Going with the Flow
Posted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:31 am
I had a Tom Sawyer/Huck Finn kind of childhood. I grew up near the Caddo River in Arkansas. From my home, it was about a half-mile to the river if you started walking south house. It was also about a half mile to the river if you walked east from my front door. Between those points there was about two miles of river, snaking in a big bend with plenty of creeks and sloughs along the way. During the summertime I'd wade-fish those two miles of river almost every day. I'd walk down to the river and wade in where the river bridge crossed Highway 67 - these were pre-Interstate 30 days - and follow the stream around the bend down to an old cane break and creek near my home. Then I'd hike it out through a corn field and across a cattle pasture, dodging angry cows and cow patty landmines along the way. Every day I'd take the same route, avoiding the known holes, snags, and snake pits along the way. Never once did I walk across the pasture to the river and fish my way upstream. Why? Because it was too much work. Seriously. Who wants to go against the flow - even in a slow moving river - when you can fish the same water while walking downstream? It just doesn't make a lot of sense.
Craps is pretty much the same way. Of course, craps doesn't flow the same way all the time. Before walking up and tossing a bunch of action out, you really should take time to consider which way the game is flowing. You do that by charting for the current trend.
Charting is one of those subjects that always draws fire from those who approach the game from a mathematical point of view. My answer to that is simple. If charting means a player delays entry into disadvantage play - betting on every shooter that touches the dice - then it must be a good thing. After all, how many times have you seen a player rush up to a table, buy in for a thousand dollars or more, and immediately toss half his bankroll on the layout, only to lose it on the next toss of the dice? I guess I’ve seen this thousands of times through the years, but it still baffles me. These players don’t seem to care what they bet on or how well the game is going. They simply want to get in on the action. They demonstrate a clear lack of self-control and discipline - two elements you absolutely must have to survive at the game
I think most veteran players engage in some sort of table or shooter charting – either on a conscious or subconscious level. They understand that craps is a game of independent trials, and that what happened on the last roll has nothing to do with what happens on the next one. But they also understand that craps is a game of streaks and trends. In its simplest form charting is nothing more than watching the game for a while to see what the current trend is.
A lot of guys I know do a simple count of sevens to determine how they're going to play. They watch 18 - 30 decisions, making not of how many sevens rolled. If the table produces six sevens in eighteen rolls - how would you bet it? Think about it.
Watch long enough and you will see periods of quick seven outs followed by brief periods of points made. In between there will be long periods of choppiness where no trend is evident. But I believe charting is useful even on those occasions. A particular number may be repeating with higher than normal frequency, or the hardways may be showing up more than usual. If so, perhaps the trend will continue. Again, if nothing else, charting enforces discipline and slows entry into the game. That, in and of itself, can save the player money over the long run.
So how do you chart? First, it is a good idea to make up your mind what strategy you are going to play before entering the casino. Then, when you walk in the door you can find a table that is trending the way you want to bet. Let’s say you want to play the right way - perhaps with a Pass Line bet, free odds, and place bets on the six and eight.
Naturally, you would like to find a hot table, but there are varying degrees of "hot.” You may watch a shooter establish a point, then throw twenty-three numbers before sevening out. But if none of the numbers thrown were the six or eight you would have lost money on the roll. The numbers did not roll according to your pre-determined strategy of play.
Once you begin to chart the table take a look around at the other player’s action. Are there a lot of place bets on the layout? Which box numbers are seeing the most action? Which players have the most chips in their rack? How are they betting? All of these things are keys to the current trend.
If you plan to bet “right way” it is a good idea to chart until a player makes a pass. There is no point in playing the pass line if everyone is sevening out without making a point. Likewise, if you plan to place the six and eight it’s a good idea to chart until the shooter demonstrates that he can throw a six or an eight. Find at least two consecutive positive signs before entering the game. And then remember the old adage; “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”
As the dice move around the table it is a good idea to chart the individual players as well. There are certain signs to look for when charting shooters. Does he set the dice and toss them with care or does he just "feed the chickens." If you believe that some players can influence the outcome of the dice with practice, look for those types of shooters.
Another good shooter sign is when the player makes hop bets on a frequent basis and hits the point he's hopping. This is a sure sign of a skilled shooter, and if he acts surprised when it occurs it is even better. He knows he is good and is just working on his act.
Did the shooter make a pass last time out? The first step to being a proven shooter is to make a pass. If he goes point - pass - so much the better. Even random rollers catch incredibly hot streaks. By charting shooters you can position yourself to take advantage of their streaks.
What if a shooter repeatedly goes point-seven? You have two options on these shooters. Either go with the trend and bet the Don’t Pass next time he shoots, or don’t bet at all. You want to chart for the bad shooters as well as the good ones.
Does the shooter have a particular number he repeats with higher than normal frequency? Often times the shooter is totally unaware of these tendencies. Yet definite signatures can develop whether they are aware of them or not. I once charted a shooter who threw an abnormal number of twelves over the period of about two hours. When the dice got back to him for his last roll of the evening I threw out a $5 world bet plus a $2 high low bet on his come out roll. Sure enough, he threw the twelve. In fact, he threw five twelves in a row, followed by an eleven and another twelve. As I have pressed my bets up on every hit, I won close to $1,500 before he ever established a point. I was the only player at the table who had any action on the twelve in this entire series. I just wished I'd parlayed the first hit instead of pressing it.
