Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:57 am**

Yesterday,at a Lake Charles,LA casino I had $5 on the firebet.

The shooter had made 4 points and established the 5th point which was a 6. I kept my place bets up except those on the 6,laid the 6 for $300 and put $50 on the hard 6.

The shooter came right back and rolled the hard 6.

Then the shooter established the 6th point which was a 10. I kept all my place bets up except on the 10 which I laid for $1500 and put $200 on the hard 10.

Unfortunately the shooter rolled 4 more times;did not hit the 10 and sevened out.

Question-how would you have played this roll?

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:18 am**

I agree with six shooter on this one. Last time I was on the table when a six number fire was rolled (thanks to Hinduman) I did a small lay on the 5th point and a lay sufficient enough to score a decent win if the sixth number didn't roll. Of course, it cost me part of my Fire Bet win - but at that point I didn't care because I'd made more money off his hand by simply betting the numbers than I did off the Fire bet. Sounds like you did well.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:50 am**

I am generally in agreement with SixShooter and Heavy on the whole Fire-bet hedging issue; however, let me present as fair and balanced a perspective from BOTH sides of the hedging an F-bet coin..and then take the discussion waaay beyond that point.

A Word About Hedging Your Potential Fire-bet Wins

I will readily admit that I used to start to hedge my Fire-bet wins once I hit the first-tier fourth different PL-Point 25:1 payout level in anticipation that I wouldn't be able to repeat my fifth different PL-Point. However, it didn’t take long to realize though, that in doing so, it was almost as if I was planning for failure.

If you plan to fail, you usually do.

I mean, I was reaching the Fire-bet's first-tier level about 5% of the time (1 out of 20 hands), so with a cost of -$100 and a minimum gross-revenue of at least +$125, and a net-profit of at least +$25 if none of my hands ever even went past this point; the additional cost of hedging that win-amount was terribly inefficient.

The only thing that hedge-betting accomplishes at the first-tier 25:1 level for an advantaged shooter, is to reduce your net earnings to next to nothing.

Sure, you can take solace and comfort in the fact that you won a couple of bucks regardless of the outcome from that point forward. However, when you look at what you will generally earn if you played those hands out without a hedge versus what you win when you do have a hedge in place...your net overall winnings will always be less than if you let your D-I advantage over the house work itself out.

Again, I’ll readily admit that even up to about six or seven years ago, if I managed to get to the second-tier 250:1 fifth different PL-Point level, that would be my trigger to wager a hedge-bet against making that fifth Point, figuring the hedge would do more good than harm…or at least not as much harm as hedging my first-level wins would.

Of course, I was still wrong.

All it took to figure it out was to sit down with pen and paper, and honestly appraise what my D-I advantage was offering versus what my hedge-bets were deducting.

Even though only about 1.7% of my Fire-bet hands were successfully reaching the second-tier five-different-PL-Points 250:1 payout level; my hedge-bets were actually costing me way more than they were ‘saving’.

Let me show you why:

Out of 1000 Fire-bet hands that I was throwing, I was only reaching the second-tier payout around 17 times.

That seems like a pretty low hit-rate doesn't it.

Frankly it is, but even at that seemingly negligible level, an un-hedged Fire-bet is much more valuable than a hedged one.

Even if you ignore all the hands where I collected on at the first-tier 25:1 level (the ones that never made it to this second-level), as well as the far fewer ones that eventually went on to successfully complete the third-tier 1000:1 level; these second-tier winners carried their own betting-weight with great aplomb.

For example, in taking those 1000 average hands where the gross $5 F-bet cost comes to -$5,000; my second-tier Fire-bet wins were generating +$21,250 in gross revenue…thereby creating a net-profit of +$16,250 for this level alone.

All it took to figure that out was an honest appraisal of what my D-I skills were making for me…and how much my unjustified hedge-betting was taking away from me.

When you start hedging, you start diluting your winning hands…and adding even more cost to your losing hands.

