Ride the trend or buck the trend?

[Craps75]

We all see trends develop at the craps table. Sometimes we don't realize it untill after its over. If you do notice a trend developing do you bet with the trend hoping it continues or against the trend hoping it will end?

For example lets say there have been 10 rolls go by without a field number rolled. Do you bet the field after the tenth roll or do you place the 6,8,and 5, hoping to go with the trend?

I tend to bet against the trend myself. If I'm at a table where there have been no field numbers rolled, I'll start betting the field most of the time. If a RR has made three points in a row I'll be on the don't for his fourth come out. I've both won and lost betting this way, but more times than not I'll go against the trend. I know a roll isn't going to last forever and the trend can't go on indefinitely. I'm looking to catch the trend as it changes. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

How do you play trends and what's your reason behind it?

[heavy]

I ALWAYS follow the trend - although I may be playing a trend other players at the table won't even recognize.

Why follow the trend? Because IMHO there's less chance of getting whipsawed. Going against the trend is essentially going with a due-number theory, and that theory is pretty much BS.

Take that hand I tossed at Binions a few years back. Twenty-three sixes. No eights. Somewhere around the eighteenth or nineteenth six I told the dealer to take down my $12 eight and use it to press the eight. The number was not paying its rent.

Way back around 2006 I was at the old Casino Magic on Bossier City (now Boomtown) where a guy had one around $40K hopping the sevens. On every shooter he'd start a hop sevens negative progression. He had a 3X5 card he was referring to for the next bet amount. Well, to make a long story short - over the course of about a half-hour hand he blew through the entire $40K, hit the table limit, and gone bust. I can still hear him saying to himself "the seven has GOT to come." In craps - there is not such thing as "got to."

[freak]

I'd rather hope for something I can see happening to continue versus something I can't see happening to start. Trends are the best way to make big money in this game that I can see. I don't know why numbers tend to repeat but they do. Get onboard and ride it while it lasts. Besides, if you bet against the current trend that means you are "chasing" the opposite of whatever just won. Flipflopping back and fourth could be a trend I suppose. And I have gotten in trouble switching from positive to negative after 3 PSOs only to have the point hit immediately and knock me off. I think so much of this game is mental. And I've learned I'm just more mentally satisfied if I follow the trend. If I follow the trend and I lose I say "Oh well, I tried. All good things come to an end." If I buck the trend and lose I say "What was I thinking? The 6 & 8 have rolled 8 times...why would I think the field is due? Place the dang 6&8!" Per Heavy's advise here I have also started taking down numbers that don't hit. Several times the 5 or 9 seem to disappear in a hand. Since we write the numbers down missing numbers are easy to confirm if we notice a placed bet unpressed on a nice hand. Many times now I've taken it down, got a few more hits on the trending numbers then sevened out. It was $10 saved since I noticed it wasn't earning it's keep. It doesn't always work that way but when it does it satisfies my bankroll and my mental state.

[Craps75]

Thanks for the comment Heavy!! I've been whipsawed a few times going against the trend. I really think I need to change my thinking on that. Lately I've been tossing a lot of fours in my practice sessions. I've been taking what I would spread across the board and placing it just on the four. I gues you could say that's following the trend. I do believe that a accomplished DI can certainly string off a run of numbers back to back. All though sixes and no eights would have been something to see for sure.

Heavy, do you chart a table in normal play looking for a trend, or have you played long enough you just recognize them?

Freak, I hear what your saying about betting on numbers that have won vs waiting on something to change. Never really thought about it that way I don't guess.

I do consider myself a pretty disciplined player. I don't flip back and forth from one number to the next anymore. If I set out to play the dark side, I'm seldom tempted to switch over to the right side.

I'm going to try to track as many rolls as I can this next trip and see if I can do a better job at recognizing trends. Thanks for the comments!!

