Tell Me When and How to Bet this Table

[heavy]

With our Veteran's Day Reveille Crapsfest event looming, I thought I'd crank up a little discussion on charting, tracking the table for streaks and trends, interpreting what's happening and translating that to action on the layout. For this exercise- you have just bought in at your SL1 for $300. You're in a $10 - 10X odds game. There are five other players at the table. Four are playing the right side. One is playing the Don'ts. The Don't player has around $5000 in his rack, but you have no idea how much he bought in for or how much he is betting. The other players are making minimum Pass Line bets with 3 - 5X odds. One is a come bettor playing a 3 point molly, two playing pass line and placing the inside numbers for one unit each. The last player is place betting the six and eight only for a couple of hits and down. The right side bettors all have between $200 - $500 in their racks. You chart the table through all five shooters and here are the results:

Shooter 1 - sets the dice and tosses carefully: 10, 5, 10P, 9, 6, 3, 11, 7out
Shooter 2 - sets the dice and tosses randomly: 11, 12, 7, 11, 6, 9, 10, 10 hard, 5, 7out
Shooter 3 - shoots from the don'ts and sets the dice - tossing from straight out: 6, 7out
Shooter 4 - completely random - picks the dice up as presented and fires them down the table: 6H, 10, 4, 3, 5, 6P, 6, 6H, 4H, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7out
Shooter 5 - new shooter who has no idea how to play the game - random roller: 10H, 4, 11, 9, 8, 7out

Okay, that's one lap around the table. Your turn to shoot the dice if you want. What do you see in the charting that interests you? Is their any point in tracking the numbers at all? How are you going to play your hand - and how are you going to bet on the next lap around the tablet?

[gargoil]

The newbie will take a crack at. Hope not to make a big fool out of myself. Maybe just a small one.

The betting habit of the Don't person was not specified so based on his chip stack and the size / betting habits of the others, I would have to assume that the table is playing to his favor. I would be careful with my approach and use the MP 204 system as the shooter.
When the dice switches there are probably two approaches I would follow.

1- Go with the don't shooter since he apparently knows something because he has been at the table before me ("Assumption.... for a while")
2- I would probably use MP 204 for shooter #1. Shooters 2 and 3 I would play the Don't, Shooters 4 and 5 I would place bet the 6 and 8 for a couple of hits then down.

[heavy]

Interesting observations. Let me ask you a question. Why would you bet the Six AND Eight? In the prior 38 rolls of the dice we've seen exactly ONE eight. That one eight falls into what I sometimes refer to as the "prodigal" number. It showed up after being gone for a long time. And when it showed up it brought a guest with him -- the seven.

[wild child]

Prefer to observe four rolls with zero 7 or HORN #'s showing
( exception for Yo on Come Out )

Tend to turn off wagers or Place BIG RED when a casual YO shows
when there has shown string of BOX NUMBERS

When a BOX NUMBER shows 3 times ( Number,REPEAT,REPEAT ) I usually
turn my wagers off at least two rolls.........

The M P $204 Across With Steep Reduction post TWO ROLLS
and $96 Across with $4 HORN
may and off after one Roll may have held up well in a TYPICAL day on
a TYPICAL TABLE....

Should not get spanked too severely with either approach...

With some more information/exposure may goto ( TRANSITION) to DO NOTS
or find another table...

W C

[gargoil]

Interesting observations. Let me ask you a question. Why would you bet the Six AND Eight? In the prior 38 rolls of the dice we've seen exactly ONE eight. That one eight falls into what I sometimes refer to as the "prodigal" number. It showed up after being gone for a long time. And when it showed up it brought a guest with him -- the seven.

That comes from the advice often given on the forum by the experts. Bet 6 and 8 on random rollers for a few hits then off. (that's if I bet on them at all).
Since we only have statistical information for 1 round of rolls and we don't know what the outcome was for prior rolls, it would be safe to follow the general rule for a couple of turns until some statistical information can be determined.

[bahdbwoy]

probably bc its what i did last night and still fresh in my mind i would have dodged bullets noticing no player made more than 1 pl point winner except the completely random.

[LeftyAJ]

Heavy

If I have the dice next, I'm setting the 2V for my come out roll.

$10 PL bet........ and since hardways have been rolling I've got $5 each on the hard 4 and 10 working on the CO.

Once a point is established I'll back it with 2x odds and then also buy the 4 and 10 for $20 each. Sticking with the 2V set, I'm now shooting for those two numbers. If I hit the point (whatever it is) that's just gravy! First hit on a 4 or 10..... same bet. Next hit, I'll start to press just the number that hits. If I toss any other number as a repeater I'll also place bet it for $10 or $15. I don't like to have any more than 3 place bets on the board (excluding the point) at any given time.

