Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

We used to talk a bit about using the Doey Don't to convert a $25 game to a $5 game. Not too difficult to do if the casino will allow the bet. Play $25 on the Pass Line and $30 on the Don't - or vice versa - then lay or take odds as you see fit. Here are some variants you could use for hedge play on lower limit games.

Let's say it's a $5 game. Play $5 on the Pass Line and $15 on the Don't Pass. Yeah, you have $10 exposuer on the Come Out. Once the point is established take double odds on the PL ($10). This sort of sounds like a play old SIA might like.

Thoughts? Any of you play any Doey Don't variants? Successes? Let's hear 'em.

I like that play. Once you get past the CO, you can't lose.

I'm testing the Heavy 7 combined with an exponential odds variant right now. The first book had both winning. The second book is 1/2 done and the EO is winning twice as much money as H7 is losing. I think I can tweek the H7 to work better with EO, but I haven't tried messing with it yet- just working on some base results first.

As an update, to my ongoing experiment combining the EOBS2 (exponential odds bootstrapper 2) with a don't strategy for a hedge. I've abandoned the Heavy 7. It didn't work due to too many CO sevens and elevens. After that I tried a 4 step negative progression on the DP 1,3,8,19. That didn't work either due to come out sevens and elevens. Then I tried going 5,3,1 on the DP. That was a better hedge to protect my comebets when the seven didn't show on the comeout, but that one didn't work either.

A million years ago, I messed around with a hopping sevens progression. I abandoned it when my head nearly exploded all over Tunica due to the pressure caused by squeezing my sphincter so tightly. I'm thinking its time to revisit and tweak that progression. I really only need that hedge for about 3-12 rolls. By then the EO is generating some repeaters that reduce the exposure.

I'm convinced that EO works. The problem is the volatility due to the extreme exposure while waiting for repeaters. At the $10 level, the max exposure possible before a repeater is $60 x 6 numbers = $360. It doesn't happen often, but when you are building to a promising hand, and have a bunch of numbers with comebets and odds up there, and then shite the bed and toss that seven, it's damaging to the psyche as well as the BR. A hedge can reduce or eliminate that loss. So it comes down to either laying a number(s) and/or hopping the sevens.

To hedge $360 in exposure is expensive- a $72 hopping 7s pays $384. To lay a number is much less vig (5%) but that can get scary, as in "I'll lay the 4 for $700 please" Continuous DCs might be part of the answer since they have the lowest house advantage. I'll try a partial hedge using a combo of DP and hopping 7's once the exposure gets uncomfortable.

Here's what I'm going to try next for the darkside hedge-
Start the hand with a $50 DP hedged with a $9 hop 7 (pays $48 and down), replace as needed.
Once I have 4 more numbers than have been payed for ($240 worth of exposure)
I will hop 7's for
$12 pays $64 and down ($43 profit, not including the $50 DP)
$15 pays $80 and down ($44 profit)
$21 pays $112 and down ($55 profit)
$30 hop Pays $160 and down (82 profit)
$ 30 hop pays $160 ($52 profit)
$30 hop pays $160 ($22 profit)
$36 hop pays $192 ($9 profit)
quit- If you lose the $50 DP and all the hops you have lost $233 on hedges, possibly more if you lose the first DP and replace it. This is now a hand thats at least 12 rolls long and has a good chance to be making money on the right side portion of your betting.

Americraps, I have read with interest all your recent stuff on exponential odds and would agree this could in theory work for some providing they have the bank roll and a cast iron stomach to endure the huge volatility.

Of course the flip side is, if you start having to employ hedges, then inevitably you must be costing yourself money. As above you have a lot of money on the hop 7s open to a lot of vig each time you hedge.

I guess the bottom line is if "the exposure gets uncomfortable" then it isn't really a bet you should be having.

Bit like the MP 204 across play. All well and good, but in the real world my stomach would be in knots exposing myself to that much of an initial hit on the 7, therefore I can't make that kind of play.

Hi LS- Yes the exposure gets a little uncomfortable when you have $360 out there and no repeaters, that's what the hedge is for. I'm trying to make the hedge profitable on its own, not an expense.

Hi 6 shooter- Right now, I'm playing a $10 game, and whats painful is a CO Yo. I don't have a hedge for that currently. I lose $49 net. $50 on the DP plus $9 hopping seven and win $10 on PL.

I'll be playing a two-hit and press version of SIA's One Hit Can't Miss this coming weekend in Biloxi. $25 DP. Get a point established. Place the six and eight for $24 each. Collect the first hit on the six or eight. On the second hit collect $10 and press the number that rolls to $42. Next hit on that number collect $50 for $1. Next hit on the sister number and it goes to $42 as well. Playing my entry and exit keys - at the first indicator I'll take everything down except the point. If I've collected more than $50 from my place action I'll lay $30 odds on the DP. If the hand continues with no negative indicators I'll spread out on the third $50 for $1 hit and place the dominant number (other than the six and eight) - at $35 on the five or nine and $25 on the four or ten.

