Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Links to two calculators

1) Craps Probability Calculator

http://www.web-expression.com/craps/


2) Craps Streak Calculator

http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/inf ... enter.html


All The Best,
Tgold

Very cool calculators, Tgold. Thanks for posting.

I love that calculator.

Now I can officially retire my slide rule that I have owned since 1964.

Thanks all /glad you find them interesting to play around with...

Dylanfreake--thx--but don't discard that slide rule as you may want to develop another Don't strategy: (Cowtippin II)

all the best,
Tgold

Wincraps

Recently we got off topic on another thread where we started talking about how to calculate the odds on various bets. That got me to thinking about some of the betting strategies we run from time to time - particularly when running Dark Side strategies where we look at Laying the point after a shooter has made a certain number of Pass Line wins based on the probability that he'll win (or lose) the next bet. I knew there was a probability calculator out there somewhere that had been posted on the forum at some point in the past. I finally found it this evening in this thread by TGold from way back in 2013. Further proof that if you guys aren't taking time to dig into the archives here on the forum you're missing a wealth of useful information.

I was curious, for example, what the probability was of a player making a five Pass Line wins in a row. The answer: The probability of 5 consecutive wins on the Pass Line is: 0.02910202, or about 1 in 34. In other words, if a player makes four Passes Line wins (not including Come Out naturals) then establishes a fifth point and you Lay that point the odds are you'll win that bet 33 times out of 34 - at least from a probability perspective. Statistically, depending on what the point is that the player established, the actual odds don't change because (as the old saying goes) the dice have no memory. Still, I'd be willing to make that bet.

Thoughts?

The past couple of years i have been trying to phase in dark side play to my craps strategy. I started by going to the casino when it was really crowded and knew i wouldnt be tossing. I would watch hands develop then mentally place dont bets or lay numbers. Slowly i gained enough confidence to take up a spot next to the dealer and snipe dark side bets. While i didnt wait for a particular number of passes it did give me confidence as hands went long and several passes had been made, but i would always look for other triggers along with number of passes or just number of tosses.

Thoughts on winning 33 out of 34. I miss Irish.

House of Orange wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:17 am Thoughts on winning 33 out of 34. I miss Irish.

And I miss the Mad Professor...........

Here's MP's lead paragraph from his classic "Dodging Bullets as a Darksider" article on Dicesetter.com:


To Begin With… I’ll start by telling you this:

The chance of a random-roller making multiple Point-winners in a row is as follows:

Ø There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.

Ø There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.

Ø There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 0.5% chance that a player will eventually make six PL-Points in a row.

These numbers have been rounded-off, and were kindly provided by Mike Shackleford (The Wizard of Odds) and Alan Krigman (Winning Ways).


Yep..... that's kinda how I look at it for Dark Side play. While I don't do a lot of his Choppy Table - Short Leash play any more; since I lean more toward OHCM, I do like taking things to the level four against the flingers, which is close to 1 outta 35, DN8R

After making 4 points, the odds he will make the 5th point is still 40%, on average, higher if the point is 6 or 8.

Thoughts on winning 33 out of 34. I miss Irish.

I would not be surprised if I were to discover that he's still lurking here under a sock puppet handle he could have created as a moderator of the forum, but I can tell you that I don't miss his bullshit one bit.

Agree/Disagree, to what purpose? He can't insult as in days of yore.

Ever wonder the actual number of Dice Table Hands
potentially witnessed by a FULL-Time Dice Table Employee
over a period of time ranging from a single decade to perhaps
as extended as four(4) decades?

As a full-time employee, one potentially would work 2080 hours/annually.
{ F T E is on occasion referred to as "Full-Time Equivalent"}

( F T E hours 8 hrs/day
x 5 days/week
x 52 weeks/week
x as many decades may become in postulating )

As an enthusiastic hobbyist
engaging in casino dice games
perhaps said hypothetical persona may be present at a hypothetical;
dice table significantly fewer number of hours
( or perhaps a number larger related to the "enthusiasm & $ USD fortune ")

just me saying
W C

Agree/Disagree, to what purpose? He can't insult as in days of yore.

No. He made it clear he did not want a venue to post anymore - at least not in line with this forum's guidelines. If you'd like me to insult you on Thom's behalf for old times sake I suppose I could, HOA. But I'd be violating my own forum guidelines and I'd have to put myself in time out, so the less said regarding about our departed member the better, I suspect.