Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 10:17 am**

I'll apologize in advance for the length of this post and try to keep my thoughts organized along the way.

In a nutshell this is nothing that hasn't been tried a thousand times, I'm hoping that talking/thinking through it will highlight some glaring errors. I'm playing $36 DP with a $6 hop 7's on the come-out. First of all, is the protection of the $6 hop bet a bad idea? I guess I don't mind losing to the 7 but it seems like (and I know it's just perception) that those bastards come in bunches so the $6 is protecting against several in a row in my mind. So, that is why the $36 DP, I really want a $30 DP and figure that $6 pays for itself more often than not once a point is established.

Once a point is established (if it's not a 6/8) I place the 6 and 8 for $12 each. Here is where it gets a little murky for me. I don't know what my goal should be from here. Press as far as I can? Two hits and down? Two hits with full press each then turn them off? I guess I need a goal to maximize my effort here. I know if I hit either one once I am guaranteed a profit for the roll (assuming the point is not made), but I need a strategy/goal here. For a while I tried this:

First hit press to $18 each
Second hit drop $3 and press to $30 each
Third hit drop $1 and press to $48 each
Fourth hit $152 and down

I would then wait for a decision on my DP line bet. If they hit the point I still win $84 if they miss it I am up $156.

I like that idea, it's just that I have gotten three hits so many times only to 7-out on the money shot (still a $4 profit).

Am I asking for too much to try and hit a combination of four 6/8's before a 7-out? I feel as though I am now trying to avoid too many dice combinations. If the point is a 5/9 the I am trying to avoid all the 7's and the 5's (10 combinations). I'ts hard enough to avoid that damn 7 when playing the right side, I'm worried that adding another four or three combinations is just asking too much, is it? I this where the strategy falls apart?

Am I trying to "protect" too much of the 6/8 bets with my DP bet? Should I be scaling that back to $26 and live with the $10 loss each time I don't make my 6/8 progression? Should I give up on the 6/8 progression and just be happy collecting each time they hit?

I'm really trying not to ramble. You get the gist if the idea. $36 DP, $6 hop seven's, $12 six and eight. What makes it better or can it be made better?

Thanks

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 10:58 am**

I think $6 on every come out roll is just too much to spend on a hedge. If you're going to use the hedge at all then go with a partial hedge at $3 and reduce your DP to $25. That essentially leaves you with $10 in sevens (and elevens) exposure. I would not worry about the eleven.

If you reduce your DP to $25 then you could play $24 each on the six and eight. Your total sevens exposure at that point is $23. Of course, you'll already be $3 in the tank for the hop sevens bet. One hit on the six or eight will pay you $28. At that point - even if you factor in the hop sevens - you will be $1 ahead for the series assuming you leave all bets up and on as is. That's assuming my Sunday morning math is working right. From this point you can just sit back and collect every hit. Or you could go "up a unit" on every hit. Or you could full press every other his. Or you could press the six and eight both. Or you could play hit and down. Or hit and regress. Or . . . . you get the idea. It all depends on what your objective is.

A variant of the above would be to play a $25 DP and come back with $12 each on the six and eight - but it would take two hits to get ahead if you're going to keep the bets up. I kind of like this play to be honest with you. And in most cases I'd play it hit and down. If I can get a $25 DP established I already have the advantage on that bet. If I can collect an extra $14 that reduces my sevens exposure for the hand to $11. That means I'm risking $11 to win $25 on a bet where I'm booking the house. I'm all over that deal.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:04 am**

Hi AtGame7,

~Assuming you are only planning to employ this on yourself because you know to a high degree of certainty that you toss with a distinct well-validated in-casino advantage over the Place-bet 6 & 8; then a Hop-7 hedge is nothing more than a guilty (and wasteful) indulgence.

~If you are planning to employ this on random-rollers; then the slow bleed will be relentlessly visited upon your bankroll like a pox upon your house; meaning that your losses will occassionally be punctuated by wins that are never enough to put you ahead on a net overall basis.

That will leave you pointing out individual sessions where you triumphed greatly; but where your overall losses swamp those sessional wins by an ever-increasing distance.

MP

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:05 am**

Reading this, its seems kinda confusing what you are trying to accomplish. I think your putting the cart before the horse in some respect. Technically, there is nothing wrong with the betting system, looks great on paper until we apply it to real life. You haven't mentioned anything about what set your using, if you change your set from the come out roll etc. Before adopting a betting strategy, I think we have to look at what your tossing. Have you tracked your practice rolls with BoneTracker yet? What's your SRR like, do you show certain numbers coming up frequently? Is the set your using producing the numbers they should be?

