Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

OK - this is not a new strategy, a new system, a new theory, the latest scam to sell an eBook or any other rigmarole you may see out there. This is just me...Tommy D....trying to elevate my game and find a methodology I can build on, be comfortable with and make a profit with while at the table.

I have been devouring the content within the pages of this forum and around the inter-webs trying to grasp various concepts and theories on how to bet, when to bet and how much. I understand bankroll management, loss and win limits, time at table, betting on the randies and am confident I have the discipline to implement a battle plan and stay with it...and I have the bankroll to work with.

Up until now I have been - as MP refers to - a Collect-Press type of bettor. My typical method would be to:

• Min-bet the PL

• Set the point

• Take 3-4 unit odds

• Place 6 and/or 8 for table minimum

• If PT was 6/8 I'd place either the 5 or 9 for table minimum

At a $15 table this meant I'd have $63-$71 in play. I would then look to cover my bets with 3-4 hits before I'd start pressing and I would use a press 1-collect-press 1 strategy. This has been working for me and has been profitable...as long as I am hitting inside numbers and I make it pass my average roll. Which isn't happening often.

As I have been reading these forums about ISR, MP204 and other betting techniques it was clear my method was doomed to - at best - give me pennies in winnings over the long haul. My momentary winnings were more based on a streak of long hands then they were on my DI skill. Reading through posts by MP, Heavy and Freak - it became abundantly clear I was leaving way more money out there then I needed to as I tried to catch that lightening in the bottle of a long numbered hand. And I was not capitalizing on my 2-3 signature numbers or any type of table trend.

So the search and test began to find something that worked for me.

MP204 - I'm not there yet...hope to be some day but that's a big bet for me right now. A little more bankroll cushion and I will push towards that - but I like the theory and I liked the outcomes Freak has shown with the LittleMP.

Here is my variation. It fits my style of play, bankroll, threshold for risk and desire for more action. Sharing here to lay it out and have anyone who wishes poke holes in, tell me I'm a fool or offer improvements.

But first let's make some assumptions.

• $10 Table

• $500 Buyin

• SRR of 7.69 (on practice rig)

• Would only use this on myself

• All Sevens on the CO

• 44 Up 55 Facing BW

• Min PL with 2x Odds

Here's my play

• Once point is set Place $30 6 & 8 and $25 5 & 9 (except point).

• After 2 hits regress to $12 on 6 & 8 and $10 on 5 & 9.

• I can get a run of 4/10's with this set - and may Place 4 and/or 10 for $10 and buy for $25 on first hit. But this is like a prop bet to me and based on feel of the moment.

• After regression Press 1 Unit every other hit

My Math
If point is 6 or 8 I'd have $110 in play ($10 PL, $20 Odds, $25 Place bet on 5 & 9, $30 Place bet on the 6 or 8). Two hits pays $70, regress leaves $62 on the table - a profit of $8 no matter what happens next.

If point is 5 or 9 I'd have $115 in play ($10 PL, $20 Odds, $25 Place bet on 5 or 9, $30 Place bet on the 6 & 8). Two hits pays $70, regress leaves $64 on the table - a profit of $6 no matter what happens next.

If point is 4 or 10 I'd have $140 in play ($10 PL, $20 Odds, $25 Place bet on 5 & 9, $30 Place bet on the 6 & 8). Two hits pays $70, regress leaves $74 on the table - a -$4 loss no matter what happens next.

The play is at risk to rolls shorter then 3, made of garbage or if outside is only hitting - so would need to adjust in the moment. Knowing that with a SRR of 7.69 I believe my thinking is correct that I should - on average - have point-cycle rolls of 7+ before 7’ing-Out.

So now I am trying to work through the post regression press-collect phase. I do plan once the pressing reaches the $25-$30 and 1 $35 paying hit to regress again and start the process over again on that number. But that would mean I have to hit each inside number 4 times to reach that point - unlikely except in the cases of a mega roll.

In practice I have had hand profit of up to $200 and losses up to $200 (loss limit).

Be interested in peoples thoughts/opinion. Feel free to tear it apart. War-gaming this as I prepare for my Vegas trip over Christmas.

Tommy D

Looks an interesting play Tommy and will be interesting to see how this develops and what more experienced others think.

"so would need to adjust in the moment" - what sort of adjustments do you have in mind here if a lot of outside box and trash numbers are hitting.

Is your stop loss really only $200? If so and you PSO'd on your first hand for example, then in placing bets on the second hand you are already potentially going over this limit.

