Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

This past Sunday I was at two of my local casinos.
Depending on the shooter, and whether or not they seem to influence the dice, if they seem to be random rollers, I usually wait for the 5 count and then get in on the 5, 6, 8, and Field, and for the DI's, I usually do a Pass Line Bet, Odds, and 5, 6, 8, & Field.
I usually just play minimum bets, so if my Field wins, I'm getting money back, but if 5, 6, or 8 rolls, I'm only getting a couple of bucks and lose my Field. I noticed after some nice rolls, that when all was said I done, I wasn't up in profit that much especially when the shooter hits lots of 5, 6, & 8's.
I could double my buy in on the numbers, but I don't have a large bankroll, so several quick 7 outs will kill me. I could wait to start playing the field until I've got double money on the numbers, but that means while I'm waiting, if alot of 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12's roll, I'm missing out on winning money.

Is there a solution to this problem?

Uh, usually the best bet after reaching the "World Famous Five-Count" is a Don't Come bet.

The secret - it doesn't work so well.

I can see using it as a tool - but not sticking with it throughout a hand. For example, parlaying all field hits to place bet numbers until all of the numbers are covered - something like that. But the every-roll vig you face in the Field is too steep for the average bear to overcome IMHO.

The Iron Cross is a beat down because the 5,6&8, fairly common numbers only pay $2 when you have $22 at risk. Poor return on investment.

I saw a variation once that was working for the guy...mostly because he kept hitting the 8. Here's his play:

$20 five
$12 six
$12 eight hop, $4 on each eight
$12 field

If the five hits it replaces the field and 8 hop and $4 to the rack
If the six hits you win $14 and lose $12 field, $2 to the rack
If an easy 8 hits you win $60 and lose $20 - $8 on the non-hitting eights and $12 field
If a hard 8 hits you win $120 and lose $20 - $8 on the non-hitting eights and $12 field
If the field hits 3-4-9-10-11 you replace the eight hops
If the field hits 2-12 you replace the eight hops and $12 to the rack

He was doing very well because the eight was showing about every 3rd roll. Like most strategies they feel great when they work. What I do like about strategies like this is they self-fund a "power" number. If the power number hits it's fat city. If not it feels pretty dumb to have $56 exposure to keep making just a few bucks.

It would work great if the edge per roll were 0.20% or lower. As it is, it's not just the field, but the five edge that kills ya.

The best strategies that work really well is not just to simply avoid 6 outcomes (the seven) but to also hit a particular box number more frequently than the rest. IE: place a single number like the six OR the eight (not both).

Better still is buying only the four or buying only the ten.

Then just roll lots more than you would expect randomly for that specific number.

The key to winning is two-fold:

1) Reduce exposure
2) Win

It's easier to see when someone else does it, but if you expose too much money to a seven and you keep going back up after getting hit, it doesn't take that many sevens to really hit you in the gut!

If you want a better chance to win a smaller amount of money and you have the ability to stop once you have won that smaller amount of money, you are probably not the type to look at DI since by definition, DI requires lots and lots and lots of rolls in order to work.

These systems that try to work no matter what happens and work on a high percentage of the rolls, by definition, almost always fail in the long run .. even if you have a good shooter, trying to bet on everything simply makes it too hard to last long.

If you do want to get paid on every roll, let me recommend that you bet:

$25 four, $5 five, $5 field, $30 six, $30 eight $25 ten.

Forget the edge, but the cost per roll is

0.33% * $50 = $0.16
1.11% * $5 = $0.0555
2.78% * $5 = $0.139
0.46% * $60 = $0.24
==============
cost per roll is $0.5945 -- same amount as cost per roll for $141 worth of pass line and/or come bets.

2: $10
3: $5
4: $49+5 = $54
5: $2
6: $30
7: -$130
8: $30
9: $5
10: $49+5 = $54
11: $5
12: $15

Chance of winning is 5/6th or 83.33% (same as the Iron Cross)
Average win is
( 10 + 5*2 + 54*3 + 2*4 + 30*5 + 30*5 + 5*4 + 54*3 + 5*2 + 15 ) / ( 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 ) = 23.23
Average loss is -$130

Given that you can look at this as a one roll bet, the edge per roll is the cost per roll divided by what you take down on a win (on average).

$0.59 / ( 23.23 + 130 ) = 0.38504%

That's better than the don't pass with no odds, and you get paid 83.33% of the time.

