Chicken Little out in the world

[dork]

My practice at home says I can roll more horn numbers from a 1/5-1/5 dice set than statistical averages project; I've taken this show on the road in my last couple outings. Sunday morning I was on the $5 table; whenever I had the dice I bet 2-2-2 on the ATS, with a $5 PL bet and a $10 World. A couple times, the $2 Small or Tall paid, but more importantly, the World bet paid something probably about 20-25% the time. Twice I rolled consecutive horn numbers and got paid. Once I rolled 3 consecutive horns. I probably either just broke even for my World bets or made a little. I'll have to track those bets separately.

I probably rolled almost as many 7's as all the horn numbers I threw. That caused me to have to replace the ATS a lot. I'm thinking about raising the PL bet to $10 just to build in a profit if the CO with the 1/5-1/5 works my way. Or should I bet another way to take advantage of my World averages?

Also, does anyone here regularly bet the horn or world and shoot for it when they come out? How do you track it? I know I could do it with pen and paper; I'm just wondering if there's a method I haven't thought of using chips in the rack.

Thank you.

edited to add: I'm sure MP wrote about betting the horn or world and rolling for it, I just can't find it with a search. The search engine says 'world' + 'bet' + 'strategy' is too common to search for, and I'm at a loss to define it differently.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

There are several pieces that I wrote on that subject; perhaps this series is the one you are looking for:

Can You Make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS Bet Act Like a Profitable Place-bet?


When I was reading the betting-strategy of our friend, AlCoates awhile back; it occurred to me that his Continuous ANY-CRAPS approach deserved further study.

Now at first blush, a continuous randomly-bet Any Craps bet looks like a terrible idea, what with its near-usurious 11.1% house-edge and its every-roll-is-a-decision bet-verdict hanging over every toss-outcome.

However, instead of quickly rejecting it out of hand; let’s take a look at what it would take to make this a viable (meaning, net-profitable) betting-strategy for a skilled dice-influencer.

To do that, we first have to look at why the Any Craps bet proves to be so unprofitable when used on random-rollers.


Why Randomly-betting Any Craps Doesn’t Work


~The Any Craps bet covers the 2, 3, and 12.

~We know that there are a total of 4-ways-out-of-36 to win this bet (one way each for the 2 and 12, and two ways for the 3).

~We also know that there are a total of 32-ways-out-of-36 to lose this bet.

~When it wins, it pays 7-to-1 (or 8-for-1, which is the same thing).

~With 4 ways to win $7 each…and 32 ways to lose $1 each; we know that this approach will generally lose -$4 for each 36 random outcomes that we bet the Any Craps on.

~So….-$4/$36 = -11.11% house-edge

That 11.1% house-edge is a hard row to hoe if you are looking to make sustainable money off of this when random-rollers have the dice. However, let’s turn the tables and see what it would take to make this into a sustainable net-profitable wager for a skilled shooter.


How Skillful Does an Any Craps Shooter Have to Be?


Before we answer that question, let me remind everyone again that if your skillful shooting can overcome a house edge of -11.1%; then it means that you can also have a devastatingly bigger advantage over other lesser-disadvantaged bets.

That is, if you can overcome the -11.1% house-edge on the Any Craps bet; then you can also have a much higher edge (likely at least 7 times higher) on a bet like the Place 6 or 8.

Likewise, having a 700% higher advantage on a bet like the Place-6 and 8, also means having much lower roll to roll and hand to hand volatility…as in 250% less volatility with the Place-6 and 8 vs. the Any Craps bet.

In other words, you’ll endure about 2.5 times less volatility on the 6 and 8 Place-bet than you will have with the Any Craps wager.

Now, having said that; let’s see what kind of D-I skill it actually takes to make the Any Craps bet net-profitable.

~Since we know that the randomly-bet Any Craps wager falls about -$4 short for every 36 random $1 trials; we find that an additional 0.5 paying-hit brings this bet up to break-even status. [(4.5 winning-hits x $7 per win = $31.50) – (31.5 losing-hits x $1 = $31.50)].

