Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I started using a new betting pattern today. (see I didn't say system)

I was looking for something that would allow me to get in on people who set, seem to control their throws, but who I was not comfortable dropping a huge bet/regression on.
I put $5 on the PL then after point I do 2 Come bets. No odds on any of them.
Once the shooter hits one of my comes I put another up.
If they hit another come or PL and look to be hitting box numbers well then I keep putting come bets up working to fill the board.
As each come bet is now hit the new one goes up and I press the odd by $5 from 0-5-10-15-20-25 for that come bet.
Same goes for the PL, as the shooter makes the point I press the odds behind 0-5-10-15-20-25.

This, in my mind, allows me to go with a shooter with minimum at risk in the beginning placing/pressing odds only with my winnings to reduce the hit on my BR.

I know people say better chips in the tray better than on the table but it is my belief (and this is just how I look at my BR) that since I go into the casino knowing I may lose a portion of my BR anything above my buy-in is gravy and I am trying to make the most of my time there without risking a lot of my BR at one time.

Any thoughts on what I am describing?

Inspector.

I don't dislike it. LOL. Actually, I like the idea of come bets having to earn the right to get odds on them by repeating a time or two. n that sense it is not unlike the old Heatseeker we talk about from time to time. Another way to get where you're going might be to place the six and eight, put five in the come and five in the field. If the field rolls use it to place one of the uncovered numbers (perhaps the sister of what just rolled). Hell, don't get me started thinking about spin-offs of different betting strategies or I'll be up all night.

Yeah, the Hot Roll Finder was actually by "Mr. C," but Jerry Patterson marketed it heavily.

I gave it another try today and I ended up with PL w/max odds as well as 5 come bets a few with max odds and a couple still progressing.
By that point in the roll though the people with place bets pressed were taking in more than I was per roll.
I am thinking that once I hit max odds I could have increased the size of the come bet to allow for larger odds on rolls that seem to go on.

Inspector

Maybe you could try a Come to Place and then Place to Come if the roll keeps progressing. Or just do the Come to Place to pay for the rent on the Place number and then up a unit or make it look like from there. Hopefully those Come bets will help you find the hot repeat numbers for that hand and then you can progress them. I have used this and liked it but of course I have had some hands where it didn't work well at all.

I think in hind sight on a long roll we can always figure out a way we could have made more money but then it is hind sight. If the betting pattern is working for you then be happy with the money you made with it and remember the times when you saved money on short rolls by using it!

I understand the due theory fallacy, but come bets never felt 'safe' to me. It always seems that you wait till a shooter gets a point, maybe wait for a box, then you place your bet hoping another box number will hit twice so you could get paid once... all while knowing the 7 is coming eventually. It feels to me that while you are waiting the 6 or 8 hits once which could have been a payoff, yet you are hoping for that box number to come around AGAIN

Dave73 wrote:I understand the due theory fallacy, but come bets never felt 'safe' to me. It always seems that you wait till a shooter gets a point, maybe wait for a box, then you place your bet hoping another box number will hit twice so you could get paid once... all while knowing the 7 is coming eventually. It feels to me that while you are waiting the 6 or 8 hits once which could have been a payoff, yet you are hoping for that box number to come around AGAIN

That is why I only do the PL and 2 come bets. I don't wait for a box number to be hit after the point is made before I make my first come bet as the CB benefits from the 7 protecting the PL bet. That is also the reason I don't put odds on my CB or PL bet until the shooter makes each bet. Once I have 2 CB out then I wait till the shooter makes one of my 3 bets then if they hit the PL I place odds on the new PL. If they make one of my CB then I place a new CB and continue to make CB pressing the odds on each CB that is hit.

If I have a CB on the 5 and the shooter throws a 5 I get paid even money on the blank CB. The new CB would travel to the 5 and I put up 1 unit of odds on it. If the shooter throws another 5 I get paid $12 (assuming $5 table), my new CB travels to the 5 and I put up $10 odds. This continues until I max out the odds.

On short rolls I lose a minimum amount, say $15 for the PL and 2 CB.

TBH I end up being more fearful of the 2,3 or 12 while I have a CB waiting which I would always have once the shooter shows they can throw "well"

Inspector.