AJ

[Bankerdude80]

I see a lot of tens and fours. Buy them both for $25 each with a $18 six and a $15 nine, allowing for a simple regression on each first hit. Then collect, press, collect, press...

[Knick111]

Hi Gargoil,

Gargoil said: I would be careful with my appoarch and use mp's $204 system as the shooter.

Can you or mp tell me the buyin - in dollars OR units if you wish, so a player can play mp's
$204 across system.

Thank you. JAIME.

PS: This is my second post to you Gargoil, because my system or heavy's system misplaced it.

[heavy]

This is my second post to you Gargoil, because my system or heavy's system misplaced it.

That happens to me sometimes as well, Jaimie. Beats the heck out of me what's up with that. I know I posed a response to one of MP's stock market reports the other day and it went the way of the dinosaurs.

Some things you guys might look for when charting tables . . .

1. Trash numbers immediately preceding the seven.
2. Okay, I won't say anything about the hard ten.
3. A series of repeating point numbers like we see with the nine on shooter four.
4. A prodigal or "lost" number that shows up after a long absence.
5. Anyone shooting from the Don'ts.

. . . just to name a few.

Any other observations?

[gargoil]

Hi Gargoil,

Gargoil said: I would be careful with my appoarch and use mp's $204 system as the shooter.

Can you or mp tell me the buyin - in dollars OR units if you wish, so a player can play mp's
$204 across system.

Thank you. JAIME.

PS: This is my second post to you Gargoil, because my system or heavy's system misplaced it.

Hey Jaime1943. I am still fairly new to the system so I will leave it up for the experts to help answer that. I can tell you I follow it to the 4th press after two hits and stay. That has been working for me lately.
As for the bankroll I prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And it also depends on the number of sessions I plan to have at the table. To do the Math, If a table has 5 shooters and the worst is all 5 PSO then you need to start with 5 * $204. Although I can tell you I would be playing from the Don't at that table thanks to the tips I am getting on the forum from spotting and researching tables

[Knick111]

Hi GARGOIL,

Also greetings to MP and heavy and all the members on this board.

Everybody on this board talks about MP'S $204 across betting system, But I don't remember anybody talking about how much you need as a buyin/ money OR units to play this system.

So I'm asking the man that invented this system MP. How much do I need as a buy in to play this system.

Also, any member that knows can post on this subject.

Thank you. JAIME.

[freak]

I tend to bet by feel and like to bet on most shooters lately but can't afford to bet much. So what jumps out at me is a pretty fair number of sixes and outside numbers. If I have to pick one or the other I pick the six since odds are that trend is more likely to continue versus the outside numbers. So I think I'd do this:

1) After the point is set place a $12 six.
2) If it sevens out the max loss is -$12.
3) If 6 hits press to $18 and lock up $8.
4) If 6 hits again, regress to $12 and lock up $27.
5) If 6 hits again, press to $18 and lock up $8.
6) If 6 hits again, lock up $21.
7) If 6 hits again, use winnings to press or place another number(s). From here bet by "feel" keeping about 1/2 and pressing with about 1/2.

Next month might be different but that's what I'd do now. Max loss per shooter is -$12. If my math is correct I would lose -$13 with this strategy having played all of the above rolls. -4, -4, -12, +27, -12. If I had the six placed and working all the time this fairs much better on these rolls: -4, -4, -4, +52, -12. That's a +$28 profit. I normally don't do that since it creates more come-out losses, but I'd consider the change if good "six" hands trended to have the six on the point versus in the hand AND there were few CO sevens.

[realtime]

Re: lost posts.

What I have noticed is that if I do not wait for the message "Your post was submitted successfully" or some such verbage and immediately go back into the site after hitting submit, my post(s) get lost. Patience I guess is the key.

[heavy]

Shooter 1 - sets the dice and tosses carefully: 10, 5, 10P, 9, 6, 3, 11, 7out
Shooter 2 - sets the dice and tosses randomly: 11, 12, 7, 11, 6, 9, 10, 10 hard, 5, 7out
Shooter 3 - shoots from the don'ts and sets the dice - tossing from straight out: 6, 7out
Shooter 4 - completely random - picks the dice up as presented and fires them down the table: 6H, 10, 4, 3, 5, 6P, 6, 6H, 4H, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7out
Shooter 5 - new shooter who has no idea how to play the game - random roller: 10H, 4, 11, 9, 8, 7out

Okay, I'll weigh in on this now. I've just watched five shooters handle the dice. I see an abnormally high number of sixes, nines, and tens. Three of the shooters are dice setters. Two are not. The Don't guy has more money than anyone at the table, but we don't know how much he bought in for.