For skilled dice-influencers, breaking-even isn’t good enough, but at least we now know the threshold at which the Any Craps wager would fully pay its own way.

So what can we do with that information?


What Do You Do With What You’ve Got?

~We know that an Any Craps will randomly show up around 11.1% of the time (4-out-of-36 random outcomes).

~We know that it takes 4.5 winning-hits out of 36 outcomes to make this wager break-even.

Let’s say that our good shooting was routinely able to produce one extra Any Craps outcome over random (5 instead of 4 per 36…or about a 13.9% occurrence-rate instead of the randomly-expected 11.1% occurrence-rate for Any Craps).

In that case, with 5 wins at $7 each…and 31 failures at $1 each; we know that this approach will generally earn +$4 for each 36 random outcomes that we bet the Any Craps on.

So….+$4/$36 = +11.11% player-advantage

Hmmm…with just one additional Any Craps outcome per 36 tosses; we’ve turned the house-edge completely upside down and turned it into a player-edge...and frankly, an 11.1% player-edge is hardly something to be dismissed out of hand.

I think our friend, AlCoates may be on to something here.

So here are the key questions:

Can you make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS bet act like a profitable Place-bet?

...and if so;

What is the best way to authenticate and verify our in-casino edge over the Continuous Any Craps strategy?


…to be continued….


Until then,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Here is Part Two of that above-noted piece:


Can You Make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS Bet Act Like a Profitable Place-bet?
Part Two


Let’s think in terms of how money is actually made from our dice-influenced wagers.

Now obviously we get paid when one of our bets wins; but let’s consider for a moment whether those winning payouts are generally based more on “perfect timing” or on “validated edge”?

By that I mean, does placing a bet “at the right time” trump making bets on numbers where we know we have an ‘overall’ validated-edge?

Is trying to “time” our bets a more efficient way to deploy our money; or does that approach more often than not put us at a one-roll-too-late DIS-advantage (after most of the seeming opportunity has passed) than semi-patiently waiting for our validated advantage to come to us does?

Since we know that our advantaged bets don’t manifest themselves on an every-roll basis; should we try to ‘fill in the win-intervals’ (the roll-outcomes where one of our wagers didn’t produce a winning payout) by also betting on in-the-moment outcomes that might be indicating a right-here/right-now money-making opportunity?

For example, let’s say the PL-Point is 6, and you have the 5, 8, and 9 covered with Place-bets (so all of the Inside-Numbers are accounted for with our active wagers).

With that, we have half (18-out-of-36 = 50%) of all possible outcomes covered; which means that on-average, 1-out-of-every-2 rolls will likely produce a winning-payout.

But that also means, on-average, that 50% (the other 1-out-of-2 rolls) will produce NON-paying outcomes.

So should we also bet on the 50% of outcomes that we don’t currently have active wagers on, or should we just try to make money off of the 50% of validated-edge numbers that we do have covered?

Now before you answer that, let me offer this little piece of information:

~Even though you’ve got 50% of all possible outcomes covered with active Inside-number bets; there is also a very strong possibility that you’ll produce a string of three back-to-back-to-back non-Inside numbers within an 8-roll sampling.

So not only will around half of all our outcomes NOT be Inside-number hits; but there's also a good chance that in a very short 8-roll sampling, that you'll also produce a frustrating 3-in-a row clump of non-Inside-numbers as well!

When it happens, many skilled shooters shake their heads in disbelief; yet that is the very nature of D-I variance… even when you have a validated advantage.

That brings us to the question of what should we do with that tightly-clumped group of non-covered outcomes when they do show up?

~Should we take some of our Inside-money and re-deploy/re-distribute it on the trio of non-Inside outcomes that just occurred?

~Should we take fresh money out of our rack and position it on those most-recent but non-covered outcomes?

~Should we ignore that three-number clump entirely, and semi-patiently continue to let our overall skill-level bring our pre-validated edge on the Inside-numbers to us?

That decision is entirely up to you; but if you have a strong and compelling edge over 50% of all possible outcomes, but you also routinely re-deploy or re-distribute betting-dollars on the other half that you don’t have a valid advantage over; then your net-winnings (when measured over a reasonable number of trials) will likely be much lower than if you merely stayed the course.