Hello Inspector,

I am reading Sharpshooter's book (after having read MP's) and he made a good point regarding Come Bets on DI.

The Come Bet, like the Pass Line bet, main advantage is from it's own come-out portion. With a DI, they usually are not shooting for the seven after the Puck is on, so you lose this advantage. If anything, depending on their dice set, the Come Bet will win automatically with only an Eleven and lose to any craps. So you now have 2 ways to win vs 4 ways to lose. Now, once your come bet establishes it's own point, you are still at a disadvantage unless you go full odds. Why get paid 1:1 where you have a less than 50% of winning with a bare-back come bet?

So instead of making a come bet, wait to see what the roll is then place that number. You'll get paid better than a flat come bet, and if see anything that disturbs the shooter, or their landing zone is now "occupied", you can always turn your bets off or take them down.

Or you could try the Dice Doctors converted come bet.When a number rolls (5) place it for $5 which would have been your come bet plus $5 which would have been your odds.But now you have a bet you can take down or turn off.
Just another option to think about.

LOL. This thread is certainly taking some interesting turns. Little Joe - I'm not sure if that's the same Mr. C or not. I believe Mr. C was living in Biloxi for a time and for the most part just selling betting systems for craps and (perhaps) roulette. Man, that's been awhile. Patterson never marketed any of my stuff, although we did do a little cross promotion from time to time. Glad to see Michael posted about the converted come bet - a Dice Doctor play that I was about to chime in on.

Although I have not actually put butt in chair in front of computer and written the article yet, I have a title in mind for an article for this weekend's newsletter that will play very well to this thread. The working title is When Puts Come to Shove, and it will likely contain a comparison of place betting, come betting, and come betting's forgotten cousin - put betting. Meanwhile, let me pose a few questions for you guys who are new to the game:

You're standing at the table in Heavy's Perfect World Casino. It's a $5 game that offers up to 10X odds on Pass, Come, Don't Pass, and Don't Come bets. Commissions on Buy Bets are collected AFTER the decision. Bets on the five and nine are automatically "bought" at the $20 level. You can buy the four or ten for $30 and still pay only $1 commission. Assuming this is a random game and you can only make one $30 bet - which of the above wagers will you make and why?

Give this some statistical thought before you jump in and answer off the cuff. Once you have THAT answer - part two: Given the choice of making the wager you selected above - or a FLAT $30 bet on the Pass or Don't Pass - which bet would you choose?

And don't expect me to do the math on this and give you the statistics. I'll leave that to someone who didn't ingest as many pharmaceuticals as I did back in the sixties. Let's get a little discussion going - then perhaps one of our more numerically inclined alums will chime in.

Thoughts?

Queue the Jeopardy music . . .

IAssuming I had $30 to bet on a single bet,random roll. I'd want to at least double my money on the win, so lay bets are off, plus I'm a buck short for the 5/9 and $11 short on the 4/10. Could place the 6 or eight, it's the right amount, but all the money is on one number. Could do a 'wait for 3 no fields then bet the field' and have a decision on one roll. Is probably put it all on the PL or come and hope for a natural, then wait out out of not. I know the math says I'd be better with a $5 pl plus $25 in odds, but for a single bet you are at the mercy of Lady Luck more than EV, and I'd be happy with doubling my money.

You don't need the extra buck for buying 4, 5, 9, or 10 since the vig is paid on the win only.

Anyway, I'd put it all on DP or DC since it has the best chance of winning, disregarding that it is not the lowest house edge wager that could be made.

Anyway, I'd put it all on DP or DC since it has the best chance of winning, disregarding that it is not the lowest house edge wager that could be made.

LOL. Me too, but that answer would probably caused ripples over on the Wizard of Odd's site or on BJ21.

