Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I jump to the Dont's when I feel the table warrants it. As you'd expect, my eyes light up when I see the 4 or 10. I'll lay double odds (at least) and make a hardway bet as a (partial) hedge and wait quietly for the decision

I met a guy a while back playing the Dont's next to me and he said he never lays odds against the 4 or 10 because of the 1:2 payout.

I always looked at it the other way; e.g. it's about the best bet in the casino. Of course, I've been burnt by the soft 4 or 10 on more than one occasion but I stll think it's the right play.

What say you?

Rollinbones

I never lay the 4 or 10 unless it is warranted by my tracking results. Too much money at risk to win little. However, when the table does warrant a lay bet, I look to lay the 6 or 8 because you get paid much better when the 7 shows.

Speaking of 4s and 10s....does anybody notice that when a soft 10 is rolled on the come-out, the 10 shows up the very next roll! I have seen this happen many times..crazy! Also, I am sure everyone knows the hard 10 phenomenon (hard to believe craps is a completely random game right

There was a time when I passed on the opportunity to lay odds on the four and ten. That is consistent with John Patrick's suggestions and I agree with John on most things related to craps as applied to most (random) rollers. I will say that one of my biggest single hand losses came on a hand when I was laying substantial odds on both the four and ten. The ten rolled and knocked me off that number, and I doubled up on my odds and added a hardway hedge bet, thinking I'd out-smart the dice. Of course, the next toss the dice rolled a hard four. At the end of the day the free odds bet is a zero sum game when betting the randies. You have no advantage on that bet. Patrick's theory is that by laying odds you are betting more to win less. That's what laying odds is. But he goes on to say that laying odds "dilutes" your DP or DC bet. Those are even money bets. His theory is that if you want to win more you need to bet more on the DP or DC instead of laying odds. It is an interesting theory and one that makes sense for players with limited bankroll. The big downside of the free odds bet is increased bankroll variability. Then again, the big upside of the free odds bet is increased bankroll variability. If you can afford to lay (or take) max odds it's the smart play. If you can't - take or lay as much as you are comfortable with withing your bankroll limitations. Just my opinion but I suspect I'm right on this one.

OwnTheFelt wrote: However, when the table does warrant a lay bet, I look to lay the 6 or 8 because you get paid much better when the 7 shows.

Understood, and maybe that's where I make my mistake. I usually just wait for the decision against the 6 or 8 w/o taking odds. When I'm on the dark side they just make me nervous!

Quick story why I don't lay the 4 and 10.Guy next to me is playing the DP and 2 DC'S.If a 4 or ten rolls on his DC bet he no bets it.I asked if I could buy his 4 and 10.He says sure but you'll be sorry.2 to 1 odds and bypass the 7 and 11.Best bet in craps it seemed.I lost 7 out of 8.Didn't seem possible.Of course you know what he said.

Good insight Heavy. Thanks.

Yeah, my conundrum is that when I switch to the dark side my bankroll has usually taken a significant hit. I like to get as much on the DP as possible but surviving that come out roll is daunting. So, I'm often lighter than I like and take the odds when the 4 or 10 show.

rollinbones - look for an article of mine called "Transition Moves." The article has been floating around the net for years. I don't recall if I've cut and pasted it into my Experts Speak articles thread or not. I just looked over on my crapsfest.com website and was shocked to find I'd never posted it there. I know it's on the old dicesetter.com site. If you Google it you'll probably find it. I will try to remember to dig it out of the hard drive and post it in the Experts Speak section tonight. If you'd like to peruse the rest of my articles on crapsfest.com the link is: http://www.crapsfest.com/modules.php?na ... ries&cid=4

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Stratergy for the 4/10 play for the occasional Don't Player( DARK SIDE / WRONG SIDE )

With a $5 RED CHIP behind either $4 or #10 my feeling is let it stand as I am playing D/P or D/C for the reason,I feel that is the strongest choice of play.

When I feel the tide has changed I SWITCH (TRANSISSION) to the DO ( RIGHT)
With that said :
A)you can choose to take zero risk and pull the $5 Red Chip down( It is not a CONTRACT BET )
B) You could risk a $1 White Chip on the Hard Four ( figure the win/loss options on that )
C) With a $15 , $25 DARK SIDE BET( D/P or D/C ) against the #4 or #10 you may choose to BOOK THE HOUSE
By Place Betting or Buy Betting an offseting amount less than the DON'T BET on those numbers.
Your WIN will be on the SPREAD between the DARK SIDE BET and the DO SIDE BET
( example $25 D/P on #4 Place or BUY $20 )

I do not take down DARK SIDE bets against the SIX or EIGHT and am comfortable laying SINGLE ODDS. You could PLACE a lesser amount on the SIX or EIGHT . That is however allowing for a SMALL SPREAD and you will need do such several times over or have a sure enough DEEP POCKET to play big enough to make this worth the effort.

