Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Been working on a betting strategy for when I have the Dice in My Hands. it consist of what I'm NOT throwing. One would need to chart their rolls (preferably if playing same house) over time and record die faces. You can do it at YOUR home table practice but as we know, what I'm NOT throwing at home may be dominate in my chosen house.

With that said, gonna use my 12ft home felt layout table in VDC Craps Pit for this example:

Record 1000 rolls using same set, grip, delivery etc. Record faces of Left die / Right die. Find out, what number faces are NOT showing as frequent as others. Match that combination and that now becomes your LAY number to protect your Across wager for 1-2 hits. Then, WOTCO or wait for the point, ones goal is to Make this roll a free Bet as Fast as possible. So why waste a CO roll right?

In example above using a shot/Set/delivery from SR1, it appears I do not Throw many 6-3 Nines from this SGD, So the 9 becomes my Lay number. I then go $270 across, $50 on 4,5 and 10 and $60 on 6 and 8. This exposure to the seven now is reduced with a $450 lay on the 9. You Hop the 5-4 nine for $20 for reduced hedge or $30 full hedge, And protect the hop $20 from Losing with a Horn number, you could do a Horn to cover the $20 or take out 2 of 4 horn numbers. I use Ace-Duece/Yo combo and go naked on 2 & 12. So my goal at this point is to throw a Box number. (Preferably a 4/10) but any box will work outside a 6-3 Nine. Only 2 dice Combinations create a Loser of $450 + Vig $15 + Hedge 20-30, which will take me 6 net Hits to recoup Loss. If I throw a 7, I gross $285 on the Lay and Lose $270 +22, for a Net Loss of $7. but that's offset with a $5-10 minimum PL bet so it's a wash with a CO 7.

If a Horn 3/11 is thrown it's a small Loss. Again My goal is a Box number
So I will gross around $77.50 per roll minus the $22 Hop 5-4 nine,
For a Net win of around $55. I now use ISR down to $44 across going Naked on the 9 and put $10 odds behind PL for an on felt of $54 + PL min.

I've just used a Lay Hedge on a number I know I do NOT throw to protect my $270 across play,
As Only 5% (2 in 36) of the dice combination can take my lay bet.

Using last night practice session at my craps pit I threw only two 6-3 nines in 100 rolls. the next favorable number was a3-1 four as I threw 3 of these for the 100 rolls and threw 6 hard four's, a
2-1 ratio hard to easy on the four.

When on a ALL Tall Small table and going two-way ATS 10/10/10/1/1/1 ($33 risk) I'll go for 2 hits then regress down with same above as I want that ATS a free bet As fast as possible as well. I did this Saturday afternoon and nailed ATS in very first attempt. Bummer I only had $5/5/5/1/1/1 as it was my first roll and wanted to warm up a little. I almost hit it a 2nd time on same roll but fell a few numbers short. But I'll take the $1225 payout and boys toke of $245.

So MP what's your thoughts and opinion on this strategy if one knows in advance that on a certain set,
Grip, delivery 2 faces are at 5% chance of getting seen together for a big Loss? It presents many options at this point for me to use many betting profiles. Aggressive and Semi aggressive being now I have across bet and ATS paid for. On this particular roll, I power pressed myself to 15 rolls then reduced to $96 across including and pressed again building up numbers to point I started making $25 CB with single odds and taking PB off table as they got built up.

My other option I use is 25 rolls PP then regression. I know you have your chart and all with % of hands at risk as the hand matures, but had I used 25 instead of 15 rolls, I would of pulled off over $5,000 of felt as opposed to hundreds. Nonetheless I'm happy as I colored up $1900
In net profit for a high 30 hand roll. I did get the 10 to max bet $5k if I used 25 instead of 15 as I killed the 10 between the 16-25th roll. It only takes 6 hits to reach table max on 4-10 using 10 /25 / 75/ 225/ 675/ 2025/ 5k.

The reason I use this approach is I know I have an15-40 roll hands pretty frequent. When info the math using semi press schedule as you did for Bobbylee, it's profit but know where near what a 15-25 press can deliver.

I guess the question is how often do you throw these hands? How often will you take a loss of $54 across if you don't make it to 15 rolls. How often will you pick off your 6-3 lay Nine hedge on first roll? How aggressive do you wanna be and how much confidence does a person have to deliver the goods on a Consistence basis.

What things above would you alter if any?

Thx VDC

Mp,
I haven't encorporated the Lay portion into equation until just recently. How I came about this Lay was dice came to me and I had a Strong Lost number that was trending during session I was in. So instead of going $320 across, which I had done prior, I reduced it down to $270 and laid that lost #.