[freak]

There is one thing I need to learn not to do though, and that is make a late move. This past weekend I was on the inside after I set a point of 6. I rolled a 10. Then another 10. OK. "Move my 9 to the 10" I told the dealer. Next roll 9. Next roll 7out. Very frustrating. Lost $ and killed my mental state. Next hand similar thing happened to L. She placed only the 6&8. Five rolled twice. She moved the 8 to the 5. Next roll 8. Next roll 7. So I think I need to learn to either add that repeating number early or just let it go. Two rolls does not make a trend. And a placed number hit after I just moved off really stings.

[Dave73]

What makes a trend then? One number repeating 3 times in a row? 3 out of 4 rolls the same?

It seems the situation Freak explained, moving money from one number to the next just to have the original wager hit, occurs more often than the 20 6s with no 8 rolls.

When do you ADD money to the table on a trend vs moving money from a non-winner?

[freak]

That's a good question. If, in either case, that off number had rolled and THEN it had come back to the hitting "trend" number I'd have felt brilliant. There was one time I was on the don't and the shooter started getting hot. He rolled 3 nines in a row. I said "I know how to stop that 9. Dealer give me a $10 nine." Next roll...9! Wow. Then ANOTHER 9. I'm a genius. Then he went on to hit 2 more points and lots more box numbers. And the 5 point fire bet which won us $250. That was a time I was glad I switched to follow the trend. I guess the answer is if the numbers keep hitting it's a trend. If they don't it's a potential trend that never fully developed and if you get spanked by a "almost" trend is stings.

[freak]

One more thing...Heavy's "see a horn bet a horn" is a ploy to catch a trend early. That happened this weekend I rolled aces but wasn't on it. I bet the field and a $2 hi/low. Next roll aces. Parlay the field and add a $5 aces high horn. Next roll 2 again. Three aces in a row! Next roll I took down the field but pressed more on the horn. Rolled a six. Lost a few bucks but got a nice win by catching that "trend" early. If we had moved on the first roll on our other hands we'd have caught at least one number before the 7out. Of course, always a woulda shoulda coulda in this game. No such thing as a "one size fits all" answer.

[Mad Professor]

How often can you expect a number to hit with a random-roller shooting the dice?

The accompanying chart shows the chances of none, one, or more hits on each number.

~The first column shows the expected occurrence-rate if each number (4 OR 10 for example) is bet individually.

~The second column shows the expected occurrence-rate for each grouped-pair (4 AND 10 for example) if bet together.

This chart shows for example, that if you Place-bet the 6 AND 8 together; your chances of collecting a paying-hit before a 7 is doubled, while your chances of not getting a paying-hit before the 7 is halved.

I'm not sure if this is helpful to the current discussion; but I thought I'd offer it just in case it is.



However, this chart also illustrates why your chances of collecting MULTIPLE randomly-rolled paying-hits is, ummm, problematic.

For example, your chances of collecting five (5) randomly-rolled paying-hits on the Place 6-&-8, average about once-every-45 hands.

Likewise, your chances of collecting eight (8) randomly-rolled paying-hits on the Place 5-&-9, average about once-every-130 hands.


MP

[freak]

Maybe so over the long haul. But in the short term there's almost always SOME kind of streak in process. We rolled 12 hands last night. 6 hands each. On two of those 12 hands the 6&8 paid 5 times:

7 - 6 - 8 - 2 - 6 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 7out

+151 for that hand

4 - 10 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 7out

+$124 for that hand

Another hand of "streak" interest last night:

7 - 7 - 5 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 9 - 4 - 8 - 5 - 7 - 3 - 5 - 8 - 7out

+$65 on that hand

I don't know exactly how I bet but RollTracker now allows me to enter starting and ending bankroll to at least see how I did on each hand.

Last hand of the night:

5 - 7out
lost $150 (and switched on the football game)

[freak]

One thing I wonder is what are the ODDS of the dice rolling EXACTLY like the odds say they will roll? How often to the actual hands line up with the statistical averages? Maybe you can look at some of the rolls I posted MP and tell me how often I have a hand that lines up with what the odds say SHOULD happen. I'm just going to guess that it's nearly as rare for a single hand to hit dead on to a statistical average as it is for an odd streak to occur.

