When to get in, When to press?

[elephanttracks]

Hi Guys{ We've all been there at some time , A good hand starts to develop and we're gun shy cause we are down to near our loss limit, or the table has been choppy and we're just scared to bet much...At what point do you go ahead and get in the action , or do you just continue to chart?

This happened to Hinduman and myself in Vegas 4 yrs ago...I was $800 down for the trip and was down $300 for that session...I bet on V3Setter's hand and wound up + $400 for my trip and quit playing as I was to fly out the next morning... A $1200 swing, not much profit but I was down quite a bit for me...Hinduman kept charting and won ---Nothing!!!! I believe at some point in V3Setter's hand everyone at the table should tip-toe in with a minimum bet...What do you think...

This past Tuesday while we practiced Hinduman tossed an 81 roll hand , here's his numbers: 8-11-11-5-4-9-8 9-9 -6-10-5-10-10-8-8-8-5-8-6 7-5-6-5 8-8 9-9 8-6-2-8 9-8-4-4-11-6-9 3-10-6-8-8-6-4-5-8-9-11-9-10 5-5 9-5-4-6-6-5-8-8-5-5-11-8-8-2-10-9 4-5-4 7-8-8 10-6-5-9-6-7

What a hand!!!!!!!!..Please look at the hand and see at what point you would have placed a bet or bets and where and what you would have pressed.....How much could he have made betting aggressively or by any method you like....Thanks Tracks PS: Again this is for educational purposes only to help all of us see where we can improve...Heavy any thoughts?
Did anyone get to table max?

[heavy]

Knowing Hinduman, I would have been in from the get-go. But given the scenario you outlined, let me run through some keys I'd use simply for demonstration purposes - assuming this was a player unknown to me. No action on the initial come out. After the second row yo I would have bet a $4 horn. On the hit press to $8 - collect $8. Five rolls - I am plus $4 at this point. No action. When the next inside number - the 5 - rolls - I'll play something like $66 inside. Eight rolls - Collect $21 - regress to $22 inside. Now I have net $3 win in the rack ant $22 action. Nine rolls - same bet - collect $7 - plus $10. Nine rolls again - press it to $10 - lock up $2 - $12 ahead. Six rolls - $7 racked - $19 ahead. Ten rolls - no impact on me. Five rolls - pays $7 - lock up $2 - $21 ahead. Ten rolls again - place it for $10 - $11 ahead. Ten repeats - pays $18 - press to $25 buy - lock up $3 - $14 ahead. Eight rolls - collect $7 - ahead $21. Okay, let me pause here and talk about what I'm doing here a bit. I'm taking on the first time any number hits - pressing after that - I'm also pressing every other hit on the inside. I bet the four and ten the first time they appear after I have a profit in the rack. On the second hit on the four or ten I'll immediately go to $25 buy. After that I double my bet on the four and ten on every hit. Continuing for a few more tolls - I don't have time to go through the entire $81 numbers ... next roll we repeat on the eight and I press to $12. Following roll the eight repeats and I take $14. Five rolls and I press to $10 and lock up $2. Eight rolls again and I take $21. Six rolls and I collect - since this was his point I don't press it. No action on the come out. Okay, I'll stop there except to hit a couple of highlights through the rest of the series. The next eight that rolls will pay $21 - I'll drop $3 on top of that and take it to $42. The next hit on the eight will pay me $50 for $1 and I'll probably stay at that level for the next two or three hits on the eight. From there I'd press to $60 - $80 - $120 - then regress to $30, pressing back up in $30 increments every hit until the ugly number shows. On the five and nines - press them up to $35 each - take a couple of $50 for one hits - then take them up in $50 increments to $100 - then regress to $25 each and take them back up with $25 pressure on every hit. No regressions on the four or ten. Just keep pressing every hit until you hit table max. Note that "see a horn - bet a horn" only worked on the initial come out series. The rest of the time I would have been screwed. Impressive hand. Wish hinduman had been at the tables with me yesterday. I could have used the help.

