Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I DID NOT START THIS THREAD BUT IT APPEARS THAT WAY. JUST SO YOU KNOW.

lar

As a kid..
an elderly old guy on my paper route imparted some wisdom he had learned in the University of HARD KNOCKS
I figured the old guy knew of what he spoke because even though he had bankrupted twice
early on ,he had amassed some large holdings by the time he was in his 50's.......

Rule # ONE: "Watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves "
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Rule # TWO : "You will pay for what you get.You may not always get what you pay for"
.....
Amazing how those true-isms have stood the test of time...........


For the most part...ALL those CARNIVAL or SIDE BETS
were developed ,are copy-written,and licensed to the casinos for a hefty $fee......
.
The casino dangles the greater the $ lure the greater the ODDS against the player winning.

Best wishes on beating the house at it's own game.

W C

I hate to single you out here, RollerCoaster, but I'm going to assume your handle has something to do with the fluctuation you experience with your bankroll based on the suggestions you've made on how to play here on the forum. Personally, I would not play this strategy with your money. Just saying . . .

If you have the patience,discipline and good bankroll management,sooner or later you will find yourself in such opportunity 99% of the times!

Man, I hate to take on Irish's role here today but I think you pulled that 99% number out of your . . . out of thin air. I hate going through these kinds of exercises but seriously, let's see a little math. Want to run a martingale on a game with a $2500 max bet and a $5 game?

$5 - $10 - $20 - $40 - $80 - $160 - $320 - $640 - $1280 - $ table max shut you down. Nine decisions not going your way took you to the $2500 table max (you'd need to bet $2560 on that last bet - I guess you could toss out a $2500 DP plus a $90 lay against the five or nine to get close to where you need to be). I believe the fact that a come out seven or eleven in this mix - which will happen twice as often as you will win on a two or three. Bottom line - table max is a bear that's going to bite you on the ass.

Bankroll fluctuation? Sure. We all deal with it. But you don't HAVE to ride the roller coaster. I can go into the casino and grind out small wins of $80 - $160 every session - play a couple of hundred sessions a year and win more than the vast majority of the players at the table. And I DON'T have wide bankroll fluctuations. Fluctuations - yes - but not huge ones.

I don't want to get into a pissing contest with you, but I've seen way too many players go down the double-up system trail never to return.

Heavy wrote: But you don't HAVE to ride the roller coaster. I can go into the casino and grind out small wins of $80 - $160 every session - play a couple of hundred sessions a year and win more than the vast majority of the players at the table. And I DON'T have wide bankroll fluctuations. Fluctuations - yes - but not huge ones.

How? I'd take that result.

How? I'd take that result.

You have to learn how to play both sides of the game. Eliminate the high vig high return bets from your play. Stick with low vig conservative approaches.

I always recommend charting at least one turn around the table before jumping in and playing. IMHO you need to know what the current trend is at the table is, who the shooters are, who at the table can't shoot worth a flip, etc. Then you have an idea of how to bet. Instead of betting every player exactly the same - tailor your betting to what's happening at the tale.

For example, let's say there's a guy at the table who consistently tosses 10 - 12 number hands with a few sixes and eights thrown in, but never seems to be able to make a pass. Here's how I'd play him.

$25 Don't Pass. Once the point is established place the six and eight for $12 each. Leave the place bets up for three or four tosses - looking to get one hit on either place bet. Once you collect that $14 bring the place action down and wait for a decision on the DP. Odds are you're going to win that bet as well. At that point you're risking $11 to win $25. Not a bad play considering that you'll win it two out of three times.

What it the table is fairly positive and there's a guy handling the dice who's made a pass or two and is tossing some inside numbers. Here's a play that worked for me for years on guys like that. $66 inside for one hit. Pays $21. Regress to $22 inside. Next hit pays $7 - same bet. From that point on press every third hit, regardless of which number it is. If, at any time, you go three rolls with no payouts on your inside action just bring it down and wait for the next shooter.