[Dave73]

The odds are an oxymoron. They day what should happen over an infinite number of rolls, but of course you can't calculate an infinite number.
MY favorite craps saying: The math guys can yell you what should happen, not what will happen.

[Maddog]

There is a BIG difference in inferring what "SHOULD" happen, and indicating what event out of all possible events is the "Most Likely" (highest probability) to happen.

Probability indicates that the most likely number to occur on the next roll will be a 7. That does not mean the next result SHOULD be a 7.

But in this game, variance is king. Every bet we make we are betting on variance. Variance that the next result will be on one side or the other of the most likely event.

And of course what a DI does is attempt to influence the nature of the variance, or in other words adjust the probability of the "Most Likely" event to the point that variance swirls around a new probability point, which we hope increases favorable versions of variance manifestations.

[heavy]

Heavy, do you chart a table in normal play looking for a trend, or have you played long enough you just recognize them?

Yeah, this is going to be a "do as I say - not as I do" moment. I try to get a read on the table before buying in, but it's based mostly on the bets on the layout, observation of both player and dealer demeanor, and (if I know the pit people) asking how the table has been running. I mentally track players by description - red shirt - funny beard - bad tatts - here for the beer - hooters (sorry ladies) - wifebeater - Indiana Jones - etc. I remember who tossed a hand. Who did not. Who went PSO. I tend to follow the table trend - but also the shooter trend. If a guy catches a hand this time around the table I will bet with him next time around - even if the table is running kind of cold. But if he's gone PSO every time he tosses the dice - I usually bet the Don'ts. As far as physically writing down rolls - I teach that in the seminars (and will teach it next weekend in Tunica), but in the real world the tracking I do is either in my head or with chips in the back rack.

[Golfer]

The trend is your friend.

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!Irish white eye say "Go with the trend or do not bet at all"

[Craps75]

Seems like everyone is riding the trend. I appreciate all of the responses.

Is there any information on how you set up your chips to count the rolls? Are you just counting the overall number of rolls? I can see how that would work and have done it myself. Your not actually keeping a count of individual numbers with the chips are you?

[shunkaha]

Seems like everyone is riding the trend. I appreciate all of the responses.

Is there any information on how you set up your chips to count the rolls? Are you just counting the overall number of rolls? I can see how that would work and have done it myself. Your not actually keeping a count of individual numbers with the chips are you?

On the occasions I actually care to track and bet a shooter, I track the individual numbers... otherwise what's the point if I am not sure what I should bet. Setting it up is very easy, I don't care about non box numbers or the 7 obviously, I set up 6 white chips facing me laying in the rail. As a number hits I turn it facing the dealer, as it hits again I add a white chip, if it hits again I add another, if it hits again I add the fourth, on the fifth hit I replace the whites with a red. I've never charted a hand that extended into green but several 2 red multi white. Once the 7 out occurs I can then add each number as needed to know the roll total but I have individual numbers so that I know I should bet a 6 and 9 but the 8 and 5 didn't really do much, etc. I tend to keep a mental tab on what the shooter has previously rolled and bet accordingly. Usually this method doesn't require many chips but it will require several white [as many as 24 white and a few red]. Then too I track my roll based on what I made or lost setting up a mirror of my bets in the front rail [typically if I can on a table I use the inside portion of the rail to my right] my profits go in the back on the rail in front of me and I remove the appropriate chips for my mirrored bets. Once the front rail is empty I am break even and all profits from the hand go into either front or back chip rack [usually by denomination]. In that way I can tell instantly how much profit I made instead of guessing, same thing for losses, etc. If the table is empty and I care to I do both the roll tracking and the profit tracking on my hand.

[soxfan]

Craps is by nature a choppy game, so anti-streak play is best. Of course you can get whacked pretty hard in the short term, so you need a large bankroll, and the stones to keep pushing big bets out to back up yer play. It ain't rocket science baby, hey hey.

[Craps75]

Thanks for all the replies. I am understanding how this works now. Thanks a lot!!