That is, your newly-deployed/re-deployed/re-distributed bets may provide temporary satisfaction (especially to your ego for having 'timed' things so perfectly); but they will also reduce or entirely remove your mid to long-term overall advantage...and your now-lowered overall net-profit will actually turn out to be negligible, or might even possibly end up on the negative side of the ledger.

Now I know that we are supposed to talking about using Continuous Any Craps bets (and trying to get them to ‘act’ like a conventional Place-bet) in this series (and we still will); but to gain a really thorough understanding of what often happens at a craps table; we first have to look at and consider why our chosen betting-regimen gets distracted so often.


How Distracting and How Often Will Non-Inside Clumps Show Up?

~We know that, on-average, 1-out-of-every-2 outcomes will be a NON-Inside number.

~We know that within a 4-toss sampling, we’ll likely produce an average of 2 consecutive non-Inside numbers in a row.

~We know that within an 8-toss sampling, we’ll likely produce one string of 3 consecutive non-Inside numbers in a row.

~We know that within a 16-toss sampling, we’ll likely produce one string of 4 consecutive back-to-back-to-back-to-back non-Inside numbers in a row.

~We know that within a 32-toss sampling, we’ll likely produce one string of 5 consecutive non-Inside numbers in a row.

If that’s the case; then what should we do with what we know?

For example, if we know that within a 16-toss sampling, we’ll likely produce a tightly-grouped clump of 4 consecutive non-Inside numbers in a row; is that a compelling enough reason to switch our bets/change our bets/turn our bets off/or take our bets down?

We’ll discuss that in detail in Part Three of this series, as well as determining ways to level the playing field between the lower per-bet values of the every-roll-is-a-decision Any Craps wager, and the higher per-bet value of lower-decision-rate Place-bets.

I hope you’ll join me for that.

Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Here is Part Three of that series:


Can You Make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS Bet Act Like a Profitable Place-bet?
Part Three


If you Place-bet $6 each on the 6 and 8, and that wager gets decided one way or the other, on average, every once every 2.25 rolls; then how do you do a level playing field (apples-to-apples) comparison with a Continuous Any Craps bet?

We know that the Any Craps bet gets decided on an every-roll basis. We also know that we generally bet less on the Any Craps than we do on a conventional Place-bet.

To bring a comparison between those two sets of bets more in line with each other, and compare them on an equal-value footing; we first have to divide the $12 in 6 & 8 Place-bet money, into that wagers 2.25 rolls-per-resolution rate (that’s the fancy way of talking about how often this bet gets decided one way or the other).

When we do that, we see that this bet has $5.33 in per-roll exposure for every decision that gets made ($12/2.25 rolls-per-decision = $5.33/toss-outcome).

We also know that a Place-bet on the 6 or 8 pays off at $1.16 for every $1 that we wager on it (by getting a $7 payout for every $6 wagered when it wins); so let’s go ahead and multiply it’s $5.33/roll-decision-exposure by that $1.16 payout rate to determine that this bet’s average payout potential is $6.22/roll.

Let’s compare that to the Any Craps bet:

It gets decided on an every-roll basis; and when one of the Any-Craps numbers appear; this bet gets paid-off at $7 for every $1 wagered on it…so this bet’s payout potential is $7.00/roll.

So, a combined Place-bet on the 6 and 8 yields an average payout potential of $6.22/roll; while the Any Craps bet yields an average payout potential of $7.00/roll.

On the face of it then, a $1 continuous bet on the Any Craps wager is roughly equivalent to about $12 in Place-bet 6 & 8 exposure. ($13.50 in 6 & 8 exposure would make it perfectly symmetrical; obviously though, we can’t bet in odd-units like that).

But wait, we also know that Place-betting the 6 and 8 accounts for 27.8% of all possible random outcomes, while the Any Craps only accounts for 11.1% of them; so how do we reconcile that? And further, can we really make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS bet act and perform like a profitable Place-bet?

We’ll resolve those questions in Part Four. I hope you’ll join me for that.