I see the FIVE and NINE as swing numbers and many times elect to neither add a LAY or make an off setting PLACE BET as the math gives me difficulty in real action.

NOTE :When risking your money on the DON'T PASS or DON'T COME on a COME OUT roll,the ODDS are against getting behind a number by about 8 to 3.

After the roll and the number is established,the ODDS switch in favavor of the DARK SIDE .

For this reason , there are DON'T PLAYERS who are happy to pay THE VIG to LAY AGAINST a BOX NUMBER

I hope I was able to say the above correct. If not , there are members far more articulate than I at explaining stratergies.
.....................
I have reached the place , I only flat bet my roll.
When other people are shooting and I want the poini,I now PLACE BET it as I total the FLAT BET and ODDS to see a larger return on the pay out. My thoughts are since this works on subsequent numbers better than COME BETTING why not apply the same thinking to P/L POINT ?

Just Me Saying

W C

The way I am playing "rat now" is to not lay odds .

I do think that laying odds is the correct way to play ,and one of these days , when my bankroll grows into five figures, I will probably begin laying odds.

I do not think of laying odds as "diluting " the Dont wager. I think of laying odds as "enhancing" the Dont wager.

Dealers often ask me why I dont lay odds. I tell them it is because of a bankroll problem.

Dave does not lay odds on the 4 or 10. I agree, for the most part. Dave was banned from a casino for winning too much betting the darkside. He never shot the dice. I like to shoot the dice but I don't lay the 4 or 10. I think Dave got it right.


Golfer

As promised, the Transition Moves article has been posted. This will get you there:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=8&p=2759#p2759

Heavy - Excellent read. Thanks.

May give it a try in AC tomorrow

It's been a long, dry spell, but when I play it is from the Dont's. Heck, this last time I even shot my first set from the Dont's. At least until I made my 2nd point.

As for laying the 4/10, I play it by ear. If the shooter is all over the place, and I am comfortable with where my session bankroll is at, I will lay if the shooter tosses 2 of the number. If he/she is more controlled, I will hold out for a third. I don't place very many lay bets, but I would estimate I win 4 out of every 5.

As for DP/DP, I tend to vascillate between 2 or 3 bets in play, and rarely will replace one that is knocked down. My last trip was 3 minimum bets, though I'm thinking my 3rd should have been equal to the first two, combined. I rarely, if ever, lay odds.

I'm also not one for the inside bets. When I get to the casino, it is often with a limited bankroll, and I just hate the thought of a 7-out knocking down my insides without a single hit...

Be carfull on the four and ten.

I burnt more than one guy up doing that one night at the nugget my first three points where the 4 made them after the third loss the guy next to me converted the point was the ten.

The story goes like this guy n the corner colored more than a hunderd k and the converted dont player hunted me down asking they really let you shot like that i said yes at most places there are a couple that i am not allowed to play at.

Heavy you bring up this dilution situation and its a interesting discussion. For example a DP 10.00 place bet w/40.00 in odds (point of 4) vs a 50.00 DP place bet. Sure makes that come out roll very interesting.
Speaking of the 4 and 10, I recently observed a player at a crowded table with a constant bet of 1k on the no 4, then,shortly after I arrived, he put on a 125.00 hedge on the hard 4. I was not able to tell how he was doing in the long haul,as I only saw maybe 4 wins, and 2 losses. I think what stood out is that he never hesitated to keep the bet on. Has anyone observed anything similiar to this?

I observed a gent laying the four and ten on every shooter for $100, working on the come out. If he got whacked he would double the four and 10 and just keep going. He also played a minimal iron cross. It was a $5 table and he had one unit on the 5,6 and 8 and bet $5in the field.

It was really weird, why bother with the iron cross? At one point he dug a roll of bills out of his pocket but the seven finally showed. The table cooled off a bit and he made most of his money back. I could really feel his pain as the 4's and 10's were abounding. You just think, "How can this be?"

Guess if you are around long enough you will see it all

Bones

Bones wrote:I observed a gent laying the four and ten on every shooter for $100, working on the come out. If he got whacked he would double the four and 10 and just keep going.

Way back in the olden days (a couple years ago, or so) I ran some tests betting along these lines. As I recall, I had good results playing a 3-step progression on laying the 4/10. $40, $80, $120. Or even 40-90-150 would work. More so when I let the shooter hit at least one 4/10 before laying the bet.

The first problem is the wait for a 'qualified' shooter, and then for me - bankroll. I hesitate playing $22 inside, let alone laying $41. hehe. Maybe someday I can get to a level where I can play that progression.

Thinking about this, this morning, I realized that the posted progressions don't really work. Maybe another reason my bankroll could never afford it...that third step would need to be about $240...

I usually don't care if someone bets the don'ts when I'm shooting.My last trip a guy was betting a $500 dp and $1000 odds.That kind of upset me.I threw a come out 7-11-7 cost him $4500.His next dp was $25.Hee Hee

WOW amazing lmao.