Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:57 pm**

This is an easy money strategy for the penny pinchers. Start small then work your way to the $5 max.
Standby bankroll needed is $3220.00 or less (you will not lose this. It's strictly for firebet hedging)

on new shooter comeout roll
1) Place $5 on the fire.
2) Patiently wait for shooter to make 3 points and establish the 4th point (this is when you start hedging)
3) Lay $120 on 4th point (No worries if shooter makes the point, you still win $125 from the 4 number firebet)
4) Wait for shooter to establish 5th point to the fire (Do not hedge points already made)
5) Lay $600-$1000 on the 5th point (No worries if shooter makes the point, you still win $1250 from the 5 number firebet)
6) Wait for shooter to establish 6th point to the fire (Do not hedge points already made)
5) Lay up to $2000 on the 6th point (No worries if shooter makes the point, you still win $5000 from the 6 number firebet)

A more advanced approach would be (at 4th, 5th, 6th number to fire) to place all the numbers and apply the winnings to the Lay bet.

Example: lets say the 5th point is 10. Lay the 10 for 600 and place $100 on 4/5/9 & $120 on 6/8. Apply all your winnings up to (1000) Lay on the 10.

On an average day you will be faced with hedging 4th number 3-5 times per day, 5th number hedge at least 1-2 a day, and 6th number hedge at least once a day. I risk $100 of my bank roll on strickly betting the fire. Most days I will lose the $100, but when the firebets start coming in, I leave the table with $2k or more in profits.

I find hedging against shooters is much more easier than betting the dark side.

Also remember that in craps its easier to roll a 7 than it is any other number so hedge, hedge, hedge

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:41 pm**

"On an average day you will be faced with hedging 4th number 3-5 times per day, 5th number hedge at least 1-2 a day, and 6th number hedge at least once a day"

Maybe if you have a good few DIs round the table, but are you serious for a random group?

I have to say this is nothing like my experience of what I have seen at a craps table. OK, it is a limited sample but in 7 days of playing craps on my last trip - say 2 to 4 hours per day - I only saw two 4 point fire bets hit all week.

Now I have to say that I only noticed this happening when there was actual money on the bet from somebody at the table. It could have been that if I had done a $5 fire bet on each shooter that the numbers of 4 point and more would have been a lot higher, but are you sure your average day is really like everybody's average day?

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:40 pm**

I've seen three in one day and I've seen a month of Sunday's (literally) where it wasn't hit. Those $5 bets really start to add up. Last casino trip weekend we bet on 71 hands. No fire bets were hit. That would have been $355 lost.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:43 pm**

The other thing that strikes me here is that in laying the 4th point you are giving away all your winnings from the firebet if the 4th point does hit.

I can sense this kind of hedging thing ending up in a deeper and deeper hole given any kind of "average" day

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:48 pm**

Fire-bet Basics

Randomly speaking:

~The odds against making 1 PL-Point is 3.8:1

~The odds against making 2 separate PL-Points is 9.9:1

~The odds against making 3 separate PL-Points is 30:1

~The odds against making 4 separate PL-Points is 113:1.

If you accomplish this with a Fire-bet in action, the casino pays the F-bet off at 25-to-1.

~The odds against making 5 separate PL-Points is 609:1

If you accomplish this with a Fire-bet in action, the casino pays the F-bet off at 250-to-1.

~The odds against making all 6 separate box-number points is 6156:1

If you accomplish this with a Fire-bet in action, the casino pays the F-bet off at 1000-to-1.

How Often Can You Expect to See a Randomly-Tossed Fire-bet Winner?

This is an interesting question for players who bet on every shooter as the dice make their way around the table.

~We know that the odds against making 4 separate PL-Points is 113:1.

Let’s say we are playing at a fairly crowded table with 12 random-rollers.

~On average, we will see one first-tier 25:1 payout about once every 9.4 laps around the table.

~In a one-table pit (or where only one table is open); you’ll see one first-tier 25:1 payout about once every eight-hour shift.

~In a four-table pit where all tables are open and pretty well full, you’ll see one first-tier 25:1 payout about once every two hours.