Until then,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Here's Part Four of that series:


Can You Make a Continuous ANY-CRAPS Bet Act Like a Profitable Place-bet?
Part Four

A good rule of thumb to use in figuring out if high-vig Prop-bets are net-profitable for your current skill-level; is to be very specific in isolating what your current skills are most likely to produce versus what they aren't as likely to produce when you throw the dice...and then figure out if that is going to put money into your pocket...or to remove it out of your bankroll.

The problem is of course, that most prop-bettors simply refuse to do anything as fundamentally sound as that, because they don't want to see an answer to a question that they specifically avoid.

In the simplest terms; a skilled-shooter has to overcome a house-edge that is, on average, about 4.5-times higher than that encountered for Place-bets.

Now you might hear the specious argument that overcoming the house-vig should be the least of a dice-influencer's worries, and that if a bet wins then there's no-vig, and if it loses, then the house-vig is 100%. This kind of tainted logic illustrates not only how little that person really knows about how the game functions in anything approaching a 'big-picture' way; but also how their attempt to over-simplify and dumb everything down; puts them at a distinct disadvantage in terms of ever being able to consistently turn the casino's money into their money.

At couple of things to keep in mind:

~If you can overcome a 11.11% or 12.5% house-edge on prop-bets and make them profitable; just imagine how much more profit you could make if you put the same level of risk-reward money on bets that required 450% less skill to make them profitable.

~Many players will argue that they like to parlay their first prop-bet payout, so that a subsequent next-roll hit will provide an even bigger pay-day; but imagine if they did the same thing on their Place-bets where they have an even higher advantage and it doesn't require a next-toss win to keep them alive. Their bankroll growth could be geometric.

~Most prop-bettors regard their low-dollar middle-of-the-table bet-values as 'throw-away' money; and therefore subject their bankroll to a slow "death by a thousand cuts" erosion that keep their otherwise good shooting-talents on the negative side of the profit ledger.

~When you look at a $4 Horn-bet and compare it to a $22-Inside bet, you have to adjust the risk-value in order to see it in the clearest and most-sober light possible. At first glance $22-Inside is 5.5-times greater that a $4-Horn, and so most players say, "A net 11x or 26x payout for a Horn-bet hit is much better than a 1.16x or 1.4x payout for an Inside-bet hit"; but they fail to figure in the likelihood of an actual win...and the consequence of not producing a winning-hit on either.

~A non-hit on a Prop means that it loses and is removed from the layout; whereas a non-hit on a Place-bet simply means that it's still up to win on the next toss. When a prop-bet's lower roll-to-roll survivability is combined with it's component-parts individual hit-rates; you end up with a wager that is difficult (but not impossible) to produce sustainable profit.

That brings us back to the adjusted-risk that each bet carries. In the hands of a random-roller:

~An Inside-bet will produce a winning-hit about 1 out of every 2 rolls.

~A Horn-bet will produce a winning-hit about 1 out of every 6 rolls.

~An Inside-bet will be resolved in the player's favor about 75% of the time, and will lose the other 25% of the time.

~A Horn-bet will be resolved in the player's favor about 17% of the time, and will lose the other 83% of the time.

~Every $1 wagered on a Horn-bet is equal to at least $4 more being wagered on an Inside-bet.

~A Horn-bet will likely generate 78% less net-revenue/dollar-wagered (after all is said and done) than an Inside-bet will.

If we put that into a dice-influencing perspective where our shooter is able to make the Horn-bet net-positive; we find that if he put those same risk-adjusted dollars ($4 more on his Inside-wagers for every $1 in Horn-bet wagers); he'd be making about 85% more PROFIT for the same RISK...but try convincing a propoholic to do that. ::)



MP

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Now let me offer a valid counter-point to what I just posted above:


Turning 'Trash' Into Treasure


An abundance of point-cycle craps numbers (2, 3, 11, and 12) pose an interesting predicament for the skilled shooter.

~Do we ignore the 'trash' and continue shooting for the box-numbers that we already have active bets on?

~Do we interrupt our rhythm and order up some high-vig prop-bets in hopes of capturing lightning in a bottle?