I agree with LS. You're betting at least $110 on the first roll. Too much for a $200 loss limit. You could simply change to accepting a $250 loss limit or only put $15 each on the 5&9. Or use a $600 buy-in with $300 loss limit. No point in starting with rules that are going regularly to get broken OR not give you a chance to win. Make firm rules you can live with and stick to them. I also think you need to have more of a profit at regression. You ARE going to have some PSOs. You need profit from some average hands to keep you in the game. It will really suck to get three hands of +$8 +$8 +$6 and then a PSO. Regress to $34 for one roll after regression. Hopefully you get a hit. But hit or not regress to $12 6&8 after that one roll post-regression. If you 7out then you have $20 - $50 in profit. If you do catch a long hand chances are it will hit at least one of those numbers along the way and you can build up and out with winnings. But I have found through experience that it is much better (profit wise) to over-regress versus under-regress. Yes it will suck to roll 5 - 5 - 9 - 9 - 4 - 9 with only money on the 6&8, but more often than not you'll be playing to LOSE LESS after regression not to WIN MORE. You will still do OK on a really good 25+ roll hand. It will have some 6&8s in there. Or if you want to bet the 5 & 9 move the money. Regression RATIO is the key to having a chance with the ISR play. Be willing to risk your $100 for a few rolls, but after that keep at least half of your profit in the rack.

I've used that play when I'm ahead or when DR is not with me, but it can be a killer with PSOs. I now do roughly the same thing but start at 66 inside.

LS & Freak....great point on loss limit. The loss limit I noted was just what I was war-gaming with but considering the max bet is $140 then my loss limit would need to be $280. I had planned on $200 at a $500 buyin but $300 at $600 works too.

Freak so if I understand correctly, your suggestion is to regress down to $22-$24 (depending on the point) which means a guaranteed profit of $18-$32 again depending one point. Interesting thoughts and I will factor that into my test.

When you mention regression ratio is there an optimal ratio you should shoot for?

LS - What I am referring to when I say adjust in the moment is that while I would welcome complete predictability in my toss we all know that does not happen - so if I am noticing the 10 is showing up more frequently I am may slide one of the inside numbers that is not hitting at its normal frequency to the 10 to take advantage of that trend.

I see two 'faults/weaknesses' with your descriptions. $200 isn't enough for a loss limit. I'm buying in with the same exact amount, $500. My home SSR is about the same as yours. My loss limit is 2 consecutive PSO's or $400 (which I've never approached without consecutively PSO'ing). I bet "MP$204" only on myself. My system is $5PL, 5x Odds 4/10, 6x Odds 5/9, 8x Odds 6/8, with an Across bet of $179/$169/$162 depending on the point. My regression after two hits is usually 5x, down to $26/27 Across including a PL Odds reduction to $10, sometimes $54/56, still $10 PL Odds. Obviously, you can't go as low as these numbers on a $15 table.

If $15 is your only option I suggest cold turkey and just practice for 3 or more session periods. That is to say, stop playing until you amass enough to triple your stakes. If you usually play once a month, skip two months and go in with the $1500, but raise your loss limit to 2 PSO's and start out at $408 in order to reduce to $66 Inside. (If you're simultaneously betting an ATS or Fire, I think y'oughta have $2-500 in reserve just to lay against a last box point if needed.)

My opinion is, MP's Regression scheme only works well with a 5x reduction; the PSO's are tough enough to recover from at "$204" to $26/27 Across; I can't imagine clearing less money than ~ $50 on a PPSO. Your numbers, as has been said, only leaves a margin of error of ~$8. That, plus the $200 loss limit would conspire to keep you off the table with one bad incident. It takes 4 PPPSO's to recover from a single PSO with my $26/27 scheme; you can't recover from a PSO with an $8-profit scheme, even if your limit was higher.

I would suggest even more minimum until you are dialed in on the table, then make a run for the roses. There are some table you will never be able to tame but when you can have a table that fits your toss and you are getting 6-7 rolls per hand minimum, then goose it up a bit. Second, dork mentioned a parlay system where you parlay one number only, the one you are repeating, and that might work for you. Just my thoughts.

Hey dork....thanks for the thoughts.

I agree with the loss limits - and would be using 2 x PSO as my marker so in this scenario that would be $280. I have a large enough bankroll to withstand several sessions of PSO if that where to happen. Although I don't typically drop my bankroll more than $1000 in any one day.

$15 tables are not my only option it was just want I tended to gravitate towards since the $10 table at Cherokee are typically packed. If I can find sparse tables at $5 or $10 those are my preference since I will get to shoot more often. In Vegas that's a lot easier to find if you are willing to move around.

I am trying to incorporate the ISR theory with MP's thoughts on playing your signature numbers. The home practice shows me that 8,9,6,5 are the numbers are hit with the highest frequency (in that order). And eventho I can get a run of 10's on occasion it's not enough to make it a candidate for my initial place numbers I think.