Here's another one that works great when you're killing time waiting for the dice to come back to you. Wait for a point to be established then place the sister number to that point. One bet. That's it. If you get a hit on that bet then you bring it down and wait for the next shooter.

Have a little faith in your own shooting and bet when you have an advantage. When you don't have an advantage - limit your action.

Don't be afraid to limit your action on other players to a single bet. You can always get more money on the table if the hand takes off, but it's tough to get it back when the seven whacks you early.

Almost certainly

Hey Obie1, I got your back, for if and when you "suffer the consequences...!"

irish wrote:Rollercoaster and CrapsGenious.... related?

Irish,

My exact thought!

Maybe twins by different mothers!

irish wrote:Rollercoaster and CrapsGenious.... related?

Where's the LIKE button when I need one.

One needn't be a CrapsGenious to get your craps published.

You are accountable for each house edge on each and every bet individually, every time, no matter what. DF can chime in about hedging.

RollerCoaster wrote:

irish wrote:Roller/Genious/B_Angel has cross posted his absurdities. But apparently, he's a published author on gambling. Here's the only quote I can find from a purchaser, "Don't throw your money on this crap." Color me shocked.

You are right about the most,but not all non the less...
Yes,I'm the author of a few roulette systems and "the real parity hedge system" for craps,all of them published at Amazon.
Thanks for the assist by the way!
Once again,I'M NOT THE CRAPGENIUS and I'm calling CrapGenius to come out wherever you are to clear this out once and for all!
As about the comments,at least I'm not paying for fake testimonials and what's a person could say,it's ONLY his/her personal opinion and nothing more!
Some things are more subjective rather than objective like declaring 1+1=2 , thus all come down to the personal perspective...

Ummm Idiot or CrapsGenious was kicked off this site because of his well... He's and idiot.
So you can call him out all you want. The only way you will hear an answer is if you answer your own call out
However if you insist that you are not him then you must excuse the confusion. You're an idiot just like him.

RollerCoaster wrote: Indeed,I took personally.It's a facet of my personality,anyway.
Your example is pretty simple, there are six 7s on the come out roll,that's why you need to LAY number 4 or 10 in order to protect the main DP bet.
Of course after the come out roll,you are taking down the LAY bet,so in your example,I would have 1 point (2 times the same) and two steps down on the grand martingale progression.
To balance every same point,you are converting from grand martingale to single martingale: -20 , -60 , 100 ...etc
Let's assume our shooter has three times the same point: -20, -60 , -100 (converted to single martingale), 200 ...and so on.
The key is to be flexible, "it's a bad plan the one which cannot be altered"

Not to belabor what seemingly is already a pointless exercise, but I am curious what happens in your scenario when you have your DP and a lay 4 or 10 and the comeout happens to be that 4 or 10? I only ask because I watched a guy lay the 4 against my comeout one night for $100, the first thing I said is, "you might want to rethink that"... after I had a comeout 4 he decided to lay it again, to which I said the same thing I said the first time. For brevity sake I will simply say when I returned the 4 he decided to lay the 10 and received the same advice from me, but I only had to give him that advice 4x [comeout 4 returned the 4 comeout 10 returned the 10, the other points were inside numbers] because he didn't like the results. So what happens when your lay bet is knocked off? Do you place or buy on the 4 or 10 [whichever hit] to cover the DP or do you let it stand, then once it is knocked off... what next?

The long and short of it is I see your scenario going badly the first time someone has a comeout that you had a lay bet on then returns the point. I will grant that you have more moxie than most people and I can respect that, seemingly you have limited understanding of mathematics, statistics, and probability but at least what you lack in that you more than make up for in your ability to bravely advise people to make ill advised choices with their money. Then too you seem to take it rather personally and threaten them once they point out that volatility will decimate your bankroll faster than most, why is that? Seemingly the first thing one learns on the way to becoming an adult is to stop childish bravado such as when you told obie he'd suffer the consequences because he stated that comeout naturals would hurt you in a DP position [granted he lacked eloquence in stating it but obie often suffers that particular shortcoming]... but it seems you have exceedingly thin skin.