Physiologically It helped with the Mental side of game knowing I had some protection to a PSO which would wipe out my $320 Across bet and put a sour feeling in stomach. So reducing to naked on 1 Lost number -and laying it helps reduce against the Oh Fu*k, now a PSO decides to show....

I've had the PSO where I haven't used this $320 across where I say 'wow, Glad I wasn't $320 across right then. But it's usually using different shot from a different spot as well. Nonetheless, I wanted to get the MP input on all the Hedging involved from the lay of my number to the Hop on the face that is showing a little to the horns to protect the hop. It's sounds like a lot of bets when I describe it, but it's actually no diff than what folks do on a CO roll with all the other props.

Dealer set me up $270 across w/no 9, WOTCO please.
Also, Lay the 9 for $450 (give $465) (reduced lay would be $300)
and Hop 5-4 for $30 ($20 if using $300 Lay) w/ $2 ea Ace deuce and 11)

That's it. now throw a Box Number and reduce to $44 across plus PL odds

I've now converted 1 roll into a free Bet to use a mild progression UAYW (Up as you win), or a Full PP to the15th roll, then regress to $96 across collecting all profit / then go to 30th roll reduce to $160 across collecting that profit and the 45th roll reducing to $320 across, collecting that profit by using 3 Stages of regressions.

One thing for sure, in 2015 I'm committed to keeping more accurate records when I roll. Meaning shot used, set used, position on table, die faces, casino table SE,SW,NE,NW etc. I had a Pit boss turn me in to an app called "My 401G". It suppose to have every casino known to mankind and games that that casino uses (slots, craps, blackjack roulette, Bac and for records.

Also, after play, transfer all info from table along with P&L into Excel. If nothing else at end of year, I can review and can look Back and course correct for the upcoming year. I know for me I've had some of my Longest rolls from Straight out. More 40-50's hands this past year came from SO not SL1 or SR1. Go figure. But yet 70-80% of my practice comes next to stick. Lol

Thx for input

VDC is there a bit of risk here that you are hedging a hedge which is already hedging a hedge and that in the end, the hop and horn bets may be small, but may just nibble away too much at your overall profit?

It may be a more rockier ride, but if you have true faith that the 9 is you best lay number, then why not just have the confidence to let that ride on its own, accepting the fact that in doing so, your volatility will be increased but your net position could easily be much better in the long run?

London Shooter wrote:VDC is there a bit of risk here that you are hedging a hedge which is already hedging a hedge and that in the end, the hop and horn bets may be small, but may just nibble away too much at your overall profit?

It may be a more rockier ride, but if you have true faith that the 9 is you best lay number, then why not just have the confidence to let that ride on its own, accepting the fact that in doing so, your volatility will be increased but your net position could easily be much better in the long run?

I hear ya LS, its the 6-3 Niner that is weak in relation to others. (Last night during my 100 roll practice session using same set, grip, delivery etc, i threw 6 Nines (only one of those Nines was a 6-3 the other 5 were a 5-4). (thats only three 6-3 nines in 200 rolls) The 5-4 is what i am using to HOP. But that remains the question here, in is this $20 a truly wasted bet eating into Profits?. Every time i do this Hp 5-4 and split horn bet, its $24-36 in extra out of rack. But getting picked off with a 5-4 nine would blow as well, knowing i could of done something about it. What I'm essentially giving up is by odds portion of my win.

I kinda of justify it by this. Most people don't work on the come out, (so if i wasn't WOTCO, i would not of made that $55 net win right?). So in my head i justify the exchange. I give house $34 to protect $450, with the assurance i receive $55 and convert this hand into a FREE roll right out of the gate. Im now into profit mode before i hit my 2nd box #. I would NOT have to throw a CO Nine for 15 CO rolls to show a Net Loss if just 1 CO 5-4 Nine happens during those 15 box points set.

We all use HH (high house) edge bets here and there right, Whether its justified or NOT, it HH edge. See a Horn bet a Horn HH edge, but some do it. Hop 7.s but we do it. Hop a repeating # but we do it. If Longterm its in our best interest, why do WE do it?

How many people play a session a NEVER use any Craps check, Horn, Hop Sevens or Hop any Box 4-10 for that matter? and Yes the HW bets as well. Just talking out loud here...I guess a true measure would be to take these 1000 rolls once i get there and treat it like a point cycle. See if any of my 7's (last nights SRR was 9.0and had 3 w/in 4 rolls) come during actual CO roll. See how many times i actually hit the 5-4 nine on CO. In the end you are probably right. Save the $20. I did throw 7 Yo,s during this 100 rolls and 1 twelve, 10 ace-dueces, and 4 aces along with 11 sevens w/ 3 within 4 rolls of each other. and 2 other were 7,11,7 so that means 2 of those 11 were CO sevens, where the Lay protection would come into play. 22 horn numbers, 11 sevens. 67 paid box numbers during this 100.