I would try to buy in straight out - right next to the Don't player. I like shooting from straight out and I want to know more about how he's playing. Just ask him straight out - how's the table running. Try to get a little more info. When it's my time to shoot I will make a table minimum Pass Line bet. I'll use my favorite mutant V-3 set and set a point. I will not work any "come out game" such as shooting for the horn numbers. I just want to set a point using my best set. I'll take double odds and get my second toss in. If I hit any box number I'll put some place action on the table. I always bet the six and eight with the set I'm using, so I'm not going to change that part of my game. $18 each on the six and eight. Odds are I'll also place the nine for a whopping $10 and buy the ten for $20. Yeah, I know. Mathematically that's s poor buy bet - I should push the house to $29 or whatever. But I want to roll a ten before I run up the buy bet. Sooooo, I'll have $66 action on the place bets plus my line bet (we'll assume a $10 game) and odds. That's a total of $96 action. Now I'm off to the races. The average hand at this table has been running right at 8 tosses. I think I'm good for that. On the first hit on the six or eight I'll drop $3 and press both to $30. I will stay at that level for the remainder of the hand. If the nine rolls I will collect but not press. If the ten rolls I'll collect $34 net and make it a proper $25 buy bet. From that point on I'll double my buy bet on the ten on every hit - $25 - $50 - $100 - $200 - and then the big leap to $500. I'll stay at $500 for the remainder of the hand. Now HERE is the kicker. After eight tosses I'll regress and make it look like $12 each on the six and eight and take the rest down as profit. At that point I'll press my odds up to 5X if the table allows it and focus on bringing back the point. If, at any time, I started throwing consecutive trash numbers instead of box numbers, I would turn my bets off until the paying numbers find their way home. That's the big stuff. I MIGHT consider the hard ten an indicator on this table. However, I doubt that I would turn my action off based on it appearing.

Admittedly this is an aggressive play - but I'm betting on myself in this example. As for betting on the remainder of the table:

$25 Don't Pass. Establish a point. Place the six and eight for $24 each. Lock up the first hit on the six and eight and I'm guaranteed a win for the hand. Second hit - pays $28. Place the nine and ten for $10 each and lock up an additional $8. Now it's take - press - take - press out to roll eight or so - then take it all down and wait for a decision on the Don'ts.

[arrgy]

As a DC player I would have won because I would not have bet on shooter 3 or 4 (even if I didn't know the outcome)

I never bet at all on a don't side shooter. I never bet against a woman, and if a 7 out comes right after a number is established (like in shooters 3-4) I don't bet against the next shooter. So in reality I would have on 3 shooters (2 with 5x odds and 1 with no odds) lost on 0 shooters and bypassed 2 shooters.

[heavy]

LOL. That sort of sounds like how I pick horses when I go to the track. Never bet large fields. Never bet low stakes claimers. Never bet maidens. Leaves me about two races a day at any given track that I can bet - which is why I quit betting horses. It's too damn much work.

[shunkaha]

The newbie will take a crack at. Hope not to make a big fool out of myself. Maybe just a small one.

The betting habit of the Don't person was not specified so based on his chip stack and the size / betting habits of the others, I would have to assume that the table is playing to his favor. I would be careful with my approach and use the MP 204 system as the shooter.
When the dice switches there are probably two approaches I would follow.

1- Go with the don't shooter since he apparently knows something because he has been at the table before me ("Assumption.... for a while")
2- I would probably use MP 204 for shooter #1. Shooters 2 and 3 I would play the Don't, Shooters 4 and 5 I would place bet the 6 and 8 for a couple of hits then down.

Not setting out to slam you or anything but I am curious, if you bought in for $300 and the following conditions apply:

1] this is your first roll of the day, and
2] by your own admission you assume the table is trending as a Don't bettors paradise

why would you ever think betting 2/3rd of what you bought in for is being a careful approach, for that matter why would you ever think betting 66% of your money is careful? If you were correct in your assumption of a negative trending table you may not have enough left of the $300 to play a $204 MP on shooter #1 especially if you PSO [you have yet to warm up but you risked 66% of your money that you're the only winning dog in this fight]. Also what criteria would you bet the don't on player #2, because if they had an identical hand [not that it is probable] the first 4 tosses would have 3 losses and 1 push, would you lay that much in odds once his point of 6 was established? Also why 2 hits and down, because player 5 only got 1, player #4 got 3 if you weren't WOTCO, yet he also got 3 9s.

