Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Since I just started a thread on Scoblete's Famous Five Count I thought I'd do the same with regards to John Patrick's Table Charting theory. For those of you who don't know what we're talking about - table charting is simply recoroding a series of rolls in order to gain an idea which way the table is running - hot, cold, or choppy. In theory you can then bet appropriately and improve your chances of winning. If you subscribe to a "follow the trend" philosophy then this probably fits your belief system. If you are a "buck the trend" person then you could still use the charting results to your theoretical advantage. If you believe the dice have no memory when it comes to random rollers then it probably doesn't matter.

Personally, I take charting beyond table trends and look at individual shooter trends. What I've found through the years is that some shooters are simply better than others. That doesn't mean they are necessarily DI's. I see a lot of random rollers who appear to just be luckier than others - sometimes I refer to them as "natural shooters." But for the most part I'm looking for folks who consciously or subconsciously are influencing the outcome of the roll. I look for repeating numbers and that's how I like to bet these folks.

My pal Irishsetter completely rejects the idea of tracking for table streaks and trends. He believes that anything can change at any time - and usually will. It's hard to argue with that philosophy. It's just one of those things he and I agree to disagree on.

The "biased dice" crowd tracks for specific numbers as they search out those mystical "fight night" dice they talk about. Does anybody here put any stock in their biased dice notions? Supposedly some of them reported one casino to the gaming commission for using biased dice. The gaming commission supposedly investigated and called "bullshit." Of course that only fueled another conspiracy theory.

Most gaming systems sold require some degree of tracking or qualifying shooters before entering play. My philosophy is simple enough. Once the shooter establishes a point he has to toss one of the box numbers I typically place before I put any action out. First toss eight. Wait. Second toss nine. $110 inside including the point. That sort of thing. Had the second toss been a 2, 3, 11, or 12 I would have continued to wait for a box number.

To chart or not to chart? I contend that it's saved me a lot of money through the years. What are you thinking?

The Dice Doctor advocates qualifying a shooter, but does contend that a "cold" table is always only one toss from becoming a "ot" table.

Noah

I like charting shooters. It has paid fine dividends over the years. Example: My pal heavy throws a bookoo of 5's and 9's on the CO. So, I hop one or the other or work the place bet(s). I am well over 50% with this play. GC throws a lot of horn numbers on his CO's, so I wait for a box number. Heavy and RR load up the props as does GC.
Now, how about the other 7 strangers at the table? I have found watching them pays the same dividends on the second trip around the table. When we were in S/B in July, at one session, there was a BTB on the end that could throw nothing but sixs and eights. I believe Heavy caught a nice ride on that train. Now, as far as charting the table, to me that is an iffy proposition. Sometimes you can catch a nice cold trend, but I never trust the hot trends. sia

I watch the 6' and 8's since they are suppose to come up the most. Sometimes one shows more than another. But, don't overlook the 4's and 10's.

heavy,

Since you make stops at Patrick's board you pretty well know how I view trends. I agree that while the table trend is important I too trend the shooters looking for consistency. Of course that doesn't mean I expect the same results every time they shoot but I do expect the majority to fall in a certain direction. Money is to be made on a fairly consistent good or bad shooter.

A lot of shooters are just plain inconsistent and there's no telling where any given hand will go. These are the ones that will bite you in the butt if you rush out to bet on them. I also believe that "choppy" is one of the most misunderstood and misleading descriptions if one uses trends.

When trend discussions start on Patrick's board it always seems to center on just the results with little or no discussion of the shooter's part in any given trend. Not saying results aren't important just that one can reach a similar result in more than one way when considering trends. Sometimes what you see on the surface ain't the whole story and you've got to stick your head into the water to see what's underneath or some of what's underneath.

Keeps everything lively for me at least.

Kelph

Well, the thing about charting is that it helps enforce one of my favorite rules: "Don't test the depth of the water with both feet."

First you hand over $3,500.

Kelph

Little joe,

If you're really interested I would suggest you go to super rick's board (I'm sure heavy can give the site address), join, and check out "The Method" thread in the Bad Bet section. Rick actually met and played with Nelli to see what the fuss was about so he could give his personal honest review.

I think it's better to hear from someone who actually saw it in action with nothing to gain or lose rather than praise from someone after they shelled out $3,500 or receives a piece of the action.