If your description of your hands are correct, where you 7 out on your money shot, and that is consistent, you should probably be doing a initial steep regression and then just start pressing up from there.

The thing though, I'm not sure why your striving to avoid 5/9's? If your tossing them, I would go with it, the payout is better than the 6/8. I will typically go on streaks with other numbers often.

PappyVanWinkle

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:29 am**

pappyvanwinkle wrote:Reading this, its seems kinda confusing what you are trying to accomplish. I think your putting the cart before the horse in some respect. Technically, there is nothing wrong with the betting system, looks great on paper until we apply it to real life. You haven't mentioned anything about what set your using, if you change your set from the come out roll etc. Before adopting a betting strategy, I think we have to look at what your tossing. Have you tracked your practice rolls with BoneTracker yet? What's your SRR like, do you show certain numbers coming up frequently? Is the set your using producing the numbers they should be?

If your description of your hands are correct, where you 7 out on your money shot, and that is consistent, you should probably be doing a initial steep regression and then just start pressing up from there.

The thing though, I'm not sure why your striving to avoid 5/9's? If your tossing them, I would go with it, the payout is better than the 6/8. I will typically go on streaks with other numbers often.

PappyVanWinkle

I do not toss the dice.

There, I said it. I have tried to avoid this conversation on this site because it seems full of decent guys and does not contain the fighting and bickering I have seen on other sites. I do not believe influencing the dice to do anything other than produce a random number is possible.

Please do not label me as a hater and I would like to avoid being shunned for my opinion. If you believe in it and it is working for you then by all means continue doing what you are doing. I guess I just think that those diamond points on the back wall are the great equalizer when it comes to making the dice to anything besides produce a random number. The MINUSCULE difference in landing area, contact point on the wall and rebound area make this just too difficult IMO. Sorry.

Understand I don't think anyone trying to learn this skill is wasting their time. There are lots of things in life I can't do that others can. Try as I might I can't play a guitar. I'd love to, but I simply don't have the coordination.

I hope we are still friends......

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:45 am**

AtGame7 wrote:
I do not toss the dice.

There, I said it. I have tried to avoid this conversation on this site because it seems full of decent guys and does not contain the fighting and bickering I have seen on other sites. I do not believe influencing the dice to do anything other than produce a random number is possible.

Please do not label me as a hater and I would like to avoid being shunned for my opinion. If you believe in it and it is working for you then by all means continue doing what you are doing. I guess I just think that those diamond points on the back wall are the great equalizer when it comes to making the dice to anything besides produce a random number. The MINUSCULE difference in landing area, contact point on the wall and rebound area make this just too difficult IMO. Sorry.

Understand I don't think anyone trying to learn this skill is wasting their time. There are lots of things in life I can't do that others can. Try as I might I can't play a guitar. I'd love to, but I simply don't have the coordination.

I hope we are still friends......

Can't speak for everyone else but he we are still friends.. although we never met

You have stated your opinion in a very polite matter and NO ONE on this forum should have a problem with that. After all this is what forums are all about.
Now to your post, In my opinion 90% of DI shooters will have a strong chance of a random roll. But every now an then one of them moves to the other 10% where the chances of a random roll decreases and the odds for the number they are going after increases. I have seen it and I do believe that 10% exists.

The trick is to try and recognize them at the table and use that to your advantage.. There aren't too many of them

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:53 am**

AtGame7 wrote:I guess I just think that those diamond points on the back wall are the great equalizer when it comes to making the dice to anything besides produce a random number.

Why in the world any dice-influencer worth his salt would be tossing into the diamond-point/alligator/egg-crate portion of the backwall instead of the smooth, non-alligatored bottom-lip of the backwall is beyond me.

The diamond-point/alligator/egg-crate simply RE-randomizes an up-to-that-point DE-randomized toss. If you see any skilled-shooters regularly throwing into the b-wall diamonds; then you are seeing a shooter whose outcomes will be as close to random as 'damn' is to swearing.

That is, you may see SOME residual influence (mostly by way of latent correlation); but for the most part an into-the-diamonds derandomized toss will have very little (if any) correlated influence left over when they come to rest.

Conversely, a soft (low-energy) impact with the bottom non-alligatored lip of the backwall has a higher prospect of maintaining both axial-integrity as well as correlative-influence.