The 5x regression is valuable information - is that solely to create more profit after hit #2? Would it make sense in my scenario to take 3 hits?

TommyD wrote:Hey dork....thanks for the thoughts.

I agree with the loss limits - and would be using 2 x PSO as my marker so in this scenario that would be $280. I have a large enough bankroll to withstand several sessions of PSO if that where to happen.

You shouldn't have to. If your SSR is a strong 7, I think 2-3 sessions should be plenty enough to recoup a two-consecutive PSO's outing. I know it's mathematically possible, but I think extremely improbable to stack 3 consecutive sessions 2PSO-to-2PSO-to-2PSO. Hope I don't live to regret typing that...

Although I don't typically drop my bankroll more than $1000 in any one day.

I don't understand the statement. The term "bankroll" is commonly used on this forum as the entire total money limit you're willing to risk playing craps over your lifetime. 'Buy-in' is the term I used meaning the money I throw down when I join a table. 'Session stake' is comparable. If you mean $1000 is the near-maximum amount you've lost routinely in any one day, my opinion is, your betting scheme is invalid for your dice delivery and SSR. That's assuming that you're betting only on yourself.

$15 tables are not my only option it was just want I tended to gravitate towards since the $10 table at Cherokee are typically packed. If I can find sparse tables at $5 or $10 those are my preference since I will get to shoot more often. In Vegas that's a lot easier to find if you are willing to move around.

Down here in Mississippi, I'm more fortunate than the majority on this board I think, because the average table minimums are so low. There's lots of reasons for that; all demographic and economic. So the craps clientele is a smaller population. That said, (especially during the summer) the $5 tables here can be full 22 hours of the day. Even the $10 tables shut down for a few hours when it's slow. I haven't seen $15 tables; they go right from $10 to $25. I've taken to comping a room overnight on a M-Thur and playing between 0530-0800. (That's when the $10 tables are closed. I dunno how long they're closed because I'm never at the tables to see them open/close.) Even on the weekends those 0530-0800 hours seem to be the best times to find "empty" tables. I limit my 'companionship' to 3 other shooters. Usually, 3 RR can't keep the dice away from me for more than 5-15 minutes. (I'll be posting soon about how I incurred consistent and terrible losses; these never happened during the early morning. I've come to view this time as my personal casino-encounter "employment-hour[s] schedule" .)

I am trying to incorporate the ISR theory with MP's thoughts on playing your signature numbers. The home practice shows me that 8,9,6,5 are the numbers are hit with the highest frequency (in that order). And eventho I can get a run of 10's on occasion it's not enough to make it a candidate for my initial place numbers I think.

The biggest 'problem' with the ISR theory is finding an acceptable working value. $204 is a LOT of money for me to walk up and expose to 2 box number rolls; "I'm just not that good a DI"... but I don't have to be, and that's the beauty of it. Not to spout an over-confidence, but a RR has a pretty good chance of consistently rolling one box number, and my mid-7-to-low-8 SSR should afford me a high percentage of valid seconds--an extremely higher percentage of PPPSO hits than PPSO's . So in actuality, $204 is more affordable than a consistent $54 Across 4-hit scheme to break even (4.6 actually, I think--I don't remember the exact math). With that train of thought, I see the 'problem' posed by lesser initial-value ISR's as one of 'recoup-erability'... it's tough to recover say, $110/115, unless you're regressing to one-fifth values-- $17 Inside w/$5PL $10 Odds--that'd take about four 2-hit "winning" ISR's to generate money equal to a single PSO. It'd be much like the challenge a Don't bettor faces when s/he loses a Lay bet on the 4/10, except it's twice as bad. But our exposure is finite--2 box hits; or even less, if we decide (as I describe later) that we should have taken down 'early' after a 1-hit payoff.

To the signature number--I'm not quite at the point of experience where I can define specifically that I have a SN. I suspect mine is the 9; I use a x6's set; theoretically, the back-wall numbers on the dice are my best reoccurring, but as with you, it's just a suspicion--depending on the day, I'm 3 numbers Inside--6,8,9, or 5,6,8. That means that I have a "50/50" chance of completely missing the right number if I don't let the dice tell me... and I don't like to lay out too much money; I'm not good enough to keep piling up profits because I can keep expecting to roll. Typically, I'll have chosen one 'hero' number; I'll let the dice chose the number (Inside--rarely the 4/10 unless they come consecutively, ala.. CO 6, 4, 4, 4...) That hero number I'll parlay 4x on a $26/27 Across, and 3x on a $54/56 Across. Everything else gets 'up one unit'. On those 4th and 3rd parlays, I'll regress the number to $10 (or more recently, $24). By the time of the regression, usually some other number is mounting a campaign, and I'll have to decide if I wanna let it ride, or move most of its' bet to the recently regressed number.