The only way to really lower this edge per roll would be to reduce the amount on the six or the eight, but that only has a 0.46% edge per roll, so it would not help much. You could go to $50 on the four and $50 on the ten and lower the edge if you only pay a $2 vig on the win and/or lower the six and eight. But if it's just the feeling of having money passed to you that you need, just bet tiny amounts on the five and the field and bet $25 or $50 on the four and ten and make sure you have vig on the win, and this strategy will last much longer than any other Iron Cross or across strategy that puts more money on the field, the five, or the nine assuming you aren't heavy on the 5 and 9 and just want to get paid something to soothe your mind.

Good Morning Mycoalsmith.

First let me say that the only bet I used to make when I used to gamble on craps was the iron cross.
Don't gamble any more due to my bad health, bad eyesight.

The iron cross is the only way you can make $300 to $400 dollars in an hour or less.
Have to stop- can not keep my eyes open at this time, must go to bed and take a nap.

Will get back to you during the day.

JAIME.

jaime1943 wrote:Good Morning Mycoalsmith.

First let me say that the only bet I used to make when I used to gamble on craps was the iron cross.
Don't gamble any more due to my bad health, bad eyesight.

The iron cross is the only way you can make $300 to $400 dollars in an hour or less.
Have to stop- can not keep my eyes open at this time, must go to bed and take a nap.

Will get back to you during the day.

JAIME.

Jaime: If you bet $400 on the pass line, or the don't pass, (come or DC for that matter) you will have a better chance of making $400, and it usually takes just a few rolls to resolve (not an hour). I hate to correct you, but the edge per roll on an Iron Cross where you seek to win the same amount of money no matter what is thrown is a death spiral system. Even the best shooters will be defeated pretty darn frequently given enough throws of the dice.

The reason I gave my answer is for those who just like the mechanics of getting paid and want a lower edge per roll than the pass line or the don't pass line so that they can go through the motions of getting paid (EG: here's your $2 sir for your $100+ worth of money on the felt). It's not such a death spiral this way as if you had $30 on the five and $60 on the field. There's a bit of math up there, but just saying things that aren't true doesn't make them true. You need to learn this! You can't just believe stuff that's not true, can you, without destroying yourself for your false beliefs!

Hi Ahigh,

Yes it can be done, just because the numbers say it can not be done- it doesn't mean that it can't be done. I'll get back to you on your board today or tomorrow.

MYCOALSMITH, I did not forget you, wait for my post later on today.

Took a 6 hour nap.

JAIME.

jaime1943 wrote:Hi Ahigh,

Yes it can be done, just because the numbers say it can not be done- it doesn't mean that it can't be done. I'll get back to you on your board today or tomorrow.

MYCOALSMITH, I did not forget you, wait for my post later on today.

Took a 6 hour nap.

JAIME.

I don't know where you got "it can't be done" out of what I said. Look, I am saying compared to other strategies .. or it doesn't even matter, compare any strategy to another strategy, and figure out the edge per roll, and that will tell you how much that strategy sucks. Once you get to 1.00% edge per roll, I'm not saying "it can't be done" but I am saying "you would be [dull witted] to try to make big money beating it." Do it for small money or for fun? SURE GO FOR IT.

But don't bet the farm on a strategy that is 0.80% or 0.90% or 1.00% per rolls. Seriously!!! You might as well just play baccarat!!

Hi Irish,

Are you telling me that a shooter---with the right bank roll, and the ABLITY TO SHOOT field numbers 2-3-4-9-10-11-and 12 like me, when I use to gamble- don't gamble any more for health reasons, can't
win $3oo or more in one hour.

I'M talking about playing with green chips- and playing the don't pass line with a hedge on the come out. and other bets you can make with the winnings on the 5-6-and 8. been winning this way for the last 30 years. ask HEAVY IF YOU CAN WIN PLAYING THE FIELD.

Let me say that I only bet this way when I'M THE SHOOTER.
Also I say one hour-- their are days you can win that amount in 15 minutes. when you win that amount you must leave.

JAIME.

You can win playing the horn in the short run. Strategies don't make any difference from one another for a single visit, in general. Strategies should be evaluated for the usefulness to a controlled shooter by using the edge per roll to figure out the cost for a random shooter, then decide if your shooting has an edge per roll larger than the edge per roll of your strategy.

THEN you have to figure out how to best set the dice for your throw to match that strategy.

All of these things I am doing and have been doing. And at the end of the day, even when you do all of this, you can have 500 to 700 or even more rolls where you just break even instead of coming out ahead with ups and downs all over the place.

