Compare two strategies for a Don't player

[AtGame7]

I can do the math and calculate house edge, but there is more to finding a strategy that fits your style/bankroll/loss limit than just that. If JUST the house edge were all that mattered then a don't pass with max odds is all we would ever play, right?

I'm comfortable with a minimum don't pass line bet (which is usually $10 but sometimes $5) and max odds against. Pretty straightforward. Odds are 10x where I play. I feel like my night is made or broken based on how many times I win my DP against the 4 and 10. Laying $200 to win $100 is great as a 2-1 favorite, except when you lose. I also feel like I get crushed on the frontline with a come out 7/11. When the min bet is $10 those can add up over the course of an evening that can last 10 hours for me.


I have toyed with a doey/don't and just played odds and I'm not gonna lie, I don't hate that play even though I know it's better mathematically to just take my lumps on the frontline 7/11.

I'm wondering if simply picking the 4 or 10 and laying it every time and paying the 5% juice is an alternative to even playing the line at all. I always get the number I want, I don't have to lay against the 6/8 (yea I know I don't ever have to, but I'm not one of those guys that picks up his bet when it lands on 6/8) and paying $5 each time I win is probably less expensive than all those $10 line bets swept in by the frontline looser.

Like I said earlier, if my night is going to be a winner/loser based on how well I do against the 4/10 why not cut to the chase and just start there?

Anyone?

[SHOOTITALL]

I have toyed with a doey/don't and just played odds

I saw a guy that was playing this just for the 4 and 10. All other numbers he ignored but when the doey dont hit the four or ten, he did lay heavy odds. He did great except for one streak where he got killed but the rest of the time not too bad. He playing like a nickle with $200+ odds. I will try and find it in and old tr and send it to you.
Found that TR from Sept 2012: Now, I also figured out why the doey-don't: He was avoiding the vig on the lay bets.

What makes this hand memorable is a fellow don't bettor who was up probably $6-7 thousand or so. I still have not figured out what the hell he was doing.
He was playing a doey-don't for $5, $10, $15 and $25. For no discernible reason as to which he would play. What is strange here he never took odds or layed odds on those results. He did this for several hours. He only layed odds when the four or the ten was the point. I honestly do not know what those other bets were for or about. This was a 100 times odds table, so he layed heavy odds on that four or ten but never both. This helicopter shooter cleaned his clock. He must have dropped $4-5 grand chasing here. Once he had $3000 layed on the four. About 6-8 rolls later he reduced them to two grand, then reduced them again several rolls later, then lost this bet. Didn't seem to bother him as here he came again with the same way. About as weird as I have ever seen. After this shooter, then he was STILL playing that odd doey don''t and if a four did not show after maybe 8-10 rolls, he would then just lay the four for a grand, sometimes the ten, and after each additional roll increase his lay by $200 and build it up.
As mentioned, best I could figure, he was just wanting to doey-don't the four or ten and the bet sizes were to be able to lay heavier odds. I have no idea why he messed with the doey-don't except for the action. Made absolutely no sense to me unless he could only lay the heavy odds when he had a don't bet. Maybe there was a limit to a straight lay bet and he wanted more action.
Well, that is enough of last night. I will continue this after I have a sesson or three today. Got to get their $18 bucks back. Did I mention that I did not shoot one time? Nope, too far out of position and SL1 or SR1 never were open. If someone left, a player moved down or it was immediately filled with fresh gist for the mill. Oh, yea, this bettor never shot the dice either. sia

[Golfer]

My countermeasures are similar to Obie1's. If the 11 is showing, size a yo bet to cover. If you want to get technical, add the same amount to your flat DP.

If the 7 is showing I will either hop the red for 50-100% of the flat, or size a lay bet on the inside numbers that I feel are not showing. My favorite is the 6 or 8. The lowest cost to win ration. Never the 4 or 10. In all my years playing craps people who crash and burn often are lay bettors on the 4 and 10.

If the above doesn't work, change tables, go play slots or head home. The tide usually turns.

Good luck

Golfer

[$5Bill]

Never the 4 or 10. In all my years playing craps people who crash and burn often are lay bettors on the 4 and 10.

I think Golfer is talking about me. In the beginning, I used to do that. I do not do that anymore.

$5Bill

[heavy]

I don't sweat the come-out sevens or elevens as long as my DP bet is $30 or less.

I like the Grafstein rules when it comes to playing the Don'ts. Give the shooter one crack at at your money on the come out. If he knocks you off on the come out - no problem. Just sit out the rest of his hand and wait for the next shooter.