VDC

VDC, if my maths is correct and you only throw 5 lots of 5/4 in a hundred come out rolls on average, then your $20 hedge is costing you $4 a time. Of course in comparison to what you are laying out on other bets that is small beer, but with all these hedges on high vig bets 2 or 3 or 4 dollars here and there will soon add up in the long run.

But then your long-run might be well served psychologically by having this "mental crutch" in place to protect you somewhat from a worst case scenario. If that frees you up to shoot better for longer at a higher betting level then who am I to argue? I guess sometimes we have to consider more than just the underlying maths of the problem. I'm not a fan of hedging on these kind of prop bets that strongly favour the house, but no doubt there are some intangibles that need factoring in.

VDC, I like your thinking. What are your strong numbers? Instead of $270 evenly across, what if you doubled up your top two numbers, say the four and ten, so the extra money covers your hedge? Say $75 on 4 and 10, $50 on five and $42 on 6 and 8. Extra $14 on board wind and extra $50 on key numbers

Just thought

Tonybugs

Tony-bugs, strong numbers? TBD, we will calculate that over 1000 rolls. But early on looks to be the 4-2 6 combo, but last night was 8's. I've now I've got in 300. In seven days, by next Wednesday ill have in 1000 with same set, grip delivery from SR1. I will also tier how many came fro what set

2: 1-1 _____
3: 1-2 _____ / 2-1 _____
4: 6-5 _____ / 5-6 _____
5: 4-1 _____ / 1-4 _____ / 3-2 _____ / 2-3 _____
6: 4-2 _____ / 2-4 _____ / 5-1 _____ / 1-5 _____ / 3-3 _____
7: 4-3 _____ / 3-4 _____ / 5-2 _____ / 2-5 _____ / 6-1 _____ / 1-6 _____
8: 6-2 _____ / 2-6 _____ / 5-3 _____ / 3-5 _____ / 4-4 _____
9: 6-3 _____ / 3-6 _____ / 5-4 _____ / 4-5 _____
10: 6-4 _____ / 4-6 _____ / 2-2 _____
11: 6-5 _____ / 5-6 _____
12: 6-6 _____


maybe today ill post the results thru 300 at work later. last night a few more 6-3 fives showed. Funny how same dice dice, shot delivery etc but a different day can totally change outcome from another day from whats dominate to whats not. I can assure you the groove i was in the last 2 days, there weren't any 6-3 nines faces showing. Go to a different day and all characteristics of mechanics could alter a little providing different outcomes. Slept on side and shoulder hurts, moisture in air changes how table performs as far as bounce. Being a cabinet maker and making my own table and playing here in Vegas where we get heavy rains at times, i see table conditions change when whether changes. Nonetheless, ill foo 100 a night until 1000 recorded and we'll assess these rolls and see if Longterm if protecting 1 lost lay face and Hopping the other for 1 hit across and down warrants this play or not.

VDC

[quote="VegasDiceController"
maybe today ill post the results thru 300 at work later. last night a few more 6-3 fives showed. Funny how same dice dice, shot delivery etc but a different day can totally change outcome from another day from whats dominate to whats not. I can assure you the groove i was in the last 2 days, there weren't any 6-3 nines faces showing. Go to a different day and all characteristics of mechanics could alter a little providing different outcomes.
VDC[/quote]

VDC

Sounds like you really have a handle on your toss and its characteristics. I have always had concerns about signature numbers for the very reasons you outlined above as well as a few more...
I will follow this thread with interest.

I believe what MP suggests has great merit. Try to be as realistic as possible. Do not let fatigue and redundancy enter as a variable.
Looking forward to your posts

Memo

VDC, I've read through your posts twice and can't find your plan for a 9 CO roll. What is your plan if a "bad" 9 rolls first and you lose the Hop and the Lay? Place the 9, or Lay it again?

Also, you said, "You Hop the 5-4 nine for $20 for reduced hedge or $30 full hedge" and "Only 2 dice Combinations create a Loser of $450 + Vig $15 + Hedge 20-30, which will take me 6 net Hits to recoup Loss."