~On average, we will see one second-tier 250:1 payout about once every 51 laps around the table.

~In a one-table pit (or where only one table is open); you’ll see one second-tier 250:1 payout about once every 42 hours.

~In a four-table pit where all tables are open and pretty well full, you’ll see one second-tier 250:1 payout about once every ten hours.

~On average, we will see one third-tier 1000:1 payout about once every 513 laps around the table.

~In a one-table pit (or where only one table is open); you’ll see one third-tier 1000:1 payout about once every 18 days.

~In a four-table pit where all tables are open and pretty well full, you’ll see one third-tier 1000:1 payout about once every 4.5 days.

Why is it So Hard for a Random-Roller to Make Three or More Different PL-Points?

~A random-roller will lose his entire Fire-bet wager if he makes none, one, two, or three different PL-Point numbers.

Those none, one, two, or three different PL-Point outcomes constitute the following probabilities:

~There is a 59.5% chance that a random-roller won’t make any PL-Point repeaters.

~There is a 26.1% chance that a random-roller will only make one PL-Point repeater.

~There is a 10.1% chance that a random-roller will make two different PL-Point repeaters.

~There is a 3.3% chance that a random-roller will make three different PL-Point repeaters.

~So up until this point, fully 98.94% of the randomly-thrown Fire-bets will fall and never even get to the Fire-bet's first-tier 25:1 payout level.

If that doesn’t give you pause to think about NOT wagering on the Fire-bet when random-rollers are shooting; I don’t know what will.

So let’s see what happens to that ridiculously small number (1.056%) of randomly-thrown hands that do qualify for some level of Fire-bet payout.

~There is a 0.88% chance that a random-roller will make four different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger a first-tier 25:1 Fire-bet payout, if he doesn’t successfully complete his fifth different PL-Point.

~There is a 0.16% chance that a random-roller will make five different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger a second-tier 250:1 Fire-bet payout, if he doesn’t successfully complete his sixth different PL-Point.

~There is a 0.016% chance that a random-roller will make six different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger the third-tier 1000:1 Fire-bet payout.

What does that tell us about the random chances of winning the Fire-bet?

~Making four, five, or six different PL-Points constitutes just 1.056% of the random-probabilities that compose the entirety of the Fire-bet’s outcome spectrum.

When you multiply out the respective Fire-bet payouts for each level; you end up getting about 79.2% of your total Fire-bet investment-money back…and of course the casino's slice of the overall Fire-bet pie is a whopping 20.8%.

How Often Will Fire-Bet Wins Contain Multiple SAME-Number PL-Points?

~When a random-roller successfully reaches his first-tier 25:1 Fire-bet payout level of four different PL-Points, he'll have thrown, on average, a total of 6.4 PL-Point winners...meaning 2.4 of them were from same number repeaters.

~When a random-roller successfully reaches his second-tier 250:1 Fire-bet payout level of five different PL-Points, he'll have thrown, on average, a total of 8.9 PL-Point winners...meaning 3.9 of them were from same number repeaters.

~When a random-roller successfully reaches his third-tier 1000:1 Fire-bet payout level of six different PL-Points, he'll have thrown, on average, a total of 10 PL-Point winners...meaning 4 of them were from same number repeaters.

Again, the Fire-bet is a terrible wager when a random-roller has the dice…but you already know that.

However, in the hands of a skilled shooter, the Fire-bet can often viably produce a fair amount of added-value to your bankroll.

MP

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:01 pm**

Wow... Really
Okay show me a table where 4,5 or 6 to the fire bets are made and I will rake the money in without touching the fire bets

How many hours are you going to sit at a table playing 5 dollars a shooter waiting for the fire bet? how many 5 dollars are you going to lose?
Talk about grinding. You go to the casino at age 35, you leave at age 40. Just read MP's odds of the fire bets hitting.

This strategy will only work at a table with some of the most advance DI's. Sorry bud.. Back to the drawing board for you.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:54 pm**

gargoil wrote:Wow... Really
How many hours are you going to sit at a table playing 5 dollars a shooter waiting for the fire bet? how many 5 dollars are you going to lose?
This strategy will only work at a table with some of the most advance DI's. Sorry bud.. Back to the drawing board for you.

