Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

We all know that the middle of the table has the highest house edge, but if you were to set for 2,3,11,12 or the hardways, you would only need to have their frequency come out just a bit higher to make them profitable. Example, lets say with the 12, if I throw a nickel down every throw, all i need to do is throw 2 12's instead of 1 12 to in the first 36 throws to be profitable. the same with the 2. And in reality, all you need is 3 12's in the first 72 rolls and your in the black! That's 1 extra 12 in 72 rolls! Doesn't seem that hard for DI. If you could throw any other hardway, than rotate dice for the 12 or 2. Opinions?

Genius.

Listen up folks: advantage play craps, EVEN IF IT EXISTS AT ALL, is boring.

If you want to know if something is an advantage play or not, I would suggest to you that it pass the "is it boring" test.

If it doesn't sound boring, it's probably not advantage play.

I developed a difficulty scale rating for how difficult it would be to advantage play craps.

One hardway bet hopping can be overcome in spite of the high edge because you have a very narrow target.

If you hop all the easy ways and two of the hard ways, I think even a math challenged person can understand that getting paid $31 or $32 for $32 in risk is impossible to beat.

There is everything in between when it comes to single-roll bets in terms of difficulty to advantage play with a controlled shot.

I hope this helps!

Ahigh's Difficulty Rating wrote:
Bet name: <calculation> = <difficulty rating>

0 difficulty only requires luck to beat.
10 difficulty rating is impossible to beat.


buy 2/12: 0.11 * 1/36 = .0000308
buy 2&12: 0.11 * 2/36 = 0.006111
buy 3/11: 0.22 * 2/36 = 0.012222
buy 3&11: 0.22 * 4/36 = 0.024444
buy 4/10: 0.33 * 3/36 = 0.0275
buy 4&10: 0.33 * 6/36 = 0.05555
dont pass: 0.40 * .1459 = 0.05836
pass line: 0.42 * .1458 = 0.061236
place 6/8: 0.46 * (5/36) = 0.063894
hardway: 2.78 * (1/36) = 0.07784
place 5/9: 1.11 * (4/36) = 0.123333
place 6&8: 0.46 * (10/36) = 0.1278
two hardways: 2.78 * (2/36) = 0.15444
crapless pass: 1.29 * .1238 = 0.15976
110 even: ((0.33*6/36)+(0.46*10/36))*16/36 = 0.17278
three hardways: 2.78 * (3/36) = 0.23166667
place 5&9: 1.11 * (8/36) = 0.2467
one hardway hopping: 13.89 / 36 = 0.3858333
160 across: ((0.33*10/32)+(1.11*10/32)+(0.46*12/32))*24/36 = 0.6225
easy hop: 11.11 * 2/36 = 0.6172222
204 across: ((0.33*50/204)+(1.11*70/204)+(0.46*84/204))*24/36 = 0.651176
two hardways hopping (or pairs hop hi-lo): 13.89 * 2/36 = 0.7716
64 across: ((0.833*10/32)+(1.11*10/32)+(0.46*12/32))*24/36 = 0.7796875
$39 Iron cross: ((0.46*24/39)+(2.78*5/39)+(1.11*10/39))*30/36 = 0.9241
32 across: ((1.67*10/32)+(1.11*10/32)+(0.46*12/32))*24/36 = 1.04125
three hardways hopping: 13.89 * 3/36 = 1.1575
field: 2.78 * 0.44444 = 1.2355432
three-way crap: (13.89*(2/3)+(11.11/3)) * 4/36 = 1.4404
all hard ways hopping: 13.89 * 4/36 = 1.543
three-way six hop: ( 13.89/5 + 11.11*4/5 ) * 5/36 = 1.6203
three-way red: 11.11 * 6/36 = 1.8517
any pair hopping: 13.89 * 6/36 = 2.315
hopping every easy hop: 11.11 * 30/36 = 9.258 (wins 1/15th 83.33% of the time)

This can be very useful for folks who think that it is only the house edge (hold percentage) that affects your ability to overcome the edge.

But even if the hold percentage is 0.00021 from taking 100x odds, if you bet both the pass and the don't pass, it's still impossible to beat the game because you always get paid when you bet against yourself.

In other words, the hedge component (a player's general desire to always get paid no matter what happens) is another factor that you must consider when trying to win.