As to the fact that you yourself are a non-shooting random-outcome bettor; no prob. Heavy runs a 'big tent' message-board here.

MP

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:26 pm**

Thanks for coming clean AtGame7. Like I said it wasn't clear from your description what you were trying to accomplish. So, your looking for a betting system for essentially any random roller and your basing it just on the distribution of numbers aka more ways to make a 6/8 than the other numbers (except the 7)

So, part of my previous response still holds then, if in your experience, you see the 7-out just when your going to be in the money, I would change it up to a initial steep regression. The amount kinda depends on what you can afford, because it can get costly with those PSO's in the mix, but like i said, if you see enough consistency with the hands you've bet on where they 7-out on the money shot, change it to a ISR.

I'm not a fan of the DP. The main reason being is, it's only going to pay even money, I kinda hate those bets. I would just bypass the comeout roll completely and place the 6/8 once a point is established. This also avoids the problem you have when the 6/8 is the point, because I don't think you do anything if they are the point right? Also, your doing the 7's hopping just as a hedge on the comeout, so like I said, I would just avoid the bet altogether. Since your not tossing, it's not like you need to have a pass/don't pass bet to toss.

Another variation you might consider, again based on the hands you've been seeing, which sounds like no real long rolls, and you believe big red is coming, you might take the money from the hits and lay the odds for your DP.

Like I said, alot of this goes to what you believe.

For the most part, your system is like a variant of SIA's betting system, I think it's the can't miss system or something like that. I think the difference is, your pressing the bets instead of racking up the hits. You might consider doing that instead, granted your not going to win large amounts, but I think you'll have more potential winners. You could also try increasing your bet amounts.

PappyVanWinkle

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:47 pm**

pappyvanwinkle wrote: For the most part, your system is like a variant of SIA's betting system, I think it's the can't miss system or something like that. I think the difference is, your pressing the bets instead of racking up the hits. You might consider doing that instead, granted your not going to win large amounts, but I think you'll have more potential winners. You could also try increasing your bet amounts.

PappyVanWinkle

The more I read the more I realize that every betting style I come up with in my head has been done a thousand times over. You should see the one I come up with where you double your bet every loss. Eventually you hit a winner and come out ahead. I haven't made any money with it yet, but on paper it really can't lose.

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:50 pm**

On the one hand - I'd say you're a bit too focused on hedging. On the other side of the coin - you're never going to lose a LOT playing that way. It's just tough to win much. You have a house edge to overcome on every bet you're tossing out. The more bets - the more juice. Remember the old KISS theory and keep is simple.

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:53 pm**

AtGame7 wrote:
The more I read the more I realize that every betting style I come up with in my head has been done a thousand times over. You should see the one I come up with where you double your bet every loss. Eventually you hit a winner and come out ahead. I haven't made any money with it yet, but on paper it really can't lose.

Yes looks great on paper and then when you go apply it, you get hit with reality. The reality in this case is depending where you are playing, you'll hit the table max or you run out of money, whichever comes first

PappyVanWinkle

Posted: **Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:37 pm**

pappyvanwinkle wrote:
AtGame7 wrote:
The more I read the more I realize that every betting style I come up with in my head has been done a thousand times over. You should see the one I come up with where you double your bet every loss. Eventually you hit a winner and come out ahead. I haven't made any money with it yet, but on paper it really can't lose.
Yes looks great on paper and then when you go apply it, you get hit with reality. The reality in this case is depending where you are playing, you'll hit the table max or you run out of money, whichever comes first

PappyVanWinkle

Sorry, sarcasm just doesn't translate well. I really thought I should have won something for being the 1,000,000th person to invent the Martingale strategy (once I found out I wasn't the first to try it).

Posted: **Mon Nov 25, 2013 2:51 pm**

I see a couple of problems with your system. First, your trying to make money on every shooter. That isn't going to happen. I've learned to make money by not betting on every player. Most shooters will seven out within 4 rolls, at which point you won't make any money anyway. Second, if you want to make money, pick a side and go with it. This game is hard enough to play and now you want to play middle.

Third, trust the force! It's out there if you look hard enough!

Learn from this board, there's a lot of info

Bugs

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:04 am**

Hello,
I just got registered in the group and wanted to say "hi".
I have a lot to say and opinions and whatnot, but wanted to get connected by
jumping in on this thread and possible finding active ones.

I live near Twin Rivers and finally there are live table games within reach. Over the
DECADES I have bought (and returned and received refunds) many kinds of systems.
I notice that Siverthorne is a big player lately and I seem to be on their radar.
I am always wondering why some of the systems they sell aren't just posted or
discussed.

