Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hello all. I am new to the forum.

I have a question about regressing or pressing. I have been playing craps for several years and found about DI a few years back. I have always started small with place bets (table min) and pressed them up a full unit after I hit the same number twice.

My question is has anyone had success with starting with more on place bets (maybe place the 6 & 8 for $30) and regressing back down to the table min?

Thanks in advance for the feedback.

Yeah, regression betting is what originally turned me into a winner in the random game. I know, some people will insist you can't win a random game. Fact is, with discipline you can - it just means the universe needs to find an equivalent number of losers to offset your wins.

My standard regression those days was $66 inside - take one hit that pays $21 and regress to $22 inside. Take the next hit and lock it up. Then press up and out from there - pressing every third or every second hit.

I've run regressions from as high as $320 across for two hits - then regressing down to $64 across - down to $12 six and eight for one hit and regress to $6 each.

Now, if you are betting on YOUR hands and you have a proven edge with dice influencing then regression is not necessarily the way to go. But you don't want to press so much that you don't take any money off the table. So work out where you'd ultimately want to be - say $30 each - and figure out how to get there while starting at a lower amount - say $12. Pays $14. Drop $4 on top of the pay off and take it to $30. Easy.

The strategy I use most often these days is based on one of Wizard's plays - which is to start with $18 each on the six and eight. On the first hit you drop $4 and press the number that hit to $42. Then you stay at that level and every time the number hits you drop $1 and say "Fifty for One." Lock up two green chips and smile.

If you want to bet bigger start with $42 each on the six and eight. On the first hit press the number that rolled to $90. You'll get $1 change. Now they'll pay you $105 every time that number repeats.

Welcome to the board Sanddice.

Agree with Heavy as it depends on what you have proven your edge to be. If you haven't already download Maddog's Bonetracker. It's a wonderful tool to use to track your rolls during your practice sessions. Just click on Maddog's name towards the top of this page to go to his profile where he has nicely provided a download link.

I am in the process of starting to get more serious about tracking my rolls and put together a nice book to examine. I am sure others will chime in on their strategy but remember it has alot to do with your BankRoll.

Heavy wrote:... Now, if you are betting on YOUR hands and you have a proven edge with dice influencing then regression is not necessarily the way to go. ...

Why do you say that, Heavy? Shouldn't even a 7.0 SSR DI be able to recover from a CO-7 & PSOs with a 2-hit regression scheme over the long run (assuming the betting ratios are "correct")?

I believe the theory is that with a proven edge you are actually cutting short your potential profits by regressing, and if you keep the faith and keep betting at a higher level, the more hits that your edge gives you will mean bigger profit than dropping your bets after x hits.

I'm sure H and others can chip in and explain this better than me.

It's like the play Heavy explains below that he has taken up from the Wizard. In Biloxi last year, the Wizard announced he had analysed a whole pile of his own throw data and concluded that his best move to give him the best long term profit was the initial power press e.g. $18 6 & 8 goes to $42 on first hit. Then collect 50 for 1 for rest of hand.

Thanks for the responses. Much appreciated.

Not that anyone cares, but I have been experimenting with a regression strategy which is both limiting losses and increasing wins. I am a DI with a proven edge, so I know that I am almost always going to hit a 6 or an 8 within the first 5 - 7 rolls. That said, the strategy, by example, is this on a $5 or $10 table:

Point is a 4
Place 6 and 8 for $60 each
Place 5 and 9 for $10 each
7 risk is $150
First hit is a 5. Press it to $25 (the 5 and 9 will fund the 4 and 10)
Second hit is a 10...too bad
Third hit is a 5 - Rack $25 and put $10 odds behind the 4
Fourth hit is the 6 - Rack the $70 and pull $30 each down from the 6 and 8
Now, you have the 4 with single odds, 5 at $25 and a $30 6 & 8 - You are playing damn near 'no risk' and already have three green chip numbers.
Everytime the 6 and 8 hit, press as follows: $42; $60; $90; $120; $180; $240; $300; $600; $1200....to table limit at $600 / unit.
When the point (4) hits, it will pay $30 and will now ride at a buy for $25.
If 4 or 5 repeat, move a $10 to the 10.
The idea is to get all the box numbers to single green units and press them from there.
5 and 9 progression is same as the 6 and 8 using the 7 for 5 pay out.
I let 4 and 10 hit once. On the second hit, they go up $25 and buy at $50. Collect and press thereafter.

Yes...occasionally, you do the old P7, but I've found you can cut into that kind of loss on the next roll or two usually.
I never go past 7 rolls after the come out. If I do not hit the 6 or 8 within that span, I regress to $30 each without a hit and try to build from there. And, if the come out is a box number, 5 is the highest I'll go without a hit on the 6 or 8.