The trivial way that you present your questions leads me to believe that you have a very limited number of samples you are considering when thinking about things. If you are thinking of tens of millions of rolls, I apologize. If you are thinking of 1000 of your throws or even 3000 of your throws, just about any strategy has the possibility to win from just pure luck.

By 100,000 rolls, most strategies (and certainly the Iron Cross) are not going to survive that many throws on even the best shooters that I could personally imagine. And if they did last that long, I guaran-damn-tee-ya that buying just the four of buying just the ten would kick the damn pants off the Iron Cross for that same set of rolls with the right set.

Narrow targets and low edge, good shot, right set, and you're golden.

Wide target high edge and/or betting AGAINST a narrow land mine, that land mine will eventually bust your balls! Guaran-damn-teed! Just a matter of how long until!!

Hi mycoalsmith,

I Think we should throw the thread - The Iron Cross- maybe it doesn't work so well. back to MYCOALSMITH because we have hijack this thread from him. sorry about that.

JAIME.

I headed up to Seneca Allegany in Salamanca NY today, and while I started out with the Iron Cross, I changed my game around some today and waited until I either had my 5, 6, & 8 pressed up to double the minimum bet before I started playing the field, or I automatically doubled the minimum bet for 5, 6, or 8 and then started playing the field.
I had some good wins at the $5.00 table.
After taking a break and eating at the buffett, I headed back to the table. Couldn't do anything on the $5.00 table, so I saw the $10.00 table was open and went over there. At that point, I just played the 5, 6, & 8 and left the field alone. I had a nice roll and when all was said and done, I had a profit of $460.00 today.
I also looked at what I had thrown, and looking at my last roll, if I would have played the field, when I had 7'd out, I would have only had a $10.00 profit from the field only.
It seems for the most part - with most shooters, playing the field just doesn't make a profit, because those 5's, 6's, and 8's kill you. There seems to be a few shooters who do roll lots of field numbers - so if you can identify them by watching what they throw, you might be able to make some Field money on them.
So, I think in the future, I'll just forget about the field, unless I notice a shooter who throws lots of field numbers.
Live and learn.

Hi mycoalsmith.

This is how I used to bet the [ field/ Iron cross/ or what ever name anybody wants to call it.
I'M going to tell you in $5 dollar units-so I can make myself be understood.

But, you must do the match- because I used to bet $25 DOLLAR UNITS.
You will be making these bets only when you shoot. And when you learn to shoot field numbers.Which are the 2-3-4-9-10-11-and 12.

1]-Come out roll- Bet on the don't pass line $11 dollars--any seven $3 dollars--number 11--$1 dollar--six-six $1 dollar.
On the come out- you have $16 dollars on the line.
If on the come out you shoot the seven you will lose $1 dollar- and you shoot again, Why do you lose only $ 1 dollar- because you lose $16 dollars AND you win $ 15 dollars on the any seven bet.

You must make sure that you reset the same bets on the come out, because you lost one dollar.

Now, if you shoot the eleven on the come out- you lose $ 1 dollar- and you shoot again, why do you lose only $ 1 dollar- because you lose $ 16 dollars AND you win $ 15 dollars on the ELEVEN.

Again, you must make sure that you reset the same bets on the come out, because you lost one dollar

Now if you shoot the six-six you win $14 dollars, why do you win $14 dollars, Because you win $30 dollars when you shoot the six-six.

Again, you must reset the same bets on the come out.

Now lets look at what happens when you shoot the numbers one/one AND the numbers one/two.
If you shoot the number one/one on the come out you win $11 dollars AND lose $5 dollars.
Win 11- lose 5- plus $6 dollars and you reset your bets and shoot again.

If you shoot the number one/ two on the come out you win $11 dollars and you lose $5 dollars.
Again you win 11-lose 5-plus $6 dollars and you reset your bets and shoot again.

This is part one---Tomorrow I will post part two, because I can't keep my eyes open anymore- I AM going to sleep. JAIME.