But anyway, I like the dark side. But lately I have been noticing the 6/8 place
bets like this thread is about. I play them occasionally and am NEVER shy about
taking them down. So a partial response to this thread is that I don't do anything fancy.
I think I do what Heavey says and "get up and get out".

I'd like to hear or be directed so some of Heavy's methods or instruction, or anything
anyone can do to hook me up with information here.

As for the don't side, I met a guy at Twin River who said he lives/haunts the casinos (there,
foxwoods, etc) and makes his living. In a nutshell what I got was he waits for a DP and then
plays DP. Looking for streaks basically. If he wins one ($10) he hedges with an any7/yo
bet on the next comeout, etc. He was up about $100 after an hour of two. I liked the premise,
except the hedge part. But I have both of these in my radar.

The 6/8 and that don't method.

Last week I was there and saw some pretty long don't runs. And I guess, being equal to the
pass, it works both ways.

Toodles.

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:35 am**

I read the entire thread and I'm not sure what your goal is, except to say that I think you come to the table with "some" faith that the theoretical combined occurrence of 6/8s favored over the 7 as a probability of 6-to-5 appeals to your sense chance; that you'd like to put your money where your 'faith' is...

I think the $6 hedge is a waste, as so many others have voiced. If you're especially afraid of the repeating 7 (and 11) , why not bet the way Grafstein proposed--skip the DP completely and wait for the CO roll to establish a point? Then bet the DC for $30. At least this way, you'll only be exposed to a "one-time" occurrence of the 7/11. (If you absolutely have to, you could place your $3 7's hop or a $2 yo or even a $2 aces-and-ace/deuce bet to compensate for the singular exposure of the 7/11; but I wouldn't suggest'em, especially if you think the dice are random outcomes.)

If you're so geared to hedging, why not just press your 6/8 to $30 each and take them both down on the third hit? There. Now you're hedged. That'd leave you with a favored DC bet. You'd have a guaranteed profit of $10 and a chance at $100 if the 7 pays your DC.

If your "hunch" is contrary to this scheme once you've made your profit with the 3rd hit, you could actually take down the DC (which I *REALLY* don't like--but you'd be holding $40 profit from that move) and roll right into Heavy's Heat Seeker scheme. The maximum loss exposure if that betting scheme goes its' worst is $22 (with a $5 minimum-bet scheme). If you lost, you'd still be holding $18.

By the way... what do you do if your $30 Don't bet roll results in a 6 or 8? Do you take the bet and just place the other number or do you refuse the bet? The casino makes a metric shit-ton of money from place bets that die on the 6/8.

Also, what happens on a CO when you've got the 6/8 placed and a $30 DC--are your place bets working?

Frankly, I think it's a lot of wheel-spinning. "Timing" the crap table is very much like timing the stock market. It just can't be done. Hedging could make a little profit, but I think you'd be better off 'taking a chance'--find a minimum-bet system that can predictably limit your total losses on the PL and DC and play them when your hunch tells you the table leans that way (hot or cold). There are two I can think of immediately--Heavy's "Heat Seeker" system (for the cautious 'hot' play), or Dylanfreake's "Cowtippin' " system (for the cautious 'cold' play).

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:52 pm**

Mogul - a couple of thoughts on Silverthorne. Bootleg copies of most of his and Benson's systems are on line. If you're good with Google you can find them. Be careful, though, because some of those download sites are really set up to hijack your browser and infect your computer.

Now, Silverthorne's systems are usually Fibonacci based with multiple "re-set" steps. SO your play might be with $10 units and you'd bet $10, $10, $20, $30, $50, $80 . . . then reset with $20 units and run the series again. Our old pal wwwww, aka wolfebyte, aka . . . good lord, I don't know how many handles Jim posted under through the years . . . but look through the member list and search out his posts. He talked a lot about the Neural with the addition of "three capping." I won't get into the entire strategy because I don't know that I could pull it off. Noodle around the site enough and you'll be able to cobble it together.

If you're going to run a negative progression then the Fibo is the one I like best. But really, I've rarely had any success with such progressions.

Based on what you're saying about your preferred method of play - you might want to consider something like a naked DP bet for $25 (or bypass the come out and go with a $25 DC bet). Once that's established Place the six and eight for $24 each (even if the six or eight is the point). Get one hit on the six or eight, then regress to $12 each and a guaranteed profit for the hand. Take another hit then bring it all down and wait for a decision on the DP/DC.

