Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Let me just toss one idea out. Instead of betting something like $66 inside when you're the shooter - with a regression to $22 inside after one hit - or whatever - bet $50 - $60 on the SISTER number to the point. At least try that in your practice sessions. You might be in for a surprise. Plus - get one hit and your entire bet is paid for - no need to regress unless you just want to lock up more profit.

tabletop123 wrote:Thanks Heavy, I'll try that, as well. Hopefully, IF I don't fu--k up again, & loose my bankroll, I'll accompany gargoil, on his next class, with you guys.

tabletop.. I guarantee you if you take the class you won't F'up your bankroll (unless you go on Full tilt ). What I got out of the class was how not to waste money at the table. No waste = saving. You should try and Make the January class.

We will talk more if you make it this Friday.

Be careful with those "guarantees." I've seen too many people do exactly what you said - go full tilt and chase their losses to oblivion. I recall one guy . . . no, MORE than one guy . . . who couldn't leave the ATM alone. Max out one card? No problem. Here's another. And another. And another. Here's a hint for you. If you play through your airline reservation and your flight leaves Vegas without you - you might have a gambling problem.

Now, I will guarantee you that if you use my envelope system with your bankroll you'll get home with at least HALF of what you brought to Vegas - and there's a good chance you'll get out of town with a win.

Yep. That's why the guarantee came with a warning...(Don't go on tilt)
I started on a similar envelop method a LONG time ago (10 years at least) when I found myself broke the first day into a three day trip. It's no fun to be broke in Vegas. After watching your video I am modifying it to how you showed us.

Tabletop123: Here's what we've found in practice that holds up to save money..We follow Heavy's plan to wait to bet till the shooter has a point and tosses another box number before placing our regression bets.. Each of us bets differently according to our risk tolerances ...Rocketman never reduces his bets and shoots till "ole ugly" shows...he also waits on the 2nd box number to show so he won't get burned by a short hand..No matter who the shooteris

Hinduman normally starts with $22inside but with most randies doesn't make a pass line bet...He's a up one unit type better...Should forget the randies and
bet only on the rhythm " Rollers"..Of coarse trends matter, as in every shooter making his first point, or any other trend that repeats itself....

I on the other hand wait for that 2nd box number to show before placing my bets..I tend to toss a lot of 7's on the come out and it's amazing how many short hands I eliminate ..I hedge my come out toss and follow it with a come bet and the most I have exposed to risk is $5,$5 pass line with $5 odds and a come bet..On those short hands this will save a ton of money on a choppy table..

Another trend is Heavy's " Bet the Sister Number" as it shows a high percentage to times on the first toss following establishing the point....Also showing up a great deal is the "Last Number that didn't win as the point "...This happens on the "Come Out Toss" and can be hopped for very little money...

These are a few examples of things we've learned from Heavy ..Of coarse it helps to know your trends and what normally shows up for you like if you get past the 5th-6th or 7th number you're usually good to go for that 20 or greater toss hand..

Dice don't have a "Memory" but do have a "History" if you keep track...

Hope this helps ..I wish I had the memory it takes to tell all the details of several sessions. How do you do that?

Thanks :

Tracks

"Let me just toss one idea out. Instead of betting something like $66 inside when you're the shooter - with a regression to $22 inside after one hit - or whatever - bet $50 - $60 on the SISTER number to the point. At least try that in your practice sessions. You might be in for a surprise. Plus - get one hit and your entire bet is paid for - no need to regress unless you just want to lock up more profit."

Thanks Heavy

Another good tip. I plan to try it too and will post my results.

