Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I'm not the math guy a lot of you are so I'll apologize in advance if the answer is obvious. What I do have is the ability to grind out a profit for hours and hours if need be. I'm a former poker player and the occasional 30+ hour session was not out of my wheelhouse.

I say that because I have been playing the dark side more and more recently and without keeping track roll by roll I can fairly confidently say the front line winner (or loser in my case) is what is keeping me from really coming out ahead (as I believe the case should probably be when playing the Don'ts). I moved to the Doey/Don't plan for a while and am having some success with that. I would be doing better if I stick to the advise about not letting any one shooter cost you more than two losses. I seem to chase the whole way to the end of every roll and a guy throwing nine points can really ruin your day.

In any event I am wondering if you could apply Oscar's Grind to the doey/don't strategy using the free odds as your base wager? Oscar's Grind was based on playing a game with as near to 50/50 odds as you can get, well, the free odds is the definition of that. The problem I can't wrap my head around is having to lay more than you win.

For example, I don't think it's uncommon to find yourself in the middle of a progression down 6 units and betting 4 units. Let's say the point is established as a five. I need to win 4 units so I would have to wager 6. A loss rockets me up to down 12 units betting 4. By playing odds and Oscar's Grind together am I risking going too deep too fast in the progression? I'm afraid I am.

The other side of that same scenario would be down 6 units betting 4 and again the point is established at 5 and this time I risk 4 units instead of trying to win 4 units (assuming $5 units I would have to actually risk $21) and if I win I only dig out 3 units instead of the 4 I was supposed to. Am I now needing too many wins to get through the progression?

I hope that second scenario is not too confusing. To make it easier let's say the point is four. I'm down 6 units betting four and the point is 10 so I bet four units, but only win two. I'm now down 4 units betting 5 when if I was playing OG on the DP line only I would be down 2 units betting 3. Am I asking for too many wins to complete the progression at this point?

Would you prefer to play OG in scenario one or two/three? Am I just out of line here altogether?

How much is your Total Gambling Bankroll?

At the casino that you play regularly, what is the maximum amount of odds you can lay?

Dylanfreake wrote:How much is your Total Gambling Bankroll?

At the casino that you play regularly, what is the maximum amount of odds you can lay?

I'm honestly not trying to be difficult but I tend to shy away from the first question as it just tends to lead to bickering and arguing, can I just say it's enough to handle $10 units and can be replenished if need be?

Local casino allows 10x odds.

I know Dylanfreake played the Oscar's Grind for a long time before deciding it was ultimately a loser for him - and I count him the resident Don't expert.

I have never been a fan of the Doey Don't. The reason is mostly mathematical - it does not reduce the house's edge. they still have a 1.41 percent advantage on the Pass and just a hair less on the Don't Pass. So essentially instead of paying a house edge on a single $10 bet (in a $10 game) you're paying the same vig on $20. Trust me. I've done the math many times.

I will tell you that I have tried a Free Odds Fibonacci progression on the odds - and I think the Fibo is stronger than the Oscar - and pretty much ran out of session bankroll before I could make it work.

Now, you mention that you don't like risking more to win less - which is something I hear a lot of Don't players say. For example, let's say you're laying $300 against the five to win $200 (less the juice). Now let's compare that to betting $320 across on the right side. Now let's have the five roll. You lose $300 on your Don't bet - but the $320 across guy only won $70. Compare that to the seven showing, where you win $200 and the right sider loses $320. Hmmm. So right siders do the same thing you're talking about all the time when they spread out over multiple numbers.

I use this argument frequently just to point out the fallacy of the "risk more to win less" analogy, of course. I could have had the right sider place betting $300 on the five in this example - but that was not the point.

I think the Oscar - like anything else - will work when it works. When it doesn't - you'll grow to quickly hate it.

Heavy wrote: I have never been a fan of the Doey Don't. The reason is mostly mathematical - it does not reduce the house's edge. they still have a 1.41 percent advantage on the Pass and just a hair less on the Don't Pass. So essentially instead of paying a house edge on a single $10 bet (in a $10 game) you're paying the same vig on $20. Trust me. I've done the math many times.

While I certainly trust that you have the math correct, could you tell me how I'm wrong on my thought process? If I am just looking to get past the come out roll and play the free DPO why is the Doey Don't not better than just the line bet? I understand the house edge on each does not change, but am I not cancelling them out, mostly?

In my head if I play just the DP line I am going to lose it 8 times every 36 rolls and win it 3 times while pushing it once. This leaves me a net loser of 5 line bets or $50 (assuming $10 bets). While playing the Doey/Don't I am going to lose my line bet once every 36 rolls when the 12 gets me and push every other time leaving me only a $10 loser on the line bet.

