efficiency

[sharkbyte]

I'm pretty sure MP has an article covering this, but I was running through a couple of bet progressions and was looking for a way to determine if the changes were better or worse.

In this particular case I was increasing a 3-step No 4/10 progression from 40-120-360 to 40-160-520. A $200 increase, for the series; but was that extra $200 well spent?

What I came up with was to take the monies won, for my test sessions: 4499/6405 respectively, and divide that against the total amounts of the bets placed, by actual decision. For a No 10, I only counted rolls of 10 or 7. I called this my Bet Efficiency.

For the first progression - 40-120-360 - I ended up with 4499/28413 for 15.83%.

The second - 40-160-520 - I calculated 6405/36039 for 17.77%.

So I came to the conclusion that the incresed bet progression was money well spent, but it's still something to watch because if you're not careful a progression can get too big to actually be worth playing.

Also, for a different perspective, I calculated the same using the best performing set with most 8s and lesat 7s. Using a flat $6 bet the percentage came back about 9.01%. The difficulty with this comparison is that it's easier to push your place bet, and with so many bet variations, a 1-to-1 comparison is nearly impossible.

Thoughts?