I will think out loud here since it is a perfect world casino:
On the line: 8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose
On the dark: 3ways to win, 8 ways to lose
By pass to CO:
place the 6 or 8: $30 wins $35
place the 5 or 9: $30 wins $42
Come bet to the 6 or 8 ($5) with $25 odds pays $35 ($5 + 30)
Come bet to the 5 or 9 ($5) with $25 odds pays $42 ($5 +36 + 1)
Uh, oh. Here comes the tricky part:
Place the 4 or 10 for $30 would pay $54
Buy the 4 or 10 for $30 would pay $59
Come bet to the 4 or 10 would pay $55
Think I'll take my $30 bucks to the slots. sia

I will think out loud here since it is a perfect world casino:
On the line: 8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose
On the dark: 3ways to win, 8 ways to lose

Yes, but this is not a one-roll game. Okay, it could be a two roll game - but it might last twenty or more rolls. Odds are the game will be decided within about five rolls, but who knows what numbers will roll? Hmmm. Statistically - we'll probably see a six or an eight. But that's not the lowest vig bet. Oh, man. Somebody's going to have to think about the math.

Now here's one for you. Do you want the lowest vig bet - or the bet most likely to win?

Is the additional win on the lower vig bet worth waiting for if - for example - that win is almost double what you'd win flat betting? Again, somebody needs to do the math.

Oh, the humanity . . .

Heavy wrote:
Now here's one for you. Do you want the lowest vig bet - or the bet most likely to win?

Is the additional win on the lower vig bet worth waiting for if - for example - that win is almost double what you'd win flat betting? Again, somebody needs to do the math.

Oh, the humanity . . .

This one is up to the goal of the bettor. If you just want a win, and you dont care how much it was then you could lay an outside number for a decent chance to win something. This doesnt work for me with a one bet mentality as Id want to double my money for that one bet.

If I had $30 worth of FREE PLAY from Heavy's Casino, Id do $22 Inside and let it ride. $5 on the PL and $3 for prop bets.

I will use my own roll data to answer your question. So let's assume that you are betting on me and I just have a pass line with odds and I'm trying to hit my point.

For a random shooter, the edge per roll on the come bet is 0.42%. But that's on average for a random shooter. You have to consider what is the edge per roll of a come bet when a shooter is trying to hit their number and using a hardway set.

For me, when I use a 4242 set, I evaluate edge for the initial roll of the come bet to have the entire edge on the first roll.

That means I consider a pass line or come bet to only have a house edge on the initial roll. After that I consider it a "free odds" bet .. a sort of gift or consolation prize for not winning on the first roll.

I know this will take time to understand my model but give it some though.

Consider a $90 pass line bet with a 1.41% edge per roll instead of 0.42% edge per roll. With this model (all of the house edge packed into the initial roll) you can consider the bet "resolved" even when a box number is rolled. The "resolution" for a box number is that you win a bet that you can't take down, otherwise it's a "free odds" bet. The only caveat is that the free bet you receive is worth 2/3rds as much for the four or the ten, 4/5th as much for the 5/9 and 10/11 as much for the 6/8.

So going back to the model, the initial roll of a $90 pass line has a 1.41% house edge. So the first roll you consider will cost you on a random shooter $1.27 (90 * 0.0141). Once you have a point established or assigned to a line/come bet, you have to consider it a loss of 33.33%, 20%, or 9.09% of your intial bet. If you consider it "resolved" always after the initial roll, it helps you model advantages a little bit.

The only trick is that you can't take down your partially resolved bet. You basically have a bet you're forced to keep.

If you do want to take it down and it's a lot of money, it just costs $1 per $20 value of the bet. You would lay the number for 33.33% more on the four or ten, 20% more on the five/nine, or roughly 10% more on the six/eight. But that's another topic.

Anyway, edge per roll on the line/come bet looking at packing the entire edge into the first roll, now you have a 1.41% edge per roll on the first roll of the line come bet and a "free" bet that is sort of "forced" as your "partial loss" if you roll a box number.

So the box numbers are losing rolls. But you don't lose the whole thing.

Alright, so moving on .. with that model, here's the edge per roll for my shot with a hardway set I would be shooting after the initial roll.