The Umbrella or Iron Cross or ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE 7 by any of it's many names
is a ploy that has been around enough time to have grown long in the tooth,,,,

As a practical matter it works best when wagered for as few as one or two rolls of the dice..
Further when the return on a successfully tossed 5 ,Six or 8 is near the $ value wagered in
the FIELD , the spread between the $ wagered on the Field numbers may seem insignificant
compared to the RISK OF LOSS... Were the wager placer to place at risk
$5 on BOX NUMBER 5 ,$6 on Box # SIX , $6 on Box#8 and $5 in the FIELD ,the returns
on the FIVE SIX and EIGHT are indeed vastly diminished..
and there is danger to loss from THE SEVEN

One methodology that comes to mind is to HOP BET the BOX NUMBER FIVE(5)
Another is to wager LARGER AMOUNTS of $$$ on the 5 the SIX and THE EIGHT
with perhaps a significantly lesser $ wager placed in the FIELD.....
.
( perhaps divide the $ amount that would have been wagered on the BOX # 5
evenly with 50% wagered as "FIVE ON THE HOP" with the remainder in the FIELD )
.
Stay calm don't go nuts-eaux it is only a suggestion...food for thought..so to speak

I'll leave the precise dollar ( $ ) value(s) open for your thoughts and suggestions

Let us move on with our discussion........

At five ways to pitch out a 7 the approximately 17% occurrence is a weighty mound to PASS.

The dreaded Point Seven Out is the nemesis of the Umbrella and a number of other wager plans.

If the HAND exists beyond perhaps one or two rolls,the wager placer is well advised to
TAKE ALL BETS DOWN or at least REDUCE IN $$$$ THE WAGER(s) left on the CRAPS TABLE
or change the total wager by changing the parts making up the total wager
( STEEP REDUCTION ala Heavy)

May we consider making alterations to the precise bets that make up the IRON CROSS

M P I ask your indulgence ,PLEASE JUST TRYING TO EXPRESS A THOUGHT
The $204 Across with steep regression is a well thought out game plan

Were we to pull a switch up and / or around of the $204 Across

We could place all the BOX NUMBERS as prescribed and HOP the 5 with 1/2 the $ value
make a HORN WAGER with the other 1/2 $ value......

Still vulnerable to loss to an untimely SEVEN(7)

By my limited arithmetic you would lose ground ( not to speak of dollars)
making a BIG RED or SEVENS ON THE HOP wager..........

Should you complete the first two rolls of the dice sans a SEVEN OUT
.
and
.
reduce the $ at RISK , you have an opportunity to finish the session a winner...

How MUCH a $$$$$$$ WINNER is up to you and a balance of both
SKILL and some LUCK...I H M O

There may be other ways to say it....Please post your thoughts.....

My thoughts are Heavy,the Wizard , The M P and a few others can line out plans far better than I

Just me saying

W C

Hi Mycoalsmith,

[ PART TWO ] FROM JAIME TO MYCOALSMITH-SEP 22-2013.

You have had part one for one day now. That's enough time for you to understand the come out part of this betting system.

Now I'll give you [PART TWO ]. Once you have establish the come out number you will do the following.

[ 1 ]. you will bet $5 Dollars on the number 5.

[ 2 ].you will bet $6 dollars on the number 6.
[ 3 ].you will bet $6 dollars on the number 8.

[ 4 ].you will bet $5 dollars on the field.........

[ Now lets see what happens when you establish the numbers on the come out and you make them. ]
If you make the 5 you lose $21 dollars and win 7 dollars--- lets do the match on this.
$21 dollars minus $7 dollars is $ 14 dollars-if you make the number 5 you lose $ 14 dollars. that's o.k

The same thing will happen when you make the numbers 5-6-or 8. that's o.k.

Now lets do the math when you seven out.
You will lose $27 dollars AND you will win $ 11 dollars.
$27 dollars minus $11 dollars is $16 dollars, you lose $16 dollars, that's o.k

I'm sorry to tell you that it has happened again--I can't keep my eyes open. So I'm going to bed.

Tomorrow I will tell you what to do when you win a field bet AND when you win on the numbers 5-6-and 8.
You will like tomorrows PART 3. JAIME.

.
Got another hypothetical question...

On a "typical casino craps table",what could be a reasonable number of players.
Choose a number between one and 12...

Were there to be some "TYPICAL NUMBER OF SHOOTERS" ,
what percentage could
we hypothesize would go P S O ?

What percentage would toss greater than three (3) rolls ?

Going around the craps table twice would take ( x) minutes hypothetically ???

If a hypothetical player wagered
$10 Hop the 5
$10 Field
$24 SIX
$24 Eight *

*( included as an after thought should the hypothetical player dilute his/her
potential winnings with either a BIG RED or 3-way Hop the SEVEN ????? )



on each and every shooter for either

One Roll

Two Rolls

Three Rolls

A) What would be a reasonable $ amount for his / her BUY in ?