Doey-Don’t…The Truth, The Whole Truth, and Nothing But the Truth

What is a Doey-Don’t

As most of you know, a Doey-Don't bet is one where a player places a wager on both the Passline, as well as a wager on the Don’t Passline, at the same time.

~During the Come-Out cycle, the Do-side wins and the Don’t-side loses when either a 7 or an 11 rolls. The opposite thing occurs when the 2 or 3 rolls and the Do-side loses while the Don’t-side wins.

~A Come-Out roll of 12 is the only non-offsetting outcome. In that case the PL portion of the Doey-Don't loses, but it’s a push for the DP portion of it. As it turns out, the seemingly unassuming 12, single-handedly sets and determines the entire house-edge against the Doey-Don’t wager.

~As soon as a box-number is set as the Passline-Point, the offsetting and equalizing effect of the Doey-Don’t takes over once again. That is, as soon as the PL-Point is established, the flat portion of the Doey-Don’t neither wins nor loses since a PL-Point win is offset by a DP-line loss, and vice versa.


Understanding the Doey-Don't

~When you make a Doey-Don't wager, you are making two separate and distinct bets.

That bears repeating because it is a critical point:

~When you make a Doey-Don't wager, you are making two separate and distinct bets.

~The fact that one bet usually wins when the other one loses, and vice versa, is generally what attracts most players to this wager in the first place. They like the way it reduces the Come-Out volatility of their line-bets; however most players do so without fully understanding that reduced volatility comes at a price.

~The outcome of a 12 on the Come-Out is the only non-overlapping win-or-lose proposition in the entire flat-bet portion of the Doey-Don't scenario, in that a 12 is a 'push' for the DP bet and a loser for the PL bet. Every other Come-Out cycle and Point-cycle outcome is offset and equalized for the flat-bet portion of the Doey-Don't wager except for the C-O 12.

~We normally look at dice expectation-distribution in groupings of 36; so when we consider how many wins and how many losses we should expect over a normal random distribution of outcomes, we see that the 12 will show up 1-in-36 rolls. That is where we get the seemingly correct and oft-quoted doubled-up (PL + DP) Doey-Don't house-edge of -2.77% figure from.

Unfortunately that's only part of the story...and it is incorrect due to the incompleteness of the calculation.

~Since we have 'action' on both sides of the line with a Doey-Don't wager; we have to look at the total amount of wagering action we have in play, and then divide our expected-loss into that total amount.

Heavy has previously (and correctly) pointed out that to accurately determine the house-edge against this combination wager, we have to divide our total expected loss into the total amount of Doey-Don’t wagering action to ascertain both the house-edge as well as our return-on-investment.


House-Edge Against the Doey-Don’t

Because the Doey-Don't constitutes two separate bets made at the same time over 36 rolls, they total 72 bets in action, and so any loss or gain has to be divided into that number.

~Say for instance we bet a $5 Doey-Don't with $5 on the DP and $5 on the PL over 36 perfectly-distributed-to-expectancy random rolls of the dice. That's a total of $360 in betting action ($180 on the Do side and $180 on the Don't side).

~If you conducted that same betting-scenario over thousands upon thousands of random trials, the end result would be that the Doey-Don't bettor would lose an average of one (1) betting-unit for each set of 72 combined bets. In this case, that random bettor would lose $5.

~To determine how big the house-edge against this combination Doey-Don't wager is; we have to divide his $5 net-loss into his total wagering action of $360.

~That equates to -1.3888%.

~We can round that off to -1.4%...and that is the house-edge against the Doey-Don't wager.


The Full Doey-Don’t Picture

While the Doey-Don’t neither reduces nor doubles the house-edge against you; it does set you into a situation where you are betting twice as much money…and in the process, as Heavy previously wrote, “You lose at twice the rate at which you would lose if you were only betting on one side alone.”

So in essence, while the house-edge against you doesn’t go up; your expected-losses do, simply because you are now betting twice as much money as you would if you just picked one side or the other instead of both.



How does this Affect the Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R

If anything, confirming that the house-edge against a shooter isn’t doubled as many people initially thought; puts my Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R concept on even firmer ground as a legitimate D-I skills force-multiplier.

Since we now understand that the flat-bet component of the Doey-Don’t wager has a quite manageable -1.4% house-edge for dice-influencers to overcome, the D-D Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R still remains a very sound advantage-play approach because it maximizes the strongest true-Odds-paying element of our line-bets.