Don't the two sentences contradict each other--a $30 Hedge (on the 5-4 "9") would cover the lost Lay bet... why would it take 6 hits to recoup--there's no loss. Of course, if the 6-3 hits, the loss is $495, granted stats (from your first log) is on your side; though not so much from your last post. That's a recovery need of seven hits. I know 'influencing' should change the occurrence of the 6-3's vs. 5-4's, but if you have a bad day, like "last night a few more 6-3 fives showed. Funny how same dice dice, shot delivery etc but a different day can totally change outcome from another day", you'd be better off with the $320 Across.

It seems that the $20 Hop bet only "hedges itself" because it's only 2/3 the commitment you need to cover the 5-4 CO 9. That's a hedge against 33% of loss from the possible 9's, in a no-math layman's terms, if you understand my meaning. If the 6-3 is a true rarity from session-to-session, then the $30 Hop with everything else seems like it should be a Ray Charles bet, but if you can't control the 6-3 from session-to-session (and how can you tell which mode you're in?), it'd be like you missed the bet 100% of the time, and in that case, it seems like the $320 Across is the better play. 4-1/2 hits and you'll recover from a CO 7... and theoretically, with even a semi-decent SSR, you should be making pretty good money on the valid one-roll ISR's (coupled with a lesser 4-1/2 hit requirement) enough to cover an incidental $320 CO 7... easier than a 7-hit demand to cover a 'bad' 9.

Maybe I've gone the long way around to ask this question--4-1/2 CO box numbers would cover your $320 loss to a CO 7. Don't you think you can throw something closer to 4-1/2 box numbers vs. the 7, rather than jeopardize $495 against the occurrence of a 6-3 "9"? My thinking is, even 2 hits, worth $140, would shave CO 7 losses to $180. Why risk $495 when you can't be sure that "this is the day" 6-3's don't roll?

Or am I just 'spouting off' as a dunce amongst mathematicians? I have no math background.

Another thought (forgive me) :

I give house $34 to protect $450, with the assurance i receive $55 and convert this hand into a FREE roll right out of the gate. Im now into profit mode before i hit my 2nd box #.

ISR regression to $44 Inside... isn't guaranteed profit at this point is $11? It hardly seems worth it. If you're rolling that so well that you can limit the occurrence of one specific dice combination, 3 hits from the MP204 would guarantee $103 on the PPPSO, and two hands would cover a CO 7. Or is my train of thought on a vaporware track?

MP: I do take every roll and go thru my ritual. I just don't toss them for the sake of roll data. I was just saying that things just didn't feel the same last night. Those that play with me know I don't rush. Lol. I make sure all is good. Breathing grip , set, delivery.

Dork: the plan for a 6-3 inner on CO is to just eat the loss and make up for it wins prior or wins later. Again the reason I chose 6-3 is these two faces are not showing with this set (on my table) with MY dice. As said in very first post, I could have a whole different set of roll data for chosen house on same table I play at and probably do. As I said one would need to chart over a Long Term and have hella accurate roll data records to keep things in perspective of what's not showing. I have 10 years or more of sessions I've played in. I just didn't record die faces. Maybe I can get the casino to use red and green dice for Christmas. Red die Left, right die green. Lol.

Also I realize $11 isn't anything to write home about, but it's not a loss and I can build from there. My main objective is get my initial across wager covered. And secondly to pay for my $10/10/10 ATS bonus bet. I'm more on the aggressive side of betting in that I believe that minimum one time during my 1-2 hr session, that I can have a hand of 15 rolls w/out a 7. If I can, and It's paid for, I can Power Press myself up to the 15 roll or max it w/15 box hits. Then pull 80-90% of $ off felt. In the past I would do this without the across bet and if it failed to reach 15, I lose $64 across plus PL bet. But if one roll reached 15 paid hits it 1000-5000 or more depending on what's hit. You have to be willing to sacrifice your loss if you don't reach you PP goal. Here was my roll from Saturday on an ATS table. I was $5/5/5/1/1/1. $18 for 2 way bonus. I work 4/10 on CO roll up to certain levels than determine if I need to hop one that is ahead and not work. If hit then tell dealer press your number you just hit with the payout.

It's not a press to the moon, but a Press tip 15box numbers hit bc I believe in my skillset and I'm here to make $ off it and go home.

cO6,8.10,3.6 winner.
CO h10, 2, 5,10 winner.
CO 10, 11,6,4, 12, h10 winner.
CO 9, (won ATS bet $1225 w/CO9) 6,10, 9 winner.
CO9, 8,h8, 9 winner
CO7 (had to re up ATS $10/10/10/5/5/5) wCO7 , 6, 6 winner
CO6, h6 winner , CO5 12,3,12,8, 7out.