Now there are lots of guys out there who are strong proponents of hedge betting, and they’ll tell you that they’d rather have a guaranteed $1 win in a situation as I outline above, than to suffer any loss by not hedging. However, they almost never look at the overall cost of what it takes to get that guaranteed $1 win.

Let’s say that you figured out the perfect hedge-play for the times when your Fire-bet reaches the second-tier 250:1 payout level; so that no matter what, you will have a guaranteed $1 win…but never anything more.

That means that upon successfully reaching this level, you would earn a guaranteed $1 no-matter-what for all of your troubles…and never more than that...but also, never less than that either.

So, of the 17 times that this shooter reaches that point, he collects $17...and it is a guaranteed perfectly-hedged $17 that comes his way no matter what happens next. Hey but what about the $16,250 in net-profit that he would have made without hedge-betting?

Well, he gave all of that up to get a guaranteed win.

Now obviously I have used an outrageous example to illustrate my point, but the fact is and the fact remains, that when you hedge one possible win at a given F-bet level; then, by it’s very nature, the guaranteed win will always be less than the possible-win minus the cost of the hedge.

In plain English, for the skilled dice-influencer, that means your guaranteed-win will always make you far less overall net-profit than what you would win if you let the possible-win/possible-loss scenario play out over a reasonable number of trials.

Again, when you hedge, you not only dilute your profits on the hands that win, and add costs to the hands that lose; but you also reduce the net advantage-play benefits that your D-I skills are offering.

Hedging reduces your net-edge over the house.

Sure, you can bet on every horse in every race to get a guaranteed 'win'; but that is not what advantage-play dice-influencing is all about.

By giving dice-influencer’s a false “At least I won SOMETHING” sense of accomplishment; hedging takes the sting out of losing any given hand, but the cost is always net-negative in comparison to what you would have won had you let that D-I advantaged tier-level play itself out over a reasonable number of trials.

Hedge-betting dilutes and erodes your win-potential…all at a cost that ends up at least tripling or even quadrupling the house-edge against you.

If you think the already usurious -20.7% house-edge on the Fire-bet is high; hedging your potential F-bet winnings on the 4th, 5th, or 6th PL-Point to ‘insure’ your win; actually amplifies and multiplies the house-advantage into the -60% to -85% range.

Talk about giving away most of what your D-I talents have given you…hedge-betting is a perfect way to give nearly all of your advantage away.

However, Having Just Said Those Things about hedge-betting…

Now that I’ve got that “hedge-betting-is-bad” statement out of the way, let me show you how I turn that whole concept completely upside down.

I have come up with a way to make more money by deliberately NOT making my sixth and final Fire-bet PL-Point (after qualifying to collect the max-pay at the second-tier five-different-PL-Point level by overlaying the F-bet for $20).

I do that by intentionally lay-betting AGAINST the sixth different Fire-bet Point, not as a hedge, but as a straight-forward advantage-play.

Again, this approach is not an insurance kind of hedge against not making the third-tier 1000:1 payout; rather it is a deliberate effort to make even more money beyond the amount that I am guaranteed to collect from my second-tier max-limit F-bet payout.

In other words, if I have already successfully repeated five different PL-Point repeaters in the same hand with an Overlayed $20 Fire-bet (in casino’s that allow an overlay and where their maximum payout on this wager is $5,000); then I try to intentionally set that sixth different PL-Point, but not with the intent of repeating it, but rather with the intent of losing it to a deliberate Lay-bet-winning 7-Out.

The difference between hedging a possible third-tier sixth-different-PL-Point F-bet win and OVER-Hedging it so that 7-ing-Out will win you even more, is what this part of my Fire-bet advantage-play approach is all about.

Obviously if my next PL-Point is one that I’ve already completed, then I simply continue betting and collecting from my Passline w/Odds and Place-bets as normal.

However, if I do establish that sixth different PL-Point; then my betting strategy changes completely, and here's why.

Because the F-bet win-amount is capped at $5,000 in most casinos; you can't derive any additional benefits from this wager if you try to repeat that sixth different PL-Point.