My suggestion would be if you have such thin skin you might wish to rethink giving advice that the math doesn't back up, because someone will call you out on it, and fortunately for you obie is much nicer about it than others here... as he can attest to. Also I think you really owe obie a much better apology than the excuse for one that you offered. Saying that its just how you are leaves a bitter taste, whereas a heartfelt apology and a statement that English is not your primary language would leave others less prone to think you to be devoid of even the most common courtesy when you're in the wrong.

No thank you I don't need to look for idiots. Unfortunately they troll this site more often than desired.

Good luck with your strategy / book / whatever.. Say hey to your twin troll Crapsgenious.

RollerCoaster wrote: Without any obligation to explain and/or apologize to "Obie" and you, but just for clarification of this matter, user "obie" used the expression: "...oh boy you're screwed!" so instead of replying in the same manner,which by the way is very unfamiliar to me,I've responded:"...next time you'll suffer the consequences...!"
Indeed,English is NOT my native language,but you I'm afraid,you are not able to speak anything else than your native language!
Finally,about your suggestion,I put where it belongs,to the RUBBISH!

Actually since you know very little about me you wouldn't know which languages I am fluent in or not, therefore it is presumptuous on your part, I expect no less from you as you've already shown yourself to be rather brusk. Not that I expect you to understand or heed what I say but suffice it to say in regards to your posts and replies, just because you can be an arrogant asshole does not mean you should avail yourself of the opportunity every time you feel the need to post something relating to math that you clearly do not quite understand. Now, if you're such a dullard that you can't understand the things most people learn as a child, such as if you berate people simply for pointing out mistakes that were made which will help you... well I can't really say that I can do much for you. I'd chalk most of it up to language barrier issues but I think that gives you much more credit than you deserve.

To put it in terms even you can understand, people here seem to dislike you because you are an arrogant self involved individual that has virtually no knowledge of the subject you speak of, yet you attack those that offer any type of differing opinion and especially based on the math you misuse. If you aren't bright enough to understand the concept of be nice and others will be nice too you, there is little I can say except good luck with your short fuse and quick temper.

Please refrain from the name calling, gents. Also, do we have to make such excessive use of the "quote" function? Good grief! We're looking at quotes of quotes of quotes here. How about we all give it a rest.

Thanks.

h

Okay HEAVY asked to play nice so this is THE LAST ATTEMPT to help you understand why your math is wrong... This is referring to your original post.

RollerCoaster wrote:Let's get to the point!
What I would do if I had the option to bet the firebet on EVERY roller and not only when I'm rolling:

You ALWAYS have that option as long as the casino offers fire betting. Some have the Tall/Small etc... I have NEVER heard a dealer say no you don't have the option unless you come in in the middle of the roll.

RollerCoaster wrote: Start a don't pass progression WITHOUT don't odds.

Taking odds on the DO/DON't is in your favor as it has the better odds on the table. But since you want to use a Martingale system I understand why you choose not to do so in this instance.

RollerCoaster wrote:
I'm not sure what's exactly the payouts for 4 or 5 different points,but let's say a 5 pointer pays 250 to 1 and I wager 5 bucks.

Okay I am trying to be as nice as possible here but if you're not sure what the payouts are for certain bets then please go study the game before making suggestions on betting strategies. However let's say I agree with you that the payout to a 5 pointer pays 250 to 1. You know that is 5 different points and not just 5 any points... Anyway moving right along.

RollerCoaster wrote:
I begin betting a grand martingale progression on don't pass line, like mr MAD PROFESSOR suggests.

This is the quickest way to lose money at the craps table. MR. MAD PROFESSOR shows you what a grand martingale system is but I doubt if he suggests playing it the way your are suggesting. However I will leave that up to him to discuss if he chooses to.