While the Odds-bet remains a zero-sum game for random-rollers; in the hands of a dice-influencer, Odds allow him to leverage and multiply his de-randomizing skills to a degree that can’t be matched by a comparably-valued Place-bet on the same number.

As if that’s not enough benefit, the Doey-Don’t Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R also offers the prospect of a wider variety of shooting opportunities by allowing D-I advantage-players to tackle the less crowded but more expensive $25, $50, and $100 minimum-bet tables that we are seeing more and more of these days.

The D-D Odds Stretcher does that by allowing a precision-shooter to play at tables where the bet-minimums are above his current comfort level, by letting him wager off-setting or near-equal PL and DP wagers (let’s say, $50 or $55 on the Passline and $50 on the Don’t Pass at a $50 table).

What's the benefit to that?

Well, by reducing the volatility on the flat-portion of his line-bets; the skilled D-I’er is now able to invest more of his money on the Odds portion of his advantaged PL-Point where the higher (better than even-money) payout leverages and multiplies his de-randomizing skills by factors of at least (depending on the PL-Point); 20%, 40% and 66%...and it's even more effective for Darkside-shooters.

We’ll be taking a much closer look at just how effectively my Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R can be used as a skill-based force-multiplier for each specific PL-Point (based on varying levels of dice-influencing skills and SRR-rates over a reasonable number of trials)...but that's for an entirely different discussion.

For now, knowing that the total amount of the combined Doey-Don’t wager has to be included when any net-loss or net-gain is divided into it in order to determine that the correct house-edge against the Doey-Don't is indeed -1.4% is still bad news for random-rollers who think that this is a good way to play.

However the confirmation of that D-D house-edge comes as good news for dice-influencers who want to increase their shooting opportunities at higher-rent $25, $50, and $100 tables while fully recognizing that the reduced line-bet volatility of a Doey-Don't comes with the cost of a house-edge that is exacted against the entire combined value of both their Do-side and Don’t-side line-bets…and that's the Truth, the Whole Truth, and Nothing but the Truth about the Doey-Don’t.


As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

Anyway, to get back to the original question - are you likely to be getting too deep in a hole running a negative progression on the odds on the Don'ts. My opinion on that is "yes." I think the bankroll volatility is simply too great - particularly if (and I don't think you stated one way or another) you are betting primarily on the random rollers.

AtGame7

You could LAY AGAINST any BOX NUMBER.....

Yes you will be lose your wager should the box number show.

Yes you will be paid seemingly less because the return reflects the ODDS for the number,

The four /ten return $one for $two at risk

The FIVE/Nine return $TWO for each $THREE

The SIX/EIGHT return % FIVE for each $SIX

The return plus the original $ WAGERED is then yours to keep

Yes you will be required to pay a five percent (5% ) commission or Vig from Vigorous

The BANK in Mini Bac takes the same Vig

The BUY on the 4/10 takes 5 points also

One of the ( I THINK) coolest moves is to place a LAY against a number after the shooter
has rolled his first P/L

If you study on it,most people use up their quota of rolls soon after making their first
or second PASS...

For the biggest returns ,you would have to LAY LARGER $ AMOUNTS

The $72 Lay against the SIX or EIGHT plus $3 commission
returns $60 plus your original $72 THE HOUSE KEEPS THE COMMISSION.

You would wager against when you are confident the number will not show before THE SEVEN SHOWS

Another way though it is a slow grind is to wager either D/P or D/C for LARGE ENOUGH $ AMOUNT that you may then BUY / PLACE the number for an amount less than the DON'T WAGER
however of an amount that the PAY OUT would be greater than your loss on the DARK SIDE

For example you wager $100 on the DON'T it goes to the TEN. You make a BUY on the TEN
for $75 and pay the commission $3 or $4 ...You then have A HEDGE SPREAD....

Stand around and patiently await a DECISION ...

While it may not seem an impressive amount a similar HEDGE SPREAD works out for BOOKIES.

The five /nine hedge spread or the SIX / EIGHT spread would return smaller amounts because
you hedge spread will pay at the ODDS for the specific number

While a $100 DARK SIDE SIX with a $96 PLACE WAGER may seem puny or even anemic
over say 5 hours of pulling it off , those returns pile up....Also should you not want to
make the hedge spread on any specific number,you have the option to take it down..

Will THE DEALERS consider you a HIGH MAINTENANCE bother ??? possibly

Will THE HOUSE offer you large comps like the looser clientele receive ? unlikely

Will the LOW INFORMATION CLIENTELE offer you camaraderie ??? perhaps not so much

Will YOUR PERSONAL BANK ROLL GROW....

