Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Love it!

Ha! I think I spotted a trend in my answers.

al_falcons wrote:Love it!

+1

Almost a trend. First one is debatable. All others the same.

1. A bouncy table is beneficial to Don't Players?
True False

2. If a seven has not been rolled in 6 rolls, it has a greater chance of rolling on the next roll than 1/6
True False

3. There are particular dice combinations (like the hard 10) that are harbingers (indicators) of a seven rolling?
True False

4. If a string of 18 rolls occurs where no 7 appears, more 7's have to occur in the future for probability to hold true?
True False

5. Hedging a wager usually reduces the House Advantage?
True False

First one is false also.

Noah

acpa has it right a boucy table changes nothing in a random game its random. Sevens come in a random game when they dam well please. Dice off the table simply hogwash. Random random random.

The seven is due ok when when is it due. Its coming yes its coming but when??? Heres a better question more inportant then due theory is HOW THEORY. I wish i knew how to underline that.

Lets say three 30 roll hands roll by three shooters back to back.That seven is due that seven is due really?
next guy goes point out next guy makes two passes back to back next two shooters go pso next guy makes 4 pass.

This goes on and on your back to the chop THE CHOP eats both side with equal destroying force. Dark siders get ate up with come out sevens and 4&10s as a point made. Right siders as you know get chopped all to pieces.

No one knows whats going to happen in a random game no one.

GREAT idea/quiz!

I answered TRUE to all of them because I am the best craps player ever...

Ok Irish, ill bite. Since probabilities are based on an infinite number of random trials, it seems to me that every time there is a string of random trials where the seven appears less often than one out of six, there needs to be an equal number of random trials somewhere out in the future where the seven appears more often than one out of six, just to keep the random world in perfect harmony. That's why I answered true to #4. In the DI world, hopefully every string of 18 trials will roll without the appearance of a seven. I didn't fall into the true trap on any of the other false statements.

Hofnaja,

Did you ever consider that there might have been 18 rolls earlier with an offsetting number of sevens, or maybe 300 rolls later that would be rolls that balance out the current rolls.

Noah

I answered true to no. 4 too. Thanks for the explanation . . interesting.

I only picked true on the first question. That is from personal observation.
I have seen it happen many times.

irish wrote:Whoever mentioned a "trend" in the answers is correct. All answers are false.

So what did I win? An all expense paid trip to Las Vegas in the ARIA Sky Suites and a $5K cash bankroll?

Let me guess...the answer is still trending the same way.

I have seen a table with new felt and new rubber. Nobody could make a point while I was there. It was about two hours of play. The dice would not behave. The Don'ts did very well.

I know this is just a small sample size.

vegasfan2010 wrote:I have seen a table with new felt and new rubber. Nobody could make a point while I was there. It was about two hours of play. The dice would not behave. The Don'ts did very well.

I know this is just a small sample size.

This is exactly Irish's point. We "want" to say that it is "new-dice", or "new-felt" or "new-rubber" or "bouncy-table" that is causing the sevens to appear at just the right time for the Don't players. But there is no evidence that any of those things are having an impact. It is just our "observation" that we THINK one of those things must be the cause.

Here is another way to think of it... in order for the Don't players to benefit from this physical behavior, they must also get the "right" combination of rolls.... in other words they have to get their DP and/or DC established and they need the seven before their number gets picked. Are we saying that a bouncy table leads to the perfect storm of point then seven? If that is true (and it is NOT), I want to know which table characteristics lead to getting point-point?

The point is (NPI), it is just short term variance being attributed to cosmic alignment.

P.S. Bankerdude80: Now that was some funny stuff there!

I answered false on all but I bet a year ago I wouldn't have. I've been though some spells where I had a strong allegiance to certain "indicators." But after pretty consistent roll tracking for the last six months the data supports none of them. These days when the sister number rolls right after the point or a seven rolls right after two craps numbers I'll say "Dang. I sure do notice it when that happens..."

Noah, Irish...yeah, I forgot...infinity includes the past as well as the future. LOL... that crappy little 18 tosses is infinitesimal. So, I'll just keep trying to roll those 18 tosses with no seven, knowing that whether I am influencing or not on any particular day,I am not risking any catacltsmic disruption of probabilistic harmony.

Thanks Irish, interesting discussion.

Hoof

Well, I'm going to question question # 1 about a bouncy table.
Is this a random roller or a dice setter? If it's a random roller - all rolls are random. If it's a dice setter, than yes, I do believe the bounce affects the DI's rolls in a negative way.