[pappyvanwinkle]

It's nice to be in on a hot hand from the beginning, but if you missed it, I'd say it comes with the territory.

During the last outing in Vegas, I believe Memo was in the middle of a nice hand, I arrived on the scene and already watched for a few tosses. Darth Nader asked if I wanted to squeeze in and get in on the hand, I was like I'm good. As Memo's hand progressed, it was looking good, people kept asking me to if I wanted to buy in, I resisted the urge. My comment to some was, this was Memo's moment, and I didn't need to cloud it in anyway. Now, some things to mention, even though people made room for me, this was kinda a full table. I believe I did end up getting in on the hand, I think I bought some chips from someone else and I know I waited until Memo made his point and the dice were in the middle and the dealer was paying winning bets. Even after getting in on the hand, I only had a small amt in action, maybe like $30. I believe I got like one hit and then ugly showed up afterwards.

My point is, like I said before, this was Memo's moment, not mine. If the shooter is getting in the zone, don't do anything to disturb that. If you have to buy in, try to do it with minimal disruption. One of the reasons I didn't buy in the middle of Memo's hand was the box was pretty full, last thing I wanted was the dealer moving all these bets around to account for my position, someone loses track of their position and starts questioning why they weren't paid for blah.

As a bunch of guys who have tossed with me will attest to, if you MAKE ME have to correct someone else's bad etiquette at the table while I'm in the middle of a hand, the hand is done, I'll throw my hands in the air, the hand is finished as far as I care. I might have like $1000 in play and I'll be undone by someone's argument over a $10/12 bet.

So, my answer is get in at the beginning. If you missed the beginning, catch the next hot hand, don't muscle into an existing one. However, if your in a hot hand after you have paid off your bets, press it to the moon!

Pappy

[hinduman]

Thanks for the insight Heavy, I'll next be in B/S next Tuesday for an overnight at El Do. Hope to take that underhand shot with me, too!!!


Hinduman

[Mad Professor]

Hi ElephantTracks,

As invited, I ran that hand through my Mad Professor’s $204-Across equal-payout Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing approach.

That is the method where we start with $204-Across for two paying hits (of $49 each) and then regress everything down to $44-Inside. From there we apply my Passive-Aggressive press-schedule.

~For the 6 or 8 the press-schedule looks like this:

$12......$18......$30.....$42.....$60.....$90.....$120....
$150....$180.....$240.....$300....$420.....$600
.....$900....$1200, etc.

~For the 5 or 9 the press-schedule looks like this:
$10....$15.....$25.....$35.....$50.....$75.....$100....$125.....
$150....$200....$250.....$350.....$500....
$750....$1000, etc.

In terms of post-regression point-cycle pressing (the MP-$204 doesn’t work on the come-outs); there were:

~Eleven 5’s which produced a net of +$1109

~ Eleven 6’s which produced a net of +$1041

~Fourteen 8’s which produced a net of +$2501

~Eight 9’s which produced a net of +$469

…add in the net +$54 that we pulled out of the two-hit regression after we reduced the $204-Across down to $44-Inside…and the MP-$204 produced a net-profit of +$5174.


MP

[Americraps]

Wow, very nice hand Hinduman!
Question for you, MP- Do you ever spread out to include the 4 and 10? On Hindumans hand, he had a total of six fours and seven tens.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Americraps,

Yes, I sometimes add the 4 and 10 back in to my Mad Professor’s $204-Across equal-payout Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing approach after everything has been regressed down to $44-Inside when I am using this on skilled-shooters. However, for the purpose of this exercise, I wanted to maintain the original 'purity' of this approach.

My press-schedule for the 4 & 10 in this case would be:

$15...$25...$35...$50...$75...$100...$150...$250...$350...$500...$750...
$1000...$1500...$2500, etc.

So, six paying-hits on the 4 would net out at +$452, and seven paying-hits on the 10 would net out another +$645.

That would bring the net-win for that hand up to +$6241.


MP

[Americraps]

That's a nice profit!