I'm cheap...............When I'm playing with our A/C gang I'll do $3. per shooter not wanting to be the "only" one to miss out on the firebet score. But, if I'm playing lone wolf I'm only betting the fire on myself. You're correct Gargoil at $5 bucks a pop that does add up very quickly. And yes I did miss out on a five fire win from a randy last week at Harrahs Chester.

Aj

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:21 pm**

It’s important to note that in my above post, I was structuring the "odds against" numbers only in terms of the Fire-bet and a random-roller's chances of making one...two...three...four...five...or six different PL-Points in the same hand.

Let me explain:

~We all know that there's about a 40% chance that an individual PL-Point will be repeated (regardless of whether it's the first PL-Point in this hand or the tenth); but when we look at the cumulative chances of it happening; then the odds of it occurring change dramatically.

First let's look at how we arrive at the 40% chance that an individual PL-Point will be repeated.

~A PL-Point of 4 or 10 has a 33.3% chance of being repeated by a random-roller...and a 66.6% chance that it won't.

~A PL-Point of 5 or 9 has a 40% chance of being repeated by a random-roller...and a 60% chance that it won't.

~A PL-Point of 6 or 8 has a 45.5% chance of being repeated by a random-roller...and a 54.5% chance that it won't.

When we take weight-average all of those possible PL-Point repeaters; we arrive at the 40% average likelihood that a PL-Point will be repeated...and a 60% chance that it won't. It's actually 40.5%-to-59.5%, but we usually round it off to 40/60 in general discussion.

Okay, now let's put that into the Fire-bet perspective.

~We know that if we make the first PL-Point but don't repeat the second one; our Fire-bet loses, and if we make our second (but different) PL-Point but not our third, then our Fire-bet still loses. The same holds true if we set and repeat our third different PL-Point, but fail to establish then repeat our fourth.

So when we deconstruct the Fire-bet to find out if it has any value; we have to know exactly how the bet works in terms of random outcome probabilities.

~There is a 59.5% chance that a random-roller won’t make any PL-Point repeaters...and only a 40.5% chance that he will.

For purposes of discussing the Fire-bet however, we have to break it down even further and figure out how many of these random-rollers will go beyond producing more than one PL-Point repeater and get to one of the F-bet payout levels.

So let's break that 40.5% PL-Point win-rate down:

~There is a 26.1% chance that a random-roller will only make one PL-Point repeater, and won't go on to repeat a second different PL-Point.

~There is a 10.1% chance that a random-roller will make two different PL-Point repeaters, but won't go on to repeat a third different PL-Point.

~There is a 3.3% chance that a random-roller will make three different PL-Point repeaters, and won't go on to repeat a fourth different PL-Point.

~So up until this point, fully 98.94% of the randomly-thrown Fire-bets will fall and never even get to the Fire-bet's first-tier 25:1 payout level.

So let’s see what happens to that ridiculously small number (1.056%) of randomly-thrown hands that do qualify for some level of Fire-bet payout.

~There is an 0.88% chance that a random-roller will make four different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger a first-tier 25:1 Fire-bet payout, if he doesn’t go on to successfully complete his fifth different PL-Point.

~There is a 0.16% chance that a random-roller will make five different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger a second-tier 250:1 Fire-bet payout, if he doesn’t go on to successfully complete his sixth different PL-Point.

~There is a 0.016% chance that a random-roller will make six different PL-Point repeaters. That will trigger the third-tier 1000:1 Fire-bet payout.

~Making four, five, or six different PL-Points constitutes just 1.056% of the random-probabilities that compose the entirety of the Fire-bet’s outcome spectrum.

So rest assured that a random-rollers chances of repeating a PL-Point still averages out to around 40%; however, when we look at the Fire-bet, we have to look beyond that number and break it down even further.