Just an observation, only 2 of the 5 are DIs of an unknown degree, but this the sampling size is so small in one hand that whatever conclusion you drew is equally likely to be wrong. For instance if shooter #3 he is so good as to be able to PSO on demand he should never remain at the table very long else he pisses some of those wins down the hole with the IRS, therefore if you think he is that awesome he should either have just bought in with a marker or be about to color up if he bought in very small... but this depends on a set of standards to be true that you have as yet no way to verify [you saw 2 tosses on a PSO]. I would need to decide is shooter #1 showing me typically or atypical rolls of greater or lesser length [just because you set the dice doesn't mean you're a DI anymore than flying on an plane makes you the pilot]. I still need to do the same type thing for the random rollers if I believe in trending, else I just like to write alot for no reason, and what is charting if not a form of trending.

My takeaway would be slightly different,
What is shooter #1 setting to know if he's all over the place or if 4 of his 5 box numbers being outside is indicative. It'd take another round to be sure but if I believed this was enough info on how he shot I'd bet him outside at minimums. On shooter #2 If I thought lightening was going to strike twice I would be looking for whirl numbers on comeout and leave the rest of his toss alone [yes I likely would lose but then anyone betting a random roller should expect that]. I'd have the toughest nut figuring out if #3 was shooting from the don't because he's that good, or if he is out of position and believes his hand will be bad... the difference between this is his forte and I ride that pony and he thinks because he's out of position he will do poorly [if he changes sets its a good sign, if he doesn't I won't bet him because the same set that caused him to 7 out is what he set a 6 with last roll]. On shooter #4 of 14 tosses 50% were either 6 or 9 so I may as well piss away my random roll betting on that as any other negative expectation bet. As for shooter #5 I hate betting on players that are not only random but clueless, if I must bet something to be able to shoot when its my turn I will find the single cheapest thing I can bet that the box is ok with and do my best to pull it down the minute they let me.

For my shot, I do a PL and a $2 any craps, set for whirls, if I do well on comeouts I wait to see if anything is repeating and bet accordingly from the comeout money, if the hand progresses that's great, if not I lost $12 and will probably live. The main thing is I don't try to solve a math equation without any information on the variables, and 1 hand is not info to go nuts on betting. Ideally I watch the 2 controlled shooters to determine a trend in their shooting [this suggests either signature numbers or skill levels, etc] and bet accordingly or I bet only myself unless the box bitches, then I take the cheapest bet I can... unless my shot is bad in which case I leave ASAP.

[gargoil]

Shunkaha, my assumption here is to make money from my play to stay in the game for a while then color up. So here is what I was thinking and please feel free to jump right in with advice. Remember I am still new at this.

Assuming it's shooter # 1 turn....

Shooter #1 MP204 Get a couple of hits then off.
Shooter #2 and #3 play the don't and hope to score.
Shooter #4 and #5 place the 6 and 8 for a couple of hits then down (based on general advice on randies from the forum)

Now you see I am making lots of assumptions and hoping for a lot.

I have to say now that I have taken a couple of classes and observed different betting strategies I would take a different approach.

[Mad Professor]

It is totally unreasonable to come in with a $300 buy-in...bet $204 right off the bat on what may be a skilled-shooter...and hope to come away with anything more than disappointment.

I too am not trying to be mean, but I also think that would be putting unreasonable demands on your money.

If you were talking about a $2000 buy-in (with a much, much deeper overall gaming-bankroll reserve to back it up); that would be different; but if we are talking a $300 buy-in; then the MP-$204 is just NOT in the cards.

Similarly, if you have a low threshold of loss-tolerance...for example, if losing three or four $204 bets in a row (on three or four skilled-shooters in a row) would send you into apoplectic shock (especially if your overall gaming bankroll wasn't deep enough to handle that kind of drawdown, or if you yourself would have a hard time mentally handling that sort of loss); then the MP-$204 most definitely is not for you.

The whole idea behind that betting-approach is that you first have a very deep and resilient bankroll that can weather all sorts of negative variance on pos-ex skilled-shooters...and you have to have a very positive loss-tolerant attitude to match.

That is, the MP-$204 seeks to make an overall net-profit from multiple shooters throwing multiple hands over multiple sessions...and coming out the other side with a very decent profit...but all the while recognizing that there is going to be a TON of toss-to-toss, hand-to-hand, shooter-to-shooter, and session-to-session volatility along the way to making that profit.

That's the nature of the advantage-play game.

~If your pos-ex wagers can weather the volatility in a pos-ex game; then you make an overarching profit.

~However, if you run out of bankroll-bullets before you give those skills a reasonable enough chance to show their overall pos-ex advantage; then you will still LOSE despite having the ADVANTAGE.


MP