Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

We all try to not bet on them but most of us do.
What makes you bet on a random roller?
After he makes a point,5 count,or repeats an inside number?
What triggers you to bet on Mr.RR

I'll chart the shooters at the table as well as the table trend and make a decision based on that. If there's a Randy at the table who's tossed a couple of decent hands I'll bet the six and eight or whatever numbers he's demonstrated he can repeat. Once any shooter starts tossing repeating numbers I'll generally get some action out there. If the shooter has demonstrated that he can't make a pass then I'll play the Don'ts when he has the dice and try to capitalize on that. If the table is choppy then consider a hybrid play - like a Don't Pass or Don't Come bet combined with place bets on the six or eight. Basically - following the trend and taking what the table gives you.

I usually bet min on the 6 and 8. I get one pay and then turn them off. Sometimes I wait for two pays then off. I try to get a small profit from each shooter. Another way is double min on the 6 and 8 and when I get one pay I reduce to min on each.

Randys have damn near run me out of the joint. On the contrary, I've also managed to triple my buy in on a randie at NYNY last September. I'm all for taking what the table is giving. We play craps because we like action and a little more coin in our pockets than we walked up to the table with. Does that mean we step into the batters box with $220 inside after the scraggly looking dude in the hook just set his first point? No, but you can press your way up with gradual cover your ass bets along the way. I typically don't shy away from RRs. I do like to ease my way into the hot tub, though.....

irish wrote:Before I state my opinion, I want to make it clear I'm not going to stand at a table with 10 randies.....or 8, and probably not 6 or 5....

However, if I'm playing and there are a couple of randies at the table, there is no reason to NOT bet them with a low vig wager or two and an amount that's fractional of what you bet on yourself. The long term impact of making a pass line wager and single odds on a randie are negligible. The volatility you experience will be based largely on how well you toss on your own hands. Although, sometimes you get a a dandy-randy hand and life is good.

Agree totally. Pass line and small odds and maybe a $6 6 & 8 with one come bet won't kill you but will get you in so you don't miss a monster if someone goes on.

This is my first post on Heavy's forum. I am falcon. On other forums, I am DB+W (Scoblete's forum - ex-communicated there because they just could not deal with me intellectually); tuttigym (the Wizard's forum); and one other from which I was also dismissed. To many, I am a bit contrary, and my approach to this game we all "love" is pretty much outside the box based on what I have personally witnessed at the tables and the absolute fact that, for me, craps is NOT a negative expectation endeavor.

I picked this thread to start on because I am a random roller; I play where the vast majority of players are random rollers (Cherokee, NC and Biloxi, MS), so if my attitude coincided with those who have posted above, I would almost never play for fear that I would lose all that is my own both fame and fortune. But I do play, and I win often. The reason is simply that I am NOT an "establishment" player, i.e., PL/FO; Come/O, nor strictly a DP or DC player. I use the simplicity of the real third grade math of the game and always play when I have more ways to win than to lose on any given roll of the dice. I play with discipline, patience, and focus.

As an aside, I have played with those who practice DI/DC and only once did I personally witness an extended hand of about 33 tosses. The rest were average or below in their play and did not leave the tables on the plus side.

So let's start here and see what transpires.

falcon

Welcome Falcom, did you ever get your book published?

Noah

Welcome Falcon. I remember you from the old GTC site as DB+W. Last time we saw each other was in Tunica many years ago.

Howard rock n roller

acpa wrote:Welcome Falcom, did you ever get your book published?

Noah

Hi Noah, I hope you are well. I have missed our conversations and sometimes the disagreements. It is great to hear from you.

I decided not to publish yet as my game has been evolving and the "research" is continuing. It is important that I get it right and simple so that all players can enjoy winning a high percentage of the time without worrying about who the shooter is rather than using simple arithmetic the game centers on. Even though it is copyrighted, I plan on revising it and resubmitting it for a new copyright, so it will be a little while.

Are you still living in CA? If so, where are you playing? BTW if you learn to play my way, "California" craps (played with cards) is a snap to beat without any fear.

Take good care,

falcon (DB+W)

Howard rock n roller wrote:Welcome Falcon. I remember you from the old GTC site as DB+W. Last time we saw each other was in Tunica many years ago.