~Do we formulate a betting-plan that recognizes those craps-numbers in the same advantage-play light as we would with any other validated opportunity?

It really depends on two things:

Quality and Quantity

Whether or not an abundance of point-cycle craps numbers pose a bona-fide and legitimate advantage-play situation depends on the quality and the quantity of the trash numbers that you routinely throw.

In this case as always, your mileage will vary depending on your own validated long-term results.

Ergo, one shooter’s trash can be another shooter’s treasure.

Determining whether your point-cycle craps outcomes are trash or treasure comes down to being honest with yourself.

~If you merely think you have an edge and you won’t go to the trouble of actually quantifying it; then chances are you are still a gambler who likes to think of himself as an advantage-player in order to ease the guilt of losing.

~If your unverified perceived edge is really nothing more than wishful thinking in order to justify and rationalize more negative-expectation ‘gambling’; then don’t kid yourself…you should fully expect to lose and you probably will.

On the other hand…

~A combination of good quality and ample quantity point-cycle trash numbers make everything near-perfect in terms of taking advantage of it.

Let’s look at how much quantity you actually need and how good the quality of that trash has to be before you start chasing after the junk-wagon with your money.


By the Numbers


~The Horn-bet is composed of the 2, 3, 11, and 12.

~There is one way each to roll a 2 or a 12.

~There is two ways each to roll a 3 or 11.

~The Horn-numbers combine to represent 6-out-of-36 possible dice-outcomes on randomly thrown dice.

~That represents 16.67% of all expected random outcomes.

~The Horn-bet itself pays carries a house-edge of 12.5%.

~A Horn-high 2 or 12 has a house-edge of 12.78%, while a Horn-high 3 or 11 has a house-edge of 12.22%.

~A straight-up bet on the 2 or 12 pays 30-to-1 and carries a house-edge of 13.89%

~A straight-up bet on the 3 or 11 pays 15-to-1 and carries a house-edge of 11.11%

~The Any Craps (2, 3, and 12) pays 7-to-1 and carries a house-edge of 11.11%

~The World-bet (whirl) covers the 2, 3, 11, 12, and 7, and carries a house-edge of 13.33%

When you look at those house-edge figures, you quickly realize that your shooting has to overcome a very tall hurdle in order to overcome the vig. That explains why most astute dice-influencers with modest skill stay away from those center-of-the-table props.



Quantity is One Thing…Quality is Something Completely Different


When we talk about “quality”, we’re really talking about which one of the craps numbers you generally throw the most of. For example, if you throw a preponderance of 3’s, but not 2’s, 11’s, or 12’s; then it doesn’t make any sense to bet the Horn.

Even if you throw what seems like an inordinate number of point-cycle 3’s; you still have to determine whether you throw enough of them to make it economically feasible. It’s also important that you determine how often you are able to throw closely-grouped clusters of those numbers, since the closer they are grouped together; the more exploitable they are.



Quantify Your Edge

The first thing a dice-influencers should to do with any bet or set of bets they are contemplating; is to find out how much of an edge they can normally expect to have over it.

If you are making wagers over which you have no edge; then you do not have an advantage…so it’s not an advantage-play opportunity.

Now let me say something that should go without saying:

~With enough practice, most players can develop a validated advantage over the low-vig bets like the PL w/Odds, and some Place-bets; but when it comes to being able to constantly overcome the vig of an 11% or 13% house-edge bet…then most dice-influencers are sadly mistaken.


~If you can overcome such a high-vig bet with your dice-influencing; then you can make much more money by focusing that same talent on lower-vig wagers where you’ll have an even bigger advantage over the house and where your money is subject to way less volatility.


The rest of this article (and especially Part Two) is focused on those players who CAN steadily beat the house-edge on those high-vig prop bets and who want to make point-cycle prop-bets part of their A-P regimen.



Is There Room in the A-P World for “See a Horn…Bet a Horn”?


~Ten years ago if you asked me that question I would have said, “Uh, that's not for me.”.

~Seven years ago if you asked me that question I would have said, “No”.

~Five years ago if you asked me that same question, I would have said, “Hell NO!”