No benefit = no advantage.

So you have to turn the situation on its head, and make it so that you can still derive further benefit from your current hand.

The Mad Professor’s Fire-bet Over-Hedge

Instead of shooting FOR that sixth different PL-Point repeater, I Lay-bet heavily AGAINST it.

If you have a validated edge over the dice as a Rightsider; then you have at least as strong of an edge as a Darksider (in fact, I would argue that your Dark-edge can be even greater since you only need to have an advantage over ONE number on the D-side of the betting equation, as opposed to needing an edge over several numbers on the R-side of things).

By switching over to the pre-verified dice-set that produces the highest number of intentional 7’s for your own personal toss-dynamics (and not merely because you’ve heard that a particular set ‘should’ do that); then you can proceed to Over-Hedging that sixth and final F-bet Point.

How much you bet against that sixth and final PL-Point is entirely up to you. Your own session buy-in, overall gaming bankroll, and your personal bet-tolerance should be the primary guide in matters like this.

The important thing is that you make the most of every profit-opportunity that comes along, and to my mind, at least for my own shooting, Over-Hedging the Fire-bet's sixth and final Point makes a lot of sense…and a lot of additional profit.

Again, always remember that the Fire-bet is a terrible wager when a random-roller has the dice…but you already knew that. However, in the hands of a skilled shooter, the Fire-bet can possibly insert a certain amount of added-value to your de-randomizing abilities.

MP

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:12 am**

Good thoughts MP.

I only use the hedge to cover my existing bets.
An example would be, if I had $100 in total bets in play, my lay would pay $100.
I still get a nice pay out when the Firebet hits.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:06 pm**

Come on MP who in the real world is betting a $20 firebet if the particular casino only gives you a $5000 max payout? Are they even allowed to do that - surely they just limit the max fb stake to 1/1000th of the max payout?

Also in your scenario can you not end up in a massive hole if your overlay loses in that bringing home the 6th fb point does not net you any extra winnings as you have already reached the max 5k payout by the 5th point?

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:49 pm**

Hi LondonShooter,

Great question.

You'll recall that I went to great pains to point out several times in that piece that we were specifically talking about casinos that ALLOW an overlay on the Fire to a max-payout of $5000 (or who allow F-bets greater than $5, of which there are quite a number).

~The central idea behind the Fire-bet overlay is to bet at a F-bet level so that the fifth (not the sixth) unique Point would bring you up to around the $5k max-payout level (thus guaranteeing 'at least' a $5k payday)...and then betting against the sixth F-bet point to a max-exposure of $5,000; so that even if you were unfortunate enough to unwittingly repeat your 6th unique F-bet point, you would still break-even.

The over-arching concept is that your DI-skills would profitably redeem themselves on the F-bet overlay (+$5000) plus whatever you earn by 7'ing-out before repeating your sixth F-bet point (thus offering a further blended-average gain of +$3,300 less Lay-vig).

In effect, that would give you roughly an $8,300 gain for repeating FIVE unique Fire-bet points, as opposed to generating $5,000 for repeating SIX unique Fire-bet point (minus whatever you decide to hedge against the fifth and sixth points if you use a traditional hedge-approach).

Like I said at the top of that article, it is waaaay out there in terms of concept, but nonetheless, I still consider it an alternative play to a pure-hedge.

MP

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:56 pm**

Lol and just think of all the new friends you could make if others around the table have the FB running and watch incredulously as you set for the 7

Ok whilst I am still docked on planet MP, would it not be better to have $200 on the FB initially and then use the 5th point as the overlay? I guess it depends on which of the firebet pay off stages offers the best relative return? No doubt you have done the figures on this at some stage.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:15 pm**

London Shooter wrote:Lol and just think of all the new friends you could make if others around the table have the FB running and watch incredulously as you set for the 7

If you want a new friend, buy a dog.