I'm interested to see what the outcome of this is Heavy.

heavy wrote:I'll be playing a two-hit and press version of SIA's One Hit Can't Miss this coming weekend in Biloxi. $25 DP. Get a point established. Place the six and eight for $24 each. Collect the first hit on the six or eight. On the second hit collect $10 and press the number that rolls to $42. Next hit on that number collect $50 for $1. Next hit on the sister number and it goes to $42 as well. Playing my entry and exit keys - at the first indicator I'll take everything down except the point. If I've collected more than $50 from my place action I'll lay $30 odds on the DP. If the hand continues with no negative indicators I'll spread out on the third $50 for $1 hit and place the dominant number (other than the six and eight) - at $35 on the five or nine and $25 on the four or ten.

That seems to work pretty good, 1 hit on the 6 or 8 and then a 7 out your even. 2 questions on this play,, what do you do if the point is a 6 or 8 IE take up your bet or reduce the amount placed on the sister number,,, and 2nd, say point is 5 and you get your don't pass knocked off do you increase the don't pass bet on the next come out, I have always liked raising the initial bets on dp or dc instead of odds since it is even money, especially if a couple points have hit in a row.
Thanks
Greg

Greg: You still place the 6/8 even if one of them is the point. Here, you hope for a hit on the one not the point. If I get a hit on the one not the point, I take it down then, waiting for the result as I am already ahead so cannot get hurt. You do not have to do this as you can hope the hand develops. Heavy is making a transition move as the hand develops. If there is a better way to transition from the don't to the right side with zero exposure, I haven't seen it.

It looks like you can make some $$ on a long hand, while covering your butt against a short hand.

SHOOTITALL, on your don't pass best,, at 25 $, if it gets knocked off on next come out do you raise the best or is the whole system a flat bet each time on the come out.

For my part, just as a rule if you get knocked off the DP by a come out 7 or 11, I do not make another bet on that shooter that trip around the table. Grafstein 101.

Greg: Short answer is NO. There is no point in it. One hit recovers a lost CO. Heavy has it as I do, most of the time, one loss per shooter. Here, it's intuition as to the shooter. If I have seen him shoot before in This session, then I make a guess but mostly I'm with Grafstein, one loss per shooter. (It is amazing how many craps players are just plain unlucky, so if you see one, take advantage, that is a gift from the craps gods)
Now, on increasing your bet. This works at any amount as long as they are approximately the same. For instance, $50 DP, then $48 6/8. You still have only one bet at risk at any time: On the CO, one bet. After a point established, one bet at risk. I have not figured out a way to get it less than that, but, maybe a board member can as this board is just full of very smart people, excluding me self.

How do you feel about laying something on the comeout to protect the DP? Are you working the 6 & 8 on the comeout?

Americraps wrote:How do you feel about laying something on the comeout to protect the DP? Are you working the 6 & 8 on the comeout?

Check out this recent thread where Heavy chimed in on protecting the DP

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4260

Yeah, I believe that unless you are betting at the upper end of your risk tolerance level that you should forego the hedges. Trim your hedges and you'll grow your profits.

OK, thanks guys

I saw a bloke only last night stood right next to me playing $100 DP who would have benefited from Grafstein 101.

$100 DP, 7 ouch. He doesn't reload. Next roll 3 craps. He's bitching and reloads. Next roll 7., double ouch. Similar happened more than once on the come-out. Our man was not happy.

I guess consistency is the key. Second guessing and chasing will have you digging one hell of a hole.

Grafstien also emphasizes parlaying all craps numbers on the CO to overcome the CO 7/11s

Deep lob 11 is done- SRR of 6.86. EOBS2 had a healthy win of $4686, led by a 43 roll hand (my first in months) that netted $2615 of profit. The hedge lost $710. My throw is looking good with 45.97% on axis and 12.5% primaries vs 10% DPs.

I'm going to define my hedge because it is morphing as I get a handle on things.

I start with a $50DP and that is hedged by a $9 hopping sevens on the comeout. I'm considering dumping the hop and laying a number till apoint is established, but haven't done so yet. If this gets knocked off by repeating a point I will replace it two more times only. By then I've made 3 points, and I shouldn't be needing a hedge for that hand. If the DP gets knocked off by a 7 or yo, I replace it indefinitely.


If I get 4 numbers established with zero repeaters, I then begin a hopping 7s progression. If I have any repeaters, I don't begin the hopping 7s. Once begun, I complete the entire 7 hop progression unless I throw a seven. The progression goes like this $12, $15, $21, $30, $30, $30, $36 quit. This is not a complete hedge, but it lessons the blow of the dramatic drawdowns that are common with EO.

I have used this hedge for 3 books now. I started with $2K BR and it is currently $4196.
I have used EOBS2 for 10 books now starting with $10K, BR is currently at $11,233. This is pretty poor performance, but I blame it on my shooting. I'm surprised I'm up at all- here are the SRRs for each book.
6.61,
5.85,
6.55,
5.67,
5.72,
5.29,
5.41,
5.54,
5.76
6.86 for an average of 5.926. That's pretty bad and I still have a rightside profit.

Time will tell whether this hedge is just wasting money or whether it is worth doing. In three books it has been profitable, but 2 of those books were darksiders dream books.