So using my first 15 rolls (I believe in myself PP) or 15 hits maximizing my belief, the PP after 15 hits turned into pulling $25 off the 4, pulling $25 off the 5, pulling $120 off the 6, pulling $120 off the 8, pulling $25 off the nine and pulling $6075 off the 10 for a gross of $6725 minus the $64 across plays PL and ATS. So a net in group 1 PP to 15 of around $6600. That's 15 hits and roll continues at CO7 for group 2 of PP and this determines what you racked and will also determine how many rolls you go. The higher the across the less rolls needed. Bc I could bank $6600 I could go back easily of $320 across or even $640 across and reduce down from 15 hits to 5-10. Now I was charting and the table was 51 rolls into my session and the only 4 I seen , I was one who threw it. So I could use my above tactic and lay $600 on no 4 and hop 2-2 for $20. WOTCO is important if I have protection I call Allstate. Boom CO 7. No worries. Win lay of $300. Lose $270 across if I'm naked on 4 bc of Lay. (You still with me?)

the next 10 box numbers are
cO7, CO6, 6 winner
cO 6, h6 winner
CO 5, 12.2, 12,8,7out. (so two 12's, teamed with a 2 is a beg off sign until I see a few box numbers) as a 7 usually appears within 3 box numbers. So chances are I'm off here and maybe I say across loss.

Point is I'm making, is have a plan and stick to it. Some think what I do is too aggressive for their blood. I happen to believe in myself to where I know I can afford my $64 loss while waiting for a mid teen hand to deliver goods. At the end of 15 rolls, I take all craps numbers throw and divide by 2 and that's the number of box rolls I extend for hits beyond 15. In this case I made it to the 10. So that's 18 total rolls from the start.

I'm not sure what progression you all are fixated on but this is my cup of tea I choose to drink. Once I'm done I fall back into 3 Levels of TrendSetter until it's my turn to shoot again. Then I repeat. Sometimes right before I regress and collect, I do both Come bets and my PP, so when I do do STEEP REGRESSION I do still have some extra $$$ to deliver and make up for the big drop back.

I see friends who are consistent to have hands in twenties, thirties, forties, fifties, and they make $300 -$500 on a 45 hand roll unless their lucky enough to hit a fire bet 5-6 pointer. I tell them why is it I have enough confidence to bet $64 across for 15 rolls PP, why don't you believe enough in yourself? Most times they say they don't want all that money sitting out there if it comes up short. I say what the $10 you started with. I say how much did you have on that number by not betting it? They say zero. Yep. And now you lost $10 net per number. I tell them as well to collect first bet that pays above $60 and they are assured its a free roll. This is the point why I'm testing this above theory that if I can minimize my exposure, using ALL STATE for 1-2 hits to cover my across bets and my bonus 2 way, then all pressure is off me. It's as if I didn't shoot at all and just passed to next shooter. So you might as well as make a run at it. I talk to pit bosses and their NOT afraid of most DI's bc they don't know how to exploit their hand.

Here's my roll data thru 400 rolls:
2: 1-1: (17) 17
3: 1-2: (13) 2-1 (17) 30
4: 1-3 (9). 3-1 (9). 2-2 (9) 27
5: 1-4 (17) 4-1 (10) 2-3 (12) and 3-2 (17) 56
6: 1-5(15) 5-1 (9) 2-4 (15) 4-2 (16) 3-3 (9) 64
7: 1-6 (6) 6-1 (9) 2-5 (7) 5-2 (9) 3-4 (11) 4-3 (3) 45
8: 2-6(13) 6-2(9) 3-5(17) 5-3(16) 4-4(12) 67
9: 3-6(10) 6-3(5) 4-5(14) 5-4(13) 42
10: 4-6(7) 6-4 (6) 5-5 (13) 26
11: 5-6(11) 6-5(15) 26
12: 6-6 (6) 6

I thinks that a little over 8.8 SRR thru 400 rolls. Threw some early 7's the other night but counted them. Maybe I should warm up 10-15 rolls then start recording. The 6-3 nine hit only 15 total times in 400 rolls. the 5-4 almost double that 27 times. The 2 faces showing a lot are 3-5/5-3 and 3-2/2-3 for box numbers. Aces 1-1 and ace-duece 1-2/2-1 horn hitting a lot as well, in fact as same amount as 5-3 eight and the 3-2 five.

Hope this data helps MP. The rest to follow.

VDC

VDC,

I've always loved this idea, but I was never able to work the numbers to my liking. I've gone away from hedging due to the cost, ie there is a built in edge for the casino on every bet. I love the thought of a 1 hit regression strategy rather than a 2 hit. I don't like to lay the 4 or 10 because of the 2-1 payout, you just lose too much leverage if the wrong numbers pop. I never thought of hopping one of the combos of the 5 or 9. I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and came up with the following, using these assumptions....

