Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I was up early and had a chance to play 4 or 5 hours before my son's soccer game today so I played my most recent dark side strategy that I am really starting to like which is two DC bets with odds unless it's a 6/8 then keep going through the DC till I get two numbers not 6/8 (I still travel the 6/8, I just don't lay odds).

Things started off really well as the table was as cold as an Eskimos ass. Literally two or three rolls on different numbers then 7-out. When it did start to heat up even a little the shooter was tossing a couple numbers for me to get behind then making his point (which I was not playing) and then throwing a 7 on his next come out roll. It really was a table I should have made a killing on, the type of table the dark siders dream about. Then, my stubbornness/greed ruined things a bit. A new shooter walked up and just started picking off numbers left and right, this was probably a 50+ toss hand that I let knock me off 6 or more numbers I was laying behind. When he finally 7'd out I thought you never see two big rolls like that back to back and proceeded to let the next shooter knock me off 5 numbers on a relatively short roll in comparison.

Had I just stuck to the rule I hear other dark siders use about not letting a shooter knock you off more than two points I would have made a ton today. I still left up for the session, but nowhere near where I should have.

Is not letting a shooter cost you more than two bets really the golden rule for dark siders?

I ain't a mathmetician even in my dreams, but I don't rarely leave my Lays up after two hits.

Most of the time I down the Lays on a two-hitter simply because it's costing more to win less and my psyche can't stand two 5-6x Lays get pummeled consecutively, considering my minimal buy-in ($5-700). There's absolutely no statistical logic to my play; it's pure dollar management. If the shooter makes three points I might come back, and I'd certainly start DC'ing and maxing my odds if he was on a 4th or 5th point, but that valley in between the 2nd and 4th point, that's "No Man's Land" to me. In that sense, I'll follow the 10% per shooter allotment (10 shooter money limit) pretty strictly.

Oddly enough, on my last visit I got hammered by two consecutive shooters--"hammered" by my standards--two shooters hit consecutive box Lays and held the dice for >20 minutes each (on a 4-shooter table). After the second shooter had held the dice for about 10 minutes I got off the Don'ts and placed $132 inside, regressed after two hits to $64 across w/ $5 Come that went to $20 Odds, took two more hits and regressed again to $26 across and ended up a fair amount (by my standards). Sometimes it's all 'sychronistic' luck. From my experience, the "streaks" within the (long-term) daily rolls are mostly very short streaks; it could have gone your way (Don't) all day, and usually does.

Unless you run into a DI, you're probably betting correctly that the averages are with the house. There's damn few DI's out there; I've only seen four in 2-1/2 years of play, and I've only played at the same table with two in all that time; and one never got past PPPSO in 5 tries. There's TONS of guys who think their big buy-in qualifies 'em and just a few less whose pretty dice rotation boost their egos but damn few can hit the same spot with the same predictable finish to skew the house odds with any "influence" that I've ever seen. (As I've said before--show me a "DI" and lemme see him bet his talents on the Horn some way for a profit. Ain't many guys doing it in 'real money' denominations.) I'd bet Don'ts forever with the right buy-in, but the caveat is, I think one has to keep ready for the intermittent 'streak'. My belief is, if RR luck is really goose-stepping over me on one side, I might as well switch sides and hope the RR luck holds; but it's tough breakin' past the rule of not betting the RR's... that roll's gotta really look like the table's changin'. Heck, who can tell with an RR--at the least, I probably would have stopped laying in your scenario. The new ideas I'm tryin' to follow--when it's in my rack, it's not money I'm "up", it's MY money. If I walk out without it, it's just "free play". Those thoughts keep me really cheeep when I'm up a good amount.

I got a long wind.

Played Saturday and did not heed the 2 hits rule. Paid the price and left cursing. Chase and you die. It really is that simple. $5Bill will tell you. DF will tell you.

Golfer

Golfer wrote:Played Saturday and did not heed the 2 hits rule. Paid the price and left cursing. Chase and you die. It really is that simple. $5Bill will tell you. DF will tell you.

Golfer

I hear you, I really do. I guess I just have a hard time believing the answer really is THAT simple. I'm not saying this is the Holy Grail and the pathway to riches and glory, but as someone who is not an action junkie and just looking to grind out a small profit where I can I hate to think the answer was in front of me all along.

This does seem to be a core truth and I think it's applicable to both sides. One of the hardest things to do is to STOP trying to win anything on this hand. For some reason, my brain wants to make up for losses on THIS roll. It just seems like the table OWES my something back after taking something away. But rather than taking down my placed bets or removing my DC odds, I place MORE numbers or PRESS the odds. I know I shouldn't. I know it's a bad play. But I get angry that my choices are not earning me a profit. I burn for SOME kind of win to offset the losses and that feeling just overpowers the logical side of my brain. I'll say to myself "one more hit then I'm down." But if it does hit there's probably a 70% chance I'll then say "OK, this time I really mean it. Just one more hit and I'm down for sure. Really."

I am greatly improved from a year ago. But I still suffer from not being able to yield when I get that feeling the end might be near. I'll be a better player if I can ever consistently learn how to temporarily lay down my weapons and "Live to fight another day. "

I don't know what the experts would say, but there's a "psychology" to gambling and the gambler and the craps player (who gives any creedence to the concept of DI'ing).

