The "Freak", A disciplined press/regress betting pattern
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 1:15 pm
After our last trip to the casino I made a few notes about what I hoped to do differently next time. Some of my thoughts were:
1) The CO is sort of like a game all unto it's self yet I often just try to survive it. Rather than just surviving it, how might I take advantage of the CO for profit?
2) I want to take better advantage of streaks. I hate seeing four 9s in a hand but I'm not on them. How do I get on a streak/trend early?
3) Outside numbers often come in bunches. How do I use the outside and stop always clinging to the 6 & 8?
4) I need to have the nerve to trust my shooting with an initial investment and then regress once bets are paid for. How can I do this on my bankroll and typical $600 buy-in? The plan must include what I would adjust if the first hand goes well versus poorly.
5) What can I do to leave less on the table? Why did I lose money on that 6 - 9 roll hand that paid me several times? Why am I always clinging to the hope that the next roll will yield my hero number and pay me big. Why do I think I need to have 3 - 4 placed numbers up in order to have a chance at a hit? How can I balance the desire to keep pressing with the knowledge that the devil is always gonna show so be sure to take some profit.
6) I like structure to a point. I do want some freedom to make choices but I also like rules that keep me from having to think about every choice.
I started thinking about a betting pattern designed to satisfy the above. PLUS many thanks to L for the idea of getting paid on EVERY roll. The basic rules are:
1) Catch streaks from the start and stay on them
2) Parlay the CO
3) Across and regress after two hits.
4) Stay up on hit numbers to catch a streak.
5) Auto-regress on non-paying rolls to ALWAYS get paid every roll
The play in detail. On a $5 table:
The Comeout:
Put $10 on the PL with a $1 any craps. The goal of the CO is to catch a streak of 7/11s or craps. That's why the PL bet is larger than minimum and why there is always a craps check. Not to protect the PL, but to be there from the beginning if a streak of horn numbers shows. The protection of the PL is a positive side effect. I won't chase a horn mid hand, but I will chase them on the CO.
1st roll: A) If 7 or 11 rolls parlay the win minus a $3 3-way craps check. So PL would become $17. Try to roll 7/11 again. B) If craps rolls replace the $10 PL and press to a $3 3-way in addition to the $1 craps. Try to roll craps again.
2nd roll. A) If 7 - 11 rolls again take $23 profit ($17 + $7 - $1) and regress to the original bet of $10 PL and $1 any craps. If craps rolls after the first roll of 7/11 press to a $6 3-way and put up a $10 PL. B) If craps repeats after an initial craps roll press to $6 3-way and $10 PL.
3rd roll. Try to hit whatever side is streaking again. Always press the craps indefinitely. Always press the 7/11 once and then lock up the profit of the second hit minus the $3 3-way.
After a point is established:
1) Place $52-54 across and single odds on the point. The goal now is to get two hits and then regress to a level that puts you in a net gain position for the hand, hopefully with three numbers working. So let's say the point is 5 and the next two rolls are 4 - 6. You have +$18 +$14 to work with. Your PL is $10 so that leaves $22. Place the 4 and 6 for $5 each and put $6 odds on the point. You are now +$6 no matter what. If you are feeling really good then place $10 on the 4 or $10 odds on the 5. But NO Matter what, do not toss again unless you are net positive. You can't press the 6 to $12 because that leaves you only even. That's the rule.
1A) If the first roll after the point is established is a 7-out. Take your lumps and start over. Volatility is gonna happen. If it happens 3 times in a row, quit, regroup and reset. Try later in the day or another trip. If it happens a few times keep trying but DON'T PRESS the across bet after a loss. No chasing. Give it a chance to work.
1B) If the first roll after the point is established is a horn, remove half of the money at risk. Either regress to a single unit across or remove 3 numbers. What you remove is your choice but a non-paying number on this first roll means CAUTION. It brings you 1 roll closer to the inevitable 7-out with no gain so far and no potential streak either. Live to fight another day. Regress. If the next roll is also a horn then take it all down. No, the horn repeater doesn't mean the seven is due but a primary goal of the strategy is to catch a streak from the beginning. You just missed a horn streak. The dice were out of sync with this play. Live to fight another day. Take it all down and try to bring home the point.