Edited due to my mistake on the vig. VDC's numbers are correct.

I took the left face hitting the most (77) and the right face hitting most (81). Gonna pair them up using 5-5 H10, on those faces and take next two and pair them with 6-4 and pair last side with 3-1. This should deliver 10,/ for me. Although I did hit as many hard 10's(13) to easy 10's (13), already during first 400 rolls. This will be a side experiment. Those faces might deliver more sevens. Not sure but gonna see if it works.

I do this during live play when trying to hit ATS bonus bet. Cherry picks numbers best I've done is nailing ATS in first 13 rolls. Hit it in first 16 last Saturday. Nonetheless I'll do this test after I get my 100 rolls in tonight. But tonight is lIVE play for me usually. So depends how fatigued I am when I get home.

Looking at my 100 rolls daily it looks my SRR gets stronger towards end of 100 rolls as last night finished L30 rolls w/out a seven. And two nights ago had 20 to end the 100. Where when I continued the next night, I threw first 7 on 5th roll in. So it screwed my continuation of groove I was in the day before.

Maybe I should continue beyond 100 until a 7out if I'm in a groove when roll 100 commences. ?
Sounds logical anyway. Lol.

JB, agree with 4-10. Need to be careful of laying a Dominate number. I see fools come and make huge Lays on 4-10. I look at my sheet to see if I overlooked something and I notice the big Lay on 4 is been hitting 4 times in last 12-18 rolls. dude has no idea he's walking into enemy lines with hat Lay. More times than not their good lay bets if Lost (usually appear on the point) when they do show up.

That's another reason when laying the 4 or 10 and I'm on my 3-4th PP on that lay, I'll hop 5-5 or 2-2, try to take out 1 dice combo for that number since it's 31-1. Only 15 to protect $450 lay. Of course I'm not just blindly laying but laying off triggers I get from tracking.

If I did miss the deduction above on the horns, I apologize. On a lay of $300/200 say on the nine, I'll hop $20 5-4 part and $3 yo and ace/deuce combo. Pays 24-3. So net $21. So 23 protection needs to be subtracted from the first payout of 70-100. So $47 or $77. Then drop to basically $54 across with PL/odds.

I goofed, I was thinking you needed to add the cost of the lay (vig), I forgot it is returned when you take your lay bet down. It's been a long time since I used a lay for a hedge and I'm a smaller bettor, my lay amounts usually all cost $1 vig. I'll update my numbers above.

Just returned from Vegas yesterday morning. Did not do very well this trip, for a number of reasons. I've been rehashing my sessions and one of the ideas slapping around in my head was to revisit a 1 hit regression strategy, so I'm interested in your progress. Keep this thread updated or PM me your progress on this strategy if you don't mind.

I do understand that you are just not blindly laying/hopping a number and that it's based on your throw data.

Grab a Snickers... and some coffee... Live roll using this below, roll by roll info...

What a graph you did on that link MP, TY for the time.... need to see if MAC works on BT, Im sure it does... Ill try and do the other 600 rolls this week to have a more balanced set of roll data. Yes I agree a Sh*t load of 2,3,11's. Hate them. Thats why this shot/set/ works best on ATS tables for if I'm gonna get those numbers, might as well play on correct tables and get paid for non Box number hits. At least ATS they count towards All Small/ Tall.

I Haven't really ventured off to Crap Less tables to give it a whirl. I have played twice this past year at 2 houses but I'm sure i was using a different set/shot.

Injured my lower back Thursday so swelling needs to subside, its my L4-5/s1 disc are shot... but stubborn me thought Id defeat the odds and play anyway. been dealing with back issues for 7 years now. Had a free bet so thought Id use it. Here were all my rolls. Same table as I hit the ATS on Saturday. Cowboys were in town and serial numbers were 20 counts lower than last saturday. Thought that was a little weird though numbers going down and not up? But they were not 1000 counts off like I've seen other places in town. So gave it a shot. Dice were out to some gal at SL2 and she was in a groove. She was not a Parr shooter but somehow she set it up for HW facing up on whatever point she was using. House sweating her to hit back wall... She tossed them real hard going off table and pissed me off house got to her... I quickly leaned over and said so all could hear... Sweetie, you are doing fabulous. Do everything you were doing before, just slightly harder and you will be just fine, don't do what you just did, take your time... she quickly got back in her groove....She outshot me... gonna give her roll data as a randy; 8,8, 6,h10,h10,6, 8,10,2,9,h10,9,5,6,2,h6,6,6,h8 10,6,10, h10,7out (24 rolls, Im licking my chops and almost told boys, i want same dice. but i have my picking dice ritual, so gonna do what i did last Saturday.