Seriously though, LondonShooter, most of the players gathered around a craps table don't know the difference between preferred stock and livestock; so it's doubtful that many of them would even come close to recognizing a permutation of the Straight-Sixes (S-6) or Parallel-Sixes (P-6) dice-set.

In terms of the Lay-bet portion of the F-bet overlay-hedge on the sixth unique point; that simply blends in with any other players who are hedging their bets with Lay-bets as well.

I've never tried anything beyond a $20 Fire-bet wager, though I understand that quite a number of mid-west joints allow up to $25 on that bet.

MP

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:33 pm**

The highest I saw in Vegas was $10 Firebet.
Up here where I play is $5 at all places.
$25 would be great even at four or five points.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:04 pm**

I was able to complete five numbers to the fire bet at the Horseshoe, Southern Indiana three weeks ago. This casino will allow a max bet of $25 for the shooter with $1 for the dealers with the same tier of payouts of 25:1, 250:1, and 1,000:1. I had a $15 fire bet for me and a $1 bet for the dealers in play. I needed as my sixth number the 10. I did make the 10 on the come-out to establish my sixth number. I did not hedge the bet for the reason that MP mentioned of not wanting to create conflicting goals (my goal was to collect a $15,000 win on a $15 bet). I believe in the future if I am fortune to find myself in this situation again, I will create a hedge bet to create a greater potential payout. I see it this way: I had $15 at risk; I had locked up a $3,750 win on making the fifth number; I had thrown a greater number of box numbers without the 7 showing on any come out rolls; I had a very nice margin of the difference between my already won $3,750 win and the potential $15,000 win for the 6th number win to cover the loss of the hedge bet; and lastly the odds of a seven around the corner were greater than the 6th number showing.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:06 pm**

I don't understand why anyone would make a fire bet no matter what their SSR is? I figure that money is better invested in odds, sixes and eights or whatever you signature number is. The house edge and volatility are much lower and I already pay my accountant way too much money without giving him more W2G's from 6 point firebets.

A person with a limited bankroll should definitely avoid the firebet in my opinion.

With that being said, last night at the blackjack table a player asked the dealer what to do with his pair of 9's against a dealer 9. The dealer looked at me and asked me to tell him what to do, so I gave my standard answer. The proper play is to split them but it's not my money so you do whatever you want to do.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:11 pm**

I think we are digressing;The purpose of this post is not to debate the merits of a firebet ;The question is given one has a $5 firebet how would one play the roll once the 5th and 6th numbers were established? As a clarrification it was a random roller .

Thank you for the diverse responses;as one can see the fun part of playing craps is there are many ways to attack the game.

Posted: **Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:30 pm**

"The question is given one has a $5 firebet how would one play the roll once the 5th and 6th numbers were established?"

No hedges for me. I'd just keep on East coast pressing the box numbers that hit, and a pass line with odds for the dealers.

Posted: **Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:34 am**

obie1 wrote: However, MP makes some good points..., even though he did stray from what you presented and the feedback you asked for.

If Heavy wants to arbitrarily erase my replies because they strayed slightly from the answer Kumar was looking for; I'm sure H knows where the 'delete' key is....as long as he holds everyone else to the same standard.

MP

Posted: **Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:39 am**

MP's math model which says not to hedge is probably correct however like Irish says the probability of the 6th number being established let alone being hit is so low that can we truely apply MP's model?

If we cant apply the model then we should consider Heavy's advice which is hedge.

The bottom line is it all comes to risk management and trade-offs;why not lock in gains?

The human factor of feeling good by having money in ones pocket should also be considered.

To amplify what I am saying is couple of hours later ,with money in my pocket,I was able to play with an unknown high roller at the $25 table which I generally avoid.He had half the table reserved.The table was running well with 8 shooters in a row making points . We were able to play take no prisoner craps.

Anyway thank you so much for all the inputs.

Posted: **Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:13 pm**

Honestly, whenever I'm playing and some randy starts hitting all of the numbers for the Fire - I start laying against the point after he establishes the fourth number - and sometimes on the third. I think I have the edge in those cases.