2) If you stayed up after a craps roll on the first roll after the point was set, and then the second roll is a good box number but you are no longer on that number due to cautionary regression, stay up for one more roll to see if you can get a hit. Shift towards the number that hit or stay put, your choice just don't increase your bets. If a non-paying box number rolls yet again then you must come down. If a paying number rolls rack it and roll again. If you get the second hit regress to net pos. Excellent you achieved a major step in the sequence without even being across. That's great. However if a non paying number roll here take this hand as a one-hit-and-down hand. Too choppy. Live to fight another day.
3) Once you are in net pos position you are hoping for a repeat hit on one of your numbers. If that happens you can either press or rack it. Your choice. Use your gut for this call. Full press. Spread out to more numbers. Take it all as profit. This is a flexible point in the strategy and allows you to exercise your brain and grow into a good hand. But, on every hit you should be at least racking a few dollars. Full press that 6 to $12 and rack $1. Full press a $10 four to $25 but rack $3. Never power-press and go backwards in your rack. Yes' it's only a few dollars but it's more about the discipline than the money. Use the discipline of this play to stay on track. Some things are flexible, this is not.
4) If the first roll after you regress is a horn number you must regress one unit somewhere. Reduce you odds or a placed bet or take a placed bet down. For example you set the 5 then rolled a 4 and 6. You regressed to $5 on 4, $6 on 6 and $10 PL with $10 odds. Next roll is 2. Now you can either take down the 4 or 6 or reduce your odds on the 5 to $6.
5) If the first roll after you regress is a box number but doesn't pay you can stay up one more roll. Move your bets or stay put just don't put any more $ on the table. For example you set the 5 then rolled a 4 and 6. You regressed to $5 on 4, $6 on 6 and $10 PL with $10 odds. Next roll is 9. You don't get paid but you get to stay up for one more roll. Leave things, or maybe move the 4 to 9 and toss again.
6) From here on out you will ALWAYS regress after any non-paying roll. No matter what. You can press anytime you get paid, but any roll of the dice that doesn't pay in winnings must pay via regression. I like to take down the placed number that has hit last, or maybe reduce odds on the point. This is an automatic safeguard that forces you to get some additional profit if the hand is going nowhere. Yes, it might also mean you regress down to just the point and then the placed numbers hit like crazy. But more often you will end up racking $5 - $20 of extra profit on the medium hands that all of a sudden go cold. This strategy forces you to regress and claim some profit.
7) Knowing that most hands are short and knowing that non-paying hits will trigger regression later in the hand, you may want to full press on those good hits that happen in the 3 -5 roll range. Especially if your session bankroll is positive. Let the money work for you until it stops producing. I tend to full press the first hit then take all profit or press one unit on the 2nd hit. The non-payments will force regression so I press at first, but no too much. Just so I can get up to a double unit payment. If that 6 is built up to $18 you have room to regress to $12 and then $6 and still have a chance to win. If the devil shows I feel much better mentally to only lose $6 versus $18. Any positive hit is a profit regardless of the size of the placed bet. Try not to grieve that a win was smaller than it could have been. It was a win. Small wins add up. PLUS smaller losses when the devil shows is financially and mentally rewarding.
8) If you make the point, increase you PL bet and craps by one unit. So the second CO would be $15 PL and $3 3-way craps. Third CO would be $20 with a $5 horn high 3 or a $6 3-way. etc. Parlay the PL win once and then reset to the original bet level for that hand. Press a craps win to double the original bet $3 - $9 - $12 - $24. The goal is to catch a streak of one or the other. Parlay every other PL win. Press every craps win. This is a different game than once the point is set. Adjust your brain and dice set and play to win each game.