I've lost a lot of money laying the four and ten through the years. Then again, I've made a lot of money laying the four and ten through the years. In the end it's probably close to a wash. What kills you is that bankroll volatility in a single session. And if THAT is a problem for you then you should not be laying that much in odds.

Personally, I'd rather go with Don't Come bets - and load up three to five of them - with $30 or $60 odds each as opposed to having a single number with $200 odds. At least that way I don't get knocked off the entire $200 plus at one fell swoop.

At the end of the day it comes down to risk tolerance and personal preference. You have to find what works for you and go from there.

[advdel77]

i have tried many dont strategies, but have had success playing $5 or $10 dp lay $30 odds place continuous dc bets with $30 odds until 7-out. i use Heavy's method of 2 or 3 pick offs then remove odds and let things play out. sometimes i will play $15 dp and $10 dc and not lay any odds to get a feel for the table and shooters. there is a you tube video of Michael Shakleford and Angela Wyman playing the dp and dc laying $30 odds. it looks like they are losing until you write down their bets and see they come out winners. advdel77

[London Shooter]

Cheers adv - that Shakleford video is a decent introduction I reckon for anybody new to DP and DC.

Linked here if anybody else wants to watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUDNcvuGE_8

What I would say though is that doing DP/DC and laying $30 in odds each time, as demonstrated on the video is going to be a very volatile play, so make sure you have enough bullets to play this way as you'll need to stick to the plan in the long run to give it a proper chance.

[Dylanfreake]

London Shooter is right about volatility on making perpetual dont bets. To play that way , one needs a huge bankroll and a stop loss key.

Since the first of the year, I have been playing a DP laying five times odds on a $5 table and laying two times odds on a $10 table. Both are ~ $30 average bets. If I lose a DP wager to a point being made , I make no other bet until the next shooter. I have been putting killed DP wagers by naturals back up.

Playing this way is great when there are a lot of points not being made . If points are made it is devastating. But it is not a bad way to play when the table is choppy.

My session loss limit is about 3% of my Total Gambling Bankroll.

I guess you could say that my goal is to preserve my Total Gambling Bankroll. I like to win but I like breaking even also.

[London Shooter]

Good to have such feedback Dylan. How many times have you hit your session loss limit with this play?

[Dylanfreake]

Since the first of the year , I have played 24 sessions (15 winning, 9 losing) and hit my loss limit four times. Right now I am at + $314. So I am a little ahead of my goal of $000.

I have played quite a bit since the first of the year because Gail has played in a lot of slot tournaments in Tunica and we took a quickie three night trip to Lost Vegas last week.

[London Shooter]

Thanks for the update Dylan. Gives me a good real life feel for what the volatility of such a play is like.

[amish dude]

Cheers adv - that Shakleford video is a decent introduction I reckon for anybody new to DP and DC.

Linked here if anybody else wants to watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUDNcvuGE_8

What I would say though is that doing DP/DC and laying $30 in odds each time, as demonstrated on the video is going to be a very volatile play, so make sure you have enough bullets to play this way as you'll need to stick to the plan in the long run to give it a proper chance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUDNcvuGE_8
Angela has a nice rack almost as nice as my lady friend !

[Golfer]

Red dress. When was he gonna teach her to "Hop the Rack"? I mean Hop the Red.

[heavy]

Did someone say red head?

[Americraps]

Yeah, I wish she would throw the dice harder, and then show it in ultra slow motion....

[bryfromtheharbor]

i have tried many dont strategies, but have had success playing $5 or $10 dp lay $30 odds place continuous dc bets with $30 odds until 7-out. i use Heavy's method of 2 or 3 pick offs then remove odds and let things play out. sometimes i will play $15 dp and $10 dc and not lay any odds to get a feel for the table and shooters. there is a you tube video of Michael Shakleford and Angela Wyman playing the dp and dc laying $30 odds. it looks like they are losing until you write down their bets and see they come out winners. advdel77

I like that as good as any. If things start going south just back off.

[heavy]

You guys pick on her all you want. She's a former dealer-tainer at one of the Vegas properties, one of my FaceBook friends and a recent (last year) newlywed. She is extremely active in the shooting (guns, not dice) community and makes frequent appearances (paid) at gun shows in the Vegas area. I'd be cautious about making myself a target.

[al_falcons]

I like the chips in the rack, or just the rack, I am confused, what were we talking about? Don't make a pass at the woman with the rack?