MP

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:28 pm**

In replies to many posts, the key is not to shoot for making firebets day after day. The key is to bet against the firebet after the 3rd point is rolled and 4th point established. This is kind of like a side bet. this is where most of the profits start because it's much easier to roll a 7 than it is to roll a number. If you hedge that 4th point 3 times per day, that is an extra 300.00 in your pocket. I know its not much but it adds up over the week and is much more profitable than having a "Real Job"

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:32 pm**

London Shooter wrote:"On an average day you will be faced with hedging 4th number 3-5 times per day, 5th number hedge at least 1-2 a day, and 6th number hedge at least once a day"

Maybe if you have a good few DIs round the table, but are you serious for a random group?

I have to say this is nothing like my experience of what I have seen at a craps table. OK, it is a limited sample but in 7 days of playing craps on my last trip - say 2 to 4 hours per day - I only saw two 4 point fire bets hit all week.

Now I have to say that I only noticed this happening when there was actual money on the bet from somebody at the table. It could have been that if I had done a $5 fire bet on each shooter that the numbers of 4 point and more would have been a lot higher, but are you sure your average day is really like everybody's average day?

You say here you saw 4 Firebet points made but did you see where the puck went before 7 out?
If the comeout roll went to a new point (5th point) that's a grand opportunity to lay 600-1000 for easy profit on both sides.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:59 pm**

CrapsGenius wrote:In replies to many posts, the key is not to shoot for making firebets day after day. The key is to bet against the firebet after the 3rd point is rolled and 4th point established. This is kind of like a side bet. this is where most of the profits start because it's much easier to roll a 7 than it is to roll a number. If you hedge that 4th point 3 times per day, that is an extra 300.00 in your pocket. I know its not much but it adds up over the week and is much more profitable than having a "Real Job"

When I roll with AC crew I only saw two 4 point fire bets made. I rather make my money while the fire bet is being made. Leave the betting systems to the professionals please.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:17 pm**

$nakeeye$ wrote:SoS -

YOU have only begun YOUR journey with the " AC Crew " -

Sometimes it gets better - sometimes it gets worse !

BUT - do NOT hedge - unless BB is looking for the 9 for his 6th number for the F/B !

$...eE..$

SoSerious wrote:
When I roll with AC crew I only saw two 4 point fire bets made. I rather make my money while the fire bet is being made. Live the betting systems to the professionals please.

SnakeEyes,

Its always good with the A.C. crew. We make money even when someone just make one point but throws alot of numbers. I just think the betting strategy that CrapsGenius post will not work in in live play. Who is going to wait for
a 4 point fire to be made?

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:25 pm**

You just have to be patient!

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:42 pm**

gargoil wrote:Wow... Really? How many hours are you going to sit at a table playing 5 dollars a shooter waiting for the fire bet?

This was my exact thought. Who has the frickin' time to sit through all the random rollers, rhythm rollers, occasional DI wannabes, and actual DI's for an opportunity to score on a fire bet? To supplement your craps game, I have no problem with a fire bet. But to play only the fire bet? Ridiculous IMHO.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:03 pm**

SoSerious wrote:
$nakeeye$ wrote:SoS -

YOU have only begun YOUR journey with the " AC Crew " -

Sometimes it gets better - sometimes it gets worse !

BUT - do NOT hedge - unless BB is looking for the 9 for his 6th number for the F/B !

$...eE..$

SoSerious wrote:
When I roll with AC crew I only saw two 4 point fire bets made. I rather make my money while the fire bet is being made. Live the betting systems to the professionals please.
SnakeEyes,

Its always good with the A.C. crew. We make money even when someone just make one point but throws alot of numbers. I just think the betting strategy that CrapsGenius post will not work in in live play. Who is going to wait for
a 4 point fire to be made?

There are a couple other shooters besides myself that will stay at the table for more than 4-6 hrs waiting for the firebet. I felt bad for the one guy there that played all night and never caught anything till 7:45am the other day when I showed up, placed a 5.00 chip on the fire and the guy made 5 numbers and 7'd out. We both made a very fast 500.00 from the hedge. Just gotta be there at the right time I guess. but it's not luck, if you have patience, you can really cash in on this.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:19 pm**

CrapsGenius wrote: There are a couple other shooters besides myself that will stay at the table for more than 4-6 hrs waiting for the firebet. I felt bad for the one guy there that played all night and never caught anything till 7:45am the other day when I showed up, placed a 5.00 chip on the fire and the guy made 5 numbers and 7'd out. We both made a very fast 500.00 from the hedge. Just gotta be there at the right time I guess. but it's not luck, if you have patience, you can really cash in on this.