Heres is what i did...
($35) $10/10/10 2-1-2 two way ATS me and Boys
($240) Across WOTCO $35 4/10...$50/5, $60,6/8
($12 vig) Lay 9 for $375 to make $250.
hopped 5-4 for $20, $3 ace-duece Yo combo.
$10 PL bet ...here we go...

here was the first roll for me: Co2,Co7,Co2,Co7,Co7, Co9,9, Co5,4,3,10,9,12,6,3,8,4,7out (18 rolls)

First roll 2 craps. urgh that one not covered.... Damn it... first roll minus -$33
Repeat above but add $1 on AC as I'm afraid of a repeater.

Next roll CO 7. Are you killing me, wheres all these Box Hits I've been working on...Stick to Plan VDC, Breathe , exhail...GTG.
Lose $240 across, Lose $15 Hop 5-4, Lose $3 A-D-Yo combo and Lose $1 AC, Lose $35 2Way Bonus. Thats -$294.
Win $10 PL and +$238 back on Lay, bc i stayed up... So that 7 cost me -$46 in reality. Down total is at $79 with zero hits. WTF.

Ok VDC this is an anomaly, throw a paid box and maybe now i go for two hits. Remember you edge here. You are better than what is showing. Stick to the plan and believe in yourself.

3rd roll, Still a CO... Down $79 if my math correct.... Next roll CO 2 craps. Wow, this isn't working....
Lose PL $10, $20 hop, $3 A-D yo Combo. Win $7 AC, $33-7...Minus $26 more...Urgh 3 rolls down $105 first 3 rolls...

4th roll CO 7.. Im about to walk. I tell dealer Dump Bowl, telling myself, Im not suppose to throw these 7's with the SGD. That 4th roll cost me -$240 across, $20 Hop, $4 A-D-Yo Combo and AC. Plus $35 bonus. Thats -$299, But I did win Lay of $238 plus $10 PL... Whoopie... $299-$248 ...Thats Minus $51 more added to the deficit. Jeez my edge went right in toilet. Down now -$156. Im tired of losing this Bonus now, so I add another prop of $5 to Any 7. This $15 free bet, has cost me dearly. lmao... stick to the plan.

5th roll still no box hit, roll another fricken 7. Wow, what is up... Lose -$240 across, Lose $20 Hop, $4 ADY0 combo and $1 AC and Bonus $35. Thats -$300...Win Red for $20 and PL for $10 and $238 on Lay for a total of $268. $32 net loss brings total to -$188 and i don't even have a paid hit yet. Whats the odds this happens now Live, but a million other times i didn't use, i would of collected? Oh Well staying true but about to bail home, i know i need a few paid hits and all this crap goes away. This set has a counter sister to it. It dice performing one way, so I switch to it, as I'm disgusted with results that worked so well on home table. Is it my back, is it the dice?. My mechanics seem right. urgh... (Net session loss so far -$188)... Confidence a little shaken, something is wrong...

So now i change things just a little. Change to sister set since this isn't working. Should of done this after 2nd seven.
I realize I can have another CO7 and this sister set produces them, so I'm a little worried. So I up my lay to $450 from 175. This will net me $285 if i see another 7 in CO.

6th roll. Wham a Box # finally. Don't get too excited, as its 5-4 Niner. I say out loud, laughing, you have to be kidding me. Truly the dice gods not looking down on me. Lose Lay $465, I Don't get paid on naked box no nine, but do hit 5-4 hop for $15 that pays $240 and down. So -$465,-$20,-$4, -$5 red for a combined $494 and Win $240 down on 5-4 hop. (when i bumped my lay to max lay, I forgot to take hop 5-4 to $30 for a $450 payout costly. The whole time noise going on in my head now. WT hell aren't you just working 4/10 for $10 ea. with min PL and a $5 red to cover 4/10 working and nothing else? This is how I normally play on non ATS tables. That 5-4 nine cost me -$254 and my combined loss after 1 hit is -$442. At this time i decide not to risk the $240 across anymore and drop to my conventional $54 across max PP to 15 rolls/ box hits. Whatever happens at this point, Im in recover mode for this experiment. I know now when ill don't play, hard and costly lesson. but i feel i can recover.

So point is nine on a 5-4. I should be able to get back my $442 loss if i can have a 20 roll hand being i screwed myself on aces and seven in beginning.... So here we go recovery mode or go go with head between legs..and back to practice.