9) After the first point is made put up a $5 come bet. If it gets picked off no more come bets until you get paid on something. If it travels you now have another working number or you got paid if it traveled to a placed number. Use the profits as odds. Keep playing the press-on-wins regress-on-nonpayment strategy. The come acts as a small hedge for that first roll and marks a new number you hope will repeat. Don't be afraid to take the odds off if it doesn't come back quickly. Look for the streaks and trends and follow those. If you get a string of repeaters on the come bet number, keep replacing the come and pressing the odds. Reduce the odds if it doesn't hit. A come bet that has been sitting unpaid for 3 rolls is not a streak. Put the odds to work on a better number or rack it as a regression profit.
10) From here keep repeating the pattern. +1 unit on the PL for each point made. One come bet after each new point. So after hitting two points you can have 2 come bets. Three points 3 come bets etc. Your choice if you put up a new come bet after they win. But never have more come bets in play than the number of points you hit. Pressing the PL will ensure that a CO7 will never take more than it pays since it will always add up to more than your come bets are.
11) One other variable I sometimes do is if I immediately set and hit the point the I will call working on the next CO. So If I roll 6 - 6 as the first two rolls I'll work on the 3rd roll. This gives me me the chance to hit my big regression point within 3 rolls of the dice. If that happens I just place the PL, no craps as I am trying to set for and hit a paying box number. In this case I do skip the CO game.
OK, that's it. I've been playing this all week with usually good results. It's hard at home to keep discipline sometimes because I get bored, but when I do it has worked well. It can be a grind at times if I get two good rolls followed by a PSO, but it has also allowed me to leap out to a quick start.
I know it's a little like some other plays, but I've never heard of another strategy that calls for a small regression after each non-paying roll. That's the kind of trigger I need personally to keep me from endlessly hanging onto to the hope that the next roll will be good. Several times in practice I regressed down to almost nothing when the 7out came. I'm planning to try it this weekend and will report it's success. I'll have to modify it if there's only a $10 table. If it's only $15 tables I won't be able to do it.
I would love to hear any thoughts about the play. Thanks in advance.
1) The CO is sort of like a game all unto it's self yet I often just try to survive it. Rather than just surviving it, how might I take advantage of the CO for profit?
2) I want to take better advantage of streaks. I hate seeing four 9s in a hand but I'm not on them. How do I get on a streak/trend early?
3) Outside numbers often come in bunches. How do I use the outside and stop always clinging to the 6 & 8?
4) I need to have the nerve to trust my shooting with an initial investment and then regress once bets are paid for. How can I do this on my bankroll and typical $600 buy-in? The plan must include what I would adjust if the first hand goes well versus poorly.
5) What can I do to leave less on the table? Why did I lose money on that 6 - 9 roll hand that paid me several times? Why am I always clinging to the hope that the next roll will yield my hero number and pay me big. Why do I think I need to have 3 - 4 placed numbers up in order to have a chance at a hit? How can I balance the desire to keep pressing with the knowledge that the devil is always gonna show so be sure to take some profit.
6) I like structure to a point. I do want some freedom to make choices but I also like rules that keep me from having to think about every choice.
I started thinking about a betting pattern designed to satisfy the above. PLUS many thanks to L for the idea of getting paid on EVERY roll. The basic rules are:
1) Catch streaks from the start and stay on them
2) Parlay the CO
3) Across and regress after two hits.
4) Stay up on hit numbers to catch a streak.
5) Auto-regress on non-paying rolls to ALWAYS get paid every roll
The play in detail. On a $5 table:
The Comeout:
Put $10 on the PL with a $1 any craps. The goal of the CO is to catch a streak of 7/11s or craps. That's why the PL bet is larger than minimum and why there is always a craps check. Not to protect the PL, but to be there from the beginning if a streak of horn numbers shows. The protection of the PL is a positive side effect. I won't chase a horn mid hand, but I will chase them on the CO.