I think it's *very* tough to stop betting a shooter, much less step away from the table, when the action's hot--not the dice, but the air of something 'happening'--a feeling or hope (attributed to "The Odds") that a reversal is in order, or, conversely, that the dice are rolling well. I think, the more our personality enjoys the act of gambling, the harder it is to acknowledge this psychological need when we're in the middle of the act. (I'm not sure I've expressed that well enough to be clear; I hope so.)

For most of us, the trip to the casino takes enough time and scheduling arrangement that we wanna make the trip "last" as a concept of time. To sit and watch idly or leave doesn't fit that need. But it's not the only reason we can't stop. There's also the whirlpool of depression... sometimes it can be very subtle, other times, it might be staring one in the face and in that moment of "I don't give a shipt/Oh, what the hell", one might decide beyond financial or emotional prudence to "double down" and bet 'anyway' even in the light of our own realizations that things aren't going well (emotionally). That 'what the hell, I'll bet' is the our psychological self-control giving in to the 'action'. Somewhere in there, there's a euphoria, depression and all, that gives a satisfaction, no matter how minor, that justifies to us the decision to keep playing. I find it the hardest thing within my personality or character to deny at the moment of action.

A couple comments were an epiphany to me and helped me discover my motives for 'waylaying my self control'. I didn't know I needed the action. REALLY. Sounds dumb as hell, yes? But that dealer's advice--"if you don't walk out with it in your pocket, it's just 'free play' " really struck home. The other was, to change my thinking--my concept of "my money". Used to be I played with the same 'abandon' as everyone else--"lemme play (lose) this last $10". That's the whole point of my other post, "An old lesson... ending a session"
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2706
--learning to regard ALL the money in the rack as MINE, not "my money and my winnings". They're NOT two separate allotments. Once they're won, if I don't keep'm they're free play. That idea drilled home the stark purpose for being at the table--I'm here on this forum to learn how to gain an edge--betting scheme, money management, dice "control", all of it, to further wins, not because I like to gamble, but because I want to make money. Maybe it's an unattainable goal. But if it is, I'm trimming my losses enough to make the endeavor worth the effort. And I think THAT's where we, as casino patrons have to delineate ourselves and our motives from "gamblers".

I've made some real progress in the last 10 sessions--I've been up 7 times and walked each time just because I was 'way ahead because of one shooter--not because of having been convinced that the table turned. I was ahead on five of those occasions more than 100% on my buy-in. Used to be, I'd give 'myself' another chance at greed. I've finally proven to myself I can leave at a peak moment; now I'm seriously considering the wisdom and experience of others who council me to allot a small portion to milking the table's success if possible. If I do, I'll know it's a different kind of decision than the rote of playing because I 'anticipated being here'. There is a strong element of 'the need for action' that perpetuates our attendance at the table--if there wasn't, we'd be willing to make bets on events that don't resolve immediately--next year's Super Bowl, this year's World Series, a mutual fund, etc. Maybe we do make those kinds of bets, too, but it's plain that the urge to attend a crap table isn't just to observe. There aren't a lot of threads or posts from craps devotees who enjoying "observing".

I think everyone here on this forum struggles with the need, too--some are more willing to devote time to looking for an edge--be it a betting scheme, dice rotation, a money management plan--but a discipline to structure their understanding of the game and the logic of statistics doesn't change or influence any control over the need for action. It's the hardest thing to control at the table--IF we can even feel it take us over.

Very well said Dork. That's me to a tee. I can tell when "it" takes over, but I still want to stay. If it weren't for L, the sirens call would have killed my bankroll many times over.

Well it's not really that simple, but limiting losses to 1 or 2 per shooter on the don't will generally give you a good chance of walking away a winner unless the table is really hot. It is not a very exciting way to play though. It also takes a lot of discipline to limit bets to 1 or 2 per shooter, especially when you have a couple of shooters knock you off with a quick point, you leave your money in the rack and then they PSO on the next come out.

Speaking of discipline, mine has gotten pretty good over the years but sometimes I just want to kick myself for sticking to my guns. I went yesterday and just felt in a don't kind of mood. When I play the don't, I use a naked DP and one DC and if one gets knocked off I will lay odds on the remaining bet. If both get knocked off I will transition to the right side on that shooter. In 3 hours, I managed to win the 2 naked bets only twice. I did end up positive for the day but not by much. This was thanks to quite a few come out 7's for my DC bets and a few rolls that I made money on on the right side after my don't bets were knocked off. This was one of the hottest tables I've seen in years....no monster rolls but almost everyone's rolls were 10+ and there were only 2 PSO's (one of them mine, lol).

I do the Dice Doctor`s one loss per shooter, but I am not one that just has to be in on the action. I play the Darkside one loss per shooter and never deviate from that. That way I don`t have any need to second guess myself.

I was actually playing one loss per shooter before I knew who the Dice Doctor was . The reason I played that way was because of a very, very small bankroll.

Some players are more interested in building up their bankrolls instead of preserving them.

I`m more interested in preservation than expansion. That sounds stupid and doesn`t make sense but it works for me.

The key is --ONE LOSS PER SHOOTER!!!! Patience and Discipline.