Transforming roll data to set 4242
Results for set 4242
Rolls to Seven ratio (RSR): 6.377 +6.29%
Passline/CO player edge (per initial roll): -2.73%
Don't Pass/CO player edge (per initial roll): +0.17%
# #/7% delta% #/roll%
2 -1.06% -0.3065% less
3 +3.29% +0.4462% more
4 +1.45% -0.0368% less
5 +1.77% +0.0098% more
6 +1.64% -0.1201% less
7 +0.00% -0.9856% less
8 +3.98% +0.8802% more
9 +2.24% +0.1863% more
10 +2.67% +0.3457% more
11 +0.54% -0.2010% less
12 -0.40% -0.2182% less

This shows that when I am trying to roll box numbers, the edge on the intial roll of a come bet is -2.73% instead of just -1.41% as it would be for an even distribution of numbers. So after a point is established, you are betting that I can repeat that number.

The long of the short of it is that to get the best result from a line bet or a come bet, you are better off with a random shooter on the initial roll than a controlled shooter trying to hit their point. And the penalty for betting a come bet when I am shooting my hard-eight set is high! That's just me. If you're curious why, if my point is eight, I'm going to be shooting 2.78% + 0.44% ace-deuces (13% more ace deuces than random). WATCH OUT!!! And I might not care that I'm hitting ace-deuce because my point is eight and I'm trying to hit a hard eight.

The bottom line is that while betting this way on a random shooter is pretty harmless, if you have a great shooter, they can really kill you rolling all those box numbers with too many come bets.

To generalize all of this, you need to look at a chart that has the house edge for a line/come bet for a given RSR.

rsr House edge one pass/come
6 -1.41%
7 -4.36%
8 -6.60%
9 -8.26%

Now these numbers reflect a controlled shot just on the initial roll. That same shooter is more likely to make up the negative edge on the first roll by having a positive edge on subsequent rolls.

But the point is that you are absolutely hedging that the shooter is going to roll a seven with each come bet. And if he doesn't you have lost a part of that bet.

But a reasonably good shooter that has a RSR of 6.2 or so is going to hurt you on the initial roll more than they can help you on the subsequent rolls. IE: you'd be better off doing thing strategy on a random shooter than a reasonably good controlled shooter.

I can look more into the details of how good the shooter need to be, but hopefully this sheds some light on the subject.

The thing you have to realize is that 1/3rd of all money given back on the line/come bet DEPENDS on sevens happening. If you roll NO SEVENS, the pass line and come bet has an extra 33.3% house edge!!!

16.66% sevens = (1/6)
6.31% set and make a 6 (5/36)*(5/11)
6.31% set and make a 8 (5/36)*(5/11)
5.55% yos (2/36)
4.00% set and make a 9 (4/36)*(4/10)
4.00% set and make a 5 (4/36)*(4/10)
2.78% set and make a 4 (3/36)*(3/9)
2.78% set and make a 10 (3/36)*(3/9)
===============

(1/6)+(5/36)*(5/11)+(5/36)*(5/11)+(2/36)+(4/36)*(4/10)+(4/36)*(4/10)+(3/36)*(3/9)+(3/36)*(3/9)

49.29292929% chance to win -- The biggest segment by far is rolling a seven -- that's 33% of all winning segments!

Not rolling any sevens at all means adding 33% to the house edge of 1.41% .. meaning that if it weren't for the sevens, the bet would only win 32.62% of the time! WORSE THAN THE FIELD at 44.44% chance of winning.

It may be worthwhile to consider that 30% of all rolls on average are comeout rolls, and 16.66% of all rolls are sevens.

That means that .16666 * .30 = 0.0498 --
1/.0498 is about 20. So one out of every 20 rolls on the craps table is a winner seven even without come bets for a random shooter.

On another forum someone asked how often do you see a PSO (a two roll and done type of shot).

The chance of rolling a box number on your first roll is 24/36. The chance of rolling a seven after that is 1/6.

So every time a new shooter gets the dice, the chance of rolling a PSO is 24/(36*6) = 11.11%. On average, this happens once for every 9 shooters. The chance of rolling a yo or eleven on the first roll is actually only twice as likely at 22.22%.

This doesn't seem bad, but the chance of making your point is only 40%.

Most people don't make their point, ya know. Not even the first one.

I don't know if any of this helps, but hopefully that's enough to chew on.

Still mulling about "KnowNothing" saying that I'm the one negative on the forum.

Still mulling about "KnowNothing" saying that I'm the one negative on the forum.

Excellent answer up to this point. Come on guys, give it a rest.