B) What would be the EXPECTED VALUE of his/her winnings

C) What would be the the PROJECTED $ VALUE of his/her losses ?

We are talking hypothetically ,however in real time people face this type choice ..

To make it more fun may we compare the results with The M P $204 ................and perhaps
some one or two like wager plans............

How about suggestions on doing a walk off in the event of an untimely SEVEN OUT
at different junctures of twice around the "TYPICAL CRAPS TABLE"

Going P S O on the premier ( # 1 ) shooter would be by far more devastating than
shooter # 12........Still something for "war gaming" with consideration for

POINT OF ENTRY and that VERY CRUCIAL EXIT PLAN

Just the musings of an old guy

Wild Child

The IronCross/Umbrella/Anything-but-7 system is a really bad system. The HouseAdvantage (HA) is significant against the player.

However I will use the IC on occasion and have 2 or 3 different ways in which I utilize it to change up my betting. With my 2V, I will occasionally exhibit a bias towards 3 and 11’s and when I notice that trend I will sometimes utilize an IC strategy. Note that I never play a “pure” IC play, and I will never incorporate any IC strategy unless the table pays double/triple. A double/double table is just too much HA to overcome.

I’ve posted this one before, but I’ll re-post one of IC systems that I’ll play. This system is listed over on http://www.starchip.com/crapdata.htm and is called “The Hundred Dollar ho-down”. It is a Steep Regression Umbrella (IronCross/Anything-but-7) System. I’ve used this off and on and have found some success with it. I’ll give you the basic overview;

Initial buy-in should be at least $500. I tend to go $15 in the field instead of $12. Use the X6 or 2V sets to work this. Also, if you point-seven twice in the session, then it’s a wrap.

Wait for a point to be established and then place the 5 for $25, 6&8 for $30 each and a $15 field bet ($100...hence the name of the system).

After the first (or second or third) hit (hopefully not a 7) you regress as follows:

If a 5,6,8 hit:
~ Paid $35 less the $15 Field loser = Win $20
~ Regress to $17 on your 5,6,8 ($5-five, $6-six, $6-eight)
~ At this stage, $17 in action with $3 profit
~ Play any favorite inside number strategy from here on.

If a 4,9,10,11 hit:
~ Win $15
~ Regress to $6 on six and eight. Remove your $25-5 place bet.
~ At this stage, $12 in action and $3 profit.
~ Play any favorite 6&8 strategy from here on.

If a 2 or 12 hit:
~ Win $30 (assuming double on 2 and 12, better if triple 12)
~ Regress to $12 on your 6,8 ($12-six, $12-eight)
~ At this stage, $24 in action with $6 profit
~ Play any favorite 6&8 strategy from here on
~ OR… regress to $22 inside and play your favorite up and pull strategy

The big pitfall (and it is a deep one) is the point-seven. Any point-seven, especially early in the session will sink your battleship.

The strong point is that the next roll, no matter what number (other then the Sheriff), and your clear.

Oh, and what if your point is the 5, 6, or 8? Then put an equivalent bet as your odds (or max odds which ever comes first) For example if you have a $5 PL and 6 becomes the point, instead of Placing the 6 for $30, don’t place the 6 at all and put $25 odds behind your 6. DON’T FORGET to regress your odds when you regress your place action after the next roll.

I only use this when I’m shooting. I DO NOT use this on other shooters, because the point-seven is far too damaging. I feel I have enough control to not point-seven very often.

Don’t set up the IC until the point is established. If the point is 5, 6 or 8, then don’t place that number for the IC, instead, put 25 (20 for the 5) in odds behind you PL.

If the point is 4, 9, or 10, then no odds until some profit is in the rack, OR, play a different strategy.

Ok, after the IC is set up, the next roll will either be a money maker, or a wipe-out if the 7 shows. Let’s assume we avoid the seven. Next step is to regress. From here I use various strategies depending on what I’m rolling. Usually it is a press 1 unit on each number that hits to the 5 unit level, then just rake in (don’t get to this level very often!).

Another is to regress to $22 inside and then do an outside in power-press (ala Heavy) if the 5/9 hit, take it and the winnings and press up the 6 or 8 to $18, do a same bet, then press 1 or 2 unit on subsequent hits.

No--- I do not reload the IC on subsequent points, just continue with whatever strategy I’ve switched to for ongoing play.

This deep regression IC play is only for the initial come-out roll, and its sole purpose is to get the bets “paid”.