Posted: **Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:39 pm**

I for most part don't waste it on Randy's, but do fire a MAX wager on Fire on Me and other D.I's i believe in....

However i do Lay for 1/3 of the win on a 5 pt and 1/3 win on a 6th point.

I.E. You have 4 pts in the bag, the shooter sets the 5th point now an 8. I have a $10 fire. so 250:1 x $10 = $2500 payout. Im guaranteed 25:1 or $250, so i deduct $250 from 2500 and thats $2200. Now 1/3 of $2200 is around $733. If $60 wins $50 on an 8 then $600 wins $500 right. Lay $600. Now put $65 hard 8 as well and pray dice gods give you a 4 on one die. Best spot to be in. If shooter makes a Hard 8 you get back $650 and down on your H8 bet. You will lose your $600 lay bet and your Vig of $50. You now are guaranteed 250:1, so you will gross $2500 minus $650, assuming 8 came 6/2 or 5/3. Now you hope he sets the 6th point. If he does, use same math. Say its a 10. You Know you are guaranteed $2500 and if he makes the 10, its 1000:1 x $10 or $10,000.00. So thats a $7500 difference. 1/3 of 7500 is around $2500. This part sucks. Your risk is 1/3. So $2500 to win $1225 laying point of 10.

You make a H10 bet to hedge your $2500 at 8:1 odds thats around $315 hard 10. You could drop a lay bet of $2200 and use the $300 for H10. Now you have the same 1/3 risk $2200 + $300 = $2500 thats 1/3 of the $7500 difference. This is way i would recommend. Also If Long delay after 4made and 5tth point set, Do a 3 way Hop RED. Bc of the Energy lapse of dealers setting up Lay bet, sometimes more than often the 7 shows very next roll. Strong energy break. If 5th point survives and shooter makes it and then sets the 6th point, and there seems to be more time than nomad between rolls as you figure out your 1/3rd lay, especially if cash involved and dealer now counts out $2200 on the felt. I can almost guarantee the 7 is coming next roll or a craps then the 7. So hop 3w 7 and do small ace-duec Yo bet in case a few craps #. I personally don't waste it on aces and boxcars. 1:36 to hit, i pass on those 2 and use 3/11 hedge with the Hop 7.

When i set my 6th point a 5. I had a few things i knew about. 1) I came from work and didn't have proper BR with me so was asking a friend(s) on table for Lay money. I had $10 fire. I needed around $3k. The guy i was trying to get it from, thought id might lose it so he said no when a friend asked. Shows how in tune to game and moment he was.... so i took down all my bets but a few small ones and Layed 5 for $1800. Dealers pulled all money to come and broke it down and colored it up to 18 black chips and all behind the 5. I didn't leave any $$$ for 3w 7, I forgot as a part of me wanted to beat this challenge. The challenge was I knew the 5's were Lost. Only 3 fives in 150= rolls prior to me setting the 6th on for #4. It was so far behind, then it shows, add to it me pulling down all my place bets and going behind the 5 after dealers color them all to black.... want to guess the next roll anyone?

You guested it. 7 out Line away, pay VDC $2500 for 5 points and dealers fire toke $2500 and down as well. Also pay VDC, $1200 on that $1800 Lay behind the point. Thats $500 buy in turned into $5500 after my roll.

Bottom Line pay attention to energy breaks during your session. What happens on the next roll after a Big buy in during a roll. What happens on next roll following a stick/shift change. What happened after next roll after cocktail waitress bring drinks to shooter during his roll where he stops to get drinks and pays her. (Btw, if your playing with friends and this happens, jump in and handle drinks and tip) don't let shooter get involved... When Dice Fly Off Table, is next roll a 7 before a Box # thrown? Tell Dealer your place bets and CB odds are all Off until you tell him their working. Pick up PL odds and toss out a small 3w7 bet. Lay the Point for 1 roll or until you see 1-2 box hits.

Well GL Bro

VDC

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