~Today (and for the last couple of years), I say, “Sometimes yes, but most times no”.

Why the change of heart?

Well, a few years back, Irishsetter proposed assembling a team of skilled shooters to run a progression on the Horn-bet whereby multiple dice-influencers in a row would shoot for Horn-wins.

The idea was to hit a winner before running out of skilled shooters, but in the event that that happened; then they would wait until the first dice-influencer on the team got the dice back into his or her hands before restarting the Horn-bet progression where it left off.

I was encouraged by the success that he reported, and it emboldened me to try the same thing, albeit, strictly on my own shooting and without a team.

To do this on a solo basis, it’s best if you are the lone player at a table. However if there are other random-rollers and you haven’t hit the Horn-progression on your own shooting; then you simply wait for the dice to cycle back around to you before you recommence betting on the Horn.

Though the Horn-Progression isn't strictly based on Heavy's see-a-Horn-number-outcome-and-then-bet-on-the-Horn concept; it's inspiration was clearly sourced back to his original "See-a-Horn-bet-a-Horn" idea.

I played the Horn-Progression for literally hundreds of sessions, but I stopped doing so after several months. Frankly it was starting to attract a little too much attention, even in casinos that have a high loss-tolerance and a laissez-faire attitude. Admittedly I was using some fairly high-dollar wagers to start the Horn-progression with, and on occasion I had to progress my bets to a point where the eventual payoff was very near the table limit.

The thing that it proved to me in the process however, is that even a high-vig gaming lore concept like H’s “See a Horn…Bet a Horn” method, can be a legitimate weapon in your A-P arsenal…as long as you accurately quantify your edge…and as long as that profit-making edge is equal to or greater than the advantage you have on other, lower-vig opportunities.


Coming up…

Part Two of Turning 'Trash' Into Treasure


Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Here's the last part of that counter-point:


Turning 'Trash' Into Treasure
Part Two


Are Advantage-Play Prop-bets an Oxymoron?

"If one or more of your most dominant point-cycle Signature Numbers are "Trash" (2, 3, 11, or 12); should you ignore them completely…or make an occasional bet on them when it seems they might occur in clumps…or do you treat them like any other advantage-play opportunity, albeit a little more carefully because of their prop-pay volatility?"

As a dice-influencer, our job is pretty simple:

~Develop a sustainable edge over the casino by de-randomizing the dice to a point where the house-edge on certain bets is negated and turned into a positive-expectation situation for the player.

~Substantiate that edge through a large enough roll-stat sampling that is big enough to be statistically significant and current enough to be realistic as to your right-here/right-now skill-set.

~Authenticate those findings through in-casino sessions that confirm where your strongest-edge bets are, and validate the profitable sustainability of those wagers.

~Focus the largest portion of your per-hand exposure onto those bets where you have the highest edge, while (if you choose) reserving the smallest portion of your per-hand exposure for those bets where you have the smallest (but still pos-ex) advantage.

~Bet your advantaged-wagers in proportion to your bankroll (by way of a fractional Kelly Criterion), while using at least a portion of your profits to fuel its overall growth.

So is there room in all of that for any “advantage-play prop-bets”, or are A-P Props an oxymoron created by us to rationalize much of our high-risk, low-advantage gambling?

In other words, are prop-bets on our most dominant point-cycle trash-numbers the very antithesis of what low-risk advantage-play is all about?

As I mentioned in Part One of this series; if you have a validated edge over any prop-bets; then you can have a much higher advantage over the lower-risk non-prop box-numbers…and in doing so, you can earn much more profit from each dollar earned DESPITE the high-ratio payouts offered by the props.

How can that be?

Well, the box-numbers have a relatively low house-edge that has to be overcome, while the prop-bets have a high house-edge that has to be surmounted.

When you add in the one-roll win-or-lose decision that each prop-bet is burdened with; you end up with a situation where the same skilled shooter is usually making around 750% less off of his A-P props that he could be by putting the same money in the same ratio on his higher-advantaged box-numbers.

