Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I think I am quickly becoming one of those players who thinks the only way to have any success in this game is to be a DP player. The obvious downside is the come out roll will sometimes crush you. I've tried this recently and just caught the table at the worst possible time as the shooter throws two or three naturals to start the hand and I'm already way behind (for the hand) before a point is even established.

To avoid getting killed on the come out roll hoping the 7's seemed like a good idea (I'll live with the losses on the 11 because that should be offset by the 2 &3), but if I'm doing the math right it would be better to just live with the losses on the come out naturals.

For every 36 rolls the 7 will take my bet 6 times for a loss of $60 (assuming $10 bets to make it easy) and hoping the 7's each time will cost me $108 over 36 rolls with a return of $96 minus the $60 for the line bets or a loss of $72 when all is said and done. "Protecting" my line bet with a hop 7 bet is costing me $12 per 36 rolls, correct?



What about the No 4 or 10 to protect the line bet. I actually liked this better as even if they knock you off with a 4/10 on the come out roll you are a 2-1 favorite to win at least some back with your line bet. So my math goes like this:

(Understand my local casino has a $40 minimum for the lay 4 or 10 bet and I don't know if all casinos are like that, but we'll use whatever number we need to protect our line bet for purposes of this discussion)

6 times I would lose my line bet with no protection via a 7 on the come out for -$60
3 times I would lose my $20 "No 4" bet for -$60 and the 6 times it protects me I have to pay the vig so -$66 total there.

How about splitting the "No 4" bet to a "No 4 or 10" bet? $10 each number:
I lose $10 6 times for -$60 and the 6 times it protects me I pay the vig so again -$66.




OK, I said all that to come to the conclusion that protecting your line bet is just a bad idea and you should suck it up and live with the front-line losses. Is my perspective/math correct?

Yep. If you go by the math of the game, over the long run all hedge bets end up costing you more than if you'd just gone bare. Here are a couple of options that don't change the math of the game, but might appeal to you more.

1. Play the DC instead of the DP. That will avoid the Come Out naturals thrown by guys who are actually trying to toss sevens and elevens on the Come Out. Mathematically, you'll still lose be exposed to the same edge. But playing the DC "feels" better to a lot of folks.

2. In order to limit your losses and avoid chasing, limit yourself to one Come Out loss per shooter. If a guy tosses a seven or eleven on the Come Out - do not bet on him again this turn of the dice.

3. Consider John Patrick's riccochet play. Wait for the point to be established, then lay against the point for one roll while you establish a Don't Come bet. The vig doesn't change, but on those occasions when you lose it doesn't hurt quite as bad, because you don't lose $41 every time. Sometimes you'll lose $31 or $25.

4. If you are a single Don't bet per shooter player and like to have at least $25 per shooter at risk - break it down into two bets - a $15 DP and a $10 DC. The $15 DP provides a natural hedge against the seven for the $10 DC.

Again, none of this stuff changes the math of the game. However, some of it will effect short term bankroll volatility and that's a good thing.

I sort of like a doey/don't. The CO is a wash but amounts to the same thing as just laying the point in sense. If you do not like the 6/8 for a point when playing the don'ts, take the odds, on the others, lay the odds.
In this play, I start with single odds, and as the funds gather, then increase the odds. You will neither win nor lose much but you have continual action.

Darkside play can be profitable....at times...just like any other play. H's # 2 is good. However, your experience shows a great profit potential if you can get by the comeouts. Many times you will get a couple of naturals on the comeout and then a point is established and the shooter 7's out immeidately or within a couple of rolls. Darksiders and rightsiders lose.

If this is happening try laying a number not the 4 or 10. You mention $40 lay at your casino. I like $24 no 6 or 8 with $1 vig. I'd rather lose $25 than $41. Both get paid $20 and down. If 11's are popping at times besides the 7's, add a $1 or $2 Yo as well. No, I am not suggesting this as an everyday, all day play. I am suggesting this when the comeouts are killing your DP.

If naturals are not flying, do not hedge.

As to hopping the red, I like that play when I have a DP, with odds established and I "feel" the 7 is coming. Many of the teachers here just rolled their eyes at that comment, but I think there is some merit. Ask H how many times he turns his bets off after a dice down call or a distraction to the shooter? I do informally keep track of the rolls of shooters and sometimes see that 7's are popping on the 5th or 6th roll (as the odds say they should). When I feel this, I will toss $10 to the stick for hoppers on the red for $9 for me and a $1 big red for the dealers. I love bonus cash.
You might even leave the bet up and catch a comeout 7 or two by the next shooter.

Good Luck

PS: One last thing. You have to discipline yourself. Sometimes tables get "hot" or "warm". Pass line winners are regularly showing. Darksidrs need to walk, no run, from that table. Or transition. Heavy's heatseeker is good for that. Do not fight the trend. It will win.

I only hop the sevens when I'm playing $25 or more on the DP - and if it hits I parlay at least once - and probably twice - while laying off additional Don't bets until the hops are settled. Not mathematically sound but it can be fun.

I never hedge anything on a craps table. In my opinion , hedging anything, makes what you are trying to hedge, worse. I only make DP wagers.

atgame7,

I just live with losing to naturals and sometimes they are session killers. I almost had a session killer yesterday at HS. I played for 2 hours and 45 minutes , playing the Dylan-acchi and was killed by comeout naturals . In the Dylan-acchi , I parlay wins when I am behind and I never won any one of the first three bets in the series which was--20 /20/ 20 25 35 45 60 80 110. I only lose one bet per shooter so I was standing with no bet on the table for most of the session . In the whole 2 hours and 45 minutes of play, I only won four parlays. I was very, very happy leaving the table with a $60 win.

The dealers and the box were all feeling sorry for me since I seemed to be losing every bet at the table, then were amazed when I colored up with a modest win.

I just never panicked , even when I was down to my next to last series wager which was $80 and after a winner , I parlayed it to $160 and when that parlayed won , I yelled, "COWTIPPIN"!!!!

Of course, the next session can be a complete stop-loss loser, which would be $415. (Although now that my bankroll is just over $12,000, my next session will have a stop loss of $540 , since I shall begin the first three wagers at $25).

Just a note: I began going to casinos 13 years ago this month.

Dylanfreake wrote: I just live with losing to naturals and sometimes they are session killers. I almost had a session killer yesterday at HS. I played for 2 hours and 45 minutes , playing the Dylan-acchi and was killed by comeout naturals

A quick search of the forum didn't turn up anything on this. Would you mind elaborating?

I liked the $10-$5-$10 DC approach. Psychologically it was better as a 7 on the second DC resulted in a win as opposed to a wash with flat $10-$10-$10 betting.

Playing a random prop bet for amusement aside, I don't like hedge bets at all. It seems there is money moving around but nothing being profitable

AtGame7 wrote:

Dylanfreake wrote: I just live with losing to naturals and sometimes they are session killers. I almost had a session killer yesterday at HS. I played for 2 hours and 45 minutes , playing the Dylan-acchi and was killed by comeout naturals

A quick search of the forum didn't turn up anything on this. Would you mind elaborating?

DF usually doesn't hyphenate it - here you go -> search.php?keywords=dylanacci&terms=all ... mit=Search