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:23 pm**

As far as progressions go I'm with you. I've seen just about everything with them. One time I was watching roulette at Foxwoods and these two girls were apparently playing a martingale (on that hand) for red/black and got their ass kicked. Even as an observer you just feel like the other color is due.

As far as systems, there was a period in my life when I got sent ads for all kinds of systems regularly.
I'd buy them, return them for a refund, and get it. I had files on the computer because I never got the refund the first time. (I'd send it back with documentation and copies of everything.) It took the 2nd request. So there were points in time where I was ordering one, returning another, sending a 2nd request for another one, and getting a check for another one. Finally one day a place sent me a note saying "please don't order any more systems since you always request a refund". Hand written note. I just hope that, somehow, whatever the system is, it is something new and innovative. Not just the fib or some other crap like that. I have looked around for a long time for silverthorns methods and everything. You have been the first to actually state something about them. It is foolish.

As to the don't pass thing, I was looking at the 6/8 just on it's own. Probably because doing don't pass stuff in conjunction just isn't in my radar. The reason, I think, is because of the raw fact that you will hit a high % of pass (loss) from 7,11, etc while trying to get up the don't pass bet, so I don't see it as of value. I'd be spending the rest of my time trying to get it back.

And talk about a vig!!!!!!!

Speaking of vig, I always hear it mentioned and talked about like a holy grail. Personally I think that if you had some kind of good playing methodology that the vig would be insignificant.
When I worked at MIT on of the kids went to a casino with $1000. He wanted to test the odds.
The dutifully placed pass bets and ran it through the table. At the end he was down the statistical
1% or so. If fact I think it was exact.

My other thing is that, when you think about a vig vs how much money people actually lose, it always seems to me that games might even have a POSITIVE expectation and the casinos would win a shitload of money. People's nature is just stupid. Don't get me wrong, if it were a positive expectation the casinos would lose. But not the reverse of what people lose now. You can't tell me that the guy I saw last week who I knew who lost several hundred $$$ while I watched bet the total required to lose that. It happens all day.

The vig, I suppose, just make casinos winning certain. But mostly people lose cause of emotions, chasing losses and stupid play.

I like parlaying bets. THAT is letting the casino (MAKING THEM) play a martingale. They lose, and they double up.

That is my kind of thinking. Of course you have to know when to take it down. And if you lose that hand, you only lose your original $10. I ran that up toe $800 once. And the pit critter looked in pain, always trying to push my winnings to me,

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 8:19 pm**

Mogul, I have often said if every bet in craps paid true odds the players would still lose as much money as they do now.

People will find a way to lose.

Posted: **Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:29 pm**

Have you ever kept track of the numbers rolled in a casino while you are there?

I do. I'm always looking for a shooter who perhaps throws an awful lot of one number. The thing I have found, is that I'm probably wasting my time writing down every shooter's rolls. One time they throw a lot of 6's and 8's and the next time they throw a lot of 5's or 10's. Even for the shooters (which seem to be very few in my area) who set the dice and so are attempting to influence them, get the same results.

However, what I see is the majority of shooters 7 out within 5 or 6 rolls. Having the Don't Pass and then placing the 6 & 8, you will see very few shooters roll those numbers twice let alone three times or four times.

I was at two casino's yesterday and looked at my records. A few people rolled lots of 6's and 8's, but the majority were lucky to roll one or two before the 7 showed. And there were some shooters that rolled numbers other than 6 or 8.

Yesterday I did see one player who was strictly playing the Don't Pass. He used $100.00 chips and always seemed to put odds on his bet. A few times he lost that $100.00 chip when the 7 or 11 rolled on the Come out, but when he left, he cashed in and ended up with $1500.00 - $2000.00. The only thing is, I wasn't there when he bought in, nor was I there when he first started playing, so I don't know what his buy in was or how long he played. The thing I will say, is he was at the right table at the right time - shooters were sevening out before they rolled their point.

But that can change, and you will have just as many winners at Pass Line - as the losers at that time, and you would quickly lose your money.

Posted: **Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:26 am**

Playing craps can and does drive many crazy. I mostly play dark. I do hedge, when it appears to be needed. If not, I do not. Hedging dilutes profits. I have dabbled with the 6 & 8 play while holding a DP with odds. Sometimes it works OK and sometimes not. MY best uggestion is take down after 3-4 rolls or 2 hits and wait for the DP decision.

Golfer

Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

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