No sir you made a very fast $500.00. The other poor schmuck was there for more than 6 hours just to make $500.00.
There are many people on this forum who can tell you how to make $5000.00 for playing 4-6 hours.
Just because you got lucky and hit 5 points when you got to the table that doesn't mean you invented a system. Actually I take that back. You did invent a system. It just sucks.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:35 pm**

gargoil wrote: Actually I take that back. You did invent a system. It just sucks.

It is an honorable and admirable trait to be able to tell it like it is.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:01 pm**

If you hedge that 4th point 3 times per day, that is an extra 300.00 in your pocket. I know its not much but it adds up over the week and is much more profitable than having a "Real Job"

Congrats on your $500. If only life was always so easy. Although it feels good to see the path you have described, it will not be paved with gold for you. You are in a period of variance that when looked at from one angle appears to offer the keys to the Golden Goose's cage. Unfortunately, this period of variance will fade. You then will be faced with countless hours of waiting. Don't wait. Life is to short. However, if you so choose to do so, more power to you. That was what America used to be about..........free choice.

Good Luck in whatever you finally decide.

Golfer

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:32 am**

Hi CrapsGenius - I actually only saw two 4 point firebets made all week. Sorry, don't recall where the puck went afterwards and if the 5th point ever got setup in either case.

But what the mad professor states about the likely occurrence of said bet is much more in line with my "average" day on my experience from my last long trip to the tables:

"Let’s say we are playing at a fairly crowded table with 12 random-rollers.

~On average, we will see one first-tier 25:1 payout about once every 9.4 laps around the table. "

I just can't see enough opportunity for all your losing $5 bets to be offset by enough hedging opportunities.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:12 am**

Let's see if we can continue to thump this deceased equine a few more times from a slightly different perspective.

~The chance of making 0 PL-Points...0.594522...that equals 59.45% of all randomly-thrown hands.

Now remember the chances of making one or more PL-Points is always 40.55%; but for the purposes of the Fire-bet valuation, we have to look deeply into that 40.55% figure to find out exactly how it breaks down.

In this case, we have to determine how many will reach the first-stage four-different-PL-Points threshold...how many will reach the second-stage five-different-PL-Points threshold...and how many will reach the third-stage six-different-PL-Points threshold.

So let's do that; let's break down that 40.5% PL-Point repeater figure:

~Chance of making 1 PL-Point (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.260503...that equates to 26.05% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 26.05 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-3.84 hands.

~Chance of making 2 different PL-Points (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.101038...that equates to 10.10% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 10.10 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-9.9 hands.

~Chance of making 3 different PL-Points (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.033364...that equates to 3.34% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 3.34 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-29.4 hands.

~Chance of making 4 different PL-Points (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.008776...that equates to 0.878% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 0.878 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-114 hands.

~Chance of making 5 different PL-Points (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.001633...that equates to 0.163% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 0.163 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-613 hands.

~Chance of making all 6 different PL-Points (in the Fire-bet context, and not getting beyond that) is...0.000164...that equates to 0.016% of all randomly-thrown hands.

If we divide 0.016 into 100, we find that this equates to 1-in-6,250 hands.

Let's add all of that up:

0.594522
0.260503
0.101038
0.033364
0.008776
0.001633
0.000164
= 1.00

That's how we calculate the probability of hitting six different PL-Points in the same hand.

Again, we know that the average PL-Point win-rate is 40.5%, but when we are discussing a 'conditional wager' like the Fire-bet; that number has very little meaning in telling us how frequently a random-roller will produce enough different PL-Point winners to produce a F-bet payoff...and that is why we have to look much deeper into that average 40.5% PL-Point win-rate.

MP

Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hedging the Fire all the way to the bank

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