And it's this hedge component that gets measured in my "difficulty rating" where I rate the combination of various bets to come up with how likely it is to be able to overcome the house advantage on a combination of bets placed at the same time.

Tonybugs- You are right, you can beat the game that way. with a 30 to 1 payout you need to hit 3 twelves in 89 tries to still be ahead 1.12%. There are a lot easier ways to get an advantage though. For example placing the 6 or 8, you have a much smaller house edge to beat.

Hop bets are the crack cocaine of craps. With a demonstrated skill you can use the 12. However, everyday does not offer the predictable and there is volatiity.

When shooting and "in the zone" go for it. Day in and day out the 7's might be better, but, like with crack, you will lose in the end. Shooting is a physical skill influenced by many outside variables that change rapidly. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Play and bet to your skills and use discipline.

Good Luck

Fresh off a 3 day trip covering 4 sessions and 12 hours where I played with multiple DI's and not a single person could make 3 consecutive points; I'm questioning a lot of things regarding my craps play. There were more PSO's than 6&8 combined on ALL shooters. There were more 12's thrown than 6&8 on ALL shooters on this trip!

The only profitable moments on my latest trip occurred when I made "High Edge Bad Bets" especially when two novice shooters went on ridiculous "12" heavy streaks including a first time shooter who last night had a hand where he threw 9 consecutive fields followed by a Pre-point cycle hand of 12,2,11,12,2, where I made a 4-Digit profit in those 5 rolls. The ironic part is neither of these two shooters bet a single "12" on their hands and were both broke after their hands. I tipped both shooters with a few green chips to motivate them to shoot again but both could not muster a decent hand on their next attempt.

The next table, I saw a DI and bet $110 Inside, betting $25 Pass Line (Point was 10) with $75 in odds. He proceeded to hit 6 consecutive Hardways (H4,H4,H6,H8,H4,H6) before he stopped to make a dealers bet and then he 7'ed out. (Shooters stopping their toss to make a dealers bets 7'ed out on the very next toss 5 out of 5 times on this trip).

I somehow managed to LOSE money on his hand because I did not call my bets OFF hoping he could power through...every single time I hoped a person including myself would power through adversity on this trip (Money on the table during hand, severe late bets, dice off the table, dealers making strange hand movements while dice was in action), they 7'ed out on the next toss. It was incredible, completely unbelievable but true.

From my recent experiences; DI is fast becoming a complete waste of time. There is so little you have control of on the table unless you have a private table with players with perfect etiquette and dealers who will allow you to win.

Back to the Hardway DI story, the guy next to me simply bet a total of $20 on the Hardways ($5 Each) with no pressing and got back $240 for his $20 investment. With a simple $5 press on each hardway hit; he would have got back $360 for his $20 bet.

Who was the smarter player here? Not me. Pass Line with Odds and betting the Inside #'s was the LOSER move for me on another trip yet again. When will I ever learn to stop falling for the fallacy of making the best "Low House Edge" bets?

Yet again, I LOST 4-Digits betting (5,6,8,9) and WON 4-Digits betting the (Horn specifically 12's, Hardways, Hop 7's, Field).

I only used about 20% of my bankroll making the "bad" bets and the remaining 80% betting the Inside #'s. If I would have flipped the numbers and used 80% of my bankroll on "bad" bets; I would have easily made over $10,000+ profit betting conservatively. With some power press moves, simply parlaying the first Horn, Hardway hit, you are talking about a $50,000+ profit trip.

In my lifetime, the people I see make 5 Digit profit sessions all came from making High House Edge bets specifically Horns and Hardways. I've seen more people lose 5 Digit bankrolls solely from making the "best bets in the game" (Pass Line with Full Odds, Come Bets with Full Odds) than any other bets.

My latest trip which concluded in the past few hours is another example of this almost "15 year trend at the craps table" that I have noticed.

Being taught about "House Edge" has RUINED my entire existence as a Craps player. I keep praying I can brainwash myself and never make another inside bet again!

FORGET House Edge, simply keep an open mind and bet on the #'s that are hitting....30:1, 15:1, 9:1, 7:1 is a lot better than 7:6, 7:5, 2:1 as long as the shooter is making it at a reasonably enough clip to justify the bet.

Respectfully,

CrapsForever

I agree, betting on the numbers that are hitting is the way to go.Now if I will only do that.