The 5x regression is valuable information - is that solely to create more profit after hit #2?

Yes. If I could afford it, I'd start with a higher initial bet, so's my regression could be a ratio of at least 6- or 7-to-1. I've even thought a coupla times when I'm ahead by $200... 'double down--bet $408Across; ONE hit and regress to $26/27'--but I haven't had the nerve. I'm more greedy than to take a chance with won money. "It's mine now. No second chances allowed for the casino to recoup it." That 'logic' may not make sense, but it does to me. But if I could, I'd play $408 for one hit. Four profit hands and I might go back to two hits.

Would it make sense in my scenario to take 3 hits?

For a proper answer to that you'll need Mad Dog, Irish, MP or Heavy. My gut says 'no'. Twice I've lost count because of distractions or felt so good about my throw that I let the $204 ride for a 3rd box hit, but my general feel is that as a high 7's SSR shooter, I'm probably right at the cusp--2.5 hits seems to be where I'm rolling now. While I can count the number of times I've rolled for 3 hits (2 times), I can't tell you how many times I've 7'd out right after the regression; I bet it's 5-6x in about 6 casino visits. It's not a lot, but it's enough to keep me timid. In my last outing, I resisted the urge to 'take me down' after 5 rolls--CO of 6; trash, 4, trash, trash... I thought, "just one more box number and down; I can do that". I violated the "rules"--6 rolls to hit two box numbers is a long time; and I paid $160 for the privilege when I 7'd on the 6th roll. Three hits can take a while. 'On average', I think it's beyond our SSR.

I'd be very interested to read divergent views, because I'm just firing off the cuff; I have almost no math experience to back me up. There's a ton of guys who'll know better (authoritatively).

Hey Dork - Thanks again for the thoughtful response and I apologize for such a long delay in responding back - good old life getting in the way

I don't understand the statement. The term "bankroll" is commonly used on this forum as the entire total money limit you're willing to risk playing craps over your lifetime....

What I meant by dropping more than $1000 in any one day is that is my loss limit across all my gambling activities - craps, BJ, poker, sports betting and sometimes slots although very rarely. It is a cumulative loss. Some days you can't win no matter what you do at any game - down a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there and the next thing you know you are down a grand. So the $1000 is my daily casino loss limit...not in any one game. I have only hit that daily limit twice thankfully. (knocks on wood).

I have been war-gaming this betting scenario all week - trying 2 hits vs 3 hits, making it a $5 table vs a $10 table (so I could have a steeper regression) and I have even compared this play to the one MP posted the other day ($118 across) and my conclusion for me in practice is that 3 hits is the sweet spot. That gives me $31-$42 profit after the regression. Since my average hand right now is 4.5-5 rolls it's a fair bet to reach this goal. I have also integrated MP's Passive-Aggressive press schedule.

My practice rig simulation so far using my scenario ($110-$140 inside, Min PL with 2x Odds, regress to 1 unit after 3 hits, passive-aggressive pressing) starting with a $500 buy-in has resulted in a gross profit of $1589 after 27 hands. I had 2 hands that were were 2 PSO's and I treated those just as I would in the casino and walked away from the rig for a bit or even the day. One thing I did not do was track the rolls during these sessions - which I wish I had.

I have 2 weeks until Vegas so I will continue to practice this and see where it lands.

Thanks for all the great feedback.

TommyD

$15 games can be a bit of a pain if you're on a limited bankroll. You could play $66 inside for one hit, then regress to an $18 six and eight. That would leave you with $15 in sevens exposure after the regression. If you don't get a hit on the six or eight in the next couple of rolls then take the action down and wait for a do-over on the next shooter.

I'd just go with an $18 six and eight from the beginning if playing the right side. Forget the other numbers unless you see a strong indicator that you should bet them - e.g. a dice setter who has a decent looking toss keeps tossing tens - you'd want to get on the ten - but the six and eight should pretty much always be part of your plan.

You could, of course, do a hybrid play with a $25 Pass Line bet and a $20 Don't Pass. Just saying.

If we're talking about playing Vegas during tourist time (weekends) then I'd strongly consider a $25 Don't Pass followed by a $15 DC or two. No lay unless one of my bets got knocked off - in which case I'd probably lay $30 each on the numbers. Then again, do that and all of the sudden you have over $100 on the table. However you can't lose all of those bets on one roll. They each have to repeat before you lose them all. Whereas you win them all when the seven shows and you can always take the lay odds down if things go poorly.