Howard rock n roller

Hi Howard, Man this is like old home week for me. As you may know, AirTran stopped flying to Tunica as I was on the last flight out about three years ago just as the great flood engulfed Harrah's. As we were boarding the bus to the airport, the parking lot was starting to fill up. We got out in plenty of time. The next day we saw the video and the whole first floor of our hotel was under water.

The Beau Rivage has taken up the slack and flown us to Biloxi for the past two plus years, and it is now my second home as they treat us like royalty. In fact, we are going there next week for a four day stay.

So where are you frequenting now and when is Florida going to allow table games and come into the 21st Century as North Carolina managed to do last August?

I hope you are well and winning.

falcon (DB+W)

Nice to see a new member on the board, falcon! Welcome! Could we talk you into telling us a little about how you play? If you need to save the info for the book though, I understand.

bobthetree wrote:Nice to see a new member on the board, falcon! Welcome! Could we talk you into telling us a little about how you play? If you need to save the info for the book though, I understand.

Absolutely. I will start with what I believe are givens that drive my approach to the game. Some go against the "establishment" prevailing ways of standard play simply because, IMHO, they are absolutely wrong and lead to multiple losses which for the most part are unrecoverable during any given session.

1. Basing one's play on the "lowest" HA or "vig" is totally foolish in that those wagers are predicated on what I have deemed to be "fantasy" math. Therefore, the PL and Come, for me, are sucker bets which lure the player into dark places of mostly multiple losses especially after the point is established.

2. During any point there are only two numbers that can happen just once, i.e., the point or a 7.

3. During any given hour of play there will be at least two shooters that will have hands of from 10 to 15+ tosses.

4. After the point is established, there are always 30 ways to win and only six ways to lose.

5. While most here believe that you can not win by hedging, I say they really do not understand how to hedge properly.

6. There is no such thing as playing in the "long term" or playing for "expected" outcomes. Those are phantom entities used by the so-called "experts" to justify their fantasy math.

My play starts with the Doey/Don't minimum bets on the PL/DPL.

If the point is a 4,5,9, or 10, I place Don't Odds (no vig to the house and no mandatory minimum for the lay) starting at $30. I then Place $34 on the inside plus $1 each on the hard 4/10 and hop the easy 4/10 for $1 plus a $1 crap check. So for $39 I can win something on just about any given toss of the dice. The worst case scenario here is the shooter converts, and I lose $33 otherwise multiple hits and a 7 out provides me with a winning hand.

I am not foolish enough to believe I can do this every hand and expect to win, so I don't. I allow the table to dictate my play. It has to show me that there are shooters who can convert points, if not I continue to play the Don't/O and sometime w/o any other bets on board. A shooter who converts allows me to play strictly on the "right side" including the FO. Therefore, if the table is cold, I am there; a choppy table is tougher but doable with some restraint and discipline; and a "hot" shooter or table takes me a bit longer to jump on, but I do. There is more, but the basics are laid out here.

I always want to be in a dominant position with more ways to win than to lose such as: the point is a 6 or 8; I place Don't/O of $30 and play the hard way for $15. I now have 7 ways to win and four ways to lose, and BTW sometimes losing happens, but a $45 loss is recoverable.

One other thing, since 99.8% of shooters 7 out, I bring down my bets during a hand at times or reduce them when pressing after any given point conversion. I do not win big $$$, but I win, and those "small" wins add up. My last eight sessions each lasted between 2 - 3 hours+ and I lost only once for a whopping $140 otherwise I am up a nice sum.

falcon

p.s. Like the DI's, I practice everyday on my computer using SIM craps, not for simulations of millions of rolls, but on a point by point, roll by roll basis, you know, the short term play.

Nice to have you back on the forum, Falcon. Looking forward to some stimulating conversation.

Heavy wrote:Nice to have you back on the forum, Falcon. Looking forward to some stimulating conversation.

Thanks, Heavy, but I need to ask you a question. The MP has written lots of stuff and some of it, IMHO, is really good and some of it was in direct responses to my questions of him. Can I paraphrase some of it asking for his confirmation and/or can I ask him to reproduce certain specifics in order for me to make a point or two? I want to operate within your parameters w/o jeopardizing rules or plagarizing copyrighted stuff.

falcon