Kelph

What is there to say? The Method works and is worth the price. You follow the manual and make bets accordingly. I struggled with it at first; its a lot of learning. Complete overhaul of what everyone preaches about craps. If you dont want it...dont buy it. You think its BS and your way of playing works, then stick to that. I love The Method and love its approach to craps. I spent 3000 for it back in August and would have paid for it in full with some winnings if I wouldnt have spent the winnings on DI play. Beau gives The Method a solid endorsement and Heavy, Im sure belives Beau is a stand up guy. You wantto learn about The Method, ask Dicecoach to talk on the phone or call Steve Nelli himself...I will give you his cell number and he will talk to you. Frankly, the more people bash it the better! Just like DI..the moreyou bash it, the better for our community!.

Lil Joe

The Method is used on every shooter. And you are correct about system sellers and buyers. I will NEVER push The Method on any site because it is not appropriate. Steve played with Superrick and won every session he did with him. Beau played with Steve for nearly a year and won every session. The Method is hard to get any info on...playerd like superrick and small time players will NEVER pay that much to learn a system because they believe they know all about the already and its a big investment. High rollers dont need it because they have money already.

Lil Joe. If you wanted to go pro, then The Method is perfect for that. It definitely rliminates the need for DI. However...I rnjoy DI and use The Method for a supplementary income. I only play Sundays because I am in Cali and we use cards...Method works fine with card craps as well. When in Vegas...I use DI because its fun and does result in lI ong rolls. Like I said...The Method is tough to learn and I took some lumps...but once you learn it you will please I think.

Snakeeyes

That is great! I was very worried when I made the purchase and caught a lot of shit over at the crapsforum...I stopped posting over there and am very happy with my results. I just wish I can hook up with some local players over here and win money. I'm sure your bj purchase was better used with a small team?

Can you get me the site address to super rick's board so I can read his post on "The Method"?

Sorry, someone sent me a link to the site once upon a time (so I could read some of the BS written about me, Irish, and others). I spent about two minutes there and never went back. I'm trying to stay above all of the BS these days.

As for Nelli's system - I've been told that it has many elements of the Boot Camp strategy I teach from time to time. I know several members of this forum have purchased it and seem to do well with it. No, you are not going to win every session with it. At least that's what one player who'd had his share of losing sessions told me. I do know of at least four board members who purchased the system. I've heard no complaints. I cannot personally endorse it since I've never actually seen it. It is what it is.

Meanwhile, if we're not going to get into any particulars of the strategy let's move on to other subjects before someone complains that this thread has turned into Nelli Spam.

Thanks.

h

Those of you who have played with me know that I have charted every player since I started DI 5 years ago. What I have learned by charting is that I can see what "The Table" is "Giving"...Repeating numbers, Craps numbers, and Hardaway’s. My betting is based on these trends. This is my personal style and it seems to work fairly well over the long run. It also lets me determine my SSR "On the Fly". Charting the table is time consuming and there are always questions from other players and the crew as to why I do it but for me it is a wealth of information that assist in my betting style. The longer I do it the more I can spot trends that are developing more easily.

LF

I have to agree with LF on this one. I love "follow the trend" betting strategies. Dylanfreak said long ago that "The dice don't have a memory but they do have a history." I've stolen that phrase and used it many times - adding to it that "History repeats itself."

Ive been charting for almost 10 years..maybe longer. I follow the trend at the table as well. On the nelli issue... Not sure if you all know this but Steve basically copied Craps Pro 2000 and tweaked a few things and added 100 pages of stuff from his heart... Craps pro 2000 sold for $500 back in 2000, written by Dr Anthony....Steve said he got permission to remarket it with dr A consent... who knows how true that is...

I have tweaked the same strategy Steve sells for $$3500.... If you know anything about Craps pro than you already have the Method of Play.... yes it makes $$$ yes you need to be super disciplined not to bet when you are not suppose to....you can make $$$ without Steves revisions IMO.... The greastest thing about it is when you as a Di shoot, you can play The method on yourself as well as your normal bets... I use $50-$100 units on Craps Pro (CP) and I use $26 across and Power press.. Whatever number is my DOM/Rec Dom/Loss # returning I peg it for $50-$100 described above and that is the only # $ wise that is different... Once I hit it I nuetralize it back to whatever i have across... I now do not have to wait to hit 5 box numbers to get my investment back... I was suppose to meet with Steve to trade variations months ago, but my wife talked me out of giving him my 10+ yrs of work.... where he in turn will sell it and better his variation....

my .02 worth...