Let’s find out why:

~Let’s say you have a 5% edge over the Place-bet 6 and 8. The house-edge on that wager is 1.5%, so your advantage equates to having bettered the HA by 333%. This wager pays out at 7:6 or $1.17 for every $1 that is wagered and won.

~Let’s also say that you have a 2% edge over the Ace-Deuce 3. The house-edge on that wager is 11.11%, so your advantage equates to having bettered the HA by 18%. This wager pays out at 15:1 or $15.00 for every $1 that is wagered and won.

At first blush, the high payout offered by prop-betting the 1-2 Trey seems to trump the lackluster advantage it has over the house-edge that this bet normally carries.

It’s when you scratch a little deeper that you discover that all is not what it appears to be, and the golden opportunity offered even by such a high payout-ratio prop, dims substantially when compared to what would happen if you handled your money the same way when you bet on an advantaged box-number.

For example, if you triple parlay an Acey-Deucy, that makes for exciting M-board headlines; but how often do you do the same triple parlay on box-numbers where you have an 18.5-times HIGHER advantage?

Now obviously I am NOT advocating parlaying ANY bet; I am simply illustrating how players who play with an advantage often UNDER-bet their most advantaged wagers, while simultaneously OVER-betting their marginally-edged ones.

When you add in the fact that prop-bets are won or lost with each roll of the dice, while box-numbers are only decided either when repeated or the hand ends; you have a situation where box-numbers not only survive an average of 3.5-times longer than a prop-bet; but their apparent low-ratio payout is collected around 250% more often.



Why It Is So Easy To Be Blinded by Point-Cycle Props


It is very easy for an aspiring dice-influencer to be blinded by the prospect of huge riches that can be made off of Prop and Hop bets.

When dice-influencers read or hear about fairly big wins that others players are making off of quintuple parlayed Horn bets, or back-to-back-to-back-to-back Hopping 9’s; they forget that the basis of advantage-play craps is firmly anchored in a fairly narrow band of superiority over the house.

That is, they go in for the kill on some of the center-of-the-table Hops and Props by OVER-betting the small edge that they’ve managed to develop; yet they UNDER-bet their strongest-edge box-numbers to a degree that is truly astonishing.

I’m not sure if it’s because Place-bets no longer provide enough thunder, lightning, and excitement as the high-paying center bets do, or whether their focus is distracted by the pursuit of “quick and easy money” and the ego-gratification that goes along with being able to talk about the time back in 1962 when you hit 38 Horn-numbers in a row.

One thing I am sure of is that if you have an edge over any of the point-cycle trash numbers (2, 3, 11, and 12); then you have an even bigger edge over one or more of the box-numbers.

So if you are really and truly looking to get the most bang for your buck and being able to wring the maximum profit-potential out of every toss; then putting your money on your highest-edged, best-advantaged bets is ALWAYS the right thing for you…and your bankroll.



Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

[dork]

Thank you, MP! I've got a lot of reading to do. Next time you've got a buncha posts/articles to reference, just list the links. I'm more than willing to hunt down the source; it'd save you some time.

Thanks again.

[London Shooter]

The switching sets to generate (in theory) better paying box numbers seems like the best suggestion to me, as above.

Alternatively, how about field betting on a triple pay 12 table rather than betting any craps? Would that not be a better way to go given the much lower HA overall?

[Crapslife]

Dork,

I will shoot for 2,3,11 and 12 on come out, especially if a ATS table. I will bet the world and press if hit ($5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200). I have had world bet pressed up to 100 on numerous occasions. I don't track the world bet to know where I would stand (profit) over time. I only use the world bet on other rollers if I have been able to observe them for a while and they are rolling craps numbers.

One way I like to bet the guys that are rolling a lot of craps numbers is using the field. I know the math says it is not a good bet, but I have made quite a bit of money on rollers who are rolling craps along with outside numbers. In fact, just did it today. I was at French Lick, IN casino. I had placed inside numbers. Old guy was rolling craps and outside numbers. After not getting paid for about 5 rolls, I pulled my 6 & 8 and placed the 4 (had 10 as point) along with the 5 and 9. Guy was rolling 3, 11, 12. So I placed a $5 field and my goal was to let it ride for five consecutive rolls (stacking wins on top of original bet) then taking some profit. So it went as follows (in the field - $5 bet, first roll 9, now $10 bet, second roll 10, now $20 bet, third roll 2, now $60 bet, fourth roll 12, now at $240 - I pulled $180 and left $60 in field and wouldn't you know, the next roll was 3 - pulled another $60 and let $60 ride and next number was an inside number). Should have let it roll 5 times and I would have been at $480.