I have seen some pretty big scores made with the hways. The key is they have to be hitting.....Duh
I saw a guy do quite well by using his HW hits to fund his box number pressure. He would take the payout and press the hw a little and use the rest on the any way box number. He made thousands on a long hand by doing this.

Hop bets, hardways and field bets can turbocharge a session's result and offer a rush that adds to the expeience. That said, they can drain a bankroll faster that a politician can spend your tax dollars.

In the game of BJ, emphasis is put on the positive benefit of 3-2 payments for naturals and doubling down. Why? Because those higher payoffs help your efforts to overcome the "edge". Prop bets can do the same for craps..........if used sparingly.

Grinds work. Look at my firend DF. He is a master grinder and enjoys it. I don't have the time or patience anymore. My sessions are infrequent and the idea of grinding out 1 hit and down 30% profits make me not even want to open the garage door.

I have lost more money (opportunity costs) in TUMA than I would ever want to admit to. Yeah, I kept discipline.....and got squat.

Hop when you see a mini trend. Hopefully you can catch some of it and turbocharge your session.

Hop and enjoy.

Golfer


PS: GO BEARS !!!!

Once the dice hit the table and the back wall, it's all luck from there.No matter how you set them or tossed them, its a random outcome.

IndieFilmGuy wrote:spiker,
I understand why any person can say that. Until you personally have seen DI in action, it is very easy to be skeptical and dismissive of it.

This sort of thinking is interesting. The last impressive win that I saw was this one:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... c7e820a239

Now this end of the table doesn't look that impressive, but the rail of the shooter (who doesn't even have much out there bet) was about $800 at this point.

On the other side of the table, the guy won $4,500 from a $450 buy-in.

What was his secret? He was lucky.

He made the ten, and then he set the point as four, but didn't make his final point.

But he almost had both a 6-point fire AND a 1000-to-1 payout on the replay on the four! Both of which pay 1000-to-1.

And his DI skill? Zero. He was just picking them up and shooting them.

This was at the Orleans yesterday.

I was only watching and planned not to play and was just there to eat a coupon/meal at Friday's.

I still don't bet on random shooters as a general rule no matter how lucky they appear to be.

The point of the message is this: if the guy HAD appeared to be a DI and did this, some of you would think he was amazing. It's just not enough to watch less than 1,000 of anyone's throw and think they have anything special in my opinion.

This roll was certainly less than 100 throws. Just luck!

The point is 6, and easy point to make. The guy then places the the 8 and lays max odds behind his 6.

why would you lay max odds? at least get your termonology right if you are going to preach about DI.

Casino revenue must be generated from concessions.

It's funny how I read in all of these post that know I likes to bet on the randies, but I was at the crap table 5 times last week, 2 sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday and 1 session on Saturday, and there's 2 things I noticed: 1. There's not many DI's in AC. 2. I made most of my money on randies. Here's how I see it. 95% of people who play craps are playing because they enjoy playing. There not out there trying to beat the game edge wise, there trying to beat the game that moment. On Saturday, I witnessed 3 Fire bets cash in, 1 6 point, and 2 5 pointers. All 3 shooters picked up the dice and shot. No setting. Was it luck, of course. The 1 DI that I spotted could throw 6's and 8's very consistent, but the other numbers were awful. That's why I feel you cant wait. Go light early, but but ride the wave when it comes. The guy next to me made the 4 twice and the 10 twice and a ton of numbers in between. It's gambling, so let's gamble!

Maybe it's just me however when I start to overanalyze a Craps game before hand; it usually never works out for me. However when I just go with what the table is giving me and follow my intuition regardless of who is shooting; I almost always end up with nice profits.

I'll give 3 quick examples from recent trips in the past month of how betting simply with my eyes and not overanalyzing with my brain made me lots of $$$.

Example #1: Recently, in a Casino I noticed this CRAZY trend where after each shooter threw an "8" during the Point Cycle, they immediately followed it by a hand-ending 7-out. After the 3rd consecutive time it happened, I started hopping the 7's everytime the "8" appeared during the Point Cycle. After getting paid 6 consecutive times with this "anomaly", the table completely emptied out because people thought I was "bad luck"; it's called taking advantage of an obvious situation.