PERHAPS but to the degree you stick to YOUR GAME


W C

wild child wrote:AtGame7

You could LAY AGAINST any BOX NUMBER.....

Yes you will be lose your wager should the box number show.

Yes you will be paid seemingly less because the return reflects the ODDS for the number,

The four /ten return $one for $two at risk

The FIVE/Nine return $TWO for each $THREE

The SIX/EIGHT return % FIVE for each $SIX

The return plus the original $ WAGERED is then yours to keep

Yes you will be required to pay a five percent (5% ) commission or Vig from Vigorous

The BANK in Mini Bac takes the same Vig

The BUY on the 4/10 takes 5 points also

One of the ( I THINK) coolest moves is to place a LAY against a number after the shooter
has rolled his first P/L

If you study on it,most people use up their quota of rolls soon after making their first
or second PASS...

For the biggest returns ,you would have to LAY LARGER $ AMOUNTS

The $72 Lay against the SIX or EIGHT plus $3 commission
returns $60 plus your original $72 THE HOUSE KEEPS THE COMMISSION.

You would wager against when you are confident the number will not show before THE SEVEN SHOWS

Another way though it is a slow grind is to wager either D/P or D/C for LARGE ENOUGH $ AMOUNT that you may then BUY / PLACE the number for an amount less than the DON'T WAGER
however of an amount that the PAY OUT would be greater than your loss on the DARK SIDE

For example you wager $100 on the DON'T it goes to the TEN. You make a BUY on the TEN
for $75 and pay the commission $3 or $4 ...You then have A HEDGE SPREAD....

Stand around and patiently await a DECISION ...

While it may not seem an impressive amount a similar HEDGE SPREAD works out for BOOKIES.

The five /nine hedge spread or the SIX / EIGHT spread would return smaller amounts because
you hedge spread will pay at the ODDS for the specific number

While a $100 DARK SIDE SIX with a $96 PLACE WAGER may seem puny or even anemic
over say 5 hours of pulling it off , those returns pile up....Also should you not want to
make the hedge spread on any specific number,you have the option to take it down..

Will THE DEALERS consider you a HIGH MAINTENANCE bother ??? possibly

Will THE HOUSE offer you large comps like the looser clientele receive ? unlikely

Will the LOW INFORMATION CLIENTELE offer you camaraderie ??? perhaps not so much

Will YOUR PERSONAL BANK ROLL GROW....

PERHAPS but to the degree you stick to YOUR GAME


W C

I fully understand where you are coming from with this strategy. Would you not get completely destroyed by the come out losses, though?

Mad Professor, thank you for the post.

Both the Don't Pass and Don't Come wager have a CHANCE of loss on the COME OUT roll

6 ways to roll the SEVEN and 2 ways to roll the YO ( ELEVEN )

Opposing 2 ways to roll a THREE ( 3 ) and one way to roll a TWO ( 2 )

The TWELVE is a push as it is "BARED"

Thus 8 : 3 for elimination on the COME OUT ROLL
> > >

After the number is established , the ODDS ( MATHEMATICS ) favor the SEVEN

6:5 in the case of the SIX / EIGHT

3 : 2 in the case of the 5 / 9

2 : 1 in favor of the 4 / 10

>>>>>

The mathematics are the reverse of the ODDS for the DO SIDE

You could mitigate against loss to the SEVEN / ELEVEN on the COME OUT roll
the HOWEVER FACTOR being the expense of offsetting 7 /11 wagers would
eat into your potential win on both the DO SIDE / DARK SIDE of the HEDGE SPREAD SEESAW

======

Bottom line all wagers in a DICE GAME are a CRAPS SHOOT

Hope this helps

Wild Child

Over the long run you will lose less by going naked on your DP bets. Forget the hedges and simply taking your lumps when the devil shows up at the wrong time. If you are concerned about chasing your losses down the rabbit hole - simply use Grafstein's
"never let the same shooter beat you twice" rule plus Patrick's "lose three in a row and it's time to end the session" rule. Playing the Don'ts successfully is almost always a grind, so adding those steps to the mix shouldn't bother you too much.

You might also consider Dylanfreake's "Dylanicci" play - a minor fibbo on the don'ts with a cow-tippin' parlay thrown in for good measure. Appears he is doing quite well with it.

First post. Bear with me.

Obviously, the odds bet on the pass/don't pass & come/don't come are the best bets in the house.

And the "doey don't" let's you get to the odds bets at 1.39% house edge (about halfway between the 1.41% pass and 1.36% don't pass house edge). For example:

$30 on the pass and $30 on the don't pass. You lose $30 on average every 36 rolls = 83.3 cents a roll. 0.833/60 = 1.39%

As noted above, the entire house edge on the "doey don't" comes hitting a 12 on the initial roll.

