Post
by heavy » Fri May 03, 2013 11:14 pm
Well, well well. This is one of those questions that will stir some discussion, and one that I find interesting in that Dice Coach and I are fine tuning our new TrendMasters session for GAC. Yes, many of the veterans around here will tell you charting is just dice voodoo. Many of these same players will tell you their "power" number "proven" via BoneTracker is the nine - but when they go to the casino they can't throw a nine if their life depended on it. I know because I have a reputation for being able to toss nines on demand - yet the number that defeats me most often when it comes to scoring all six on the Fire bet is the nine. Why is that? Well, I have some ideas.
In this example, I am assuming that we're talking about a mixed table, with some DI's, some randies, and maybe even a Don't player in the mix. Most of you guys know that I started out way back when as a dyed in the wool charter. I played successfully for many years by charting, following the trend, and playing a conservative regression strategy - classic John Patrick moves - and this was BEFORE I ever undertook influencing the dice. I know that this will absolutely work based on my own experiences in playing for profit. Add to it certain . . . do I dare say "laws" . . . of physics (and yes, I'll even toss in "energy") and I think you can identify specific causal events . . . call them "indicators" if you will . . . that influence the results of the roll. I'll mention one just as an example. "Point is five - bet the play side nine." One of the strategies we've tested for years in the seminars calls for one player to bet nothing but the play side of the established point on each hand. I can't begin to tell you how many times this strategy has proven to be the best (and second most boring) strategy at the table. What's the old law of physics? Opposites attract? What's on the bottom of the dice when the five is facing up? The nine. Bet on it. But instead of me hijacking this thread completely let me address the questions asked.
In essence you asked if one should follow the trend or buck the trend. The answer should ALWAYS (IMHO) be follow the trend. And now I'm going to step back into TrendMaster mode and ask a question. Is is easier to swim upstream or downstream? Why not go with the flow? Why not "back the winning horse," to borrow a phrase from Grafstein? Bucking the trend is essentially falling back on "due number" theory. On another thread Dice Coach mentioned a session we played at the Cannery where the NINE was "missing" for sixty rolls. I call these numbers "prodigal" numbers. They've taken a trip off the table and are hanging out with Philistines, chowing down on chitterlings and boiled crawfish. Okay, maybe they're hanging out with a bunch of Coon Asses. You get my drift. They're not going to come home until they're partied out. Then they're going to come home and puke all over the living room. By that I mean - when that number comes home it brings the seven with it. Bullshit, you say? Then you haven't charted enough numbers.
Whew. So much for that side trip. Let me expand further on my answer about following the trend. On this table the six and ten are the power numbers. The eight is a "middling" number. Three numbers. That's all I need and all I need to know. Those are the three numbers I want - PARTICULARLY if the first buy on the ten is free. However, I want to take my charting one step beyond and identify which SHOOTERS I'm charting are tossing the most sixes, eights and tens and which ones are sevening out quickly. I am going to tailor my play to the individual shooters.
Let's start with my right side play. On the shooters I've decided to play the right side on I am going to bet the six, eight, and ten. Depending on my bankroll for the session, I might play $18 each on the six and eight and a $25 Buy on the Ten. Odds are my strategy will be to "same bet" the six and eight for three to four hits. I am going to immediately double my bet each time the Ten hits, so it will go from $25 to $50 to $100 to $200 - and on my next press to $250, where I'll likely stay (assuming I get that far). Once I've locked up at least $70 I'll start pressing every other hit on the six or eight - whichever rolls. Why? Because that's the way I like to play on a proven table. That is VERY aggressive IMHO and not for most of you. On the other side of the coin - I know a couple of guys around here who would jump in and "race" me to see who could get the most money on the table first. Okay if the hand is prolonged. Not so long if not. Which gets me to charting average hand-length of these shooters. It's certainly something to consider when it comes time to think about taking a regression - or taking your bets down.
Now, in your original premise you mentioned that certain numbers - notably the four and five - have been off partying with the Coon Asses. IMHO this is clearly a Don't opportunity. $25 Don't Pass. $41 No Four as a partial hedge on the come out. Wait for the point to be established. Let's say the point is the Six. Don't like the exposure since it's a hot number? Place the six for $24. Take down the Lay bet on the Four. Now you have a guaranteed win of $1 or $3, whether the player makes his pass or not. But what the heck? $31 No Five is just as good of a hedge as the No Four bet and you risk $10 less. You might even want to leave your Lay bets up since those numbers are on vacation. But before making these decisions I would AGAIN take a look at my charting of the individual players to determine who the historical shooters were and which shooters were the Philistines.
As for the dice having no memory - my friend Dylanfreake said it as well as anyone. They have no memory - but they do have a history. And history has a way of repeating itself.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
UNHH!!Kelph brave playem right out of book 
UNHH!!Question K B will your rig sustain 85 fully loaded ?