Example #2: On a trip last month, AMAZINGLY, STUPEFYING, I 7'ed out on the very next toss on 10 consecutive hands immediately after throwing the Hard 10. After the 2nd time 7ing out under the same circumstances, I took heed....called my bets "OFF" and hopped the 7's everytime I threw the Hard 10 and got PAID each time. What's even crazier is I wasn't trying to throw 7's; I was trying to throw a Box # but I'll be damned to not get paid if the same "anomaly" keeps repeating itself over and over again.

Example #3: On the same trip last month, during my pre-point cycle tosses earlier, I was betting $5 RED with a $5 C&E for the Dealers all day on my hands; they LOVED me because my pre-point cycle Horn set, toss and results (Horns & 7's) were ON FIRE!!!! I knew the Karma would come back sooner or later; I just had to be patient!

The Boxman noticed that the guy standing straight-out was the first person I was contemplating betting on the entire session. I kept on looking at his Dice Set, Fingers, Grip, Stance and Follow through. He was either a DI or a Rhythm Shooter...either way I was definitely going to bet on him....just trying to decide what numbers to jump on.

The extremely friendly Boxman tapped the dealer and motioned towards me "Help him out, he's been tipping you guys all day", the dealer smiled and advised me "The shooter is here everyday and only shoots 4's & 10's, Don't bother placing the 6's & 8's like he does". A wry smile came across my face; I had heard the same thing described about me a time or two before back when I had a consistent toss. I stood there confused because the shooter did not have a single bet on the 4's and 10's, he had a $30 6&8. After seeing him throw a couple of 4's; I jumped on the Buy 4 and Buy 10 bet AFTER he made his point...

After throwing a total of EIGHT 4's and THREE 10's, the shooter started getting nervous and wanted to make a "Buy 4" Bet for $25 in the middle of his hand. I "knew" a break in his rhythm would surely end his hand so I told him, don't worry about it, for every "4 or 10" you throw from here out, I'll give you $50. The shooter threw THREE more 4's and I gave him $150 before he finally 7'ed out. He had over 30+ throws on his hand, tossing nothing but outside numbers including 11 4's and 3 10's, he did not throw a single 6 or 8. I guess the dealer knew exactly what he was talking about...

Have fun, don't overanlayze, make $$$...

Respectfully,

CrapsForever


Note to Self
Read this post everyday until your next trip in a couple of weeks....

Tonybugs/Hop Bettors

Don't be discouraged by any naysayers. Use the Horn Bets after you have noticed that you toss it consistently on the craps table in the casino you are shooting on or if you see shooters (Rookies/Experts) consistently hitting it at that table. They truly do come in bunches.

I usually only bet on Horns during the Pre-Point Cycle when I/ other shooters are setting for it. On my most recent trip, I personally bet on the Horn on all of my 22 hands and threw a Horn on 14 of those opening hands....with 8 of those Horns being 12's. After establishing the Point, 20 of my 22 hands ended with a 7-out within 3 rolls. Surprisingly I was not a PSO King but a Point Established, Box #, 7-out magnet. Ironically most shooters on this trip had very similar hands to mine. Not going to state the obvious...however Horn/Field bettors were the only winners on this trip.

Overall on myself and the other shooters setting for 12's, I bet and hit the horn on over 60% of those rolls. The best sequence was the guy who thew 5 12's in 8 rolls and the other shooter who had 2 hands, 20 tosses, 17 Fields, 7 12's.

On my last hand of my last trip, using my 5/6 6/5 Dice Set, I bet a $50 Horn and threw 12,3,2,11,H6. After establishing the Point (6), I set and bet for the "12", threw another "12" and passed the Dice to the next shooter to complete my hand; he's a DI who is a Hardway King. The trip before we did the same thing when I threw a Hard 10 (which was the bane of my trip; every single time I threw a Hard 10 the trip before, I 7'ed out on the very next roll...every single time) he completed my hand throwing the Dice 25+ rolls, hitting the Hardways 10 times.

This time he got the Dice, I knew he wasn't setting for the Horns so I pulled down all my bets locking in another 4 Digit profit. I can't explain to you the feeling of locking up $1,000+ on a $50 bet before the Point is even established. When I get comfortable enough to parlay the first Horn hit and relax enough to hit it again; I'll truly be raking in the $$$. Parlaying and Tossing effectively are still impossible for me when I'm shooting the Dice.

