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# of wins to single loss
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:25 am
by Stilgar
When ONLY considering the initial wager and its payout level (read risk to pso), MP's. $204 across play takes four winning hits to almost break even ($8 loss). If the shooter shows good. Influence by keeping to inside numbers your risk can be modified to $154 inside. Bringing the ratio down to three winning hits to almost break even ($7 loss) against a full pso loss.
Now I may be crazy for asking, but does anyone already know of a betting strategy placing 4 inside numbers that has a better ratio than approx 3:1?
Re: # of wins to single loss
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:07 am
by freak
I've been churning over all these ratios lately and it all seems to have an unavoidable and diabolical symmetry to it. If you drop the outside numbers you risk less to the sevenout true, but also decrease your chances of a fast win that allows you to get two hits and get out. If you drop to just a 6&8 you have a lot less risk but now very few ways to win compared to how much you'll probably push. The more I play the less I seem to have patience for the push. The good news with the inside play is you'll have a CHANCE to get the exact same result with less at risk. If you roll 10 - 6 - 8 and then regress you'll have won the same $98. It MIGHT happen. But it also might go 6 - 10 - 4 and now you're kicking yourself 'cause you COULD have been at regression but aren't. Now you have to decide if you keep trying to hit or take it down and wait for the next shooter.
One variation I tried was just placing the inside, then add $3 each on the hard 4 & 10 and $2 each on hopping the easy 4 & 10. It made me feel better to have the outside covered. And I could take the $6 back off the hard ways if they didn't hit. But like all hedges it was a slow steady bankroll drain. Really frustrating if the first two numbers to roll after the point were horn numbers. These days I'm more attracted to just playing a clean play. You either win or lose. If I'm reaching loss limit I might hedge. I can tolerate very little volatility at that critical point. But in the beginning, no hedging. It's the fastest shot at getting in, up and out.
Re: # of wins to single loss
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:11 pm
by bryfromtheharbor
I have been keeping an eye on these posts Freak thanks for the discussion. I was thinking the same thing Stigular. I tried a few hands, actually one session buy-in with chips on my rig.
My 3 signature numbers and what ever PL point $154 +/-
$42 6&8
$35 9
9 7out
7parlay 4 6 7 damm
then I figured if I'm at $154ish 2 more greens? ok $204
$935 in the rack using MP pressing routine, but using Dice Dr. lock-up moves.
1. Get warmed up first. The BR has to be there when the hot hand comes.
2. don't lay out $204 on every TDaH. Qualified shooters as the Dice Dr. puts it.