1st roll: A) If 7 or 11 rolls parlay the win minus a $3 3-way craps check. So PL would become $17. Try to roll 7/11 again. B) If craps rolls replace the $10 PL and press to a $3 3-way in addition to the $1 craps. Try to roll craps again.
2nd roll. A) If 7 - 11 rolls again take $23 profit ($17 + $7 - $1) and regress to the original bet of $10 PL and $1 any craps. If craps rolls after the first roll of 7/11 press to a $6 3-way and put up a $10 PL. B) If craps repeats after an initial craps roll press to $6 3-way and $10 PL.
3rd roll. Try to hit whatever side is streaking again. Always press the craps indefinitely. Always press the 7/11 once and then lock up the profit of the second hit minus the $3 3-way.
After a point is established:
1) Place $52-54 across and single odds on the point. The goal now is to get two hits and then regress to a level that puts you in a net gain position for the hand, hopefully with three numbers working. So let's say the point is 5 and the next two rolls are 4 - 6. You have +$18 +$14 to work with. Your PL is $10 so that leaves $22. Place the 4 and 6 for $5 each and put $6 odds on the point. You are now +$6 no matter what. If you are feeling really good then place $10 on the 4 or $10 odds on the 5. But NO Matter what, do not toss again unless you are net positive. You can't press the 6 to $12 because that leaves you only even. That's the rule.
1A) If the first roll after the point is established is a 7-out. Take your lumps and start over. Volatility is gonna happen. If it happens 3 times in a row, quit, regroup and reset. Try later in the day or another trip. If it happens a few times keep trying but DON'T PRESS the across bet after a loss. No chasing. Give it a chance to work.
1B) If the first roll after the point is established is a horn, remove half of the money at risk. Either regress to a single unit across or remove 3 numbers. What you remove is your choice but a non-paying number on this first roll means CAUTION. It brings you 1 roll closer to the inevitable 7-out with no gain so far and no potential streak either. Live to fight another day. Regress. If the next roll is also a horn then take it all down. No, the horn repeater doesn't mean the seven is due but a primary goal of the strategy is to catch a streak from the beginning. You just missed a horn streak. The dice were out of sync with this play. Live to fight another day. Take it all down and try to bring home the point.
2) If you stayed up after a craps roll on the first roll after the point was set, and then the second roll is a good box number but you are no longer on that number due to cautionary regression, stay up for one more roll to see if you can get a hit. Shift towards the number that hit or stay put, your choice just don't increase your bets. If a non-paying box number rolls yet again then you must come down. If a paying number rolls rack it and roll again. If you get the second hit regress to net pos. Excellent you achieved a major step in the sequence without even being across. That's great. However if a non paying number roll here take this hand as a one-hit-and-down hand. Too choppy. Live to fight another day.
3) Once you are in net pos position you are hoping for a repeat hit on one of your numbers. If that happens you can either press or rack it. Your choice. Use your gut for this call. Full press. Spread out to more numbers. Take it all as profit. This is a flexible point in the strategy and allows you to exercise your brain and grow into a good hand. But, on every hit you should be at least racking a few dollars. Full press that 6 to $12 and rack $1. Full press a $10 four to $25 but rack $3. Never power-press and go backwards in your rack. Yes' it's only a few dollars but it's more about the discipline than the money. Use the discipline of this play to stay on track. Some things are flexible, this is not.
4) If the first roll after you regress is a horn number you must regress one unit somewhere. Reduce you odds or a placed bet or take a placed bet down. For example you set the 5 then rolled a 4 and 6. You regressed to $5 on 4, $6 on 6 and $10 PL with $10 odds. Next roll is 2. Now you can either take down the 4 or 6 or reduce your odds on the 5 to $6.
5) If the first roll after you regress is a box number but doesn't pay you can stay up one more roll. Move your bets or stay put just don't put any more $ on the table. For example you set the 5 then rolled a 4 and 6. You regressed to $5 on 4, $6 on 6 and $10 PL with $10 odds. Next roll is 9. You don't get paid but you get to stay up for one more roll. Leave things, or maybe move the 4 to 9 and toss again.