Charting the tables and the shooters is really about going with the flow and gaining some measure of control. Control of your emotions. Control of your bankroll. Control over when and why you play the game. Is it fun? Not particularly. But neither is losing.
Craps is pretty much the same way. Of course, craps doesn't flow the same way all the time. Before walking up and tossing a bunch of action out, you really should take time to consider which way the game is flowing. You do that by charting for the current trend.
Charting is one of those subjects that always draws fire from those who approach the game from a mathematical point of view. My answer to that is simple. If charting means a player delays entry into disadvantage play - betting on every shooter that touches the dice - then it must be a good thing. After all, how many times have you seen a player rush up to a table, buy in for a thousand dollars or more, and immediately toss half his bankroll on the layout, only to lose it on the next toss of the dice? I guess I’ve seen this thousands of times through the years, but it still baffles me. These players don’t seem to care what they bet on or how well the game is going. They simply want to get in on the action. They demonstrate a clear lack of self-control and discipline - two elements you absolutely must have to survive at the game
I think most veteran players engage in some sort of table or shooter charting – either on a conscious or subconscious level. They understand that craps is a game of independent trials, and that what happened on the last roll has nothing to do with what happens on the next one. But they also understand that craps is a game of streaks and trends. In its simplest form charting is nothing more than watching the game for a while to see what the current trend is.
A lot of guys I know do a simple count of sevens to determine how they're going to play. They watch 18 - 30 decisions, making not of how many sevens rolled. If the table produces six sevens in eighteen rolls - how would you bet it? Think about it.
Watch long enough and you will see periods of quick seven outs followed by brief periods of points made. In between there will be long periods of choppiness where no trend is evident. But I believe charting is useful even on those occasions. A particular number may be repeating with higher than normal frequency, or the hardways may be showing up more than usual. If so, perhaps the trend will continue. Again, if nothing else, charting enforces discipline and slows entry into the game. That, in and of itself, can save the player money over the long run.
So how do you chart? First, it is a good idea to make up your mind what strategy you are going to play before entering the casino. Then, when you walk in the door you can find a table that is trending the way you want to bet. Let’s say you want to play the right way - perhaps with a Pass Line bet, free odds, and place bets on the six and eight.
Naturally, you would like to find a hot table, but there are varying degrees of "hot.” You may watch a shooter establish a point, then throw twenty-three numbers before sevening out. But if none of the numbers thrown were the six or eight you would have lost money on the roll. The numbers did not roll according to your pre-determined strategy of play.
Once you begin to chart the table take a look around at the other player’s action. Are there a lot of place bets on the layout? Which box numbers are seeing the most action? Which players have the most chips in their rack? How are they betting? All of these things are keys to the current trend.
If you plan to bet “right way” it is a good idea to chart until a player makes a pass. There is no point in playing the pass line if everyone is sevening out without making a point. Likewise, if you plan to place the six and eight it’s a good idea to chart until the shooter demonstrates that he can throw a six or an eight. Find at least two consecutive positive signs before entering the game. And then remember the old adage; “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”
As the dice move around the table it is a good idea to chart the individual players as well. There are certain signs to look for when charting shooters. Does he set the dice and toss them with care or does he just "feed the chickens." If you believe that some players can influence the outcome of the dice with practice, look for those types of shooters.
Another good shooter sign is when the player makes hop bets on a frequent basis and hits the point he's hopping. This is a sure sign of a skilled shooter, and if he acts surprised when it occurs it is even better. He knows he is good and is just working on his act.
Did the shooter make a pass last time out? The first step to being a proven shooter is to make a pass. If he goes point - pass - so much the better. Even random rollers catch incredibly hot streaks. By charting shooters you can position yourself to take advantage of their streaks.
What if a shooter repeatedly goes point-seven? You have two options on these shooters. Either go with the trend and bet the Don’t Pass next time he shoots, or don’t bet at all. You want to chart for the bad shooters as well as the good ones.
Does the shooter have a particular number he repeats with higher than normal frequency? Often times the shooter is totally unaware of these tendencies. Yet definite signatures can develop whether they are aware of them or not. I once charted a shooter who threw an abnormal number of twelves over the period of about two hours. When the dice got back to him for his last roll of the evening I threw out a $5 world bet plus a $2 high low bet on his come out roll. Sure enough, he threw the twelve. In fact, he threw five twelves in a row, followed by an eleven and another twelve. As I have pressed my bets up on every hit, I won close to $1,500 before he ever established a point. I was the only player at the table who had any action on the twelve in this entire series. I just wished I'd parlayed the first hit instead of pressing it.
Charting the tables and the shooters is really about going with the flow and gaining some measure of control. Control of your emotions. Control of your bankroll. Control over when and why you play the game. Is it fun? Not particularly. But neither is losing.