7th roll Nine winner. Win a whole $10. press PL to $15, I tell dealer, Work 4/10 only as i can't take much more of this. IM SURE IT A LONGTERM WINNER and I'm just in the anomaly of what I'm doing. But these hedges are getting to me in pocket book.

8th roll a Co5, Take my Pb down and put $10 odds behind PL.... 9th roll a 4, max press $25, $3 in rack, I spread those around HW in hope i can catch a BTB parlay there for recover mode....10th roll a 3 craps, that 6 of nine non paying numbers and 8 if you count the CO9 and Co 5... Next roll, my 11th a 10, max press to $25 rack $2... 12th roll a nine, drop $1 PP to $25. 13th roll a 12, thats 10 non payers...damn it..only need a 2,6, 8,11 for a $2450 payout... Next 14th roll a 6, Press to $24 and put change on H6 and Hop H6. Now only, need 2,8,11 for $2450 (Should have 180* my set here but forgot) not ike me as I'm usually on top of this...15th roll a 3 craps, now 11 non payers counting all those Co rolls.... Again should of 180* set and good chance same toss delivers a Yo. Scared to death to revert back to original set to grab that Aces as 7's were appearing there.... 15th roll is where i stop and look to reduce depending on how many non payers i have 2,7,2,7,7,9,5,13,12,3. I decide to raise my count to 20 cutting non payers in half for roll extension before regression. Hoping to have $400 on felt... 16th roll an 8. pressing to 24, thinking now i just need 2,11, for $2450. next roll a 4 repeater, drop 1 go to $75. Need another 4 and that would put, $225,10,24,24,60,and 25, totally around $370. 4,2,or 11 please, whispering to my subconscious.... 17 rolls in ending with a 2,4,11 would be sick... that would give me 20 rolls... and around $2800 and down regressing to $96 across....next roll 7out... 18 rolls... 8 of 18 non payers and 10 counting the 2 CO non payers...Decent hand, but fell short.

had this been a non ATS, I would of only worked 4/10 on Co, and Craps would of been covered so first 5 rolls would of meant really no loss but would have netted small profit on Co 7 on PL wins. and if I had a strong Lost number which was the 4 prior to my roll, I could of laid the 4 for my normal 3 tiered progression, 200-100 then 300/150 then 450/225, i would of had CO 9 and and been up $425-18 for a $407 net plus $10 PL x 3 for + $30...for a net profit of $430 before 2nd box thrown.... Quite a swing of events.... Nonetheless, last night it didn't work out... maybe next time...

The CO roll tells us a lot.. How is set performing. are you delivering 7's when you don't want...

i did go back on future rolls and continue....not going into full detail as i did the main roll... but here they were...

roll 2; co10, 6, 6 7out (4 rolls)
roll 3: co11, co 7, co5, 9, 8, 6,5winner, co9,10,10,7 out (12 rolls and 2hits and down +$140)
roll 4: co h4, 9, 5, 6, 9, 9, 7 out. (7 rolls w/ 2 hits down +$140)
roll 5: co 8, 3, 8, co 6, 3, 4, 5, 11,3 ,9, 8, 6, co7, h8, 6, 7 out. (needed aces for $350 and 10,12 for $2100) ( 16 rolls 2hits down + $140)
roll 6: co9 (5-4), 8, 5, 3, 9 co h10, 4 7out. (8 rolls 2hits down +140 if properly hedging 5-4 nine)
roll 7: co h4, h4. co6., 5 7out (5 rolls. 2hits down +140)
8th roll: co 6, h6, co11, co 9, 9, co6 7out. (7 rolls 2hits down net $140)
So sticking to plan after initial clusterf*ck, would have set me up for my goal. win 2 bets, pay for everything, across + Bonus bet, hedges etc... And attempt to make $2450 an hour.

I tried this process for first few and dropped to $44 across after 1 hit and tried to run this up to 15 box numbers.... wasn't a good night. Net Loss but shake it off and get back to practice. Should of passed bc of back issues, but back issues are the norm for me so not making excuses. Had a new dealer i had to help with payouts as well. He was green bc of short handed...But no excuses here just be accountable for all things in my Life as I ultimately am in control? I could of walked away if i didn't like crew, I could of walked bc of CO 7 i was seeing, I could of Key Word "I"... Anyway... Back to getting this down Pat and memorizing all proper bets and correct amounts and see if after 1000 rolls this 5-4/ craps hedge works out.... Fell just shy of a $2450 payout so although a Losing night, doesn't take much to recover. I almost hit it on a shitty performance by me... so i still thinks its attainable, just need to course correct.

VDC