6) From here on out you will ALWAYS regress after any non-paying roll. No matter what. You can press anytime you get paid, but any roll of the dice that doesn't pay in winnings must pay via regression. I like to take down the placed number that has hit last, or maybe reduce odds on the point. This is an automatic safeguard that forces you to get some additional profit if the hand is going nowhere. Yes, it might also mean you regress down to just the point and then the placed numbers hit like crazy. But more often you will end up racking $5 - $20 of extra profit on the medium hands that all of a sudden go cold. This strategy forces you to regress and claim some profit.
7) Knowing that most hands are short and knowing that non-paying hits will trigger regression later in the hand, you may want to full press on those good hits that happen in the 3 -5 roll range. Especially if your session bankroll is positive. Let the money work for you until it stops producing. I tend to full press the first hit then take all profit or press one unit on the 2nd hit. The non-payments will force regression so I press at first, but no too much. Just so I can get up to a double unit payment. If that 6 is built up to $18 you have room to regress to $12 and then $6 and still have a chance to win. If the devil shows I feel much better mentally to only lose $6 versus $18. Any positive hit is a profit regardless of the size of the placed bet. Try not to grieve that a win was smaller than it could have been. It was a win. Small wins add up. PLUS smaller losses when the devil shows is financially and mentally rewarding.
8) If you make the point, increase you PL bet and craps by one unit. So the second CO would be $15 PL and $3 3-way craps. Third CO would be $20 with a $5 horn high 3 or a $6 3-way. etc. Parlay the PL win once and then reset to the original bet level for that hand. Press a craps win to double the original bet $3 - $9 - $12 - $24. The goal is to catch a streak of one or the other. Parlay every other PL win. Press every craps win. This is a different game than once the point is set. Adjust your brain and dice set and play to win each game.
9) After the first point is made put up a $5 come bet. If it gets picked off no more come bets until you get paid on something. If it travels you now have another working number or you got paid if it traveled to a placed number. Use the profits as odds. Keep playing the press-on-wins regress-on-nonpayment strategy. The come acts as a small hedge for that first roll and marks a new number you hope will repeat. Don't be afraid to take the odds off if it doesn't come back quickly. Look for the streaks and trends and follow those. If you get a string of repeaters on the come bet number, keep replacing the come and pressing the odds. Reduce the odds if it doesn't hit. A come bet that has been sitting unpaid for 3 rolls is not a streak. Put the odds to work on a better number or rack it as a regression profit.
10) From here keep repeating the pattern. +1 unit on the PL for each point made. One come bet after each new point. So after hitting two points you can have 2 come bets. Three points 3 come bets etc. Your choice if you put up a new come bet after they win. But never have more come bets in play than the number of points you hit. Pressing the PL will ensure that a CO7 will never take more than it pays since it will always add up to more than your come bets are.
11) One other variable I sometimes do is if I immediately set and hit the point the I will call working on the next CO. So If I roll 6 - 6 as the first two rolls I'll work on the 3rd roll. This gives me me the chance to hit my big regression point within 3 rolls of the dice. If that happens I just place the PL, no craps as I am trying to set for and hit a paying box number. In this case I do skip the CO game.
OK, that's it. I've been playing this all week with usually good results. It's hard at home to keep discipline sometimes because I get bored, but when I do it has worked well. It can be a grind at times if I get two good rolls followed by a PSO, but it has also allowed me to leap out to a quick start.
I know it's a little like some other plays, but I've never heard of another strategy that calls for a small regression after each non-paying roll. That's the kind of trigger I need personally to keep me from endlessly hanging onto to the hope that the next roll will be good. Several times in practice I regressed down to almost nothing when the 7out came. I'm planning to try it this weekend and will report it's success. I'll have to modify it if there's only a $10 table. If it's only $15 tables I won't be able to do it.
I would love to hear any thoughts about the play. Thanks in advance.