Hmmm. I think I have a copy of Craps Pro gathering dust in the closet somewhere.

Heavy,
You mentioned that you wait for a shooter to establish a point, and throw at least 1 of the box numbers you typically bet on. You then place $110 inside including the point. If the point is 4 or 10, do you make that a separate place bet ? $110 inside(5,6,8,9) and $25(4or10) outside?
Thanks
Tom

Depends on a couple of things. If we're talking about a known player and he's someone I feel confident that can toss a hand then I'll go ahead and get on the pass line. If he's an unknown I won't bet the pass line until he's "proven" he can make a pass - so in that case, no, I would not place the point.

Personally whether someone believes/doesn’t believe or buys/doesn’t buy Nelli’s “The Method” is really not a concern for me. How I play and what I do is not suppose to work so I’m in no position to make categorical statements regarding other specific approaches. In general I have little faith in mechanical systems holding up. I’m more in line with LF and heavy with charting, both tables and shooters, picking up on trends, being selective on what, who, how much and how long, and backed with enough discipline to follow through on it. I’m sure all three of us do it somewhat differently.

The cost of an approach is absolutely no indication of its merits. Some of the best scams involve selling crap for a large sum because the naïve think if it costs that much it has to work (this is not directed at Nelli but rather a general comment).

Now if owners of “The Method” say it’s great and are happy they spent the money that’s fine. If they say they're winning……..fine. What strikes me as questionable is when I read “winning every session”. It could be true but seems highly unlikely.

Case in point is the statement that Nelli won all sessions when with superrick. Someone, not me, passed that bit of information to rick and he disagrees. He contacted me to ask if I would post a reply on the thread and heavy gave me permission (I’m a respectful kind of guy). Again whether it works or not or worth the price is not my concern. Stating someone else’s opinion incorrectly, even if unintentionally, does concern me.

Here is superrick’s reply…………

Kelph

The Method
I don't know where the guy over on Heavy's board got his information, but it's wrong, and that is all there is to it! I played two sessions with Steve he won one and he lost one, what I saw was a system that was based on superstitions, and that was about it. The only reason he won the first time was because he got lucky and hit a few of his bigger bets.

I have talked to players that have used this system and are no longer using it, now why would that be, maybe because they lost money!

No system will work all the time, and that is all there is to it!

Anybody can tell you anything they want you to hear, but don't say that Steve won if you weren't there I was there, and he didn't want to play the second session, could that have been because he did win the first one, and he knows that it doesn't work every time you play it?

I also know that he told me that I shouldn't shoot, that I should play the system on other players! I should throw away all the practicing I've done over the years, and only use his system, that it wouldn't work if I was shooting, because I couldn't make the right bets if I was shooting, and using his system at the same time. You can buy into anything you want too, but in my way of thinking, if I had a system that was so good why would I be selling it to anybody?

I wouldn't want anybody to know what I was doing, and would be making my money at all the casinos around the country.

OwnTheFelt wrote:Lil Joe

The Method is used on every shooter. And you are correct about system sellers and buyers. I will NEVER push The Method on any site because it is not appropriate. Steve played with Superrick and won every session he did with him. Beau played with Steve for nearly a year and won every session. The Method is hard to get any info on...playerd like superrick and small time players will NEVER pay that much to learn a system because they believe they know all about the already and its a big investment. High rollers dont need it because they have money already.

Just one more player that never met me, and knows everything there is about me! I call it as I see it, and it's still a system, no matter what you want to call it!

If it didn't work that night at Wynn, one out of the two times that I saw it what does that tell you?
Here I had the guy that was selling it, and he failed! I said before I met him that I didn't want to buy it, and if it worked I would tell it like it was, so lets get things straight right now. As far as I'm concerned it didn't work, he had the chance to show it to me after that, but said he was too busy!
If I was Beau I would give up teaching, and make all my money playing the Method!

Please don't speak for me if you never met me, and you didn't hear those words come out of my month.
You can find me at the tables around Vegas, but you will never see me playing any kind of a system!

superrick

There you go. The record is set straight and everyone can make up their own minds but just be sure you get first hand info. If you only speak to those who praise it without hearing from those that ceased using it.........well, it's your money.

Kelph