RollerCoaster wrote:
I bet 20 (first point) ,if I lose then 60 (second point),if second point taken,140 on the don't pass line (third point),if 4th point made then 300 (fourth point) and finally if you make it all the way to the 5th point,CONGRATULATIONS because you have won by losing another 620 but you have won 5 x 250 = 1255 (including your initial firebet)

Oh boy... Okay the hope here is the shooter makes 5 DIFFERENT POINTS. Example (4,5,6,8,9) If the shooter makes (4,4,6,6,8) then you lost 1140 and whatever else you have on the table. I am not going to state all the odds here for shooters to make a 5 point fire bet are as they are posted all over this forum and you can look them up yourself. Now if you tell me that you see that ALL THE TIME or 99% of the time then you are CrapsGenious who got kicked off this site because that's what he used to say ALL THE TIME.
Now your math also will not add up because you forgot about the come out rolls. You are stating here that no craps are rolled by the shooters during the come out rolls. It could happen but again the odds are against you in this. I can tell you as a DI I set for the craps on the come out.
Any rate moving on.

RollerCoaster wrote:
Let's summarize: 20+60+140+300+620= 1140
1255 -1140 = 115 bucks risk-free! AND THAT'S THE WAY I LIKE IT BABY!!!

Nothing is risk-free! in gambling and playing craps. Let me re-phrase that. The moment you walk into a casino and put money on the table is the moment you are risking that money and the chance of not seeing it again. As for the math here well I think I beat that dead horse enough earlier.

RollerCoaster wrote:
Of course if a roller loses during anytime before reaching the final level,you'd have anything from 20(DP) -5(firebet)= 15 up to 620-(300+140+60+20+5)= 95 bucks net

Let me try and use small words on this and take it step by step. This is assuming it's the same shooter and box numbers are made on the come out.

1- Player does not make the 1st point (20 - 5 = 15 net)
2- Player does not make the 2nd point (60 - 20 - 5 = 35 net)
3- Player does not make the 3rd point (140 - 60 - 20 - 5 = 55 net)
4- Player does not make the 4th point (300 - 140 - 60 - 20 - 5 = 75 net)
5- Player does not make the 5th point (620 - 300 - 140 - 60 - 20 - 5 = 95 net)

You do realize you have risked 1140 of you money in order to make 95 dollars. I can think of many other ways of risking a whole lot less in order to make 95 dollars. And if the shooter makes his 5th point then you are out a heck of a lot more. Unless he made 5 different points. (please refer to the comments above for that)

RollerCoaster wrote: Let's summarize:
First point if lost,profit = 15
Second point if lost,profit = 35
Third point if lost,profit = 55
Fourth point if lost,profit = 75
Fifth point if lost,profit = 95 / five points made,profit = 115
Adjustments could be made in order to scale up or down the initial DP and firebet.

Yes Let's summarize. You are teaching people to risk 1140 of their money in hopes of making 95 dollars. I think you should forget everything you know about the game and listen to some of the experts on this forum that can show you how you can use solid betting strategies to make money. I am going to leave what you posted about other types of side bets alone because this is money going into the Casino pockets.

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A hypothetical wager plan is just that...hypothetical .
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Perhaps HYPOTHETICAL SPEAK will TRANSLATE to virtual world day dreaming
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With a hypothetical / virtual wager plan the wager player has hypothetically only virtual currency at risk
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So said :
The hypothetical + GAIN or VIRTUAL LOSS (- minus ) is hypothetically REALITY BASED negligible
......
The rubber hits the road when the wager maker places REAL CURRENCY AT RISK...in a REAL LIFE
belly to the table casino craps adventure...........

My take on the hypothetical or virtual world War Gaming is show the REAL WORLD results....
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A truth in relating TRIP REPORT may be of greater interest especially if
the wager plan held water over a series of TRUE LIFE HONEST TO GOODNESS trials.....

Just me saying

W C