You don't have to leave it out for five rolls, maybe just go three. Obviously, there are many times it does not work, but I am way ahead on when doing this. I am not normally a field bettor, but sometimes, the dice are telling me to go that route. At least with this option, you have the 4, 9 and 10 to help rather than just betting on the 2, 3, 11, 12. I know their pay out is better when hit, but I like being able to start out with a $5 bet and see what happens in the field.

I'm sure you could have decent results on this roller betting the horn and pressing as well.

However, by the time the old guy was done rolling today, I think I had the world bet working as well and had it pressed up to $50

I was able to do this method of field bet on same shooter next time he rolled. Made it through five consecutive field rolls one more time and had a few times that the field bet made it through three consecutive field rolls.

Don't run into these rollers very often, but when I have, it has been profitable.

Crapslife

[dork]

I will shoot for 2,3,11 and 12 on come out, especially if a ATS table. ...
One way I like to bet the guys that are rolling a lot of craps numbers is using the field. ...

Don't run into these rollers very often, but when I have, it has been profitable.

I never bet the world/horn on other shooters, and I almost never bet the Field. (I probably can count the number of Field bets I've made on RR's over these last almost-4 years.)

But I do like to bet the world when I'm rolling on a ATS table--as you imply, I'm looking to nail the trash numbers before I establish a point. Sometime it works out; the best I've ever done (three times at least) is get to the 4th press bet. My bet is $10, and up $10 each time. I've only started using this strategy in the last 3-4 weeks; maybe I've bet it about 30-40 times. Sooo.. a WAG says I'm in for $400 (not including presses). I'm comfortable with an honest 'gut estimate' that I'm "even". If $400 is accurate, I'm probably ahead. I know that's the short-term scenario; I'm gonna have to track it to see how much advantage I can turn for myself changing the set and using a WOTCO $6 6 & 8. That does sound like a much better play if I am actually influencing anything.

However... your 5x play in the Field is fascinating; I've used the Field when I'm the shooter. I make money there, but I've only played to 2x and regressed. Chicken Little all over again.

[Crapslife]

Dork,

I had one roller one night get past five field rolls in a row three times in one evening (separate turns) First two times he rolled a 12 on the fifth roll and the third time he rolled a 2. Made over $700 on that roller on a choppy table

Another gal rolled two different times that way one night.

As I said, I don't do it often, but when I have, I have had success with it. Sure you will lose some $5 bets that don't make it to five rolls. Sucks when it looses out on the fifth roll. When that happens on a roller that is rolling a lot of field rolls but not five passes, I have dropped it to three passes and had success. I have also found that buying the 4 and 10 for $25 can be profitable as well

If playing a $10 table and the first field bet wins I pull the $10 profit, leaving $10 in field for second roll. Makes it look like a started out with a $5 bet instead of $10, but exposure is $0 since profit was pulled and covered initial bet

[London Shooter]

Crapslife - you are saying the maths isn't good for a field bet, but the HA is loads better than the world bet.

[Crapslife]

London

True. I prefer the world on come out. A hedge against the 2, 3 & 12 with a push on the seven. Pressing of the world bet is jus happenstance of what is being rolled on come out. If a two 2, 3 or 12 rolls, I get funds to replace my pass line bet and to press the world. Eleven I win on pass line and world and seven I win pass line and push on world.

Not something I usually play at any time other than the come out. Sometimes I only use it on my own come out rolls and try to set and hit craps numbers. I will use on another players if there seems to be a lot of craps numbers being thrown on come out. Weird things happen sometimes that you can capitalize on. I have witnessed random roller throw 11, 2, 3, 7, 11, 12 on the come out. Nice payoff if you are on the world and pressing