Hardway DI's next 5 rolls after I pulled down my $50 Horn; 12,2,2,3,7. Imagine if I would have simply left my $50 Horn bet up; you can't make this ish up!

I have always found it much easier to throw a Horn than a 6 or 8. It took me a LONG time to understand that tossing, betting and hitting a Horn is a gift that must be utilized!

Forget House Edge, learn how to throw Horns or find someone who can throw them consistently and....

Make Money!!!

Respectfully,

Crapsforever

Avatorboy,

Ironic that when I wrote that I 7'ed out in 20 out of 22 hands in 3 rolls or less on my latest trip, it didn't tickle your fancy.

When I wrote that I lost 25 straight trips in Craps a few years back mostly on Casino boats; it did not elicit a response out of you.

Now you want to speak up when I took advantage of an anomaly. I've been told to respect my elders but look at the message at your avatar in the mirror buddy boy!

Those fancy new $100s bulging in my wallet are all the proof I need. See you "Horn" Shooters at the tables in less than 2 weeks. If you see me make a 6&8 bet on my hands; I give you permission to punch me in the face.

Avatarboy,

1) I bet you have never seen a man go from $200 Horn to a $56,000 payout in 4 rolls.
2) Bet you have never seen 14 PSO's in a row before.
3) Bet you have never seen 15 Fields in a row before.
4) Bet you have never seen the same shooter throw 15 8's in a row.
5) Bet you don't know one of my nickname's is Horn King/Pre-Point Specialist and I've made people thousands and got thousands in tips in making Horn bets.
6) Bet you have not seen a shooter call his bet off on 12 consecutive hands, hop 7's and throw a 7 on the very next toss (ME - October 2013)
7) Bet you have not seen a shooter (ME) put down the Dice and walk away from a table during an hour and a half 60+ rolls hand because he was close to putting a disrespectful player 6 feet under.

I've seen, witnessed and taken part in all of these in my almost 15 years of playing craps. Nothing is BS in Craps if you are skilled/lucky/unlucky enough to witness it. I only have about 16 stamps in my passport playing Craps out of the country this year.

You'd be shocked that a forum member that I played with in the last 2 months had a 38 roll hand, with 30 Fields, 11 Horns, and 10 10's and the only bet he had was the inside #'s. On the same trip, almost every single time he put his bet down on my hands; my very next roll was a 7-out.

Avatarboy, you don't know me, let's keep it that way!

CrapsForever

CrapsForever wrote: You'd be shocked that a forum member that I played with in the last 2 months had a 38 roll hand, with 30 Fields, 11 Horns, and 10 10's and the only bet he had was the inside #'s.

I am shocked. That you actually know a forum member and he actually played with you. Based on your advice yea you may have gotten lucky but that stack of 100 dollar bills in your pocket is going to disappear on the long run. Now if you are smart enough to stop playing and enjoy the winnings then good for you. I read your posts and have a feeling you will be back at the table so put 2 and 2 together.

Oh and by the way Irish (or MR. Irish to you) knows more about the game and how it needs to play than you and your generation before and after you regardless of how big that 100 dollar bill stack is.

CF, I would love to be at a table with you. Rolling horns, parlaying hardways, making money! Fun, fun, fun. Thats what this game is about! I could grind for hours in the card room, waiting for premium hands and than pounce, but grinding sucks. I make an above average salary from the company I own so grinding for hours to make $80-$100 a trip isn't worth it for me. I get 4 or 5 opportunities to go to AC per month and I have 2 objects when I go down- 1. Make Money, 2. Have Fun.

If the trend is the Horn, then PRESS THE HORN BABY!

I make an above average salary from the company I own so grinding for hours to make $80-$100 a trip isn't worth it for me. I get 4 or 5 opportunities to go to AC per month and I have 2 objects when I go down- 1. Make Money, 2. Have Fun.

Hey Tony - I'd call you an "action" player. Hell, I used to be the same way and I still love hitting a horn or hardway parlay, and there's nothing like the feeling you get when a hop bet comes home. But you have to use a little common sense with that stuff. Dedicate a small portion of your trip bankroll to prop play if you want, but make correct low vig bets with the majority of your action. Otherwise, that prop dog is going to bite you.

Heavy, appreciate the advice. I always start slow on a shooter, but always jump on the wave. I get more aggressive when I'm up, like most of us, which might be my downfall. I guess I'm not a "Strategy" guy! LOL