Here's my question: why not hedge the 12 with a $1 bet? Most people say "But the House has a 13.9% edge!" I say - "Yes, that's the edge on $1. It's cheaper to pay that than pay 1.39% on $60."

The 12 bet pays 30:1 on a 35:1 shot. By covering the 12 with a $1 insurance bet and playing $30 "doey don't" on the pass/don't pass, you lose $5 on average every 36 rolls instead of losing $30 on average every 36 rolls.

Now the house edge is $5/36 = 13.9 cents a roll instead of 83.3 cents a roll. On a percentage basis, the house edge 0.139/60 or 0.23%

Who wouldn't prefer to get to the odds bets (whether you like to play with the shooter or the dark side) at a house edge of 0.23% instead of 1.36%, 1.39% or 1.41%?

I realize that a $30 doey don't per $1 insurance 12 bet is the optimal combination to reduce the house edge. But even at a $10 doey don't per $1 insurance 12 bet where the house edge triples to 0.7%, it's still half as cheap as the normal 1.36% to 1.41% fare.

Is it still a loser long term? Yes. All systems are. But at a cost of 13.9 cents a roll betting a $30 "doey don't" for 100 rolls, don't you think you'd earn a lot more than $13.90 in comps?

Help me understand why people say don't cover the 12 on a doey don't? What am I missing? Thanks.

MP - didn't you write:

"The seemingly unassuming 12 on the come out roll single-handedly sets and determines the entire house-edge against the Doey-Don’t wager."

Doesn't the doey-don't hedge convert the normal "per resolution" odds of a regular pass or don't pass bet into "per initial roll" odds since a 12 on the initial roll is the only house edge?

We aren't playing the 12 for insurance on any other roll but the intial doey-don't pass/don't pass and come/don't come bets.

Mad Professor wrote:Hi Coog,

You have to keep things in proper context. The 12 DOES determine the entire house-edge against the Doey-Don’t wager, because all other outcomes offset each other.

However, as you know, there are often multiple Come-out rolls where your 12-hedge has to be in place (or be replaced).

So for example, any instant-resolution C-O results (a 2, 3, 11, or 7) which account for 30.5% of all Come-out rolls; means that your $1 12-hedge has to be replaced quite often (on average, 11-out-of-every-36 C-O rolls).

In that case, your 12-hedge cost climbs quite dramatically.

MP

Thanks, MP. I see your point. I figured I was forgetting something.

At 13.9 cents disadvantage per $1 insurance bet, however, the replacement cost is relatively cheap.

Per 36 rolls, you spend $36 and get $31 returned. 24 points are established. And 11 times, you have to replace your insurance.

On the 11 replacement rolls, you spend $11 and get over $9 returned. 7.33 points are established, and you have to replace the insurance 3.36 times.

On the 3.36 replacement rolls, you spend $3.36 and get over $2.70 returned. 2.24 points are established, and you have to replace the insurance 1.02 times

And so on.

It averages to:

54 rolls
36 points - lose $36
1.5 twelves - win $45

16.5 repacements rolls, consisting of:
11 one and done replacements - lose $22
3.36 two and done replacments - lose 10
1.02 three and done replacements - lose $4.08
0.31 four and done replacements - lose $1.55
0.1 five and done replacements - lose $0.60
0.03 six and done replacements - lose 0.21
etc.

Add it up and it = $30 loss every 54 rolls.

This is better than a $30 loss every 36 rolls which is what happens on a $30 doey don't.

I'm completely confused now.

The house edge on the DP bet is essentially 1.4% (rounding). Assuming a $10 game you're talking about a "cost" of that bet of .14 cents. Depending on the house payout (31 - 1, 30 - 1, or 29 - 1) you're looking at from 11.15 to 16.67% house edge on that buck bet. The fact that you combine two bets on the same play does not reduce the house's edge. Each bet stands on its own mathematically. Adding prop hedges adds to your total cost to play.

Think of it this way . For every $5 DP or $5 Pass Line wager you are giving the casino seven cents on every $5 unit that you wager. Example $10 DP or PL 14 cents; $20 DP or PL wager 28 cents.

Dylanfreake wrote:Think of it this way . For every $5 DP or $5 Pass Line wager you are giving the casino seven cents on every $5 unit that you wager. Example $10 DP or PL 14 cents; $20 DP or PL wager 28 cents.

Right. $30 doey don't = $60 wagered = 12 units of $5 x 7 cents = 84 cents house edge per bet. As described above.