One thing I've been doing of late is placing a few numbers (my signature numbers) but in varying amounts. For example the point is 5. Add $10 odds to five. Place a $30 eight a $6 six and a $20 four. If the 4 or 8 hits on the next roll, take it all down and play with the $35 - $39 winnings going heaviest on the number that hit. If the six hits full press to $12 and place a $1 hard 6 and 8 and give it one more roll. If the 4 or 8 haven't hit in two rolls take them down. You can mix this up however you want. The key is to have a big number to give yourself a chance for a nice win without having to be on every number, and a chance for at least some progress on a few other numbers. It does feel good when the big number hits right away. And if an empty number hits at least there was no LOSS. The hardest part for me is making that regression after only one hit. Part of me always wants to full press that first big hit. My brain says: "My signature number just hit, that means I'm on a roll right??" But inevitably when I do it turns a nice little win into a loss which hurts even more than a PSO because I had a CHANCE to take a profit. No doubt discipline is the devil of any regression strategy.

The more wagers I have on the table the more I feel the need to regress. With 2 wagers such as PL with odds and a single Place bet 3-6x table minimum, once the single place bet hits its paid for so Ill let it ride. What happens after two hits depends on the rolls. If the two hits come quick I let it ride a little more, if it has been quite a few rolls Ill go down to minimum or down all the way. With multiple Place bets out there Ill wager higher than minimum so after one or two hits (depending on how many rolls ) Ill regress or go down.

Ive become a fan of having no more than 2 place bets just because less hits required to get them paid for

tabletop123 wrote:snip...Maybe, it's a mind-thing, but it's most interesting that the sister number usually hits for me 3 or 4 times, during the course of the hand....snip

Same thing happens to me at the casino...that is, if I DON'T place it. Once I place the sister it goes away. Or if I place it immediately it never shows. Another mind-thing the dice conspire to do to us (well, me anyway)

In total agreement with TT on the sister numbers. Unless you are just pounding a number why risk your money by spreading it over 3, 4, 5 numbers? Now I use to do just that, 44,66 or their equivalent to the outside bets. Just to much risk for so little return. Since making the point is only secondary I only make a minimum PL bet with or without odds. I know that might sound like utter nonsense to some, but I play a pretty conservative game. Here is an example of my play for the 6/8. 1. Always Scout the table. 2. When I have the dice I make a table min PL bet. 3. Next roll will determine the rest of this roll. If I roll a point number I may or may not take 1 x odds; I will surly burn in hell for that comment. If I PSO I'm down my PL bet and odds if I have one. 3. Should I get pass the second roll I'll place $30 on the sister number. 4. The first hit on the sister number covers my bet. 5.The second hit on my sister number puts green on my side. Now this is where things pick-up. 6. Should I hit the sister number 1 more time I pick up $10 and double my $30 bet. Keep repeating this method until you 7 out or make your point. I'm comfortable with this type of play, this may make others players fall asleep, but I think we can all agree that when it comes time to leave, you want to walkout with more $$$ then you came in with.

NOTE: I only use this sister number method when I'm shooting, not when anyone else is shooting.

One problem with placing all the numbers is that the house edge you are facing on each number is probably not the same. If I am in a situation where I can buy 4,5,9,10 (and pay the vig at the end) then I will bet all the numbers and shoot the crossed 2s. All the bets have roughly the same edge, and in my experience I have similar likelihood of hitting any of them. It would certainly be great to have more money on only one or two numbers that I'm going to hit, but since I don't know what I'm going to hit then I think it's a good spread of risk. If I don't want to have the risk of $150 on the table, or if the vig on the outside numbers isn't as good, then I will start on the 6&8, shoot the crossed threes, and then spread to other numbers as my greed guides me

- Bob

Regression wagering works well with an EXIT STRATEGY..

Many players SAY that IF their BUY IN falls by 30%-50% they will pull the plug...

That seems to be just so much BULL SQUASH in actuality from observation

How about monitoring ,between hands,the ($) dollar value of the chips
in YOUR RACK after SEVEN OUTS .

A) Should you have a ($) dollar value( in chips) GREATER than the ($) dollar value before that hand
.....THEN CONTINUE WAGERING AT A LEVEL YOU ARE COMFORTABLE......

B) In the event that the ($) dollar value ( in chips) be a lesser ($) amount STOP HALT WALK

C) There will be future craps games


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