As a controlled shooter, 6 and 8 are the numbers you have the best edge on, no matter who you are. Realizing the limitations caused by payouts, there are still 10 ways to make 6 and 8 and 6 ways to make a 7. Even in a random game, this strategy has a chance. I need to run the percentages, but I am estimating that using all kinds of sets, I am hitting the 6 and 8 within 5 rolls on over 80% of the hands, maybe more. I will start tracking the stat to be sure.

Just putting this out there. I had just about converted back to come betting when some of my team mates started touting the various regression strategies. This one keeps you in the game until you get that roll over 15, which usually has the 6 and 8 up to $90 each pretty easily. With a 7 risk of $150, I'll usually walk if I win a minimum of $50 in a single session. More is better, but 'Pigs get fat; Hogs get slaughtered'.

Keep On Rollin'

Alamo

nice write up Alamo, thanks!

Nice info Alamo, appreciate you sharing.

Just curious. Let's ssay you have progressed the 6/8 up to $120+.....if you hit your point are you taking those back down to $60 or leaving them up when the next point is set?

AlamoTx wrote: ...I let 4 and 10 hit once. On the second hit, they go up $25 and buy at $50. Collect and press thereafter.


Alamo

Do you press the 4 and 10 individually, or are you pressing them both up together? TIA

To answer two questions, since I don't know how to reply to individual posts!

When I hit $120 on the 6 or the 8, there is not regression. I only do the regression one time to give myself a basically free shot at a long roll without money from my BR on the layout.

Beginning at the first hit at $120 ($140 pay), I bump the unit press up to $60, so the next bets will look like $180, $240 and $300. First hit at $300, the unit bets go up to $300. Big jump there because you might be getting near the end of your roll...but if you are not, the progression cashes in big with what's left. So, at $300, the bet goes up to $600, $900, $1200, $1500 etc. You could obviously vary all of this, and I sometimes do. I've not gotten it to this level in real play, because it is a work in progress. I have gotten it to $900 in practice and getting paid $1005 per hit at that level is interesting to say the least, considering that you started at $30 and crept up there. It is a lot of 6 and 8 hits, yes, but on a monster, you can get there.

To answer the Q about the 4 and 10...and all the numbers. Each number presses individually. I've had rolls where the 9 never hits at all, but the 5 gets up to $300. My theory is to get the box covered so that hot numbers will find the money. The reason I collect and press with the 4 and 10, rather than inching them up is that they hit less often and they pay more when they double. Even if you are great with a V2, you are still going to hit more 6s and 8s than 4s. And, 6s and 8s are secondary hits with the V2, BTW. For me, the 6 and 8 are the money makers.

As a DI, I am experimenting with a single regression strategy in an attempt to get the initial 7 risk eliminated right away, so I can collect like mad on a hot roll anchored by green chip 6 and 8s. Sometimes, the 6 or 8 hit within 5 rolls and you 7 out right after that. No matter. You aren't down much once you get $130 back in your rack.

With all regression methods, you are going to get your testicles clipped by the ugly beeatch now and then, but it can be overcome with patience. You sure better not chase a bad regression hit. The only thing I might do is run the count out to 7 rather than 5 and/or try for two hits if I get an early one before the 7 count completes. Sometimes happens. If you get to 7 rolls and nothing hits, take $60 off the table and play catch up with the $30 6 and 8.

Like I said, I'm going to see how often I hit a 6 or 8 within 5 rolls and how often I 7 out before that.

Luck to everybody. We all need that.

Keep On Rollin'

Alamo

Thanks Alamo

How do you bet the inside number if it is the point ?

For what its worth, I have some numbers from wargaming this system on 2 books of rolls. I made a couple of changes though. I worked on the CO and I placed the 4 and 10 ($10 each) once I hit a 6 or 8 . So the $70 payment ended up being a $50 rack and adding $10 4 & 10. The first 4 or 10 that hit, got pressed to $20 and $15. After that, each 4 & 10 was pressed individually. Any time I got wacked in the middle of a hand with a CO7, I went back up for $30 on the 6/8 and $10 on the 5/9.

Book #41- SRR of 7.20 I won a total net of $2153, and I won $3910 by WOTCO. Wow! There's a case for WOTCO. I would have actually lost money without it. That's pretty powerful info.

Book #40- SRR of 5.34 I lost my betting totals darn it, but it was more than a $2K loss on the net and around $1500 loss on WOTCO.

If I was going to use a regression system, I would try going heavier on the 5 and 9, making my regression after the first hit of any box number. These numbers suggest pulling everything off after the first paying hit, but I would want to have it out there for at least 1 more hit.

I don't like regression systems, so I am going to try the system operator is using next. I believe it is from VDC and outlined in the betting systems thread. Essentially, you bet the 6 & 8 easy and hard. Every easy hit gets pressed by $6 and the rest of the payment goes to the HW replacement. When you hit the hway, separate the total payment into thirds. Press the easy way 1/3, rack 1/3, press the hway 1/3. You only get to rack a payment when you throw Hways. I'm guessing this is a fun homerun strategy, but don't have a clue if it will be profitable for me. Depends on the frequency of the Hways.